OT: 2024 Washington Commanders thread: change we can believe in!

[Neil Racki]

NFL Player Team Report Cards 2024

nflpa.com

Hopefully these areas improve under ownership who doesnt penny pinch

The notion that Dan Snyder sPeNT mONey as an owner bc player contracts always rubbed my gouch with course sandpaper

kicksavedave ... where did you get those stat graphics? or should I not ask.

 

[Ajax1995]

Oh yeah, under pressure, JD threw ZERO interceptions. Maye threw 5, CW 4. So, as a percentage of their overall drop backs, JD is getting sacked less, throwing interceptions less (none), throwing the ball away less, and making Big Time throws more, than the other two guys. But yeah, he's terrible under pressure *rolleyes*

Take a close look at who had throwaways under pressure. Which one had 5, which one had 18 and which one had 22? Again, also compare that to their sacks under pressure and interceptions under pressure. I'll wait.

Any chance you can post the same info from Daniel’s last season at ASU?

Again, I expect a 5th year college starter to do a reasonable amount of things better than a 3rd year one. We know Daniels improved significantly and knowing exactly how much, statistically at least, would be informative IMO.

 

[ynotcaps]

Daniels vs Maye is really good study on modern QBs imo.

Maye is the more on schedule QB, pocket passer who can scramble and run when needed
Daniels is the more of the 1st read aint open, tuck it and run, can change sacks into 5-50 yard gains

I prefer the pocket passer who can scramble vs the 50% passer 50% runner

BUT as I learned with Heinike .. avoiding a sack is worth like .5 to 1.5 points on the scoreboard. Turning a 8 yard sack loss play into a 5 yard gain is huge. its a drive saver, you get what 8 drives a game.

Off schedule is now a big slice of the top QB pie chart. I gotta get used to that. Mahomes does it all. On schedule, off schedule.

I trust the brain trusts .. just take one of the 3 QBs, dont overthink this.

Please go back a page or so and watch either of the film breakdowns posted on him. Both guys go into him freezing safeties with his eyes, baiting zone defenders with pumps, and waiting for his 4th and even 5th read to come out of the backfield to hit them in the open flat with nobody near them because the coverage has moved deep.
He had 1200 yard rushing 10 TDs, yes -- but he is 100% NOT a "bail if the first read isn't open."

 

[ynotcaps]

NFL Player Team Report Cards 2024

nflpa.com

Hopefully these areas improve under ownership who doesnt penny pinch

The notion that Dan Snyder sPeNT mONey as an owner bc player contracts always rubbed my gouch with course sandpaper

kicksavedave ... where did you get those stat graphics? or should I not ask.

Yeah, he spent money, but he spent it collecting toys. "Hey, I spent on Bruce Smith, Deion Sanders and Adam Archuletta" -- yeah, when they were all well past their prime and useless as ***s on a bull.
One of the maddest moments I ever had listening to sports radio was hearing a recounting of how Portis or L. Coles or someone was reaching out to all his boys because Danny was shooting money like a ****ing Pez dispenser.
Shocking he could never build a winner, looking for guys who wanted to cash in more than ball out.
Mo*(*r-*u**er. (OK, it's possible the bitterness hasn't completely ebbed yet...)

 

[Neil Racki]

Please go back a page or so and watch either of the film breakdowns posted on him. Both guys go into him freezing safeties with his eyes, baiting zone defenders with pumps, and waiting for his 4th and even 5th read to come out of the backfield to hit them in the open flat with nobody near them because the coverage has moved deep.
He had 1200 yard rushing 10 TDs, yes -- but he is 100% NOT a "bail if the first read isn't open."

Even when looking at scramble rate instead of just raw data, Daniels has one of the highest numbers on record. His 14.1% scramble rate ranks third among the 196 qualifying quarterbacks since 2019, only below Liberty quarterbacks Malik Willis and Kaidon Salter, both players known for their poor pocket management and run-first styles.

Even the slightest amount of pressure will cause Daniels’ eyes to come down in the pocket and start looking for running lanes: only 50.6% of his pressured dropbacks resulted in a pass attempt, ranking 193rd out of 196 qualifying quarterbacks since 2019. If Daniels gets moved off of his launch point, he is looking to run; 25% of his pressured dropbacks resulted in a scramble! When Daniels escapes outside of the pocket? He looks to run. Daniels had 83 dropbacks where he ended up outside the pocket in 2023 and 36 of those dropbacks resulted in a scramble. That means 43.4% of the time Daniels left the pocket, he was scrambling.

^^ from Tice article

10% leave clean pocket pct

-----

Im fine with whoever our brain trusts trust but Im also fine with my personal opinion of JD being what Tice and others have written and supported

JD or MY .. make sure you get it right.

 

[ynotcaps]

Even when looking at scramble rate instead of just raw data, Daniels has one of the highest numbers on record. His 14.1% scramble rate ranks third among the 196 qualifying quarterbacks since 2019, only below Liberty quarterbacks Malik Willis and Kaidon Salter, both players known for their poor pocket management and run-first styles.

Even the slightest amount of pressure will cause Daniels’ eyes to come down in the pocket and start looking for running lanes: only 50.6% of his pressured dropbacks resulted in a pass attempt, ranking 193rd out of 196 qualifying quarterbacks since 2019. If Daniels gets moved off of his launch point, he is looking to run; 25% of his pressured dropbacks resulted in a scramble! When Daniels escapes outside of the pocket? He looks to run. Daniels had 83 dropbacks where he ended up outside the pocket in 2023 and 36 of those dropbacks resulted in a scramble. That means 43.4% of the time Daniels left the pocket, he was scrambling.

^^ from Tice article

10% leave clean pocket pct

-----

Im fine with whoever our brain trusts trust but Im also fine with my personal opinion of JD being what Tice and others have written and supported

JD or MY .. make sure you get it right.

Honestly, the only way they don't get it right is if they don't make the pick at 2.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

If I am the Controlling Partner representing LPs that just paid $6B for a distressed business we plan on turning around and we have a first time CEO (Peters) making an acquisition decision that will affect the trajectory of the business for the next decade, I am 100% going to be in those meetings. I am not going to opine or be involved or make any decisions but I want to hear the questions asked, see how the team works together, get a better understanding of my management team’s approach to problem solving and making decisions, etc. For me it would be just as much an evaluation of the evaluators and their process than the value of the target asset.

People get decisions wrong all the time but if you have a solid process and smart people in place making those decisions you’ll be successful more times than not, and I’d want see if we have the right people and the right process.

And that’s not even mentioning the fact that being in those rooms would be interesting as hell and a ton of fun, so even if it’s just that it’s understandable.

 

[RedRocking]

It’s probably both, but come on, it’s THE franchise decision. Something that could have ramifications for the next decade plus….He’s checking out the QB process primarily IMO, but sure, he’s probably just absorbing what all these guys he hired are doing….

Yea, picking a franchise QB is potentially a billion dollar decision for a franchise. It’s the one football decision where I have no problem with an owner that’s partly involved.

I was reading this week that a lot of teams have psychiatrists do the interview and the team personnel just watch. Kinda wild! Thought does seem appropriate in this day and age. I think they only get like 15-20 mins at the combine. Not sure how the contact rules work over the next couple months.

 

[Neil Racki]

One cool thing I like is when drafts have a solid "should/could have drafted" player to compare careers to. Some drafts there was only ever 1 in true consideration like Orakpo, Jon Allen, Young (yes chase young)

Trent Williams over Okung
Scherff over Leonard Williams
Payne over Derwin James
Jamin Davis over JOK
Dotson over Olave/Hamilton *asterix this one for trade but still

Maye vs Daniels should be a good one

 

[kicksavedave]

Any chance you can post the same info from Daniel’s last season at ASU?

Again, I expect a 5th year college starter to do a reasonable amount of things better than a 3rd year one. We know Daniels improved significantly and knowing exactly how much, statistically at least, would be informative IMO.

The logo says LSU but the stats are from 2019, 2020 (covid shortened year) and 2021 which you asked for. Enjoy the analysis and remember, In God We Trust, all others better bring data.

 

[kicksavedave]

kicksavedave ... where did you get those stat graphics? or should I not ask.

I subscribed to PFF when it was on deep sale, like $75 for the full year. It will replace my previous Fantasy Football research site, so its a wash for me. I get some people hate PFF for various reasons but they provide raw data you can't get anywhere else. Going strictly by their grading which can be subjective, but is based on their data, they rank JD highest of the 3 by a pretty wide margin. 94.7 to 90.7 to 90.3. For the record they had Joe Burrow at 94.1 in his draft season, so they rate Daniels higher than Burrow for their draft years.

 

[Neil Racki]

I subscribed to PFF when it was on deep sale, like $75 for the full year. It will replace my previous Fantasy Football research site, so its a wash for me. I get some people hate PFF for various reasons but they provide raw data you can't get anywhere else. Going strictly by their grading which can be subjective, but is based on their data, they rank JD highest of the 3 by a pretty wide margin. 94.7 to 90.7 to 90.3. For the record they had Joe Burrow at 94.1 in his draft season, so they rate Daniels higher than Burrow for their draft years.

I feel like Im a dinosaur just not appreciating how important the "avoid sack/off schedule" aspect is.

Thats why I like seeing more and more of the advanced stats. It keeps reminding me that I know jack shit .. hence the no strong commitment from me here on QBs.

Its not the same game as it was in the 90s when my football impression was cast

JD or DM ... bring it on! IM buying their jersey regardless

----------

PFF - heard a PFF guy the other day note how JD has a really high pct of throws outside the numbers and that just doesnt happen in the NFL, gotta be able to read/pass btw the numbers.

Outside passing is dangerous in the NFL as skill/talent are equal vs college where you pick on a weak CB who has no shot at NFL .. 5 star WR on a 2 star CB

 

[kicksavedave]

Even when looking at scramble rate instead of just raw data, Daniels has one of the highest numbers on record. His 14.1% scramble rate ranks third among the 196 qualifying quarterbacks since 2019, only below Liberty quarterbacks Malik Willis and Kaidon Salter, both players known for their poor pocket management and run-first styles.

Even the slightest amount of pressure will cause Daniels’ eyes to come down in the pocket and start looking for running lanes: only 50.6% of his pressured dropbacks resulted in a pass attempt, ranking 193rd out of 196 qualifying quarterbacks since 2019. If Daniels gets moved off of his launch point, he is looking to run; 25% of his pressured dropbacks resulted in a scramble! When Daniels escapes outside of the pocket? He looks to run. Daniels had 83 dropbacks where he ended up outside the pocket in 2023 and 36 of those dropbacks resulted in a scramble. That means 43.4% of the time Daniels left the pocket, he was scrambling.

^^ from Tice article

10% leave clean pocket pct

-----

Im fine with whoever our brain trusts trust but Im also fine with my personal opinion of JD being what Tice and others have written and supported

JD or MY .. make sure you get it right.

Interesting stats. I see it as this: You want a QB who makes good decisions, run, pass, throw it away, or take the sack, right? What those decisions are, is dictated in large part by the game situation, down, distance, score, time, etc. JD made good decisions and big time throws at a far higher rate than DM and CW did, raw numbers not withstanding in terms of what those decisions are. If every QB had JD's wheels, then every QB would tuck it and run more often than they did. LSU was the #1 scoring offense in the entire NCAA, so JD did an enormous amount of things correctly against the best competition in the NCAA. Very few QBs were a threat to take any scramble all the way like JD was. Ever. Vick, RGIII for one year, Lamar, maybe sometimes Josh Allen. Its not a really big list. The decision to run or throw is always dependent on the circumstances.

 

[Roric]

Good for him. Poor giants fans

 

[kicksavedave]

I feel like Im a dinosaur just not appreciating how important the "avoid sack/off schedule" aspect is.

Thats why I like seeing more and more of the advanced stats. It keeps reminding me that I know jack shit .. hence the no strong commitment from me here on QBs.

Its not the same game as it was in the 90s when my football impression was cast

JD or DM ... bring it on! IM buying their jersey regardless

----------

PFF - heard a PFF guy the other day note how JD has a really high pct of throws outside the numbers and that just doesnt happen in the NFL, gotta be able to read/pass btw the numbers.

Outside passing is dangerous in the NFL as skill/talent are equal vs college where you pick on a weak CB who has no shot at NFL .. 5 star WR on a 2 star CB

When JD did pass over the middle, he was pretty good at it. Passing outside can be easier against weak competition, but it also requires trust, accuracy and anticipation. Gus Frerrote was terrific throwing 12 yard simple out routes to Henry Ellard, it was automatic first downs, because they had their timing down perfect and Ellard ran perfect routes. You also can't be weak armed and throw outside. JD has a strong arm... not as strong as DM or CW, but plenty NFL strong.

 

[Neil Racki]

If Dotson could be Ellard .. thatd be great. I remember those days.

Doesnt get separation from speed, wont win many 50/50 balls but gets separation by great route running, great hands.

move them chains!

 

[ynotcaps]

When JD did pass over the middle, he was pretty good at it. Passing outside can be easier against weak competition, but it also requires trust, accuracy and anticipation. Gus Frerrote was terrific throwing 12 yard simple out routes to Henry Ellard, it was automatic first downs, because they had their timing down perfect and Ellard ran perfect routes. You also can't be weak armed and throw outside. JD has a strong arm... not as strong as DM or CW, but plenty NFL strong.

I think it was the Chase D. video where he broke down a play where Daniels hit said 12-yard out on the near sideline from the far hash -- a much longer throw in college because of the wide hashes. My thought on the first view, before Daniels got into the breakdown, was "damn, nice arm."

 

[Roric]

If I am the Controlling Partner representing LPs that just paid $6B for a distressed business we plan on turning around and we have a first time CEO (Peters) making an acquisition decision that will affect the trajectory of the business for the next decade, I am 100% going to be in those meetings. I am not going to opine or be involved or make any decisions but I want to hear the questions asked, see how the team works together, get a better understanding of my management team’s approach to problem solving and making decisions, etc. For me it would be just as much an evaluation of the evaluators and their process than the value of the target asset.

People get decisions wrong all the time but if you have a solid process and smart people in place making those decisions you’ll be successful more times than not, and I’d want see if we have the right people and the right process.

And that’s not even mentioning the fact that being in those rooms would be interesting as hell and a ton of fun, so even if it’s just that it’s understandable.

He’s there to tell Caleb look my ownership group has 10 billionaires including from sports like you want to become. Pull an Eli and tell that fossil 101 year old owner in Chicago you want no part of that organization.

 

[ynotcaps]

The logo says LSU but the stats are from 2019, 2020 (covid shortened year) and 2021 which you asked for. Enjoy the analysis and remember, In God We Trust, all others better bring data.

What jumps out to me there is that he improved significantly each year. Then when he went against better competition in a more demanding, more pro-style system, he didn't just get better, he blew up.
OK, I need to settle down. I'll stop. Sorry.

 

[EroCaps]

I mean it blows my mind that people want a Q-tip at QB with Drake Maye on the board.

I would understand if this was Daniel’s vs McCarthy or something. It isn’t.

You’re hoping he becomes Lamar Jackson or Mike Vick. Both of whom have zero rings and limited availability.

Enjoy your amazing 10 game stretches and zero Super Bowls. I’ll take Eli Manning.

 

[kicksavedave]

I feel like Im a dinosaur just not appreciating how important the "avoid sack/off schedule" aspect is.

Thats why I like seeing more and more of the advanced stats. It keeps reminding me that I know jack shit .. hence the no strong commitment from me here on QBs.

Its not the same game as it was in the 90s when my football impression was cast

JD or DM ... bring it on! IM buying their jersey regardless

----------

PFF - heard a PFF guy the other day note how JD has a really high pct of throws outside the numbers and that just doesnt happen in the NFL, gotta be able to read/pass btw the numbers.

Outside passing is dangerous in the NFL as skill/talent are equal vs college where you pick on a weak CB who has no shot at NFL .. 5 star WR on a 2 star CB

One more thing on PFF vs some youtube talking heads. PFF watches every single throw all year and grades it across multiple factors, like game situation, etc. Some of the talking heads admit they only watched one game, then give you all these opinions about this throw or that mistake. Its absurd. NFL scouts watch every snap. Some of the top guys watch every snap. When Chase Daniel says he watched one game, it makes you wonder how meaningful any of his analysis is?

PC in Oz over at CPND forum watched every snap of 4 games vs the top ranked defense that JD, DM and CW played. He drew up his analysis over the same four complete game samples. Its a stark look at the players vs good defenses, vs how much one of them padded their stats vs Buttscratch State. JD thrived vs good defenses, he really stepped up. CW melted down vs Notre Dame and never looked the same after that game. Drake Maye struggled really big over the last 4 overall games of the season. Maye's two best games were against, ahem, Appalachia State and Georgie Tech and he was terrible vs Miami in week 6. Draftniks that only watch one game would miss a lot of this nuance.

 

[kicksavedave]

I mean it blows my mind that people want a Q-tip at QB with Drake Maye on the board.

I would understand if this was Daniel’s vs McCarthy or something. It isn’t.

You’re hoping he becomes Lamar Jackson or Mike Vick. Both of whom have zero rings and limited availability.

Enjoy your amazing 10 game stretches and zero Super Bowls. I’ll take Eli Manning.

You do know that height and weight and the ratio between them have almost nothing at all to do with NFL durability, right? Bigger, thicker QBs get hurt all the time. Skinny toothpick WRs and DBs stay healthy all the time. There's just no direct correlation.

If height, weight and thickness/ratio was a real factor, then no OL or DL would ever get hurt and every skinny player would never stay healthy. You're literally making up a narrative out of whole cloth.

 

[g00n]

Mahomes is 2 inches shorter and 15lbs heavier than JD, supposedly.

 

[kicksavedave]

Kirk Cousins in 6'3.5" 205 lbs. He started every game from 2015 to halfway through this year - 8 years not missing a start.

Anthony Richardson is is 6'4" and 244 lbs. He lasted 4 games before his shoulder exploded.

Jameis Winston is 6'4" 230 Lbs. He's played 16 games three times in 9 seasons, missing time for injury in at least half of his seasons.

Durability is durability. Height and weight are not the same thing.

 

[Roric]

Ian Rappaport just said on NFL Network he has heard that the Commanders and Patriots are already receiving calls from teams who want to trade up for a QB.