2025 NHL Draft: Lose a ton for Porter Martone

[Lebanezer]

I'll give you Toffoli over Caufield but I don't agree with the rest. Suzuki is a legit low-end 1C whom I like a lot and would comfortably take over two Granlunds. I like Celebrini/Smith/Eklund over Slafkovsky/Dach/Newhook long-term, obviously, but I don't think they're better next season. And even if they don't have a legit top pairing, they at least have several top-4 guys between Matheson, Guhle, and maybe even Hutson. We have maaaybe one top-4 guy in Walman and that's not for sure.

Montreal had like twenty more points in the standings than us last year and that was with Guhle and Dach out the whole season.

What are your expectations from Celebrini this season? It seems like, not directed at you, that a lot of people view the strength of his all around game as a detriment to his production.

 

[Star Platinum]

What are your expectations from Celebrini this season? It seems like, not directed at you, that a lot of people view the strength of his all around game as a detriment to his production.

The only thing I consider detriments to his production are his youth and the quality of the people he has to pass to. The only person on the roster that is close to his skill level has the same challenges. The other Lunds and Toffoli have varying levels of skill and experience to help them, but this is still one of the weakest forward groups in the league and the defense we already know about. If Celebrini or Smith actually become serious threats for the Calder this year, we should be metaphorically be turning cartwheels.

 

[Lebanezer]

The only thing I consider detriments to his production are his youth and the quality of the people he has to pass to. The only person on the roster that is close to his skill level has the same challenges. The other Lunds and Toffoli have varying levels of skill and experience to help them, but this is still one of the weakest forward groups in the league and the defense we already know about. If Celebrini or Smith actually become serious threats for the Calder this year, we should be metaphorically be turning cartwheels.

I'm not actually worried about Celebrini or his production, and I do think he'll be in the discussion for the Calder. I think Celebrini will be directly responsible for a huge portion of the offensive chances the Sharks generate. I will do literal cartwheels regardless.

 

[Juxtaposer]

What are your expectations from Celebrini this season? It seems like, not directed at you, that a lot of people view the strength of his all around game as a detriment to his production.

My expectation for Mack is something like 55 points with the bulk of it (>50%) coming on the PP. Partially because of the general weakness of this team and lack of puck movers and possession players on defense, partially because it's just freaking hard to score at even strength as a rookie, and partially because Celebrini has never cheated for offense a day in his life.

I would love to be wrong and he puts up 70 points, but I'd rather be conservative for now.

 

[Star Platinum]

I think Celebrini will be directly responsible for a huge portion of the offensive chances the Sharks generate.

I agree

 

[hohosaregood]

Celebrini's probably gonna be like one of those guys who hang out around an 55% xGA% and scoring like 50 points.

 

[CupfortheSharks]

My expectation for Mack is something like 55 points with the bulk of it (>50%) coming on the PP. Partially because of the general weakness of this team and lack of puck movers and possession players on defense, partially because it's just freaking hard to score at even strength as a rookie, and partially because Celebrini has never cheated for offense a day in his life.

I would love to be wrong and he puts up 70 points, but I'd rather be conservative for now.

Yesterday, in Vegas, I put a bet on Celebrini over 52.5 points for the season.

 

[Lebanezer]

Yesterday, in Vegas, I put a bet on Celebrini over 52.5 points for the season.

Easy money.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Yesterday, in Vegas, I put a bet on Celebrini over 52.5 points for the season.

I think that's a smart one if he stays healthy.

 

[Shark Finn]

Yesterday, in Vegas, I put a bet on Celebrini over 52.5 points for the season.

The guy is going to score 52 points and miss an empty netter on the dying seconds of game 82.

 

[StanleyCup2035]

The guy is going to score 52 points and miss an empty netter on the dying seconds of game 82.

...securing the Sharks's last place finish and, thus, a Top 3 lottery pick

 

[Saskatoon]

Yesterday, in Vegas, I put a bet on Celebrini over 52.5 points for the season.

So you are why he got injured last night

 

[Grinner]

So you are why he got injured last night

 

[JotAlan]

I also prefer Celebrini to Hagens as a franchise level piece, I was just curious why you felt that way. Hagens is certainly no slouch defensively.

If Hagens were a few months younger he would be second overall in the 2024 draft. But as far as talent goes I'd say they are a 1A/1B.
If I were to choose for the floor I would go with Celebrini, for the ceiling I would go with Hagens. Overall, imo, they are franchise talents and in their primes will be very close players. I would be insanely thrilled if the Sharks won the lottery, had the nerve to draft Hagens, and we had arguably the best 1-2 punch center in the league for 10 years.

 

[Star Platinum]

If Hagens were a few months younger he would be second overall in the 2024 draft. But as far as talent goes I'd say they are a 1A/1B.
If I were to choose for the floor I would go with Celebrini, for the ceiling I would go with Hagens. Overall, imo, they are franchise talents and in their primes will be very close players. I would be insanely thrilled if the Sharks won the lottery, had the nerve to draft Hagens, and we had arguably the best 1-2 punch center in the league for 10 years.

Yeah, anyone who thinks we are so set at center that we couldn't use another franchise center on the team is nuts. We have very little forward talent. Any elite offensive talent that's out there is more than welcome on this team and we'll move things around as necessary.

 

[Juxtaposer]

If Hagens were a few months younger he would be second overall in the 2024 draft. But as far as talent goes I'd say they are a 1A/1B.
If I were to choose for the floor I would go with Celebrini, for the ceiling I would go with Hagens. Overall, imo, they are franchise talents and in their primes will be very close players. I would be insanely thrilled if the Sharks won the lottery, had the nerve to draft Hagens, and we had arguably the best 1-2 punch center in the league for 10 years.

When you say "ceiling", do you mean scoring totals or impact on the game?

I think it's fair to say that Hagens has slightly higher offensive potential than Celebrini, but I wouldn't say his "ceiling" is higher because I think Celebrini has legitimate Selke potential and Hagens will be solid but not elite defensively. I think Hagens will stick at center because he's smart and crafty, but it's really hard for 5'10" guys to stick at C.

He's also going to have to score a ton and perform at the WJC to stay at 1st overall. Porter Martone is so f***ing good.

 

[JotAlan]

When you say "ceiling", do you mean scoring totals or impact on the game?

I think it's fair to say that Hagens has slightly higher offensive potential than Celebrini, but I wouldn't say his "ceiling" is higher because I think Celebrini has legitimate Selke potential and Hagens will be solid but not elite defensively. I think Hagens will stick at center because he's smart and crafty, but it's really hard for 5'10" guys to stick at C.

He's also going to have to score a ton and perform at the WJC to stay at 1st overall. Porter Martone is so f***ing good.

Score totals and overall play. I agree that Hagens will be a little better offensively, but I disagree that he will be much worse defensively, as James will be similar to Point defensively.
Martone is really good and his combination of size and skill makes GMs salivate. But if Hagens isn't number 1, whoever passes him up will regret it in the long run. He is more skilled, has a better overall game and plays in a more difficult position, the only "shortcoming" is his height.
I would be surprised if he wasn't the first pick and I only see Martone passing Hagens if Porter has a monster season while James has a bad season, which I doubt as I believe he will be a Hobey Baker finalist.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Score totals and overall play. I agree that Hagens will be a little better offensively, but I disagree that he will be much worse defensively, as James will be similar to Point defensively.
Martone is really good and his combination of size and skill makes GMs salivate. But if Hagens isn't number 1, whoever passes him up will regret it in the long run. He is more skilled, has a better overall game and plays in a more difficult position, the only "shortcoming" is his height.
I would be surprised if he wasn't the first pick and I only see Martone passing Hagens if Porter has a monster season while James has a bad season, which I doubt as I believe he will be a Hobey Baker finalist.

I think we'll have to agree to disagree on Hagens' defensive capabilities for now. I absolutely think he's an above average defensive player but Brayden Point, who is probably a top-5 defensive center, is a step too far for me.

 

[coooldude]

I have no idea what's going to happen this season and where the top 5 will shake out, but what I want to happen, is for Martone, Schaefer, or McQueen to blow people away so that they are in the 1OA convo. And in that order I'd rather pick those guys (emotionally) than Hagens, because in that world, each of them brings something that none of our other prospects bring right now. Martone has the look of a dominant Rantanen-esque PF, McQueen has the size and skill of a Byfield or Hintz kinda, and Schaefer is a step or more above Dickinson.

Hagens is in pole position and the likelihood is he'll have a great season and be in the 1OA convo, and he is on track to be an incredible franchise cornerstone, but he doesn't bring a very different profile as kind of a blend between Celebrini and Smith. So if we pick him, now we have 3 <6'0" centers who bring different flavors of the same 1C game. Even with one on a wing it doesn't feel as good a situation as if we have another top prospect who brings something entirely different.

I'm not saying we shouldn't pick Hagens if we get 1OA and he's the clearly best player next June, but I am saying my emotions are rooting for the other prospects more.

 

[Saskatoon]

Remember we got lucky to Celebrini

Even if we are last odds are we drop

 

[Juxtaposer]

I have no idea what's going to happen this season and where the top 5 will shake out, but what I want to happen, is for Martone, Schaefer, or McQueen to blow people away so that they are in the 1OA convo. And in that order I'd rather pick those guys (emotionally) than Hagens, because in that world, each of them brings something that none of our other prospects bring right now. Martone has the look of a dominant Rantanen-esque PF, McQueen has the size and skill of a Byfield or Hintz kinda, and Schaefer is a step or more above Dickinson.

Hagens is in pole position and the likelihood is he'll have a great season and be in the 1OA convo, and he is on track to be an incredible franchise cornerstone, but he doesn't bring a very different profile as kind of a blend between Celebrini and Smith. So if we pick him, now we have 3 <6'0" centers who bring different flavors of the same 1C game. Even with one on a wing it doesn't feel as good a situation as if we have another top prospect who brings something entirely different.

I'm not saying we shouldn't pick Hagens if we get 1OA and he's the clearly best player next June, but I am saying my emotions are rooting for the other prospects more.

Totally agree. If Hagens is the clear BPA then I'm all for him. But I'm rooting for other guys (especially Martone and Schaefer) to make it not clear.

 

[gaucholoco3]

Totally agree. If Hagens is the clear BPA then I'm all for him. But I'm rooting for other guys (especially Martone and Schaefer) to make it not clear.

I’m the opposite. Given the odds it is more likely than not that we won’t be picking 1st. So that means he will be picked first and better fits will drop to the Sharks. In the world Hagens is the clear number 1 and Sharks do win the lottery they could potentially get a random from some of the likely top 5 teams that have multiple 1sts.

 

[weastern bias]

I don't follow prospects closely enough to make any hard and fast claims about the upcoming draft

However, I'm going to shoot my shot and say we're finishing 32nd in the standings again this year and will be picking top-3 as a result

 

[PattyLafontaine]

I don't follow prospects closely enough to make any hard and fast claims about the upcoming draft

However, I'm going to shoot my shot and say we're finishing 32nd in the standings again this year and will be picking top-3 as a result

It's also early/ Hagens is talented but I agree with Jux that his defense is not great. It's not bad, bny any means, but he's not a future Selke finalist.

It would be typical, Sharks where they pick #1 take Hagens even though there are prospects who have a higher ceiling, but much less likely to reach their ceiling.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I’m the opposite. Given the odds it is more likely than not that we won’t be picking 1st. So that means he will be picked first and better fits will drop to the Sharks. In the world Hagens is the clear number 1 and Sharks do win the lottery they could potentially get a random from some of the likely top 5 teams that have multiple 1sts.

If you get James Hagens 3rd overall you're laughing IMO. I'm really happy with any of those three players.