OT: 2024 Washington Commanders thread: change we can believe in!

[ynotcaps]

News and notes from a recovering draft addict:

*Per WaPo article, belief that KK = Air Raid is flawed -- they're figuring out what will work best for the talent we have; assume that means they will take their favorite QB and build the O accordingly

*ESPN 2024 Starting QB Predictions article, Louis Riddick has JD as #2 QB solidly over DM

* W/the 2 OA pick in a draft w/ 3 potential franchise passers, which you haven't had in 30+ years, you make sure you're in position to draft one of them

*Would love Ekeler if we can get him cheap, he'd be a great receiving back complement to BRob -- and given the # of available guys, maybe we can

*OTOH, if we could Saquan for a reasonable price, a backfield w/ him and BR would keep the opposing D wondering if it's run or pass, since both can be weapons in the passing game

*Early seconds will have us in position to get a project OT (at least not a day 1 starter), or possibly starting G or C -- dream would be if Powers-Johnson (C-OR) or Barton (C/G-Duke) is there at 36

*I'm still off the mock simulators, but the tremble is worsening, and the spiders are getting bigger

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

The fact that we had a 7th rounder and an undrafted player as our OTs tells me Snyder gave up and Rivera had no f***ing idea what he was doing.

its not like a 7th rounder can’t successfully start….Eagles starting LT is exactly that….it‘s just that Rivera and Co. sucked at picking the right guys.

….and Snyder totally gave up….

 

[EroCaps]

Hoge also said Jake Eason was better than Herbert. The latter can’t even play QB.

That Mayfield was better than Josh Allen.

That Aaron Rodgers sucked.

And that Kenny Pickett was a SB caliber QB.

He’s an old school blowhard who should be taken with a grain of salt.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I’m more and more of the mindset to trade down w an Atlanta and get a bushel full of futures, and a player like Pitts (so say 1/2/3 this year, 1 in 25 and 1 in 26). That’s what I think it would take.

Then take JJ McCarthy at 8 OR, if he’s taken already, whichever tackle is left (Alt or Fashanu). And of course IF 4 QB’s, two OT’s AND MHII is all gone?

Errr…. Go for top player on your board left, or trade down again.

But the odds of that happening are slim, IMO. Either Odunze or Nabers would be great. OR even CB Arnold or Edge Turner.

Lots of options. Also TE Bowers. However if they got Pitts, wouldn’t be needed.

 

[Roric]

 

[Kazer]

I'm still split on who I prefer between Maye and Daniels (leaning Maye currently), but I find the whole conversation extremely interesting.

When I first starting following football closely (very early 2000s), the guys who were taken and successful near the top of the draft were not from the top college programs. They were guys like Roethlisberger (Miami OH); Rodgers (Cal); Rivers (NC State); and Eli Manning (Ole Miss). And it's not necessarily that the top guys were busting, but the big college programs at the time just didn't have the elite QBs for whatever reason. Josh Heupel, Ken Dorsey, Craig Krenzel, and Matt Mauck are QBs who led their teams to national championships in that timeframe.

At some point, this paradigm flipped, and there has been significant alignment between the top programs and the top QBs (with exceptions, of course) Stroud, Tagovailoa, Herbert, Lawrence, Burrow, Hurts are all guys who have been successful in the NFL after being drafted out of high-end college programs.

So, the real question to me is, what's more impressive: Being extremely good on a stacked LSU team or being very good on a talent-deprived UNC team? And which projects to NFL success?

I do not envy Adam Peters.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I’m more and more of the mindset to trade down w an Atlanta and get a bushel full of futures, and a player like Pitts (so say 1/2/3 this year, 1 in 25 and 1 in 26). That’s what I think it would take.

Then take JJ McCarthy at 8 OR, if he’s taken already, whichever tackle is left (Alt or Fashanu). And of course IF 4 QB’s, two OT’s AND MHII is all gone?

Errr…. Go for top player on your board left, or trade down again.

But the odds of that happening are slim, IMO. Either Odunze or Nabers would be great. OR even CB Arnold or Edge Turner.

Lots of options. Also TE Bowers. However if they got Pitts, wouldn’t be needed.

don’t see them giving up that 26 1st also…


I’m also not that interested in adding 1sts from teams who could be decent to average the next few years.

 

[ynotcaps]

don’t see them giving up that 26 1st also…


I’m also not that interested in adding 1sts from teams who could be decent to average the next few years.

I agree. 8 OA this year and a 12-15 OA next year don't put you in position to fill the hole that has plagued the franchise since its last SB win.

Get. The. QB!

If anything (going back to a theme of a month ago), pull a HOU: get the QB at 2 and then see if some combo of next year's 1st (in a weaker draft) plus one of our seconds or J. Allen gets us back in the 1st to get one of the LTs.

But don't move out of position to grab a sure-fire starter and potential franchise guy for a package of lots of lesser "just stuff."

 

[Ridley Simon]

I agree. 8 OA this year and a 12-15 OA next year don't put you in position to fill the hole that has plagued the franchise since its last SB win.

Get. The. QB!

If anything (going back to a theme of a month ago), pull a HOU: get the QB at 2 and then see if some combo of next year's 1st (in a weaker draft) plus one of our seconds or J. Allen gets us back in the 1st to get one of the LTs.

But don't move out of position to grab a sure-fire starter and potential franchise guy for a package of lots of lesser "just stuff."

I don’t consider JJ McCarthy “just stuff”. I honestly think he may be the best of the bunch. His mechanics sure seem to be. And he’s tall and as fast as Maye. He def needs to gain some weight, like Daniels. BUT, he’s also a lot younger

 

[g00n]

its not like a 7th rounder can’t successfully start….Eagles starting LT is exactly that….it‘s just that Rivera and Co. sucked at picking the right guys.

….and Snyder totally gave up….

If you're talking about Mailata he's a massive exception.

That's some serious deep dive draft genius going way off the board. Their RT was 4th OA in his draft year and a blue chip from Oklahoma.

Leno has been OK but they're going to have to upgrade soon. He's 32.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I don’t consider JJ McCarthy “just stuff”. I honestly think he may be the best of the bunch. His mechanics sure seem to be. And he’s tall and as fast as Maye. He def needs to gain some weight, like Daniels. BUT, he’s also a lot younger

If true, he’s going to go earlier then if he impresses.

If you're talking about Mailata he's a massive exception.

View attachment 826028

That's some serious deep dive draft genius going way off the board. Their RT was 4th OA in his draft year and a blue chip from Oklahoma.

Leno has been OK but they're going to have to upgrade soon. He's 32.

We can be smart too…their LG was a 2nd, RG a 2nd, C was a 6th….

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I don’t consider JJ McCarthy “just stuff”. I honestly think he may be the best of the bunch. His mechanics sure seem to be. And he’s tall and as fast as Maye. He def needs to gain some weight, like Daniels. BUT, he’s also a lot younger

Watch the herd today. Colin did a JJ hit piece

 

[Ridley Simon]

If true, he’s going to go earlier then if he impresses.


We can be smart too…

Yeah. JJ would go earlier than say the teens (Raiders are tied to him at 13). That’s why 8 would probably get it done. IMO.

Giants will want a WR, it seems. Titans have Levis and need OL. Cardinals have Murray and need WR.

Chargers also need offense, but not a QB. 8th should get you JJ, IMO.

Watch the herd today. Colin did a JJ hit piece

What did he say?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Yeah. JJ would go earlier than say the teens (Raiders are tied to him at 13). That’s why 8 would probably get it done. IMO.

Giants will want a WR, it seems. Titans have Levis and need OL. Cardinals have Murray and need WR.

Chargers also need offense, but not a QB. 8th should get you JJ, IMO.


What did he say?

If he’s really got the stuff, and shows out well in testing, he’ll go before 8, in a trade…


Peters just needs to do his due diligence and find our guy out of the top 3….forget all the trade down nonsense….the scenario where we trade down, get a massive haul AND a franchise QB is a nice fantasy….but probably just that.

 

[usiel]

 

[kicksavedave]

If anything (going back to a theme of a month ago), pull a HOU: get the QB at 2 and then see if some combo of next year's 1st (in a weaker draft) plus one of our seconds or J. Allen gets us back in the 1st to get one of the LTs.

I love this approach and I've pulled it off in several mocks, where we leverage a 2nd, some stuff and next years first to add a top5-7 pick and snack both Alt and Daniels/Maye. Its easy on a mock, its less easy in real life, but it would be the kind of balls on the table move that sets the rebuild into high gear.

Good GMs move their picks around from weak drafts into strong drafts and this years top ten is as stacked as any in history. This years 5-7 rounds are utter garbage where the pickings will be slim. Next years draft will be poor at the top but solid depth in the back half - mostly this is all due to Covid, the NIL and timing. Peters should be capitalizing on this and going for it now.

 

[Ridley Simon]

If he’s really got the stuff, and shows out well in testing, he’ll go before 8, in a trade…


Peters just needs to do his due diligence and find our guy….forget all the trade down nonsense….

One of the 4 QB’s should be available at 8. I don’t think there’s ever been a draft where 4 QB’s were taken in the top 7 picks?

Maybe the Trey Lance year?

Edit — that 2021 draft had 3 QB’s in top 3 (2 totally busted! — Zach Wilson and Trey Lance), and then Fields was taken 11th.

That’s the fastest 4 QB’s have been taken, to date

 

[kicksavedave]

I do not envy Adam Peters.

Yeah the QB choice between Daniels and Maye is a really tough one. Even worse if the Bears throw a curveball and take one, leaving us CW and Maye-or-JD instead. But the 9rs completely whiffed hard on Trey Lance and still became a SB contender within a few years, but getting lucky on Mr Irrelevant being a pro bowl QB is a suckers bet. They need to get this choice right.

Hopefully both QBs become great so the risk is minimal, but if one succeeds and one busts, we better be on the right side of that decision.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

One of the 4 QB’s should be available at 8. I don’t think there’s ever been a draft where 4 QB’s were taken in the top 7 picks?

Maybe the Trey Lance year?

Edit — that 2021 draft had 3 QB’s in top 3 (2 totally busted! — Zach Wilson and Trey Lance), and then Fields was taken 11th.

That’s the fastest 4 QB’s have been taken, to date

There always has to be a first…..I guess I don’t believe in the scenario you’re suggesting is all.

I don’t believe ATL is shipping 2 additional 1sts to get the 2nd QB in the draft. JJ…..I’m not near as high on him as I am the top 3 QBs today, but you also loved Harbaugh….so your opinion suddenly seems as slanted for JJ, as @Holtbyisms is towards Maye… I just hope we get the guy….don’t care who that is….just don’t F it up!

One of the 4 QB’s should be available at 8. I don’t think there’s ever been a draft where 4 QB’s were taken in the top 7 picks?

Maybe the Trey Lance year?

Edit — that 2021 draft had 3 QB’s in top 3 (2 totally busted! — Zach Wilson and Trey Lance), and then Fields was taken 11th.

That’s the fastest 4 QB’s have been taken, to date

There were two drafts with 4 taken in the top 10, last was 2018….best I could find.

 

[bacchist]

Yeah the QB choice between Daniels and Maye is a really tough one. Even worse if the Bears throw a curveball and take one, leaving us CW and Maye-or-JD instead. But the 9rs completely whiffed hard on Trey Lance and still became a SB contender within a few years, but getting lucky on Mr Irrelevant being a pro bowl QB is a suckers bet. They need to get this choice right.

Hopefully both QBs become great so the risk is minimal, but if one succeeds and one busts, we better be on the right side of that decision.

Not sure it's fair to say they whiffed on Trey Lance. Anybody can have a season ending injury at any time. Just the nature of the game. Brock Purdy definitely made the most of his opportunities, but I wouldn't say Trey Lance was a poor pick or anything. Luck has a lot to do with how that situation played out.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Yeah. JJ would go earlier than say the teens (Raiders are tied to him at 13). That’s why 8 would probably get it done. IMO.

Giants will want a WR, it seems. Titans have Levis and need OL. Cardinals have Murray and need WR.

Chargers also need offense, but not a QB. 8th should get you JJ, IMO.


What did he say?

Was trying to find the clip but mostly That he is a small frame and not is a fake 6'1. And the Michigan didnt trust him to throw and had game where they ran every play

 

[ynotcaps]

I don't see it on McCarthy. Watching from the OSU game through the end he looked good, but not really good to great. He seems closer to Kirk Cousins than Justin Herbert.

ESPN piece predicting each team's '24 QB had JJ in LV, I believe, and had his comp as Jake Plummer. Sure, it's ESPN and not a scouting service, but when the top 3 comps are Caleb/Mahomes, JD/Lamar, DM/Herbert, Jake effing Plummer does not strike me as an acceptable trade-down replacement.

 

[RedRocking]

I generally like Daniel Jeremiah, he actually has team sources.

 

[ynotcaps]

I generally like Daniel Jeremiah, he actually has team sources.

And I one MILLION percent don't want us trading down for the 4th QB and watch the Giants jump up and get their guy for a decade.

 

[Ridley Simon]

There always has to be a first…..I guess I don’t believe in the scenario you’re suggesting is all.

I don’t believe ATL is shipping 2 additional 1sts to get the 2nd QB in the draft. JJ…..I’m not near as high on him as I am the top 3 QBs today, but you also loved Harbaugh….so your opinion suddenly seems as slanted for JJ, as @Holtbyisms is towards Maye… I just hope we get the guy….don’t care who that is….just don’t F it up!


There were two drafts with 4 taken in the top 10, last was 2018….best I could find.

Good pull on the 2018 draft. Ironically, it was 7OA and 32OA that easily has the most impact. 1OA has been “ok”, while 3OA and 10OA were total busts.

Anyway, I’d be pretty surprised to see 4 QB’s in top 7. So that’s why I’m bullish on a trade down to accrue MOAR assets. They need as much as they can — IN THIS DRAFT — to fill holes.

Another scenario would be trading down w AZ. They’ve got 4, 27, 35, 66, 71 & 90. Would love to see some combo of their picks for the 2