OT: 2024 Washington Commanders thread: change we can believe in!

[kicksavedave]

So since the Hogs, when were the offensive lineman lead dynasties in the modern NFL? And shall we stack them up against the QB-centric teams of this era? Don’t get me wrong , OL is super important, but it’s almost a moot point if your QB sucks. This is also not taking into account, that on some levels, taking sacks is a QB stat. Jacoby Brissett was slicing and dicing in the small sample size last year with the exact same talent surrounding him as Howell. The Cowboys haven’t won jack during an era of probably having the best OL in the NFL for a solid 5 year stretch. I could go on and on. Meanwhile most of the SB winning teams had elite QBs or a tier just below elite. For every Hostetler win there’s like 6 or 7 Brady or Manning or Mahomes wins.

Hey, I don't actually need convincing that taking the QB is the right move here. I will love whichever QB we take. I just think the idea of trading back and taking the OL, isn't so ridiculous as its being made out to be. It really depends on how the staff actually views Daniels and Maye. If either one are worth the 2 overall, or very close to it, then they should draft the QB. But what if their analysis is that neither one are right for the team at that slot for whatever reason? Some people will call them morons for passing on them, but we won't know the truth for 4-6 years typically.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

And what has been the common denominator in the NFL by and large since Joe Gibbs and the Hogs? Are we certain that Joe Alt will become a HoFer?

The idea of being too chickenshit to draft an extremely highly touted QB prospect after decades of having bad QB play completely derail us is both moronic and yellow bellied.

So yes, people who are latching on to yesteryear and saying pass on QB are worthy of derision. It’s a choice only a simpleton would make unless neither Maye nor Daniels moved the needle, you simply have to draft one of them and take your shot.

Can you imagine passing on the next Allen or Mahomes or Lamar for a bust at LT?

You draft a QB. End of freaking story.

Rack him Jim…

 

[g00n]

I think the point most get intuitively is it's much harder to hit on a franchise QB in later rounds than it is to cobble together a top 10 OL from later round picks and free agents.

If you have an early pick and a chance to get a QB that could be generational (or at least a franchise QB), you take it.

 

[g00n]

 

[Roric]

Love it. You can't have him though, sorry. Nice to be on this side for once

 

[RedRocking]

I think the point most get intuitively is it's much harder to hit on a franchise QB in later rounds than it is to cobble together a top 10 OL from later round picks and free agents.

If you have an early pick and a chance to get a QB that could be generational (or at least a franchise QB), you take it.

Also, if you don’t like one of these 3 QBs, I’m not sure what you’re looking for…Andrew Luck? They all have some warts - they’re prospects. And it’s not like trading down and taking another position automatically means that you’ll hit on that player. It’s all a crapshoot.

I think some people (whether they realize it or not) are worried that if the QB busts, then the rebuild is screwed, the team will never succeed, and all the goodwill for the Harris era will quickly evaporate. Whereas if you “team build” for a couple years, it prolongs this sense of hope and boundless optimism.

 

[kicksavedave]

So yes, people who are latching on to yesteryear and saying pass on QB are worthy of derision. It’s a choice only a simpleton would make unless neither Maye nor Daniels moved the needle, you simply have to draft one of them and take your shot.

Can you imagine passing on the next Allen or Mahomes or Lamar for a bust at LT?

You draft a QB. End of freaking story.

This is all I'm saying.... the new brain trust should be trusted to decide if these two guys are worthy of the 2nd overall pick. Opinions and grades are all over the map on them.

I have my preferences but I won't be upset if they go with a different one than I like. If they go with neither, then they are making a huge bet that they know better than everyone else. If they're wrong, someone up high is getting fired. So yeah, they're gonna draft the QB.

 

[g00n]

Love it. You can't have him though, sorry. Nice to be on this side for once

There's one. ATL. 8th pick.

I think you have to listen to offers. Whether or not you think you can drop to 8 and get one of the other QBs, and have it be worth it, depends on how many future 1st ATL is willing to part with (and obviously this years 8oa and probably their 2nd as well).

If ATL gives up 3 firsts, a 2nd, and maybe something else and you can still get McCarthy at 8 (assuming AZ, NYG, and TEN don't gobble up the next 3 QBs)...

There's also a chance picks 4-7 might trade back to someone like MIN, or NO or LV who have a lot of picks.

I would feel better trading back to 7 if TN wants to move up

 

[kicksavedave]

There's one. ATL. 8th pick.

I think you have to listen to offers. Whether or not you think you can drop to 8 and get one of the other QBs, and have it be worth it, depends on how many future 1st ATL is willing to part with (and obviously this years 8oa and probably their 2nd as well).

If ATL gives up 3 firsts, a 2nd, and maybe something else and you can still get McCarthy at 8 (assuming AZ, NYG, and TEN don't gobble up the next 3 QBs)...

There's also a chance picks 4-7 might trade back to someone like MIN, or NO or LV who have a lot of picks.

I would feel better trading back to 7 if TN wants to move up

I have a really hard time seeing any of the big 3 slipping all the way to 8. If any of them falls out of the top 3, someone in the mid range will look to move up for them. Like you said, Min, NO, LV, Denver, all want a QB and AZ, LAC, NYG and TEN are likely willing to listen to trade down offers since they will almost surely not draft the QB.

If we take the move to 8, we're looking at JJ or Penix or Nix and that gets precarious. Penix and Nix won't be there at 36-40 it seems.

 

[arlcapsfan]

Rack him Jim…

Epic…..haven’t heard that in quite some time. Love It !

 

[Ajax1995]

I stopped taking this serious when you compared Rogers to Theisman as if I think they're the same. If you're going to put words in my mouth, get them right. Rogers was a first round pick and made the pro bowl 4 years after he was drafted, with the team that drafted him. Theisman, was nothing of the sort. The team that drafted him, didn't even sign him. He spent 4 years in the CFL. He didn't earn the starting job until 8 years after he was drafted. The difference between them is so obvious, you trying to conflate them is silly.

Also, George Allen traded all his draft picks for various players. The year he traded a 1st for Theisman, he also traded their 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th round picks. They traded their first 4 picks in the year prior and two years after that. In 72 they traded their first 7 picks. Its how they operated - they didn't bother with rookies. And sure, Theisman was a CFL MVP. So was Doug Flutie. Is Flutie not an NFL Journeyman?

I don't know why you're taking it so personal. Theisman was a GREAT Redskin QB.... for 3-4 years... under Joe Gibbs and behind the Hogs. But Jay Schroeder also put up pro bowl numbers the very next year he took over for Joe T. Doug Williams and Mark Rypien need no explanation.

The point is simple and it seems to have sailed over your head. A GREAT OL can make even average QBs look great. The opposite is simply not true. Great QBs under constant duress do not play like great QBs.

I don’t think you are appreciating the difference between ‘pro bowl numbers’ and league MVP. There are plenty of pro bowl QBs every season and even more guys who put up comparable numbers but don’t get the nod for whatever reason. Theismann won the friggin’ MVP. He didn’t just make a pro bowl and get in another one as an alternate when someone twisted their ankle.

Poo pooing an MVP and giving all the credit to the coach and offensive line is ridiculous IMO.

 

[kicksavedave]

I don’t think you are appreciating the difference between ‘pro bowl numbers’ and league MVP. There are plenty of pro bowl QBs every season and even more guys who put up comparable numbers but don’t get the nod for whatever reason. Theismann won the friggin’ MVP. He didn’t just make a pro bowl and get in another one as an alternate when someone twisted their ankle.

Poo pooing an MVP and giving all the credit to the coach and offensive line is ridiculous IMO.

I'm not poo pooing his accomplishments, just pointing out that before 1982, Theisman was a mid NFL QB at best and no one really saw him as an MVP caliber QB. Then that all changed. But its also a very fair question if Theisman was the driver of that 82-83 dynamo, or John Riggins and the Hogs were.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I also feel like OL at the NFL level takes longer to develop. Its pretty rare for rookies to come in and dominate the league. I can only think of a few that came in as a rookie and took over the league. Orlando Pace and our Trent Williams.

Its just hard going from beating up 19 year old college walk ons to having to play vs a bunch of NFL pros

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I also feel like OL at the NFL level takes longer to develop. Its pretty rare for rookies to come in and dominate the league. I can only think of a few that came in as a rookie and took over the league. Orlando Pace and our Trent Williams.

Its just hard going from beating up 19 year old college walk ons to having to play vs a bunch of NFL pros

“Took over the league” is a massive reach…..but plenty of rookies come in and play well.

Our own Chris Samuels was instantly pretty good. Pro Bowler 2nd year and beyond.

 

[John Price]

96.4 mil in cap space because of the big cap expansion this year

 

[Ajax1995]

I'm not poo pooing his accomplishments, just pointing out that before 1982, Theisman was a mid NFL QB at best and no one really saw him as an MVP caliber QB. Then that all changed. But its also a very fair question if Theisman was the driver of that 82-83 dynamo, or John Riggins and the Hogs were.

Hmmmm, yeah I wonder who was most, what’s the term…?, valuable?

 

[Ridley Simon]

Wait — how many players are currently signed?

There's one. ATL. 8th pick.

I think you have to listen to offers. Whether or not you think you can drop to 8 and get one of the other QBs, and have it be worth it, depends on how many future 1st ATL is willing to part with (and obviously this years 8oa and probably their 2nd as well).

If ATL gives up 3 firsts, a 2nd, and maybe something else and you can still get McCarthy at 8 (assuming AZ, NYG, and TEN don't gobble up the next 3 QBs)...

There's also a chance picks 4-7 might trade back to someone like MIN, or NO or LV who have a lot of picks.

I would feel better trading back to 7 if TN wants to move up

Yeah. This.

I’d be very happy with JJ and all that extra draft capital. Very.

 

[kicksavedave]

Hmmmm, yeah I wonder who was most, what’s the term…?, valuable?

Well one of them is in the Hall of Fame and one is not. Two actually, Grimm and Riggins. Hell, the year before, the NFL MVP was... *checks notes*, Mark Mosely, a kicker.

I also remember very clearly who they hitched their wagon to in the 1982/83 playoffs for four games including the Super Bowl, and it wasn't Theisman. It was Riggo.

 

[Jags]

I'm really curious how this new ownership spends in FA this year. I actually hope they don't go for all the splashy big names at big contracts. Those work out so rarely.

With Quinn's rep around the league, I'd expect that defensive free agents will be very open to coming here, knowing the staff is good and that they'll start. I'm cool with that as long as the draft is long on O-linemen.

There is also strong statistical evidence that QBs who regress prior to their draft year don't succeed in the NFL

The player did not regress. The team did. They installed a new offense and had a shaky line and receivers. You can make the argument that the eye test says he didn't improve on his weaknesses year-to-year, but the regression point is nonsense.

Theismann won the friggin’ MVP. He didn’t just make a pro bowl

Rich Gannon won the friggin' MVP in similar fashion. It's the Rodgers comp that's rubbing stink on your argument. Rodgers won four friggin' MVPs, as much as a decade apart, back-to-back when he was 37 and 38 years old, and more than the QB everyone says is the GOAT. And he had "Future Hall of Famer" figuratively tattooed on his forehead that whole time.

The only people that ever said "Theismann belongs in the Hall" are people that LITERALLY have Redskins tattoos on their faces. People that lack judgment, in other words.

It's kinda like saying that Mo'Nique is in the same echelon of actors as Meryl Streep because, hey, they both won Oscars. One is an actor that delivered a single great performance but otherwise is 9th on the callsheet for Tyler Perry movies, and the other is Meryl f***ing Streep.

 

[Holtbyisms]

Wait — how many players are currently signed?

Yeah. This.

I’d be very happy with JJ and all that extra draft capital. Very.

Might as well just ride with Howell and use that pick for offensive line help. There are only two quarterbacks in this draft who put us in a better position than SH and JJ ain't one of them.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

3 1sts + 43OA this year + Kyle Pitts and I might — might — consider considering it. Probably not though, because I’d give up that package to get a young star at QB.

I’m tired of the QB wasteland. Just over it. Snyder is gone, Ron is gone, the Marties are gone — go get a QB that can lead this team for the next decade and let’s get back to being a real organization again. You have to assume they’re not going to be as bad next year so it’ll be harder to be in position to draft a QB.

As a reminder, the Rams did nothing of note with all of their draft capital from the RGIII trade. Draft picks are fun but winning actual games is more fun.

 

[Roric]

There's one. ATL. 8th pick.

I think you have to listen to offers. Whether or not you think you can drop to 8 and get one of the other QBs, and have it be worth it, depends on how many future 1st ATL is willing to part with (and obviously this years 8oa and probably their 2nd as well).

If ATL gives up 3 firsts, a 2nd, and maybe something else and you can still get McCarthy at 8 (assuming AZ, NYG, and TEN don't gobble up the next 3 QBs)...

There's also a chance picks 4-7 might trade back to someone like MIN, or NO or LV who have a lot of picks.

I would feel better trading back to 7 if TN wants to move up

ATL is already loaded with young talent on offense, in a weak division and got rid of that joke of a HC arthur smith. The final piece to them really starting to contend is the QB. If maye pans out, theres no way they don’t improve dramatically and those firsts are way late. No interest from me. They can keep their asses at 8 or trade up with some other sucker

I don’t think it’s anywhere close to something like the bears/panthers trade where we could be looking at a potential top 3/5 pick with one of those firsts

 

[Ridley Simon]

Might as well just ride with Howell and use that pick for offensive line help. There are only two quarterbacks in this draft who put us in a better position than SH and JJ ain't one of them.

I appreciate your position, but you are just guessing, like everyone else. JJ could easily end up the best QB of this class. Is it likely? Perhaps not. Is it plausible? Absolutely.

His fundamentals are terrific. He makes all the throws, and did everything asked of him.

SURE, he also had the best team around him. That’s not his fault (and no “hero” ball). And who’s to say HE wasn’t why they had the best team?

I dunno. I think a deal w an Atlanta makes a ton of sense. Get 8/43 and then perhaps 2 future firsts. (Or like ABro said, young player like Pitts)

At 8 they can go a LOT of ways, and then having 36/40/43 would allow potentially 3 more new starters.

I’m just saying it’s not crazy to think that way.

 

[g00n]

ATL is already loaded with young talent on offense, in a weak division and got rid of that joke of a HC arthur smith. The final piece to them really starting to contend is the QB. If maye pans out, theres no way they don’t improve dramatically and those firsts are way late. No interest from me. They can keep their asses at 8 or trade up with some other sucker

I don’t think it’s anywhere close to something like the bears/panthers trade where we could be looking at a potential top 3/5 pick with one of those firsts

Maybe ATL improves, maybe they don't. TB and NO have veteran QBs and plenty of talent, too. They'll still be dogging ATL for the next few years. Carolina seems most likely to continue to suck with ATL maybe hovering at 5 to 9 wins per year and picking in roughly the same position every season. It may not be a super high pick but it's still an extra first, for however many years they can pry out of it.

I'm 50/50 on any kind of trade back, but it's something they still have to look at.

 

[usiel]

QB selections are the classic roll of that d20. The thing is sometimes you gotta roll that d20 despite the previous analytics.