OT: 2024 Washington Commanders thread: change we can believe in!

[Ovechkins Wodka]

We have a shot at one of the highest graded quarterbacks in the last decade. Yes, you f***ing take it.

We’ll figure out the offensive line after that we have lots of other picks. No one is even a standout

 

[Ajax1995]

Maybe some people are old enough to remember when a HoF offensive line ( ) helped three different journeyman QBs win Super Bowls for the Redskins.

Theismann was just a journeyman QB in your opinion? The guy won a league MVP for God’s sake…

 

[Bananas]

Maybe some people are old enough to remember when a HoF offensive line ( ) helped three different journeyman QBs win Super Bowls for the Redskins.

This is the reason . Yet people somehow forget that we have had Samuels, Jensen, Trent Williams, Morgan Moses, etc and still sucked the entire time.

It’s also the Joe Gibbs factor, yet people also forget that he was an outlier and the only coach to win a Super Bowl with 3 different QBs.

It’s much much easier to win if you have a Brady, Mahomes, Manning, Rodgers, Favre, Rothlisberger etc etc etc. Just pick a damned quarterback. It’s not hard to see the benefit if the player turns out to be as good as you’re hoping.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Theismann was just a journeyman QB in your opinion? The guy won a league MVP for God’s sake…

Yeah….I was gonna argue that comment, but didn’t bother….

 

[kicksavedave]

Theismann was just a journeyman QB in your opinion? The guy won a league MVP for God’s sake…

Yeah….I was gonna argue that comment, but didn’t bother….

Theismann was absolutely a journeyman level QB until he started playing behind the Hogs. He was drafted by Miami 99th overall in the 4th round in 1971 but played in the CFL instead for 3 years. He joined the Redskins in 74, as a punt returner, for two years. He was a backup QB in 76, 77. He didn't win the starting job in DC until 78, seven years after he was drafted, but only once Billy Kilmer retired. He had a ~.500 record and no playoff appearances as a starter, until.... Joe Gibbs and the Hogs began a thing in 1982. Then he made two pro bowls and won the MVP in 1983, 12 years after he was drafted. But he was 100% a journeyman level QB prior to that. This is indisputable, it's facts.

 

[kicksavedave]

This is the reason . Yet people somehow forget that we have had Samuels, Jensen, Trent Williams, Morgan Moses, etc and still sucked the entire time.

It’s also the Joe Gibbs factor, yet people also forget that he was an outlier and the only coach to win a Super Bowl with 3 different QBs.

It’s much much easier to win if you have a Brady, Mahomes, Manning, Rodgers, Favre, Rothlisberger etc etc etc. Just pick a damned quarterback. It’s not hard to see the benefit if the player turns out to be as good as you’re hoping.

Yes, it's absolutely easier to win if you have a great QB. But even those great QBs aren't winning shit behind a terrible offensive line, which we have. The one common denominator behind all those Gibbs Super Bowls, was the Hogs, which was always pretty much the best OL in the league during his entire coaching tenure. Everything else changed and they still won Super Bowls, but the Hogs were the only constant. So yeah, I'm not forgetting anything

They're going to draft the QB, and I'm fine with that. But the notion that people who want Joe Alt are idiots or something, is just bullshit. It's grounded in real history, whereas some fans have only been around for the dysfunctional Snyder years.

 

[Bananas]

Yes, it's absolutely easier to win if you have a great QB. But even those great QBs aren't winning shit behind a terrible offensive line, which we have. The one common denominator behind all those Gibbs Super Bowls, was the Hogs, which was always pretty much the best OL in the league during his entire coaching tenure. Everything else changed and they still won Super Bowls, but the Hogs were the only constant. So yeah, I'm not forgetting anything

They're going to draft the QB, and I'm fine with that. But the notion that people who want Joe Alt are Pejorative Slured or something, is just bullshit. It's grounded in real history, whereas some fans have only been around for the dysfunctional Snyder years.

And what has been the common denominator in the NFL by and large since Joe Gibbs and the Hogs? Are we certain that Joe Alt will become a HoFer?

The idea of being too chickenshit to draft an extremely highly touted QB prospect after decades of having bad QB play completely derail us is both moronic and yellow bellied.

So yes, people who are latching on to yesteryear and saying pass on QB are worthy of derision. It’s a choice only a simpleton would make unless neither Maye nor Daniels moved the needle, you simply have to draft one of them and take your shot.

Can you imagine passing on the next Allen or Mahomes or Lamar for a bust at LT?

You draft a QB. End of freaking story.

 

[kicksavedave]

Back to the "which QB" debate. This article on how Brock Purdy has changed some draft philosophy, is interesting. Hint, it's experience. Starting a lot of games in college helps a QB be more ready to start in the NFL.

This is just one more data point for discussion in the Maye vs Daniels talk. How much does 55 starts vs 26 matter?

How Purdy's NFL ascension has altered QB draft evaluations

NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah explained how Brock Purdy’s rapid ascencion has altered how college quarterbacks are evaluated ahead of the NFL Draft.

www.nbcsportsbayarea.com

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Back to the "which QB" debate. This article on how Brock Purdy has changed some draft philosophy, is interesting. Hint, it's experience. Starting a lot of games in college helps a QB be more ready to start in the NFL.

This is just one more data point due discussion in the Maye vs Daniels talk. How much does 55 starts vs 26 matter?

How Purdy's NFL ascension has altered QB draft evaluations

NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah explained how Brock Purdy’s rapid ascencion has altered how college quarterbacks are evaluated ahead of the NFL Draft.

www.nbcsportsbayarea.com

Getting a HOF LT in Trent Williams makes alot of QBs play better. I still cant believe we gave him away for a 3rd and a 5th. Then trading them Chase Young aswell for a 3rd round comp pick is another stinger and shows why we need to take the best QB at #2

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Listening and reading to Commanders fans in droves talk about trading out of the 2 spot and taking an OL has renewed my belief that they’re the dumbest f***ing group of fans in the NFL.

How did it get this way? Years of losing? DC public schooling? A general dicklessness that comes with being a lifelong bureaucrat?

Yeah, agreed. There’s not a lot that’s binary in sports but in football one thing is pretty black and white and that’s you either have a QB or you don’t. Take Maye and hope you don’t need to talk about the QB position for another decade.

 

[g00n]

Back to the "which QB" debate. This article on how Brock Purdy has changed some draft philosophy, is interesting. Hint, it's experience. Starting a lot of games in college helps a QB be more ready to start in the NFL.

This is just one more data point due discussion in the Maye vs Daniels talk. How much does 55 starts vs 26 matter?

How Purdy's NFL ascension has altered QB draft evaluations

NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah explained how Brock Purdy’s rapid ascencion has altered how college quarterbacks are evaluated ahead of the NFL Draft.

www.nbcsportsbayarea.com

Tom Brady started 25 games at Michigan. Joe Montana played 27. Mahomes 32. Marino started 34.

Tim Tebow played in 55 and started about 3/4 of those.

There is no One Thing that makes the decision easy. If there was everyone would know it already.

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[Roric]

Does that mean we have even more room to sign FAs?

 

[kicksavedave]

Does that mean we have even more room to sign FAs?

Yes but so does everyone else. It only means salaries will go up faster than expected.

 

[Roric]

Yes but so does everyone else. It only means salaries will go up faster than expected.

OTC has updated our cap (Cap + Rollover) to $263m. That's $87m in cap space.

That gives us $93.5m in cap space once the obvious cutting of Logan Thomas occurs.

 

[kicksavedave]

OTC has updated our cap (Cap + Rollover) to $263m. That's $87m in cap space.

That gives us $93.5m in cap space once the obvious cutting of Logan Thomas occurs.

Yeah I think we have the most money to spend this year, but the increase doesn't really help us any more than it helps other teams. I'm really curious how this new ownership spends in FA this year. I actually hope they don't go for all the splashy big names at big contracts. Those work out so rarely.

 

[Ajax1995]

Theismann was absolutely a journeyman level QB until he started playing behind the Hogs. He was drafted by Miami 99th overall in the 4th round in 1971 but played in the CFL instead for 3 years. He joined the Redskins in 74, as a punt returner, for two years. He was a backup QB in 76, 77. He didn't win the starting job in DC until 78, seven years after he was drafted, but only once Billy Kilmer retired. He had a ~.500 record and no playoff appearances as a starter, until.... Joe Gibbs and the Hogs began a thing in 1982. Then he made two pro bowls and won the MVP in 1983, 12 years after he was drafted. But he was 100% a journeyman level QB prior to that. This is indisputable, it's facts.

I think you are being very selective with your facts here. By your definition Rodgers was a journeyman until he won a superbowl and then an MVP the next year.

The ‘Skins traded a 1st round pick for Theismann, they didn’t do that for a punt returner. He sat behind a veteran for a while because that was something that was commonly done back then. He returned punts because he was decent at it and wanted to get on the field and help the team. You’d prefer he just carried a clipboard instead?

And Gibbs got there in ‘81 and many of the original Hogs were already there or joined at the same time. They went 8-8. Then the weird 9 game strike season happened, they won a championship and then Joe ‘Dilfer’ Theismann lucked into an MVP apparently.

I must have missed Schroeder‘s, Williams’ and Rypien‘s MVPs, since they also played for Gibbs and behind the Hogs…

 

[kicksavedave]

Tom Brady started 25 games at Michigan. Joe Montana played 27. Mahomes 32. Marino started 34.

Tim Tebow played in 55 and started about 3/4 of those.

There is no One Thing that makes the decision easy. If there was everyone would know it already.

Yep, which is why I said its "one more data point in the discussion".

I have read in the past where some smart personnel people said the one most critical telling attribute for success from college to the NFL is accuracy. Not just the percentage, but also ball placement, which is nearly impossible to really statisticalize (sp?), you just gotta watch the film.

 

[StreetHawk]

Back to the "which QB" debate. This article on how Brock Purdy has changed some draft philosophy, is interesting. Hint, it's experience. Starting a lot of games in college helps a QB be more ready to start in the NFL.

This is just one more data point for discussion in the Maye vs Daniels talk. How much does 55 starts vs 26 matter?

How Purdy's NFL ascension has altered QB draft evaluations

NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah explained how Brock Purdy’s rapid ascencion has altered how college quarterbacks are evaluated ahead of the NFL Draft.

www.nbcsportsbayarea.com

55 vs 26 matters to a certain point.

I’d break down Daniels into his ASU and LSU film. If you like the ASU Daniels more than Maye then you’re going to love the LSU Daniels even more. If however you like the Maye film more than ASU Daniels but the LSU Daniels more than Maye then you need to determine whether Maye catches up or surpasses Daniels when he gains more experience. And if you like Maye more than LSU Daniels, then you take Maye.

The number of starts does help the QBs without amazing traits as they have to manage the game more than the top 5-10 picks do who can rely on something to bail them out of tough situations.

 

[kicksavedave]

I think you are being very selective with your facts here. By your definition Rodgers was a journeyman until he won a superbowl and then an MVP the next year.

The ‘Skins traded a 1st round pick for Theismann, they didn’t do that for a punt returner. He sat behind a veteran for a while because that was something that was commonly done back then. He returned punts because he was decent at it and wanted to get on the field and help the team. You’d prefer he just carried a clipboard instead?

And Gibbs got there in ‘81 and many of the original Hogs were already there or joined at the same time. They went 8-8. Then the weird 9 game strike season happened, they won a championship and then Joe ‘Dilfer’ Theismann lucked into an MVP apparently.

I must have missed Schroeder‘s, Williams’ and Rypien‘s MVPs, since they also played for Gibbs and behind the Hogs…

I stopped taking this serious when you compared Rogers to Theisman as if I think they're the same. If you're going to put words in my mouth, get them right. Rogers was a first round pick and made the pro bowl 4 years after he was drafted, with the team that drafted him. Theisman, was nothing of the sort. The team that drafted him, didn't even sign him. He spent 4 years in the CFL. He didn't earn the starting job until 8 years after he was drafted. The difference between them is so obvious, you trying to conflate them is silly.

Also, George Allen traded all his draft picks for various players. The year he traded a 1st for Theisman, he also traded their 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th round picks. They traded their first 4 picks in the year prior and two years after that. In 72 they traded their first 7 picks. Its how they operated - they didn't bother with rookies. And sure, Theisman was a CFL MVP. So was Doug Flutie. Is Flutie not an NFL Journeyman?

I don't know why you're taking it so personal. Theisman was a GREAT Redskin QB.... for 3-4 years... under Joe Gibbs and behind the Hogs. But Jay Schroeder also put up pro bowl numbers the very next year he took over for Joe T. Doug Williams and Mark Rypien need no explanation.

The point is simple and it seems to have sailed over your head. A GREAT OL can make even average QBs look great. The opposite is simply not true. Great QBs under constant duress do not play like great QBs.

 

[Bananas]

55 vs 26 matters to a certain point.

I’d break down Daniels into his ASU and LSU film. If you like the ASU Daniels more than Maye then you’re going to love the LSU Daniels even more. If whoever you like the Maye film more than ASU Daniels but the LSU Daniels more than Maye then you need to determine whether Maye catches up or surpasses Daniels when he gains more experience.

The number of starts does help the QBs without amazing traits as they have to manage the game more than the top 5-10 picks do who can rely on something to bail them out of tough situations.

There is also strong evidence to support that overagers at the college level usually do not pan out into NFL QBs. It’s an obvious advantage that somewhat skews their performance. Joe Burrow is a notable exception, but he was only a two year starter.

I’m of the mind that current Daniels is better than current Maye, but I’d project Maye to continue to improve and I think his size and play-style is better suited to longevity at the NFL-level as well. Ultimately, I’d select Maye but it’s close enough that I can understand the temptation to go Daniels instead.

 

[Neil Racki]

When it comes to top tier players .. money should never be the obstacle.

Get premier players
Keep premier players

Cowboys/Saints .. all these other teams us frugal teams have been waiting to be bit . never getting f***ing bit.

Cap in the NFL is napkin math where it gets massaged to be whatever you need it to be.

Weve constantly spent under the cap .. for no f***ing reason. If you carry over 10M in cap space every year and dont actually use it = then its just unspent cap that you roll over every year

Williams > Maye > Daniels

imo

 

[Bananas]

I stopped taking this serious when you compared Rogers to Theisman as if I think they're the same. If you're going to put words in my mouth, get them right. Rogers was a first round pick and made the pro bowl 4 years after he was drafted, with the team that drafted him. Theisman, was nothing of the sort. The team that drafted him, didn't even sign him. He spent 4 years in the CFL. He didn't earn the starting job until 8 years after he was drafted. The difference between them is so obvious, you trying to conflate them is silly.

I don't know why you're taking it so personal. Theisman was a GREAT Redskin QB.... for 3-4 years... under Joe Gibbs and behind the Hogs. But Jay Schroeder also put up pro bowl numbers the very next year he took over for Joe T. Doug Williams and Mark Rypien need no explanation.

The point is simple and it seems to have sailed over your head. A GREAT OL can make even average QBs look great. The opposite is simply not true. Great QBs under constant duress do not play like great QBs.

So since the Hogs, when were the offensive lineman lead dynasties in the modern NFL? And shall we stack them up against the QB-centric teams of this era? Don’t get me wrong , OL is super important, but it’s almost a moot point if your QB sucks. This is also not taking into account, that on some levels, taking sacks is a QB stat. Jacoby Brissett was slicing and dicing in the small sample size last year with the exact same talent surrounding him as Howell. The Cowboys haven’t won jack during an era of probably having the best OL in the NFL for a solid 5 year stretch. I could go on and on. Meanwhile most of the SB winning teams had elite QBs or a tier just below elite. For every Hostetler win there’s like 6 or 7 Brady or Manning or Mahomes wins.

 

[kicksavedave]

There is also strong evidence to support that overagers at the college level usually do not pan out into NFL QBs. It’s an obvious advantage that somewhat skews their performance. Joe Burrow is a notable exception, but he was only a two year starter.

I’m of the mind that current Daniels is better than current Maye, but I’d project Maye to continue to improve and I think his size and play-style is better suited to longevity at the NFL-level as well. Ultimately, I’d select Maye but it’s close enough that I can understand the temptation to go Daniels instead.

Over agers like Wenke, who was what, 27? Daniels is 23. Typical Senior age is 22. But yes, its another data point in the decision process. Adam Peters is big on analytics, so I'm sure he's got the nerds drawing up the algorithm already.

As far as Daniels now vs Maye's future, thats the gist of it. We are betting on Maye to improve to Daniels level, whereas Daniels is already there. There's no guarantee Maye does improve. He even regressed this year. There is also strong statistical evidence that QBs who regress prior to their draft year don't succeed in the NFL. Dan Marino being about the only real exception I can recall.

 

[StreetHawk]

There is also strong evidence to support that overagers at the college level usually do not pan out into NFL QBs. It’s an obvious advantage that somewhat skews their performance. Joe Burrow is a notable exception, but he was only a two year starter.

I’m of the mind that current Daniels is better than current Maye, but I’d project Maye to continue to improve and I think his size and play-style is better suited to longevity at the NFL-level as well. Ultimately, I’d select Maye but it’s close enough that I can understand the temptation to go Daniels instead.

That's why I think its' best to break Daniels down into his ASU and LSU film. ASU film is the same age range as Maye. So, it's a lot of projection if you like Maye more the ASU Daniels, but LSU Daniels more than Maye. Can/will Maye get to LSU Daniels' level? Something you have to project.

Burrow, I agree, it's not as much age, as to starts. He didn't play for like 3 years in college. Brady was the same as back in those days, kids had to sit and wait.