OT: 2024 Washington Commanders thread: change we can believe in!

[CapitalsCupReality]

And I one MILLION percent don't want us trading down for the 4th QB and watch the Giants jump up and get their guy for a decade.

That would be so Redskinny…

 

[RedRocking]

And I one MILLION percent don't want us trading down for the 4th QB and watch the Giants jump up and get their guy for a decade.

Yea, hell no. The networks have a real hard on for the Giants somehow getting one of the top QBs.

This morning, Greenie was squealing about the Giants getting Maye, then the next segment someone said JJ is “perfectly poised for the NY market.” It’s almost like the other 31 teams barely matter, lol.

All that said, if they were to trade up to #3 and take whoever we don’t between DM/JD - we better be on the right side there, or I might literally lose my mind hearing it from my NY friends for the next decade.

 

[ynotcaps]

Good pull on the 2018 draft. Ironically, it was 7OA and 32OA that easily has the most impact. 1OA has been “ok”, while 3OA and 10OA were total busts.

Anyway, I’d be pretty surprised to see 4 QB’s in top 7. So that’s why I’m bullish on a trade down to accrue MOAR assets. They need as much as they can — IN THIS DRAFT — to fill holes.

Another scenario would be trading down w AZ. They’ve got 4, 27, 35, 66, 71 & 90. Would love to see some combo of their picks for the 2

I would love an AZ trade down, but I think it'd be almost impossible to con them out of their second 1st to move up 2 spots. To them, it's purely a game of poker -- they clearly have their sites set on MHJ. They know the 3 ahead need QBs, the only real threat to them getting their guide in NE, but even that's more likely than not a bluff from NE. Hell, NE's QB situation is the worst of the top 3. All ARI has to do is keep their nerve.
If worse case scenario does come to pass and NE effs up and takes MHJ, then ARI either takes another elite WR prospect (Nabers/Odunze pick-'em), or trades down a few spots to get more assets and still be able to take a top WR or OT.
If I'm a complete idiot and ARI is willing, then hellz yeah, I move to 4, take whichever of the top 3 QBs is left and dance all night with whichever extra hotties we can nab with the extra pick(s).

Yea, hell no. The networks have a real hard on for the Giants somehow getting one of the top QBs.

This morning, Greenie was squealing about the Giants getting Maye, then the next segment someone said JJ is “perfectly poised for the NY market.” It’s almost like the other 31 teams barely matter, lol.

All that said, if they were to trade up to #3 and take whoever we don’t between DM/JD - we better be on the right side there, or I might literally lose my mind hearing it from my NY friends for the next decade.

That reminds me why I don't have NY friends.

 

[Holtbyisms]

I generally like Daniel Jeremiah, he actually has team sources.

Tell me the Skins are drafting Maye without telling me they're drafting Maye.

 

[kicksavedave]

I would love an AZ trade down, but I think it'd be almost impossible to con them out of their second 1st to move up 2 spots. To them, it's purely a game of poker -- they clearly have their sites set on MHJ. They know the 3 ahead need QBs, the only real threat to them getting their guide in NE, but even that's more likely than not a bluff from NE. Hell, NE's QB situation is the worst of the top 3. All ARI has to do is keep their nerve.
If worse case scenario does come to pass and NE effs up and takes MHJ, then ARI either takes another elite WR prospect (Nabers/Odunze pick-'em), or trades down a few spots to get more assets and still be able to take a top WR or OT.
If I'm a complete idiot and ARI is willing, then hellz yeah, I move to 4, take whichever of the top 3 QBs is left and dance all night with whichever extra hotties we can nab with the extra pick(s).


That reminds me why I don't have NY friends.

Spot on. AZ Would have to be really dense to trade up for MH2, when Odunze and Nabors are, frankly, close enough and clearly top WR1 candidates themselves. If AZ was smart, and someone took MH2 ahead of them at 4, they should take the feast to trade back a bit and let some stupid team trade way up for the QB that slides to 4. Then take whichever top WR is left at their slot, and there will be a few.

I see the chances of AZ trading up with us us as close to zero. They should not blink at any of the bluffs and of a QB slides to them they enter the drivers seat.

 

[kicksavedave]

Not sure it's fair to say they whiffed on Trey Lance. Anybody can have a season ending injury at any time. Just the nature of the game. Brock Purdy definitely made the most of his opportunities, but I wouldn't say Trey Lance was a poor pick or anything. Luck has a lot to do with how that situation played out.

Even when he was healthy, he failed to beat out Jimmy G to start, or even Sam Darnold for 2nd string behind Purdy in 2023. He was a bust, plain and simple and he cost them an absolute ton. Steep price to pay to gamble on a QB with 17 college starts against weak competition and only one start in his draft year, 2020 (not his fault, COVID).

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

2024 NFL Draft: Five hypothetical trade offers for Bears' No. 1 pick — FOX Sports

As the Bears debate whether to use the No. 1 pick or deal it for a huge haul, here are five hypothetical trade packages from QB-needy teams.

apple.news

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[ynotcaps]

The reasons he lists for the Bears not moving back applies just as much to usat 2 OA:

"Here’s the thing. The rose I hold is worth a lot in the form of the first overall pick. It means the chance to pick from one of the best quarterback classes in recent years and the ability to have that player on a team-controlled contract until at least 2027. It’s not just getting the player, it’s the ability to build a team with an NFL-ready player (presumably) and stack the deck around him with the cap savings."

 

[Bananas]

Yeah the QB choice between Daniels and Maye is a really tough one. Even worse if the Bears throw a curveball and take one, leaving us CW and Maye-or-JD instead. But the 9rs completely whiffed hard on Trey Lance and still became a SB contender within a few years, but getting lucky on Mr Irrelevant being a pro bowl QB is a suckers bet. They need to get this choice right.

Hopefully both QBs become great so the risk is minimal, but if one succeeds and one busts, we better be on the right side of that decision.

This is pretty much the Peters era. If he nails this, it’s going to be a hell of a lot easier to succeed. If not he’s pretty ****** from the jump lol.

No pressure…

 

[RedRocking]

Tell me the Skins are drafting Maye without telling me they're drafting Maye.

I kinda wish that was the case, but he’s saying the scouts are pretty evenly split - and he’s generally an honest broker. The consensus is no longer DM > JD, like it was a month ago.

Though, it’s nice to see some pushback on the Daniels hype in this compelling piece (that echoes my own concerns):

Jayden Daniels' NFL Draft stock has risen more than anyone, but will he live up to it?

Daniels went from a mid-round prospect to a potential top-five pick after his magnificent Heisman season at LSU. There are some concerns with the finer points of his game though.

sports.yahoo.com

Yeah the QB choice between Daniels and Maye is a really tough one. Even worse if the Bears throw a curveball and take one, leaving us CW and Maye-or-JD instead. But the 9rs completely whiffed hard on Trey Lance and still became a SB contender within a few years, but getting lucky on Mr Irrelevant being a pro bowl QB is a suckers bet. They need to get this choice right.

Hopefully both QBs become great so the risk is minimal, but if one succeeds and one busts, we better be on the right side of that decision.

That type of curveball would make the decision easy IMO. They’d run to the podium to take Caleb.

 

[John Price]

FedEx opting out of naming rights deal with stadium. Guess they'll call it something else now.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

f*** Dan Snyder Field has a nice ring to it.

 

[Jags]

The consensus is no longer DM > JD, like it was a month ago.

Yeah, I'm torn at least until there's some new information. Maye feels untested by comparison. My hangup with Daniels is the Robert Griffin/Chase Young factor.

Guys that have that elite athleticism their whole lives -- that X-factor that puts them in a league by themselves -- sometimes don't have to hone their games because of those physical gifts. So the second there's significant injury that compromises that athleticism, they don't have the skills to fall back on and immediately become average.

Daniels is so fun to watch, but I'm not sure his game would weather that kind of damage. Anything that reels him into being a pocket guy is going to take away the majority of what makes him special. He's got nice arm strength and talent, but Maye might be better in that regard and his game is built far less around his legs. His best talents can weather a lost step or two, in my opinion.

So right now it just feels safer, and since we haven't had an elite QB for longer than a season or two since maybe as far back as Sonny, I wouldn't mind a safe bet. The one guy we had that was great and durable we ran out of town on a rail because he was somehow not good enough...

Time for that shit to end. If Daniels grows some calves between now and the draft, I might change my mind.

 

[g00n]

I doubt anyone plays 4yrs HS and 5yrs college and doesn't get banged up quite a bit. You play through it.

The problem is the NFL is the elite of the elite. The game is faster. The players are bigger and faster. The season is longer.

 

[John Price]

 

[Jags]

More from Jeremiah. He's also undecided, but it's nice to hear the hows and whys at least.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

That’s an embarrassment…F-?!?

 

[Ridley Simon]

Ok — I assume that was for last year? The Head Coach piece — nothing to base that on, right?

 

[Bananas]

Yeah, I'm torn at least until there's some new information. Maye feels untested by comparison. My hangup with Daniels is the Robert Griffin/Chase Young factor.

Guys that have that elite athleticism their whole lives -- that X-factor that puts them in a league by themselves -- sometimes don't have to hone their games because of those physical gifts. So the second there's significant injury that compromises that athleticism, they don't have the skills to fall back on and immediately become average.

Daniels is so fun to watch, but I'm not sure his game would weather that kind of damage. Anything that reels him into being a pocket guy is going to take away the majority of what makes him special. He's got nice arm strength and talent, but Maye might be better in that regard and his game is built far less around his legs. His best talents can weather a lost step or two, in my opinion.

So right now it just feels safer, and since we haven't had an elite QB for longer than a season or two since maybe as far back as Sonny, I wouldn't mind a safe bet. The one guy we had that was great and durable we ran out of town on a rail because he was somehow not good enough...

Time for that shit to end. If Daniels grows some calves between now and the draft, I might change my mind.

This is me as well.

 

[kicksavedave]

Yeah, I'm torn at least until there's some new information. Maye feels untested by comparison. My hangup with Daniels is the Robert Griffin/Chase Young factor.

Guys that have that elite athleticism their whole lives -- that X-factor that puts them in a league by themselves -- sometimes don't have to hone their games because of those physical gifts. So the second there's significant injury that compromises that athleticism, they don't have the skills to fall back on and immediately become average.

Daniels is so fun to watch, but I'm not sure his game would weather that kind of damage. Anything that reels him into being a pocket guy is going to take away the majority of what makes him special. He's got nice arm strength and talent, but Maye might be better in that regard and his game is built far less around his legs. His best talents can weather a lost step or two, in my opinion.

So right now it just feels safer, and since we haven't had an elite QB for longer than a season or two since maybe as far back as Sonny, I wouldn't mind a safe bet. The one guy we had that was great and durable we ran out of town on a rail because he was somehow not good enough...

Time for that shit to end. If Daniels grows some calves between now and the draft, I might change my mind.

The idea that Daniels isn't a highly capable pocket passer, despite his ability to also make big things happen with his legs, is a false one. First, he has dedicated himself to film study and it showed in his results on the field which increased in each of his 5 seasons - whereas both CW and DM regressed in their final season (at least results wise). JD is probably the best at reading defenses and making the right decision among the top 3 QBs - fewest turnover worthy plays which factors in drops by the defense that should have been picks. JD also has the best propensity to stay in the pocket and use his arm when he can, vs CW who loves to pull it down and play hero ball, meaning CW would have a harder time adapting to losing his speed. He throws with anticipation very well, throwing before WRs have made their break, plenty. JD also shows better pocket awareness and performs best under pressure, among the big three. JD's missed throws are, close, but not perfect, whereas DM's missed throws are utter head scratchers, as in, "what was he looking at"?.

Finally, although I get the injury concern, I don't agree with it. 55 starts. Never missed a start in 5 years. Began as a 175 lb true freshman and started every single game since then, gaining 35 lbs since then. So he can gain more weight, he's not fragile, not injury prone, and he does slide and run out of bounds when needed, a couple highlight hits not being his norm, but the exception.

Tom Brady was durable, but if an NFL DL lands on his ankle, its going to break. Daniels is no different, but it doesn't make him more risky. Joe Burrow wasn't injury prone in college, but he's finished two of four seasons on IR now. You can't predict that a player with no injury history will suddenly become injury prone. Stuff just happens in the NFL. JD knows how to protect himself - its all on the film - again one or two big highlights showing the exception are just that, the exception.

Fact is, I like both QBs (DM and JD) but I like Daniels a little bit more, in terms of readiness and upside. Either one could still be great or bust, and we won't know for 4 years.

 

[kicksavedave]

That type of curveball would make the decision easy IMO. They’d run to the podium to take Caleb.

`This is the conventional wisdom but I happen to disagree. I think CW, although he's the most physically gifted, is the more likely to bust of all the top 3. I think his mental game isn't on par with JD and DM and for a QB thats kinda everything.

That said, with KK on the staff, I would defer to their judgement and if they want CW, or pass on CW, I have to think they're doing it with more inside knowledge than anyone else in the NFL.

 

[Neil Racki]

DL, top tier DL, seems to be a position with high supply past few years.

Eagles scoped up Haason Reddick for 3/45 in FA and he posted double digit sacks.

5 of the top 7 FA per PFF are DL.

Chris Jones - all pro DT .. available in FA, no draft capital needed (may be a haynesworth cone though)
Josh Allen, Brian Burns, Madubuike, Wilkins

-------------------

OL is the position with very low supply. Sure you can find a fat G for 5m per to give you average play but elite OL play is in such short supply and high demand.

Draft OL, QB, CB, WR exclusively. All others can be filled admirably in FA.

2024 NFL Free Agent Rankings: Top 200 players set to enter free agency

We look at the 200 best players set to hit the free-agent market this offseason with free agency still months away.

www.pff.com

 

[Ridley Simon]

DL, top tier DL, seems to be a position with high supply past few years.

Eagles scoped up Haason Reddick for 3/45 in FA and he posted double digit sacks.

5 of the top 7 FA per PFF are DL.

Chris Jones - all pro DT .. available in FA, no draft capital needed (may be a haynesworth cone though)
Josh Allen, Brian Burns, Madubuike, Wilkins

-------------------

OL is the position with very low supply. Sure you can find a fat G for 5m per to give you average play but elite OL play is in such short supply and high demand.

Draft OL, QB, CB, WR exclusively. All others can be filled admirably in FA.

2024 NFL Free Agent Rankings: Top 200 players set to enter free agency

We look at the 200 best players set to hit the free-agent market this offseason with free agency still months away.

www.pff.com

S is a strong class. I also think they need to add a TE and an LB

 

[Roric]

And I one MILLION percent don't want us trading down for the 4th QB and watch the Giants jump up and get their guy for a decade.

That's a wild assumption. Picking a QB is a crap shoot at best. Maybe we let them jump ahead of us and they grab the next Malik Willis.