OT: 2024 Washington Commanders thread: change we can believe in!

[hockeykicker]

 

[John Price]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2024/insider/story/_/id/39600424/2024-nfl-mock-draft-mel-kiper-new-first-round-predictions-32-picks-qb-fits

likes Daniels at 2

 

[g00n]

See, now this is the sh*t that terrifies me - drafting a smaller, weaker armed version of Fields.

The Nate Tice (from the Athletic) article referenced is a really good read.

I’m trying to be excited about both JD & DM. And to be clear, I have plenty of concerns about DM too. His mechanics, head-scratching plays, and the inconsistency with his accuracy (when he’s off, he is OFF and spraying the ball all over the field).

This kind of dovetails with my first look at JD, which was his highlights were all runs and bombs. I get that's what you usually put in a highlight reel for a mobile QB, but seeing a stat like that is concerning.

Does it fit the "he reads defenses" angle? Seems unlikely that all the DCs in the NCAA the last several years just clogged the middle of the field against him and totally locked it down so he threw to the perimeter or ran.

More likely those were his go-to plays and they kept using them until the other side could stop them. Could have been an OC decision, too.

Isn't that what college offenses do? Force the other side to defend their strength, and exploit whatever weakness they can find until it doesn't work anymore?

All of these guys work from the shotgun, too. That's another complicating factor. Starting from the SG predisposes to a perimeter offense or RPO.

 

[dreadpirateroberts]

 

[John Price]

 

[Roric]

Incoming snyder meddling comments

Josh needs to understand, we are a deeply scarred fanbase, and easily spooked.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If I was the owner and we were about to pick the face of the franchise, I’d be in those meetings also. I just wouldn’t make the pick myself, I’d let the football guys decide ultimately.

 

[ynotcaps]

This kind of dovetails with my first look at JD, which was his highlights were all runs and bombs. I get that's what you usually put in a highlight reel for a mobile QB, but seeing a stat like that is concerning.

Does it fit the "he reads defenses" angle? Seems unlikely that all the DCs in the NCAA the last several years just clogged the middle of the field against him and totally locked it down so he threw to the perimeter or ran.

More likely those were his go-to plays and they kept using them until the other side could stop them. Could have been an OC decision, too.

Isn't that what college offenses do? Force the other side to defend their strength, and exploit whatever weakness they can find until it doesn't work anymore?

All of these guys work from the shotgun, too. That's another complicating factor. Starting from the SG predisposes to a perimeter offense or RPO.

Yeah, I think that's another symptom of looking for something to criticize.

I give zero shits about Kiper and his eval's, but in this video with Yates where they do a top-12 mock, Field provides the following stat on JD in '23:
Against the blitz: 71.1% completion, 17 TDs, 0 Int
Against zone: 77.6% completion, 2400 yds, 20 TDs, 0 Int

The knocks on JD feel like the things fans do because we have nothing but time before the draft, so we tear these guys apart. Yes, he's 23. Yes, he exploded in his 5th year at his second school. But to reframe that "bad" argument, here's the truth: he improved every year, he made a big stride moving from a lesser program (and coach) at ASU to a bigger, better program with higher demands and much tougher competition (and a much tougher coach). In his second year with that program and coach, he exploded.

So what do we know? He can pick up systems, he accepts coaching, and he puts it together on the field against better competition.
Everything we're hoping Maye can do, Jaden's already done.

I get the size thing, it makes me nervous, too. But I'm not gonna' let BobG3 scare me away from a skinny demonstrated stud to a "prototypical" big guy who we're hoping can demonstrate it when he moves up to the next level.

If I was the owner and we were about to pick the face of the franchise, I’d be in those meetings also. I just wouldn’t make the pick myself, I’d let the football guys decide ultimately.

Yeah. I also think he's getting a lot of education on a new sport (at least in terms of his investment portfolio.)

I have no problem with this.

 

[EroCaps]

See, now this is the sh*t that terrifies me - drafting a smaller, weaker armed version of Fields.

The Nate Tice (from the Athletic) article referenced is a really good read.

I’m trying to be excited about both JD & DM. And to be clear, I have plenty of concerns about DM too. His mechanics, head-scratching plays, and the inconsistency with his accuracy (when he’s off, he is OFF and spraying the ball all over the field).

The difference, again, is that Daniels has 3 years of XP on Maye.

A 21 year old QB playing for a subpar college team should have inconsistencies in his game. It’s what he does well and projects to do well at the NFL level that’s important.

Show me a twiggy running QB that’s gotten through the thresher that is the NFL season and playoffs and won a SB. I’ll wait.

Daniels WILL get hurt and he will get sacked and that pick will make everyone cringe for 15 years as Drake Maye goes on to a successful career with the Pats or Giants or whomever.

 

[ynotcaps]

The difference, again, is that Daniels has 3 years of XP on Maye.

A 21 year old QB playing for a subpar college team should have inconsistencies in his game. It’s what he does well and projects to do well at the NFL level that’s important.

Show me a twiggy running QB that’s gotten through the thresher that is the NFL season and playoffs and won a SB. I’ll wait.

Daniels WILL get hurt and he will get sacked and that pick will make everyone cringe for 15 years as Drake Maye goes on to a successful career with the Pats or Giants or whomever.

The difference, again, is that you're projecting hope and belief onto a kid that he will turn into what the other guy is.

Show me you know the difference between RB and QB. I'll wait.

Now the fact that you used #ALLCAPS that JD will get hurt, I guess that makes it a fait accompli, and there's no doubt that DM will make us regret it for 15 years if we pass on him. So there's that.

 

[Ridley Simon]

See, now this is the sh*t that terrifies me - drafting a smaller, weaker armed version of Fields.

The Nate Tice (from the Athletic) article referenced is a really good read.

I’m trying to be excited about both JD & DM. And to be clear, I have plenty of concerns about DM too. His mechanics, head-scratching plays, and the inconsistency with his accuracy (when he’s off, he is OFF and spraying the ball all over the field).

Which is why we should trade down and take JJ!!!

 

[ynotcaps]

Which is why we should trade down and take JJ!!!

Why would you trade down to draft Jake Plummer?!

 

[RedRocking]

This kind of dovetails with my first look at JD, which was his highlights were all runs and bombs. I get that's what you usually put in a highlight reel for a mobile QB, but seeing a stat like that is concerning.

Does it fit the "he reads defenses" angle? Seems unlikely that all the DCs in the NCAA the last several years just clogged the middle of the field against him and totally locked it down so he threw to the perimeter or ran.

More likely those were his go-to plays and they kept using them until the other side could stop them. Could have been an OC decision, too.

Isn't that what college offenses do? Force the other side to defend their strength, and exploit whatever weakness they can find until it doesn't work anymore?

All of these guys work from the shotgun, too. That's another complicating factor. Starting from the SG predisposes to a perimeter offense or RPO.

He had two elite WRs in Nabers and Thomas on the outside. So to some extent it makes sense that he’d be targeting them outside the numbers. If anything, opposing teams should be bracketing those 2 guys and forcing JD to the MOF. However, watching his games, he passes up open guys in the middle of the field to run a lot (and the numbers support this).

And his o-line was great - so he’s bailing on clean pockets and running through big holes. A lot of times it was the smart play because his legs are such a weapon. But it’s concerning - what is he gonna do in NFL RZs where you have to use the whole field and throw in tight windows?

Again, I encourage everyone to read this Tice piece on JD. He can explain this better than I ever could. People have had over a year to pick at CW’s and Maye’s game, so it’s only fair to do the same with JD now that his star has risen:

Jayden Daniels' NFL Draft stock has risen more than anyone, but will he live up to it?

Daniels went from a mid-round prospect to a potential top-five pick after his magnificent Heisman season at LSU. There are some concerns with the finer points of his game though.

sports.yahoo.com

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I feel like Maye somehow has fallen to #3 and JD is moving up all the charts

If the bears take JD 1. I think we have to run to Caleb and im a Maye guy

 

[Roric]

If the bears took JD and we DIDN'T run to the podium for Caleb I would never forgive Peters

 

[Neil Racki]

Daniels vs Maye is really good study on modern QBs imo.

Maye is the more on schedule QB, pocket passer who can scramble and run when needed
Daniels is the more of the 1st read aint open, tuck it and run, can change sacks into 5-50 yard gains

I prefer the pocket passer who can scramble vs the 50% passer 50% runner

BUT as I learned with Heinike .. avoiding a sack is worth like .5 to 1.5 points on the scoreboard. Turning a 8 yard sack loss play into a 5 yard gain is huge. its a drive saver, you get what 8 drives a game.

Off schedule is now a big slice of the top QB pie chart. I gotta get used to that. Mahomes does it all. On schedule, off schedule.

I trust the brain trusts .. just take one of the 3 QBs, dont overthink this.

 

[kicksavedave]

Incoming snyder meddling comments

Josh needs to understand, we are a deeply scarred fanbase, and easily spooked.

If I was the owner and we were about to pick the face of the franchise, I’d be in those meetings also. I just wouldn’t make the pick myself, I’d let the football guys decide ultimately.

I look at this more like, we have a new NFL owner, who hired a new first time GM, and a new HC and new OC, so maybe he wants to evaluate THEM, more so than he wants to evaluate the QBs. They all need to be aligned, so if one of them pounds the table for this guy, or that guy, the owner should be able to figure out which guy got it right and which guy was wrong. If the HC and the GM have different opinions on the QB, which happened a lot during the Gibbs/Beathard era, then the Owner (JKC) typically would provide the tie breaker, or at least be able to grade the outcome based on the differences of opinion. If I'm the new owner in this situation, I'm not sitting at home hoping it all works out, I'm evaluation the heck out of every last detail. The staff, not the players, specifically.

Dan Snyder would in there telling the staff who he wanted them to pick. I suspect Josh is there figuring out which of his staff know the best how to get to the right decision.

 

[kicksavedave]

The difference, again, is that Daniels has 3 years of XP on Maye.

A 21 year old QB playing for a subpar college team should have inconsistencies in his game. It’s what he does well and projects to do well at the NFL level that’s important.

Show me a twiggy running QB that’s gotten through the thresher that is the NFL season and playoffs and won a SB. I’ll wait.

Daniels WILL get hurt and he will get sacked and that pick will make everyone cringe for 15 years as Drake Maye goes on to a successful career with the Pats or Giants or whomever.

 

[bacchist]

Just as somebody who finds the game interesting on many different levels, I think being at those meetings would be fascinating. I'd love a front row seat to it all. Obviously he's not just a spectator, but I can't fault him for taking an interest.

 

[kicksavedave]

In college as a 5 year starter. His sack rate is terrible and he won’t get away with half of that shit in the NFL.

Daniels would be a catastrophic pick.

You know how I know you're FOS? Your information is just wrong. Please double check your sources.

Here are screenshots of the stats for all three players. The specific things that you claim, his "sack rate" is terrible, its demonstrably false.

Specifically, JD was sacked on 20.2% of his pressures. Maye was 19.5, CW was 23.2. Simply put, if Daniels sack to pressure ratio is awful, then so is each of the other two top QBs. JD got sacked 21 times in 408 drop backs, for a .051%, roughly 1 in 20 times. DM got sacked 29 times in 506 drop backs, for .057%, which is slightly higher, roughly 1 in 17.5 times. CW was sacked 35 times in 455 drop backs, for a huge .076%, roughly every 13 times he dropped back to pass. There's no evidence or statistic which shows JD's pressure to sack ratio is anything other than right in the middle of the big three QBs, in fact is the best of the three QBs.

Further...

JD's throw aways was only 5, Maye was 21, CW 24, meaning under pressure, those guys threw the ball away more than JD, but yet those guys also threw interceptions or would be interceptions at a higher rate than JD (JD TWP% = 1.6%, DM 1.9%, CW 3.6%)

Finally, the Big Time Throws (BTT and BTT%) under pressure went like this: JD 6 for 11.3%, DM 7 for 6.9%, CW 10 for 8.3%). So when they were under pressure, JD threw the ball away less often but made big time plays more often as a percentage of times they were under pressure.

Simply put, I don't know what you're watching or quoting, but you're incorrect about JD under pressure. Statistically, he's the best of the top three under pressure, and vs CW its not even close.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I look at this more like, we have a new NFL owner, who hired a new first time GM, and a new HC and new OC, so maybe he wants to evaluate THEM, more so than he wants to evaluate the QBs. They all need to be aligned, so if one of them pounds the table for this guy, or that guy, the owner should be able to figure out which guy got it right and which guy was wrong. If the HC and the GM have different opinions on the QB, which happened a lot during the Gibbs/Beathard era, then the Owner (JKC) typically would provide the tie breaker, or at least be able to grade the outcome based on the differences of opinion. If I'm the new owner in this situation, I'm not sitting at home hoping it all works out, I'm evaluation the heck out of every last detail. The staff, not the players, specifically.

Dan Snyder would in there telling the staff who he wanted them to pick. I suspect Josh is there figuring out which of his staff know the best how to get to the right decision.

It’s probably both, but come on, it’s THE franchise decision. Something that could have ramifications for the next decade plus….He’s checking out the QB process primarily IMO, but sure, he’s probably just absorbing what all these guys he hired are doing….

You know how I know you're FOS? You're information is just wrong. Please double check your sources.

Here are screenshots of the stats for all three players. The specific things that you claim, his "sack rate" is terrible, its demonstrably false.

Specifically, JS was sacked on 20.2% of his pressures. Maye was 19.5, CW was 23.2. Simply put, if Daniels sack to pressure ratio is awful, then so is each of the other two top QBs. JD got sacked 21 times in 408 drop backs, for a .051%, roughly 1 in 20 times. DM got sacked 29 times in drop backs, for .057%, which is slightly higher, roughly 1 in 17.5 times. CW was sacked 35 times in 455 drop backs, for a huge .076%, roughly every 13 times he dropped back to pass. There's no evidence or statistic which shows JD's pressure to sack ratio is anything other than right in the middle of the big three QBs, in fact is the best of the three QBs.

Further...

JD's throw aways was only 5, Maye was 21, CW 24, meaning under pressure, those guys threw the ball away more than JD, but yet those guys also threw interceptions or would be interceptions at a higher rate than JD (JD TWP% = 1.6%, DM 1.9%, CW 3.6%)

Finally, the Big Time Throws (BTT and BTT%) under pressure went like this: JD 6 for 11.3%, DM 7 for 6.9%, CW 10 for 8.3%). So when they were under pressure, JD threw the ball away less often but made more big time players more often as a percentage of times they were under pressure.

Simply put, I don't what you're watching or quoting, but you're incorrect about JD under pressure. Statistically, he's the best of the top three under pressure, and vs CW its not even close.

Love the passion for the debate Dave!

 

[kicksavedave]

Oh yeah, under pressure, JD threw ZERO interceptions. Maye threw 5, CW 4. So, as a percentage of their overall drop backs, JD is getting sacked less, throwing interceptions less (none), throwing the ball away less, and making Big Time throws more, than the other two guys. But yeah, he's terrible under pressure *rolleyes*

Take a close look at who had throwaways under pressure. Which one had 5, which one had 18 and which one had 22? Again, also compare that to their sacks under pressure and interceptions under pressure. I'll wait.

 

[usiel]

All three QBs have some potential gremlins at this point. It is just going to be on the coaching staff to properly develop them and iron out all their specific issues.

Still vaciliating between JD and DM a bit. Not really paying attention to CW at this point since it looks like the Bears will pick him. Will wait to their pro days are done to make my final call.

 

[kicksavedave]

It’s probably both, but come on, it’s THE franchise decision. Something that could have ramifications for the next decade plus….He’s checking out the QB process primarily IMO, but sure, he’s probably just absorbing what all these guys he hired are doing….


Love the passion for the debate Dave!

Yeah, I mean as long as he's not there telling the football guys what to think, but rather, observing how they already think., its all good. As @bacchist says, I'd LOVE to be a fly on the wall here, but my resume won't get me in that room, ever

 

[g00n]

combine coverage starts on NFL network at 3pm fwiw

Chase Daniel on the channel rn gushing about JD with massive hyperbole