OT: 2024 Washington Commanders thread: change we can believe in!

[CapitalsCupReality]

That's a wild assumption. Picking a QB is a crap shoot at best. Maybe we let them jump ahead of us and they grab the next Malik Willis.

I sure hope our strategy isn’t to pray the others screw up around us…

 

[Jags]

The idea that Daniels isn't a highly capable pocket passer, despite his ability to also make big things happen with his legs, is a false one.

No one said that. All 3 of these guys are "highly capable" at everything. All I said was "Maye might be better in that regard..." It's not an indictment of Daniels' ability to say that another elite prospect might be better at something.

The rest of your first paragraph is overstatement. If all of that were true he'd be the consensus #1 pick and we wouldn't be having this conversation.

Finally, although I get the injury concern, I don't agree with it. 55 starts. Never missed a start in 5 years.

Playing against children from East Buttscratch State half the time. Every team he'll face going forward will be exponentially better, bigger, stronger, faster, smarter, and more experienced than anything he's seen so far. He's absolutely going to get hit more and harder, and he's built like a stick figure.

Tom Brady was durable, but if an NFL DL lands on his ankle, its going to break. Daniels is no different

He's far narrower, leaner, and weighs 20 pounds less. That's different. He also runs. Brady didn't run at all, so any running is a huge difference and Daniels runs a lot. So that's also different. Brady also had a pretty great OL most of the time and Daniels is going to land with a shit team with shady protection. Also different. Brady also has man-sized ankles. Daniels' ankles look like what you see when you put a toothpick into an olive. Different.

Fact is, I like both QBs (DM and JD) but I like Daniels a little bit more, in terms of readiness and upside. Either one could still be great or bust, and we won't know for 4 years.

Fact is, I like Both QBs and overall I also probably like Daniels a little bit more, for reasons very similar to yours. But I have a little PTSD from the last skinny QB that thought he could outrun the world and the last #2 overall we had that busted over injuries. Fool me once blah blah blah, fool me twice blah blah blah, fool me three times and I may as well change my name to Fool.

That's why I used all those words to describe my feelings on that, and Daniels' similar physical gifts that might make him similarly susceptible to a similar downfall.

Of course DM could also get hurt, which is why I made the point that maybe someone with a bigger build that plays more conservatively might weather things better, and that my whole thing boils down to him feeling like a safer pick.

If we take JD, he'll have no bigger fan than me. I just hope that, unlike RGIII, he understands what "Quarterback of The Future" means, especially the "OF THE FUTURE" part, and conducts himself accordingly. Cuz a guy with JD's build is going the look like the posterchild for ragdoll physics if he gets cute in the NFL.

 

[kicksavedave]

Daniels dominated against SEC defenses, not East Buttscratch State, like Trey Lance did. Look what he did to playoff bound Alabama, and its possible that almost everyone of their eligible defensive players gets drafted.

I think there's solid evidence on game film that Daniels is the better overall pocket passer among the top 3. If I had to rank them as pocket passers its Daniels 1A, Maye 1B and CW is 3.

Anyway, I think there's not that much daylight between our positions. If we land either DM or JD, I'll be even more excited than when we traded a fortune for RGIII. And I'm sure I'll rationalize either selection to ensure I feel smarter

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Yeah I laugh when I see someone suggest an SEC team has powderpuff competition…

 

[EroCaps]

Daniels dominated against SEC defenses, not East Buttscratch State, like Trey Lance did. Look what he did to playoff bound Alabama, and its possible that almost everyone of their eligible defensive players gets drafted.

I think there's solid evidence on game film that Daniels is the better overall pocket passer among the top 3. If I had to rank them as pocket passers its Daniels 1A, Maye 1B and CW is 3.

Anyway, I think there's not that much daylight between our positions. If we land either DM or JD, I'll be even more excited than when we traded a fortune for RGIII. And I'm sure I'll rationalize either selection to ensure I feel smarter

In college as a 5 year starter. His sack rate is terrible and he won’t get away with half of that shit in the NFL.

Daniels would be a catastrophic pick.

 

[Roric]

I sure hope our strategy isn’t to pray the others screw up around us…

Why cant that be part of the strategy?

Bait and switch could potentially net a windfall of assets...

Case in point:

We LOOOVE Jamarcus Russell

All it takes is one dummy to believe it...

 

[Ajax1995]

In college as a 5 year starter. His sack rate is terrible and he won’t get away with half of that shit in the NFL.

Daniels would be a catastrophic pick.

I’m not sure if I would go that far but I share your concerns that comparing a 5th year guy to a 3rd year guy isn’t exactly apples to apples. There is a reason Daniels transferred to a power after his 3rd year instead of enter the draft.

Obviously it worked out great for him but if Maye was transferring to LSU now anyone not comfortable betting a reasonable amount that he would be way better in 2 years? Better than Daniels now? I’d make that bet so I’m leaning towards Maye.

 

[RedRocking]

The idea that Daniels isn't a highly capable pocket passer, despite his ability to also make big things happen with his legs, is a false one. First, he has dedicated himself to film study and it showed in his results on the field which increased in each of his 5 seasons - whereas both CW and DM regressed in their final season (at least results wise). JD is probably the best at reading defenses and making the right decision among the top 3 QBs - fewest turnover worthy plays which factors in drops by the defense that should have been picks. JD also has the best propensity to stay in the pocket and use his arm when he can, vs CW who loves to pull it down and play hero ball, meaning CW would have a harder time adapting to losing his speed. He throws with anticipation very well, throwing before WRs have made their break, plenty. JD also shows better pocket awareness and performs best under pressure, among the big three. JD's missed throws are, close, but not perfect, whereas DM's missed throws are utter head scratchers, as in, "what was he looking at"?.

Finally, although I get the injury concern, I don't agree with it. 55 starts. Never missed a start in 5 years. Began as a 175 lb true freshman and started every single game since then, gaining 35 lbs since then. So he can gain more weight, he's not fragile, not injury prone, and he does slide and run out of bounds when needed, a couple highlight hits not being his norm, but the exception.

Tom Brady was durable, but if an NFL DL lands on his ankle, its going to break. Daniels is no different, but it doesn't make him more risky. Joe Burrow wasn't injury prone in college, but he's finished two of four seasons on IR now. You can't predict that a player with no injury history will suddenly become injury prone. Stuff just happens in the NFL. JD knows how to protect himself - its all on the film - again one or two big highlights showing the exception are just that, the exception.

Fact is, I like both QBs (DM and JD) but I like Daniels a little bit more, in terms of readiness and upside. Either one could still be great or bust, and we won't know for 4 years.

What I worry about with Daniels at the NFL level is what will he do when he can’t run all the time? Only 50.6% of his pressured drop backs resulted in a pass attempt. That’s 3rd worst (of 196 QBs) since 2019.

Overall, 43.4% of the time he left the pocket (pressured or not), he ran! I’d like to see him keep his eyes downfield rather than looking for rush lanes (which won’t be there at the NFL level).

Moreover, his pressure to sack ratio is 24.5%, which is bad - like Sam Howell in college territory. And that tends to be a sticky trait (as we saw with Sam). So, again - what happens when a D forces him to throw from the pocket and he doesn’t have one of the best O-lines in the country blocking? Or doesn’t have Nabers/Thomas destroying secondaries?

His passing efficiency last season was amazing - love his accuracy and release (both of which should translate to NFL). But how much of that success can be attributed to the fact that he didn’t take a lot of chances throwing in tight windows (particularly MOF), because he could just take off through one of those gigantic rushing lanes.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Why cant that be part of the strategy?

Bait and switch could potentially net a windfall of assets...

Case in point:

We LOOOVE Jamarcus Russell

All it takes is one dummy to believe it...

Sounds like one of Twabby’s fantasies where others overpay, but we know the true value lol…

 

[EroCaps]

I’m not sure if I would go that far but I share your concerns that comparing a 5th year guy to a 3rd year guy isn’t exactly apples to apples. There is a reason Daniels transferred to a power after his 3rd year instead of enter the draft.

Obviously it worked out great for him but if Maye was transferring to LSU now anyone not comfortable betting a reasonable amount that he would be way better in 2 years? Better than Daniels now? I’d make that bet so I’m leaning towards Maye.

Maye was given a slot at Alabama but opted out to stay with his family’s Alma Mater.

And yeah, it’s reasonable to suggest with 3 years of experience this wouldn’t be a debate. I can’t wait for the draft to come and go.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Why cant that be part of the strategy?

Bait and switch could potentially net a windfall of assets...

Case in point:

We LOOOVE Jamarcus Russell

All it takes is one dummy to believe it...

Ahhhh, JaMucus. Helluvan internal drive, on that one.

 

[ynotcaps]

Yeah I laugh when I see someone suggest an SEC team has powderpuff competition…

Maybe the SEC East, which gets the Vandy-bye...

 

[ynotcaps]

Reposting this (I think Kicksave originally posted?) for those who may have missed it. Deep breakdown of Daniels. He loves him. Bottom line assessment: Daniels is Jalen Hurts if Jalen Hurts could read defenses.


(Same guy does a deep dive on Maye -- whom he also likes, but characterizes as a bigger bust risk. Does 5+ minutes (maybe close to 10?) on Maye's sloppiness with placement and missing guys he should hit.)

Separately, here's a link featuring Field Yates w/ some CHI radio guys (not sure if this has been posted or not.)


Yates has some interesting notes:
On Caleb, thinks the leadership/maturity questions are baseless, he's gotten not a whiff of any of that from SC coaches/staff/anybody. Makes an interesting point that CW hasn't hired an agent yet, and one of the big things agents do is fight that stuff off aggressively and counter-program. Yates doesn't say this, but I think it's fair to wonder if Dad Williams is compounding the problem rather than defusing it.

Also, on potential for us to trade up w/ CHI, Yates doesn't see it. Juice isn't worth the squeeze in what we'd have to give up and given the quality of the next 2 QBs -- not his words, but basically a waste of major assets for what may be a marginally better prospect.

He still thinks it's more likely CHI takes Caleb, but not as sure a thing as TL to Jags was in '21.

No one said that. All 3 of these guys are "highly capable" at everything. All I said was "Maye might be better in that regard..." It's not an indictment of Daniels' ability to say that another elite prospect might be better at something.

The rest of your first paragraph is overstatement. If all of that were true he'd be the consensus #1 pick and we wouldn't be having this conversation.



Playing against children from East Buttscratch State half the time. Every team he'll face going forward will be exponentially better, bigger, stronger, faster, smarter, and more experienced than anything he's seen so far. He's absolutely going to get hit more and harder, and he's built like a stick figure.



He's far narrower, leaner, and weighs 20 pounds less. That's different. He also runs. Brady didn't run at all, so any running is a huge difference and Daniels runs a lot. So that's also different. Brady also had a pretty great OL most of the time and Daniels is going to land with a shit team with shady protection. Also different. Brady also has man-sized ankles. Daniels' ankles look like what you see when you put a toothpick into an olive. Different.



Fact is, I like Both QBs and overall I also probably like Daniels a little bit more, for reasons very similar to yours. But I have a little PTSD from the last skinny QB that thought he could outrun the world and the last #2 overall we had that busted over injuries. Fool me once blah blah blah, fool me twice blah blah blah, fool me three times and I may as well change my name to Fool.

That's why I used all those words to describe my feelings on that, and Daniels' similar physical gifts that might make him similarly susceptible to a similar downfall.

Of course DM could also get hurt, which is why I made the point that maybe someone with a bigger build that plays more conservatively might weather things better, and that my whole thing boils down to him feeling like a safer pick.

If we take JD, he'll have no bigger fan than me. I just hope that, unlike RGIII, he understands what "Quarterback of The Future" means, especially the "OF THE FUTURE" part, and conducts himself accordingly. Cuz a guy with JD's build is going the look like the posterchild for ragdoll physics if he gets cute in the NFL.

You do realize you will have to literally fight me on that, right?

 

[ynotcaps]

In college as a 5 year starter. His sack rate is terrible and he won’t get away with half of that shit in the NFL.

Daniels would be a catastrophic pick.

Au contraire. I can tell you with absolute, 100% certainty that there's a chance that it's possible that Jaden Daniels will be the greatest QB ever.

 

[Jags]

Maybe the SEC East, which gets the Vandy-bye...

I hear you guys, lol. The hyperbole in my last post, including East Buttscratch State, was for giggles. The SEC is plenty tough, but the worst NFL team would stomp the shit out of all of them. An SEC all-star team with a good coach might steal a couple games.

Daniels' tendencies will absolutely have to change at the next level. He's smarter than Sam, but also far more daring, so it's a wash at best. He'd have to become more of what Maye already is, but Maye has other issues entirely, so it's a wash at best, lol.

Regarding trade-back scenarios, the only one that interests me at all -- because I really am torn between these 2 guys -- is to take whatever NE will give us if they're sure who they want and we're any good at convincing them we want him too. To allow NE to make the decision for us, so we can point to whatever we got in return as the "Yeah, but we got a great one AND this and this."

As it is, it's gonna kill me if our guy busts and NE's doesn't, no matter which guy is which. It'd be awesome if there was a Patriots trade scenario, but I doubt it.

(And of course all of this is moot if our staff is 100% convinced who they want. I'll admire that conviction regardless.)

 

[RedRocking]

Good interview with a guy from PFF. Talking QBs (incl McCarthy) and some wild trade down scenarios for the Commies.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

JD is not Hurts. What made Hurts so good is he can squat a fire truck and can tush push. We can see how strong JD is at the combine but I doubt his calfs are close to Hurts

Just look at his picture. He is so skinny,

 

[usiel]

I hear you guys, lol. The hyperbole in my last post, including East Buttscratch State, was for giggles. The SEC is plenty tough, but the worst NFL team would stomp the shit out of all of them. An SEC all-star team with a good coach might steal a couple games.

Daniels' tendencies will absolutely have to change at the next level. He's smarter than Sam, but also far more daring, so it's a wash at best. He'd have to become more of what Maye already is, but Maye has other issues entirely, so it's a wash at best, lol.

Regarding trade-back scenarios, the only one that interests me at all -- because I really am torn between these 2 guys -- is to take whatever NE will give us if they're sure who they want and we're any good at convincing them we want him too. To allow NE to make the decision for us, so we can point to whatever we got in return as the "Yeah, but we got a great one AND this and this."

As it is, it's gonna kill me if our guy busts and NE's doesn't, no matter which guy is which. It'd be awesome if there was a Patriots trade scenario, but I doubt it.

(And of course all of this is moot if our staff is 100% convinced who they want. I'll admire that conviction regardless.)

Quoting just because being okay with self-admitted hyperbole should be celebrated.

 

[usiel]

 

[ynotcaps]

I hear you guys, lol. The hyperbole in my last post, including East Buttscratch State, was for giggles. The SEC is plenty tough, but the worst NFL team would stomp the shit out of all of them. An SEC all-star team with a good coach might steal a couple games.

Daniels' tendencies will absolutely have to change at the next level. He's smarter than Sam, but also far more daring, so it's a wash at best. He'd have to become more of what Maye already is, but Maye has other issues entirely, so it's a wash at best, lol.

Regarding trade-back scenarios, the only one that interests me at all -- because I really am torn between these 2 guys -- is to take whatever NE will give us if they're sure who they want and we're any good at convincing them we want him too. To allow NE to make the decision for us, so we can point to whatever we got in return as the "Yeah, but we got a great one AND this and this."

As it is, it's gonna kill me if our guy busts and NE's doesn't, no matter which guy is which. It'd be awesome if there was a Patriots trade scenario, but I doubt it.

(And of course all of this is moot if our staff is 100% convinced who they want. I'll admire that conviction regardless.)

I hear you, brother!
Maybe the most damning thing about the Snyder years is the training that we've all received in how to expect the worst in every situation. I obviously have a clear bias toward Daniels -- but the fact that we are in position to get a potential franchise QB is, objectively speaking, will all paranoia aside, is fantastic and hopefully a once in a generation or more opportunity. Whatever nits/concerns about any of the 3 guys, they only way we could really screw it up would be to not pull the trigger (i.e., trading down.)

This franchise has not had a franchise QB in the memory of maybe anybody posting here -- I had just started picking my own outfits , much to my mother's chagrin (mixing plaids and stripes) when Sonny played his last snap. (With all due respect, Joey T. was very good in his prime, but he was not a perennial all-pro nor HOFer.) This FO operation cannot let the demented howls of the long-abused fanbase influence them. They are smart, successful, professional football people. They need to do their job, rank the 3 guys and take the guy they like best who's available at 2.

Get us our QB. We'll do our best to overcome our collective battered-spouse syndrome and shout our throats out Week 1.

(And next off-season, basking in the glow of a ROY performance from our Franchise Guy, we can all turn our attention to howling over the stupid name and criminally trash uniforms...)

 

[ynotcaps]

I need to watch more Chase Daniel -- love the way he breaks down what the look is, that the QB is reading, etc.

 

[usiel]

View attachment 826885

I need to watch more Chase Daniel -- love the way he breaks down what the look is, that the QB is reading, etc.

Yeah I felt that same way that was some damn good analysis and did talk about the frame risks.

If JD is the pick...they'll need to coach him up to actually slide and get out of bounds. Take the safe yards and preserve your career. Also most likely the O line makeover will not be complete so its on the OC to take that into account unlike poor EB.

DM still has a bit of bust potential but if they approach him maybe in more of the game manager offensive scheme those upside talents will emerge and allow for some higher end potential.

 

[Roric]

JD is not Hurts. What made Hurts so good is he can squat a fire truck and can tush push. We can see how strong JD is at the combine but I doubt his calfs are close to Hurts

Just look at his picture. He is so skinny,

I think he could be better. Hurts got a bit exposed this past year

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I think he could be better. Hurts got a bit exposed this past year

Maybe. Hurts is a one trick pony and it got figured out.

 

[RedRocking]

See, now this is the sh*t that terrifies me - drafting a smaller, weaker armed version of Fields.

The Nate Tice (from the Athletic) article referenced is a really good read.

I’m trying to be excited about both JD & DM. And to be clear, I have plenty of concerns about DM too. His mechanics, head-scratching plays, and the inconsistency with his accuracy (when he’s off, he is OFF and spraying the ball all over the field).