OT: 2024 Washington Commanders thread: change we can believe in!

[usiel]

Wow Lamar Jackson is only 6’2, 215….thought he was bigger….

…and people are worried about JD @ 6’4 210? We know they can put 10-15lbs on him pretty quickly at the NFL level….then he’s a horse.

Wait really? He looks so much bigger on TV.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Fair. But it cuts both ways. Nabers doesn't rack (ahem) up the RAC yards if his QB doesn't put him in position to catch in stride or turn and go. Thomas doesn't become a TD machine if his QB isn't putting the ball where he can make the field stretching plays. Who did DM -- or CW, for that matter -- make better?

And LSU's line this year was not the typical LSU line, at all. There's one guy who should be a high pick if he comes out next year, if not, definitely the year after. Otherwise, they're all late round fliers.

All of this talk with their WR’s (both of which will be first round picks — pretty sick!! — is awfully important.

We are chicken and egging it here w JD and his receivers. The QB protagonists of the group thing he did it for them.

Opposite of that, is they did it for him. Many receivers give their QB’s terrific numbers. Sure, YAC can be due to the QB, but it’s just as likely because the WR ran such a wonderful route that it was an easy throw. Hitting very open players isn’t that hard.

Those WR’s at LSU knew how to get open.

Chicken vs Egg here, for sure.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Wait really? He looks so much bigger on TV.

According to the Interwebs….….

 

[usiel]

See Trotter? That’s the guy I want.

He looked good. Cooper as well.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

So if I’m taking score of all the various complaints here….the rallying cries against JD are:

-He’s too thin, will get broken
-LSU talented roster made him look good
-too experienced

DM:

-regressed in season 2
-happy feet and inaccuracy under pressure

CW:

-Nutter Father
-paints his nails


What did I miss?

 

[RedRocking]

Nah, his dad is his agent and he doesn't know any of the rules of the NFL. Its guaranteed to be a circus, a distraction, and take away the focus from where it belongs. The medical thing is less of an issue, the players have complained for a while about it an if CW is leading the charge to fix a broken system, then thats fine.

But man, I would stay far away from his dad. Makes Lavar Ball look like Drew Rosenhaus.

This angling to get around the CBA rookie salary isn’t a new thing. It was already reported when he declined to hire an agent.

The reason he didn’t hire an agent is because Papa Williams couldn’t find one that could tell him a way around the CBA (because it’s impossible; there are no loop holes). It’s also why the ownership stake nonsense came up.

So they said f*** it, no point in an agent if there’s nothing they can do to change his slotting. And bitched that Caleb will be underpaid for 5 years. I agree, it’s completely ridiculous, and disrespectful to the league. But this didn’t just happen today.

Unfortunately, his Dad’s machinations make it feel like all they (or maybe just him) care about is building a brand and getting paid. I don’t love that either. The goal should be to work towards being a good NFL player; your second contract (if you’re so lucky) will then take care of itself. Hard to say if Caleb shares any/all of these views, hopefully for his sake he can detach from his Dad eventually (like Lonzo Ball) and just focus on playing.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

This angling to get around the CBA rookie salary isn’t a new thing. It was already reported when he declined to hire an agent.

The reason he didn’t hire an agent is because Papa Williams couldn’t find one that could tell him a way around the CBA (because it’s impossible; there are no loop holes). It’s also why the ownership stake nonsense came up.

So they said f*** it, no point in an agent if there’s nothing they can do to change his slotting. And bitched that Caleb will be underpaid for 5 years. I agree, it’s completely ridiculous, and disrespectful to the league. But this didn’t just happen today.

Unfortunately, his Dad’s machinations make it feel like all they (or maybe just him) care about is building a brand and getting paid. I don’t love that either. The goal should be to work towards being a good NFL player; your second contract (if you’re so lucky) will then take care of itself. Hard to say if Caleb shares any/all of these views, hopefully for his sake he can detach from his Dad eventually (like Lonzo Ball) and just focus on playing.

Pretty crazy that he’s taking a pay cut from college for his first 4 NFL years lol….(he really won’t in total comp, but as compared to his NFL salary)…..

 

[RedRocking]

Pretty crazy that he’s taking a pay cut from college for his first 4 NFL years lol….

I know, right. They estimate he made north of 10M already. In that sense, his Dad did right by him. We are in a strange new NIL world, and people are trying to challenge conventions and disrupt the system.

 

[RedRocking]

All of this talk with their WR’s (both of which will be first round picks — pretty sick!! — is awfully important.

We are chicken and egging it here w JD and his receivers. The QB protagonists of the group thing he did it for them.

Opposite of that, is they did it for him. Many receivers give their QB’s terrific numbers. Sure, YAC can be due to the QB, but it’s just as likely because the WR ran such a wonderful route that it was an easy throw. Hitting very open players isn’t that hard.

Those WR’s at LSU knew how to get open.

Chicken vs Egg here, for sure.

Also, why did JD have a mediocre 2022 season with these same weapons? And why were a lot of LSU fans clamoring for the other kid to start at QB at the beginning of the ‘23 season?

For all the knocks on DM, he broke out in his first year starting, at a much younger age. If people haven’t already - watch some of DM’s tape from 2022. He is much more decisive, has actual receivers to throw to, and has some great runs.

I’ve been watching a lot of JD tape, and boy does he have a lot of time behind that Joe Moore Award finalist O-line. And some of those holes he’s flying through are akin to the Hogs leading the way for Timmy Smith in the SB against Denver.

Still, JD made the plays that were there in an efficient and, at times, spectacular fashion. Can’t take any of that away from him. Just wonder how DM would fared if he stayed committed to Alabama, rather than playing in a constantly collapsing pocket at UNC.

Valuing one college season too much (either way) worries me.

 

[kicksavedave]

So if I’m taking score of all the various complaints here….the rallying cries against JD are:

-He’s too thin, will get broken
-LSU talented roster made him look good
-too experienced

DM:

-regressed in season 2
-happy feet and inaccuracy under pressure

CW:

-Nutter Father
-paints his nails


What did I miss?

This guy is funny, but he details them all pretty well.

 

[usiel]

I know, right. They estimate he made north of 10M already. In that sense, his Dad did right by him. We are in a strange new NIL world, and people are trying to challenge conventions and disrupt the system.

Well I'd hope he'd then be more involved in the NFLPA in the next future CBA negotiations. Easy prediction not much sympathy for the rookie contract rules will ever be a major priority. Gotta prove it and earn it.

 

[usiel]

Also, why did JD have a mediocre 2022 season with these same weapons? And why were a lot of LSU fans clamoring for the other kid to start at QB at the beginning of the ‘23 season?

For all the knocks on DM, he broke out in his first year starting, at a much younger age. If people haven’t already - watch some of DM’s tape from 2022. He is much more decisive, has actual receivers to throw to, and has some great runs.

I’ve been watching a lot of JD tape, and boy does he have a lot of time behind that Joe Moore Award finalist O-line. And some of those holes he’s flying through are akin to the Hogs leading the way for Timmy Smith in the SB against Denver.

Still, JD made the plays that were there in an efficient and, at times, spectacular fashion. Can’t take any of that away from him. Just wonder how DM would fared if he stayed committed to Alabama, rather than playing in a constantly collapsing pocket at UNC.

Valuing one college season too much (either way) worries me.

There are some interviews with the LSU coach regarding that and basically he was like JD was wanting the see the opening versus letting it rip and trusting the timing/route versus having to confirm it with his eyes (overly concerned with INTs). 2023 was letting it rip.

 

[Jags]

JD made good decisions and big time throws at a far higher rate than DM and CW did

And some argue that he did that by staying another year and unnecessarily mastering an irrelevant game. He had an amazing year, but achieving God Mode in college football with the best personnel around you means exactly dick in the NFL.

To be fair, he *did* show some pro maturity this year, looking throws open, making good reads and trusting them by throwing before the receiver comes open, and so on. There's some pro-style this and pro-level that going on for sure, but you see those same types of things from the other two guys with half the starts looking to mature relevantly into the NFL game, not potentially overripening in college.

You do know that height and weight and the ratio between them have almost nothing at all to do with NFL durability, right? Bigger, thicker QBs get hurt all the time. Skinny toothpick WRs and DBs stay healthy all the time. There's just no direct correlation.

There's no direct correlation if you look at it that myopically. Of course there's no chart where if you are this height and this weight you're going to get catastrophically injured. No one is saying that.

But if someone has an ectomorphic build that stands 6'4" and is generously listed at 210 lbs. and uses that litheness and speed to run a lot, that is a combination of factors that does directly correlate to trouble.

The argument you're making is basically, "Those types of NFL injuries are like lightning strikes that could happen to anyone, anywhere, at any time. Just because MY guy has wrapped himself in copper and is running around in an electric storm shouting 'You don't have the balls to smite me!' at Zeus, doesn't mean he's any more likely to get struck than anyone else."

Ian Rappaport just said on NFL Network he has heard that the Commanders and Patriots are already receiving calls from teams who want to trade up for a QB.

Daniel said Maye would be great in a situation where he could sit and learn for a year or two to make up for his lack of experience.

Just like I trust our new staff to make the right call between Maye and Daniels, I'd also trust them if they took a haul, traded back, and chose another QB. I saw a mock the other day that had them trade back with Denver to 12, then up to 10 to take McCarthy. A lot of people are high on Rattler, too.

Trading back and taking something other than a QB would worry me. I'm not so high on Howell's potential that I think we shouldn't use this opportunity to shore up the most important position, but I wouldn't be heartbroken IF our staff really likes another QB deeper in the draft. To be clear, it would take a HAUL of a trade to make me feel okay about it; a no-brainer type deal.

I do think we might be overlooking how bad EB was for Sam Howell this year...

* He threw 21 picks, but 141 other QBs have done that. Of those guys, he ranked 7th in pass attempts and had the third lowest interception percentage. The other two guys were Moon and Brees.​

​

* Of those top 7 in attempts, only Howell was a first-year starter.​

​

* QBs have only thrown that much in a season 55 times ever. 55 total seasons, not 55 players. It's extremely rare, even in today's "passing era."​

​

* That list of guys includes Brady, both Mannings, Roethlisberger, Stafford, Ryan, Flacco, Mahomes, Favre, and Brees. All Super Bowl contenders, and none of them threw that many as first-year starters. Not something you should be asking Howell to do, in other words.​

​

* The only other guy asked to throw that much in his first year was Andrew Luck, who might be the most pro-ready prospect in NFL history. Luck threw a couple more TDs and a couple less picks, but also completed 54.1% of those passes compared to Howell's 63.4%. (This is just for perspective. Definitely NOT saying Howell is comparable to Luck.)​

​

* When it's argued that Howell was asked to do too much, many bring up Purdy and the burden he had to shoulder. Purdy's never thrown more than 37 in a game. Howell once threw 52, and threw 37 or more 9 times in just 18 starts.​

We have something in Howell. So we take a stud at #2 and keep Howell as insurance like Cousins was for Griffin, or trade him if there's an offer we shouldn't refuse. I think we all agree that's probably the best plan.

But trading back isn't crazy. It wouldn't necessarily be the total capitulation some say it would be.

 

[usiel]

RE: Howell my eternal hindsight will be what if he had an NFL average offensive line throughout the season...

 

[Jags]

RE: Howell my eternal hindsight will be what if he had an NFL average offensive line throughout the season...

And an OC that'll utilize the 3 good running backs we have, or call plays that better suited the personnel and their strengths while minimizing weaknesses and things that aren't working.

Where was the offensive staff on helping him with his pre-snap struggles? Why not get the calls in faster to give him more time at the line? Or call different plays to help him out?

He was thrown to the wolves and still managed to show a helluva lot more than any other QB losing their job this year.

 

[RedRocking]

There are some interviews with the LSU coach regarding that and basically he was like JD was wanting the see the opening versus letting it rip and trusting the timing/route versus having to confirm it with his eyes (overly concerned with INTs). 2023 was letting it rip.

Ok, thanks, that’s interesting. Though essentially that means - after starting for 4 years, he still didn’t know how (or was scared?) to throw with anticipation, even with these incredible WRs.

He then starts Year 5, with a tenuous hold on the starting job, and is projected as a Day 3 pick. To his credit, he works hard in the offseason and comes in more comfortable at LSU. Then he has this magical season throwing to elite WRs that are open because most secondaries can’t even begin to match up.

Forgive my late night snarky tone, lol. But a 5th year breakout season on a stacked offense is worrisome. Overvaluing one year (either way) concerns me. CW and DM, at younger ages, have 2 years of QB play worthy of a top 5 pick. And they did it on teams where they had little help.

 

[usiel]

Ok, thanks, that’s interesting. Though essentially that means - after starting for 4 years, he still didn’t know how (or was scared?) to throw with anticipation, even with these incredible WRs.

He then starts Year 5, with a tenuous hold on the starting job, and is projected as a Day 3 pick. To his credit, he works hard in the offseason and comes in more comfortable at LSU. Then he has this magical season throwing to elite WRs that are open because most secondaries can’t even begin to match up.

Forgive my late night snarky tone, lol. But a 5th year breakout season on a stacked offense is worrisome. Overvaluing one year (either way) concerns me. CW and DM, at younger ages, have 2 years of QB play worthy of a top 5 pick. And they did it on teams where they had little help.

Late night snark is totally acceptable.

Here is the thing. All three top QB prospect have gremlins. All the dark imaginings its a thang. Lets look at the coaching staff and their ability to iron out all three QB prospect negs. I feel pretty good with the coaching staff here when it comes to iron out the negs for these potential QBs.

 

[Jags]

CW and DM, at younger ages, have 2 years of QB play worthy of a top 5 pick.

And do we think that with better weapons, a consistent offense, and 2 more years of starting that Maye might put up a similar season?

This is a big part of what's interesting about how NIL is changing the game; that it's worth it for some of these guys now to stick around in college and improve their draft positions.

Daniels did that. Maye doesn't have to (not because he's so great, but because he's already projected to be a top pick).

@ynotcaps is right that, to a degree, JD vs. DM is about expectation vs. projection. It's just not nearly that simple, because that projection comes from the people that know what they're talking about. Like you just said about throwing with anticipation, with DM most of them are comfortable saying that he's on par with Daniels as a prospect with such certainty that they're throwing their "pass" 2 years early.

And they're wrong with a real frequency, but it's roughly the same frequency that "proven prospects" like Daniels also don't pan out.

I feel pretty good with the coaching staff here when it comes to iron out the negs for these potential QBs.

Me too. It's also why I keep stressing humility when it comes to both of these guys, and why Williams being anointed so early is possibly causing these whispers about him being a potential egomaniac or headcase. I don't care about the contract demands and all that shit. I care about the guy knowing he'll have a lot to learn at the next level; that he ain't shit yet. You have to be humble for that.

So that's a big thing I'd be looking for when interviewing Daniels and Maye. They both have fixable issues, but so long as they have the humility to look inward and recognize that, I'm confident they can shore those things up.

 

[Ajax1995]

-too experienced

I don’t believe anyone is saying he is ‘too experienced,’ I don’t believe that is a thing in this type of situation, it’s just that the experience difference between him and the other two guys doesn’t really make it an apples to apples comparison.

Daniel’s improved significantly over his last two years. Logically the other two will also, IMO, though it certainly isn’t guaranteed.

I’ll say this, if the goal is to have the best QB of the 3 on the field next season I would take Daniels without a thought, chiefly because of that experience. But if the goal is to have the best guy in ~3 seasons I’m going with whichever of the other 2 is available at pick 2.

Bottom line is IMO there is a reasonable difference between 3 and 5 years of college experience and I believe evaluations need to 100% take that into account. Daniels didn’t enter the draft after his 3rd year for a reason.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

366-pound T'Vondre Sweat wowed fans with an unbelievably fast 40-yard dash at the 2024 NFL combine — For The Win

This was AMAZING!

apple.news

I don’t believe anyone is saying he is ‘too experienced,’ I don’t believe that is a thing in this type of situation, it’s just that the experience difference between him and the other two guys doesn’t really make it an apples to apples comparison.

Daniel’s improved significantly over his last two years. Logically the other two will also, IMO, though it certainly isn’t guaranteed.

I’ll say this, if the goal is to have the best QB of the 3 on the field next season I would take Daniels without a thought, chiefly because of that experience. But if the goal is to have the best guy in ~3 seasons I’m going with whichever of the other 2 is available at pick 2.

Bottom line is IMO there is a reasonable difference between 3 and 5 years of college experience and I believe evaluations need to 100% take that into account. Daniels didn’t enter the draft after his 3rd year for a reason.

The list is tongue in cheek….but his detractors are suggesting his experience is a negative in comparison….

I assume the Professionals will….but you still might not like who they pick.

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

McCarthy to sell Michigan wins in draft interviews

Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy says leading the Wolverines to 27 victories in his 28 career starts is a stat that he can use in his favor when talking to interested NFL teams.

www.espn.com

"You know, like, stats for me aren't really the big thing, and all I really cared about was being the best teammate I could be and being the best quarterback I could possibly be," McCarthy said Friday at the NFL scouting combine. "And the only stat I cared about was W's, and we did pretty good in that category."


Spin that JJ!

 

[ynotcaps]

Come on Dude. None of us *KNOW* anything. It’s all a guessing game. Odds for, vs odds against.

Daniels is a huge riser. He’s either gonna exceed expectations, or be a bust. I don’t think he’s got a Teddy Bridgewater, or Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston type of career in him.

He’s gonna be ALL THAT, or he gets broken due to his physique.

That’s really all it comes down to. Nothing else. If he stays healthy, and doesn’t become an RGMe shell type player, then he’s prob the best bet between DM and JD. I’m not so sure about JD and CW.

Both CW and DM have more prototypical NFL QB body’s (DM the most), so there is less risk there, no matter how hard we want to argue otherwise, no matter what college stat is thrown around. He’s a little leaner than most NFL players, and he plays a position of risk. So that’s a dangerous combo, as ALL Skins fans know, all too well.

So we will see. It’s a pretty volatile situation. However, the Skins are in a terrific position — as long as they don’t f*** it up.

No question none of "knows" anything -- my point was that the poster I was responding to was claiming JD supports were "projecting" a 5 year starter while he was stating -- as fact -- what the 2 year starter is going to be.

Of course we're all guessing/hoping, but the simple fact is there's 5 years worth of data on which to evaluate one player and 2 years on the other. So it's not valid to say that the 5-year case is a projection and the 2-year case is a given. That's it.

Nah, his dad is his agent and he doesn't know any of the rules of the NFL. Its guaranteed to be a circus, a distraction, and take away the focus from where it belongs. The medical thing is less of an issue, the players have complained for a while about it an if CW is leading the charge to fix a broken system, then thats fine.

But man, I would stay far away from his dad. Makes Lavar Ball look like Drew Rosenhaus.

I think this goes back to the note from yesterday (? they all run together) that he hasn't signed w/ an agency. CW really, REALLY needs an agent because this Richard Williams-style Dad-raptor shit is causing him lots of trouble and doing damage that a real professional wouldn't let happen.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

This guy is funny, but he details them all pretty well.

Great watch….

 

[ynotcaps]

According to the Interwebs….….

Yeah, I had the same reaction a while back when a high-profile politician's measurements were reported as being "the same as Lamar's."

(Lamar wears it better.)