OT: 2024 Washington Commanders thread: change we can believe in!
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I could see a scenario where they (DC brains) like JJ almost as much as they like Maye or Daniels, so the trade back and drafting JJ at 8 makes some sense. But I have a hard time seeing why Atlanta would do that trade up if they can keep the draft capital (which they need very much) and juts take JJ themselves. There's so much smoke show going on now until the draft. And media reports of insider information are generally garbage - how many insiders insisted we were getting Ben Johnson?
g00n
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Well they weren't wrong about the fire behind the BJ smoke. He bugged out while our guys were in the air for the 2nd interview, iirc.
The rumor is ATL are smitten with Maye. Maybe it's true, maybe not. If they're in love with the guy they'll overpay.
IMO the WFT are in a great position that SHOULD be pretty hard to f*** up. Snyderskins would 100% botch it, but Harris & Pals will likely make a decent move one way or the other.
All true.
It will — as always — come down to each teams valuation of the top 6/7 QB’s (Williams, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy, Penix, Nix, Travis).
Every team will simply NOT be the same WTR to each player. Sure, the consensus *may* be Williams #1, but who knows.
I’d rather be at 2 right now than 8. BUT, 8 (or similar placement) wouldn’t bother me at all, IF they got a nice package of futures/young players as well as 8.
The Skins seemingly NEVER get that “haul” of picks. Well, at least not since the Ricky Williams trade w the Saints, however many years ago that was (and that WAS a haul)
bacchist
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The data does not back you up on this. There is a high correlation between OL success and draft position. Throwing the dice on whoever the rest of the league passes on is a losing strategy.
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g00n
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bacchist
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Where To Find Quality Offensive Linemen in the Draft - Steel City Blitz
With less than a month to go until the 2021 NFL Draft, the Steelers still have some significant needs to address along the offensive line. Zach Banner, who won the right tackle spot in camp last year but suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1, was re-signed to a 2-year contract. Former 3rd...
steelcityblitz.com
g00n
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This doesn't refute what I said. It states the obvious: the best players are usually taken earlier in the draft.Where To Find Quality Offensive Linemen in the Draft - Steel City Blitz
With less than a month to go until the 2021 NFL Draft, the Steelers still have some significant needs to address along the offensive line. Zach Banner, who won the right tackle spot in camp last year but suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1, was re-signed to a 2-year contract. Former 3rd...
Plus, we're talking about building a top 10 line, not just drafting individual Pro Bowlers or whatever. Go see what round Jason Kelce was drafted in.
There's also this: "Of the 160 starters in 2020, 90 are still with the original team that drafted them while 70 were signed either as free agents, acquired via trade, or signed as undrafted free agents."
That's still a fairly high % (44%) of top OL who have moved on via free agency. Most elite and SB winning QBs tend to play their peak years with the team that drafted them, iirc.
DraftHistory.com
Brady is the exception to the high draft pick norm in the modern NFL, of course. Russell Wilson was taken in the 3rd round but beyond that, the list above is mostly 1st and 2nd rounders. And the vast majority won with the team that drafted them.
g00n
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Let's look at the Chefs OL, for example;
D. Smith - 2nd round
Thuney - 3rd round
Humphrey - 2nd round
Trey Smith - 6th round
Taylor - 2nd round
Again, it's much more likely you can cobble together a very good OL unit from guys drafting in these positions than SOMEHOW letting a diamond in the rough HOF or franchise QB somehow slip to you in the late rounds, when every single team is focusing on that position and all the top draft prospects are always moved right to the top of the rankings.
That's why guys like Brady and Purdy stand out so much. They're super rare, and there are fewer to choose from in any draft due to position scarcity (OL will be much more plentiful).
D. Smith - 2nd round
Thuney - 3rd round
Humphrey - 2nd round
Trey Smith - 6th round
Taylor - 2nd round
Again, it's much more likely you can cobble together a very good OL unit from guys drafting in these positions than SOMEHOW letting a diamond in the rough HOF or franchise QB somehow slip to you in the late rounds, when every single team is focusing on that position and all the top draft prospects are always moved right to the top of the rankings.
That's why guys like Brady and Purdy stand out so much. They're super rare, and there are fewer to choose from in any draft due to position scarcity (OL will be much more plentiful).
If they get 3 1sts and 3 2nds and still end up with McCarthy I’ll listen.
Otherwise keep it.
g00n
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All that said wrt OL, their current starters at tackle afaik are a 7th rounder and an undrafted.
Not good.
Most of the OL taken in the 1st round are tackles, by far. Then G and then C with almost no C in the first round, usually.
There should be a decent amount of OT/G to choose from at 36, 40, and 67.
Not good.
Most of the OL taken in the 1st round are tackles, by far. Then G and then C with almost no C in the first round, usually.
There should be a decent amount of OT/G to choose from at 36, 40, and 67.
bacchist
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Or Kurt Warner.
The Chiefs are one of 2 teams with top 10 OLs that don't have any 1st round picks. They are an exception that proves the rule.
The track record of QBs picked in the first round is underwhelming at best.
Sharp: The success rate of first-round QBs makes Lamar Jackson's case for him | FOX Sports
Only one of the 38 first-round quarterbacks drafted since 2011 has led their team to a Super Bowl win. Warren Sharp outlines exactly why teams should go all-in for Lamar Jackson.
www.foxsports.com
g00n
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Or Kurt Warner.
The Chiefs are one of 2 teams with top 10 OLs that don't have any 1st round picks. They are an exception that proves the rule.
The track record of QBs picked in the first round is underwhelming at best.
Sharp: The success rate of first-round QBs makes Lamar Jackson's case for him | FOX Sports
Only one of the 38 first-round quarterbacks drafted since 2011 has led their team to a Super Bowl win. Warren Sharp outlines exactly why teams should go all-in for Lamar Jackson.
These are irrelevant points and it proves you don't need a line full of 1st round OL to win. There is no rule stating your entire OL or even most of it needs to be top 5 picks.
Of course first round picks are not guaranteed to be stars. At ANY position.
There's no need to make any distinction about having no first round picks in the OL. What rounds were the other guys picked in on either side of those 1st round OLs? How many franchise QBs were available at the time they were drafted?
The game theory and positional availability, along with the necessity of weighting the QB position vs 1 of 5 OL positions, make it so you need to be REALLY really certain you have a HOF OL if you're passing on a potential franchise QB with a top pick.
g00n
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For example:
Ravens - 3 first rounders
Eagles - 1 first rounder
Colts - 2
Lions - 3
KC - 0
MIN - 2
DAL - 3
CLE - 1
These are some of the best OLs as of Jan 2024. They have 2nd rounders and 6th rounders etc sprinkled in. And some of these 1st rounders were not drafted by these teams.
You can turn a later round OL into a top notch starter on a top notch line. Or you can buy one. Or trade for one. It's a lot harder to take some JAG QB and mold him into Joe Montana. Or even Brock Purdy. That's why it's hard to pry them away in FA or trade and drafting them is so important.
Ravens - 3 first rounders
Eagles - 1 first rounder
Colts - 2
Lions - 3
KC - 0
MIN - 2
DAL - 3
CLE - 1
These are some of the best OLs as of Jan 2024. They have 2nd rounders and 6th rounders etc sprinkled in. And some of these 1st rounders were not drafted by these teams.
You can turn a later round OL into a top notch starter on a top notch line. Or you can buy one. Or trade for one. It's a lot harder to take some JAG QB and mold him into Joe Montana. Or even Brock Purdy. That's why it's hard to pry them away in FA or trade and drafting them is so important.
Roric
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We are painting OL with a bit of a broad brush here.
I think the first round is where you need to get a blind side tackle. Usually LT. Those are not easy to find outside rd 1. Sure, it’s possible, but it’s harder.
The other 4 o-line positions can certainly be filled in the later rounds. 100%.
I think the first round is where you need to get a blind side tackle. Usually LT. Those are not easy to find outside rd 1. Sure, it’s possible, but it’s harder.
The other 4 o-line positions can certainly be filled in the later rounds. 100%.
CapitalsCupReality
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I’d be curious to know how many LT/RT starters are 1st rounders….I bet it‘s less than we think…
Well, 11 of the top 12 for PFF were 1st rounders. I stopped looking after that (perhaps it falls off, but that IS telling).
And the one that wasn’t (7th rounder!) was an RT. To follow my point.
PFF Offensive Tackle Rankings: Top 32 ahead of the 2023 NFL season
The San Francisco 49ers' Trent Williams takes the top spot in these NFL offensive tackle rankings ahead of the 2023 season.
www.pff.com
CapitalsCupReality
It’s Go Time!!
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I’m in no way surprised most of the top starters are….and yes I bet it drops off….Well, 10 of the top 12 for PFF were 1st rounders. I stopped looking after that (perhaps it falls off, but that IS telling).
PFF Offensive Tackle Rankings: Top 32 ahead of the 2023 NFL season
The San Francisco 49ers' Trent Williams takes the top spot in these NFL offensive tackle rankings ahead of the 2023 season.
I was wrong. It was 11 of 12.
If you want to look at the list to prove your point, I welcome you to do so. Just do 13-25 or whatever
CapitalsCupReality
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Ok. I did them all. I think I tallied it correctly.
17 in 1st round
6 in 2nd round
4 in 3rd round
5 in 5th round of higher.
These are ALL(LT&RT) tackles, considered the top 32 by PFF (our own Charles Leno was 30th).
I’d call 17/32 a pretty good sample. 27/32 in first 3 rounds.
Shrug. If you want a really good one, pretty much gotta go first round.
17 in 1st round
6 in 2nd round
4 in 3rd round
5 in 5th round of higher.
These are ALL(LT&RT) tackles, considered the top 32 by PFF (our own Charles Leno was 30th).
I’d call 17/32 a pretty good sample. 27/32 in first 3 rounds.
Shrug. If you want a really good one, pretty much gotta go first round.
g00n
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Or trade. Or get a FA. Pretty much what I said before...tackles go in the first way more than the other OL.
But it very likely depends on team need and how many other stud QB or other skill players are in the draft. If you need a QB and have 2OA in a potentially rare draft with QBs of this quality, you'd better think twice about taking any OL at #2 unless they're can't-miss studs you plan to build your entire line around for a long time.
Which is why the handling of Trent Williams was so disastrously stupid.
