OT: 2024 Washington Commanders thread: change we can believe in!

[Ridley Simon]

Just give up the 2 2nds…..not the next 1….

I dunno. This draft is supposed to be far better than next years.

 

[EroCaps]

I'm still torn between these two guys, but why would you automatically assume that the guy ready to start now is definitely not also the best guy overall? If there's a difference in ceilings between Maye and Daniels, I doubt it's massive. I haven't watched much of JJ yet, but it sounds like he might have similar potential.

I agree that we should draft the guy that we think will be better, even if it's not right away. But ability to play now and having a super bright future are not mutually exclusive ideas.

Daniel’s ability to start right away is not really my main concern. It’s his play style and arm.

I do not want them to draft Tyrod Taylor or Geno Smith while Maye is on the board.

If they do, I’ll let it play out and hopefully eat crow but it’s going to be iffy until I see he can win games in December and not miss 5-7 games a season.

 

[kicksavedave]

This is flat out malfeasance and not how you go about drafting your franchise QB.

You aren’t competing for a Super Bowl in year 1 you’re competing for the next 10-15 years.

Daniels is the obvious Snyder sucker pick.

Your bias is noted and absurd. As @Jags points out, being ready to play right away doesn't mean he also doesn't have the highest upside. It does mean he has the lowest risk, because he's already done the work to be NFL ready, whereas your boy hasn't yet ever shown he's got NFL ready processing and fundamentals. You really need to open your mind a little bit.

Dan Snyder would be trying to move up for CW anyway, so, you're wrong on that level too.

Daniel’s ability to start right away is not really my main concern. It’s his play style and arm.

I do not want them to draft Tyrod Taylor or Geno Smith while Maye is on the board.

If they do, I’ll let it play out and hopefully eat crow but it’s going to be iffy until I see he can win games in December and not miss 5-7 games a season.

His arm? You mean the photoshopped bump from mid season that he no longer has? Or his arm strength, which is outstanding. Or his accuracy with his arm, which is better than both CW and DM by a wide margin. He also has a nice tight quick release.

What is your specific objection to his arm? The picture from mid season which had zero impact on his throwing whatsoever? Open your mind.

 

[kicksavedave]

Not sure if anyone has posted this but found it interesting.

How a 'flight simulator' for QBs made Jayden Daniels even scarier on field

Jayden Daniels has had a breakthrough season as a Heisman Trophy finalist at LSU. There is a hidden technological layer to his growth.

theathletic.com

Damn there is so many other good nerdy tech nuggets in that article I wish everyone could read.

This is awesome. And yeah, everyone will be copying this soon, but I haven't heard DM or CW doing this yet, so there is that.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I dunno. This draft is supposed to be far better than next years.

That 1st could turn into a top 10 pick easily…otherwise, alternatively I’d offer a 2 this and a 2 next year…..add a late round sweetener if needed…

 

[Ridley Simon]

That 1st could turn into a top 10 pick easily…otherwise, alternatively I’d offer a 2 this and a 2 next year…..add a late round sweetener if needed…

They could pull a Carolina and be horrible after making a deal. Doesn’t seem like we will emulate them, but one never knows

 

[kicksavedave]

That 1st could turn into a top 10 pick easily…otherwise, alternatively I’d offer a 2 this and a 2 next year…..add a late round sweetener if needed…

They could pull a Carolina and be horrible after making a deal. Doesn’t seem like we will emulate them, but one never knows

Or they could pull a Houston and make that pick around 20 something. Who the eff knows what this team will be like next year? How much will competent coaching vs whatever the hell RR/EB/JDR was doing, will matter in the standings?

 

[Ridley Simon]

Or they could pull a Houston and make that pick around 20 something. Who the eff knows what this team will be like next year? How much will competent coaching vs whatever the hell RR/EB/JDR was doing, will matter in the standings?

I personally would like to see them deal 40 and next years first for something in the late teens. Add in up to a 5th if need be.

But we will see

 

[kicksavedave]

I personally would like to see them deal 40 and next years first for something in the late teens. Add in up to a 5th if need be.

But we will see

If the right OT slips to a spot where they can make a good deal, I'd be all over that. But I think they may also have a longer term "build through the draft" approach that means conserving picks, not trading them... we'll see.

 

[Roric]

Packaging #36 and #40 for Fashanu would be the dream

Just use both

 

[Jags]

Your bias is noted and absurd. As @Jags points out, being ready to play right away doesn't mean he also doesn't have the highest upside. It does mean he has the lowest risk, because he's already done the work to be NFL ready, whereas your boy hasn't yet ever shown he's got NFL ready processing and fundamentals. You really need to open your mind a little bit.

Pots and kettles. Your bias is noted and extreme, too. According to you, JD is the best passer, the best runner, the smartest, the heaviest, the most accomplished, the most ready, already somehow NFL qualified across the board, the most improved, the most adorable, the best mannered, the leaderiest leader, the clear winner of the swimsuit competition, and a passionate, thorough, and generous lover.



AND the "other guy" is clearly not ready for anything and has poor fundamentals, which suggests he's an iffy football player to begin with. Your hyperbole in both directions is pretty big, and your mind is just as closed.

Nothing all that meaningful has changed about these QBs since the end of the NCAA season, and yet guys are shooting up and down the rankings based solely on the chatter of people who have zero actual knowledge.

If the differences between the guys in this conversation were as big and obvious as you claim, there wouldn't be a conversation to begin with.

 

[Chokingdogs]

Can threads be put on ignore?

Pretty sure I cannot take three more weeks of this lol

 

[Roric]

Can threads be put on ignore?

Pretty sure I cannot take three more weeks of this lol

If you think this is bad, you should see Extremeskins

Over 2000 pages of just QB talk alone

 

[kicksavedave]

Pots and kettles. Your bias is noted and extreme, too. According to you, JD is the best passer, the best runner, the smartest, the heaviest, the most accomplished, the most ready, already somehow NFL qualified across the board, the most improved, the most adorable, the best mannered, the leaderiest leader, the clear winner of the swimsuit competition, and a passionate, thorough, and generous lover.



AND the "other guy" is clearly not ready for anything and has poor fundamentals, which suggests he's an iffy football player to begin with. Your hyperbole in both directions is pretty big, and your mind is just as closed.

Nothing all that meaningful has changed about these QBs since the end of the NCAA season, and yet guys are shooting up and down the rankings based solely on the chatter of people who have zero actual knowledge.

If the differences between the guys in this conversation were as big and obvious as you claim, there wouldn't be a conversation to begin with.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Pots and kettles. Your bias is noted and extreme, too. According to you, JD is the best passer, the best runner, the smartest, the heaviest, the most accomplished, the most ready, already somehow NFL qualified across the board, the most improved, the most adorable, the best mannered, the leaderiest leader, the clear winner of the swimsuit competition, and a passionate, thorough, and generous lover.



AND the "other guy" is clearly not ready for anything and has poor fundamentals, which suggests he's an iffy football player to begin with. Your hyperbole in both directions is pretty big, and your mind is just as closed.

Nothing all that meaningful has changed about these QBs since the end of the NCAA season, and yet guys are shooting up and down the rankings based solely on the chatter of people who have zero actual knowledge.

If the differences between the guys in this conversation were as big and obvious as you claim, there wouldn't be a conversation to begin with.

That’s just inaccurate, there’s a process that’s been going on…..and I appreciate you being comical with your posts, but as someone who was in the Maye camp early on (now I’m 50/50), I see the anti-JD/pro-Maye crew as being way more hyperbolic, defensive, not really supporting their guy with video, articles, whatever intelligent evidence to support their position…..it’s all “RG3 this, bobblehead that, LSU has a superior team, he’s skinny”….wheres the substance? I mean shit I wanted DM, but there’s a lot of compelling video and expert analysis to like JD also…

 

[RedRocking]

This thread needs an old priest, and a young priest (going through a crisis of faith).

 

[g00n]

View attachment 846639

This thread needs an old priest, and a young priest (going through a crisis of faith).

 

[hotpaws]

That’s just inaccurate, there’s a process that’s been going on…..and I appreciate you being comical with your posts, but as someone who was in the Maye camp early on (now I’m 50/50), I see the anti-JD/pro-Maye crew as being way more hyperbolic, defensive, not really supporting their guy with video, articles, whatever intelligent evidence to support their position…..it’s all “RG3 this, bobblehead that, LSU has a superior team, he’s skinny”….wheres the substance? I mean shit I wanted DM, but there’s a lot of compelling video and expert analysis to like JD also…

we can watch all the tape but it's not comparing apples to apples as well as if it just came down to watching tape the amount of misses would be substantially lower

you have one guy playing behind a great o line while throwing to potentially great NFL not just great college receivers while the other guy stayed with a mediocre to poor team so i don't know how you don't factor that in

so now you look at their tools , other than speed Maye has the clearly better tools , JD may have better footwork but Mayes poor footwork is being overstated

for me it comes down to how they'll be able to process the game at the NFL level where they'll much less time (especially JD) and we won't know that until the season starts and i'll gamble with the younger player with the better arm compared to older player who took 5 years to break out

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

we can watch all the tape but it's not comparing apples to apples as well as if it just came down to watching tape the amount of misses would be substantially lower

you have one guy playing behind a great o line while throwing to potentially great NFL not just great college receivers while the other guy stayed with a mediocre to poor team so i don't know how you don't factor that in

so now you look at their tools , other than speed Maye has the clearly better tools , JD may have better footwork but Mayes poor footwork is being overstated

for me it comes down to how they'll be able to process the game at the NFL level where they'll much less time (especially JD) and we won't know that until the season starts and i'll gamble with the younger player with the better arm compared to older player who took 5 years to break out

I think the analysis can’t be so superficial….you can fairly evaluate a player’s mechanics, decision making, leadership, etc….on their own teams.

Footwork, throwing mechanics, ability to work all parts of the field, elite running ability…..all things you don’t need even teams to be able to evaluate.

You dismiss Maye’s most discussed weakness (messy footwork) like it’s nothing, yet everything says that’s a major problem with lots of credible people saying he might need to sit a long time while they develop him.

In the end, I’d love to just be totally sold on Maye, but his supporters don’t present a compelling argument FOR him, it’s always why NOT about JD.

 

[kicksavedave]

for me it comes down to how they'll be able to process the game at the NFL level where they'll much less time (especially JD) and we won't know that until the season starts and i'll gamble with the younger player with the better arm compared to older player who took 5 years to break out

Ok, so what is it about DM that makes you think he's the one who will be the better processor under less time when they both reach the NFL?

Some stats: Maye was pressured on 149/506 drop backs, or 29.5% of the time. He threw 7 TD and 5 Ints and completed 43% of his passes for 6.7 yards per attempt. His NFL passer rating under pressure was 69 (108 when he was clean). He wasn't especially good under pressure, particularly compared to when he was clean. JD was pressured on 104/408 drop backs, or 25.5% of the time. He had 5 TDs and 0 Ints and completed 50% of his passes for 11.1 yards per attempt. His NFL passer rating under pressure was 123 (146 when he was clean). He was very solid under pressure, a modest drop vs when he was clean.

BTW their pressures that turned into sacks rate was: DM 19.5 and JD 20.2, not a huge difference.

So, I'd again ask what is it that you see which makes you think, when the pressure is turned up in the NFL, Maye is the one who will perform better?

 

[RedRocking]

I think the analysis can’t be so superficial….you can fairly evaluate a player’s mechanics, decision making, leadership, etc….on their own teams.

Footwork, throwing mechanics, ability to work all parts of the field, elite running ability…..all things you don’t need even teams to be able to evaluate.

You dismiss Maye’s most discussed weakness (messy footwork) like it’s nothing, yet everything says that’s a major problem with lots of credible people saying he might need to sit a long time while they develop him.

In the end, I’d love to just be totally sold on Maye, but his supporters don’t present a compelling argument FOR him, it’s always why NOT about JD.

Here, pro-Maye arguments:

- Attacks the MOF (better than any in the class), throwing into tight windows with anticipation. Overall grade of 94.8 for MOF, highest in FBS. On throws 10-20 yds MOF: most attempts, highest BTT%, lowest TWP%
- Highest PFF passing grade (99.0) on throws 20+ yds since 2022
- Led the country in BTT the past 2 seasons. In fact, he has the most ever (for a 1st rounder) in the final 2 years of college (over Mahomes, Burrow, Allen).
- Very accurate. For all his “inconsistency”, has an adjusted completion percentage of 75.1% per PFF.
- Underrated runner, esp on key downs. Has the most carries, of these QBs, to convert a 1st down from 3rd/4th downs (42). JD: 22. Knows how to slide.
- Extremely creative passer. Throws from a variety of arm angles, varying touch/speed. Has a number of Mahomes-esque laterals, shot put, and flip passes.
- Scrambles to extend the play - keeps his eyes up, letting WRs get open; doesn’t just tuck and bail
- 2 years younger, with a breakout age of 20
- Big arm allows him to attack the entire field, and make throws that others (like JD) simply cannot make. He can still get the ball out without getting totally set (like Rodgers, Mahomes, Allen). Or even be late on his read. Imagine marching into MetLife or Lambeau in Dec/January - you want the guy with +arm strength (see Tua’s ineptness in cold playoff weather). For that reason alone, he has higher upside than JD IMHO.


Let’s talk mechanics. Allen and Love arguably had worse mechanics as prospects. Mahomes was also bad. People thought Herbert’s mechanics were a total mess - he wasn’t even supposed to start until Tyrod Taylor got hurt early, and was great immediately. Ex-QBs love to harp on this stuff because it’s their expertise. Whereas scouts/GMs know how to project prospects, and what is fixable.

Bottom line: in making this pick at 2OA, the FO should be swinging for the fences. Maye has all the talent to be a top 5 guy in the league. He has the body type, and playing style to be durable well into his second contract.

JD’s path to being a top 5 guy is some version of Lamar (a 1 of 1 unicorn), which is a much rarer path to success IMHO. JD will already be 28 (and losing a bit of speed) when they have to figure out 5th year option/2nd contract. We are in a rebuild, and can be patient with a younger DM. We don’t need someone to come in, and hit the ground running. We want who will be best in 2026 and beyond.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Here, pro-Maye arguments:

- Attacks the MOF (better than any in the class), throwing into tight windows with anticipation. Overall grade of 94.8 for MOF, highest in FBS. On throws 10-20 yds MOF: most attempts, highest BTT%, lowest TWP%
- Highest PFF passing grade (99.0) on throws 20+ yds since 2022
- Led the country in BTT the past 2 seasons. In fact, he has the most ever (for a 1st rounder) in the final 2 years of college (over Mahomes, Burrow, Allen).
- Very accurate. For all his “inconsistency”, has an adjusted completion percentage of 75.1% per PFF.
- Underrated runner, esp on key downs. Has the most carries, of these QBs, to convert a 1st down from 3rd/4th downs (42). JD: 22. Knows how to slide.
- Extremely creative passer. Throws from a variety of arm angles, varying touch/speed. Has a number of Mahomes-esque laterals, shot put, and flip passes.
- Scrambles to extend the play - keeps his eyes up, letting WRs get open; doesn’t just tuck and bail
- 2 years younger, with a breakout age of 20
- Big arm allows him to attack the entire field, and make throws that others (like JD) simply cannot make. He can still get the ball out without getting totally set (like Rodgers, Mahomes, Allen). Or even be late on his read. Imagine marching into MetLife or Lambeau in Dec/January - you want the guy with +arm strength (see Tua’s ineptness in cold playoff weather). For that reason alone, he has higher upside than JD IMHO.


Let’s talk mechanics. Allen and Love arguably had worse mechanics as prospects. Mahomes was also bad. People thought Herbert’s mechanics were a total mess - he wasn’t even supposed to start until Tyrod Taylor got hurt early, and was great immediately. Ex-QBs love to harp on this stuff because it’s their expertise. Whereas scouts/GMs know how to project prospects, and what is fixable.

Bottom line: in making this pick at 2OA, the FO should be swinging for the fences. Maye has all the talent to be a top 5 guy in the league. He has the body type, and playing style to be durable well into his second contract.

JD’s path to being a top 5 guy is some version of Lamar (a 1 of 1 unicorn), which is a much rarer path to success IMHO. JD will already be 28 (and losing a bit of speed) when they have to figure out 5th year option/2nd contract. We are in a rebuild, and can be patient with a younger DM. We don’t need someone to come in, and hit the ground running. We want who will be best in 2026 and beyond.

Heavily opinion-laden, but I appreciate the effort!

I think JD can make any typical NFL throw Maye can….

 

[RedRocking]

Heavily opinion-laden, but I appreciate the effort!

I think JD can make any typical NFL throw Maye can….

What the heck do you think an argument is? Plus I provided objective stats for most of the points. All in response to your direct question.

I don’t care if you agree with me - but, If the response is “well that’s just like your opinion, man” - then next time I won’t bother.

 

[ynotcaps]

View attachment 846639

This thread needs an old priest, and a young priest (going through a crisis of faith).

Meet up in Georgetown by the steps???

 

[g00n]

Meet up in Georgetown by the steps???

Meet you at the bottom