OT: 2024 Washington Commanders thread: change we can believe in!

[RedRocking]

Meet you at the bottom

Plot twist: I am Pazuzu

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

What the heck do you think an argument is? Plus I provided objective stats for most of the points. All in response to your direct question.

I don’t care if you agree with me - but, If the response is “well that’s just like your opinion, man” - then next time I won’t bother.

lol you want me to pick out and apart all the opinions and meaningless name dropping comparisons? What’s the point?

 

[ynotcaps]

Here, pro-Maye arguments:

- Attacks the MOF (better than any in the class), throwing into tight windows with anticipation. Overall grade of 94.8 for MOF, highest in FBS. On throws 10-20 yds MOF: most attempts, highest BTT%, lowest TWP%
- Highest PFF passing grade (99.0) on throws 20+ yds since 2022
- Led the country in BTT the past 2 seasons. In fact, he has the most ever (for a 1st rounder) in the final 2 years of college (over Mahomes, Burrow, Allen).
- Very accurate. For all his “inconsistency”, has an adjusted completion percentage of 75.1% per PFF.
- Underrated runner, esp on key downs. Has the most carries, of these QBs, to convert a 1st down from 3rd/4th downs (42). JD: 22. Knows how to slide.
- Extremely creative passer. Throws from a variety of arm angles, varying touch/speed. Has a number of Mahomes-esque laterals, shot put, and flip passes.
- Scrambles to extend the play - keeps his eyes up, letting WRs get open; doesn’t just tuck and bail
- 2 years younger, with a breakout age of 20
- Big arm allows him to attack the entire field, and make throws that others (like JD) simply cannot make. He can still get the ball out without getting totally set (like Rodgers, Mahomes, Allen). Or even be late on his read. Imagine marching into MetLife or Lambeau in Dec/January - you want the guy with +arm strength (see Tua’s ineptness in cold playoff weather). For that reason alone, he has higher upside than JD IMHO.


Let’s talk mechanics. Allen and Love arguably had worse mechanics as prospects. Mahomes was also bad. People thought Herbert’s mechanics were a total mess - he wasn’t even supposed to start until Tyrod Taylor got hurt early, and was great immediately. Ex-QBs love to harp on this stuff because it’s their expertise. Whereas scouts/GMs know how to project prospects, and what is fixable.

Bottom line: in making this pick at 2OA, the FO should be swinging for the fences. Maye has all the talent to be a top 5 guy in the league. He has the body type, and playing style to be durable well into his second contract.

JD’s path to being a top 5 guy is some version of Lamar (a 1 of 1 unicorn), which is a much rarer path to success IMHO. JD will already be 28 (and losing a bit of speed) when they have to figure out 5th year option/2nd contract. We are in a rebuild, and can be patient with a younger DM. We don’t need someone to come in, and hit the ground running. We want who will be best in 2026 and beyond.

Knows how to slide: JD knows how to slide (and get out of bounds.) Watch the film. Not a differentiator.
Flip passes: JD also has demonstrated. Also, that's a gadget/nice to have that PH has popularized -- not something that should be attempted too often as it will lead to TOs. If a differentiator, one w/ potentially negative implications.
Scrambles to extend play and throw: anybody who thinks this is a differentiator is basing this on drumbeat not the tape. Watch. The. Film.
Age: less experienced, and regressed in age 21 season. Daniels grew immensely when he stepped onto a bigger, brighter stage. You're hoping Maye can do what Daniels already has.
Arm: "Makes throws JD simply cannot make" -- arguing facts not in evidence, your honor. Every analyst who watched the pro day said Daniels has a whip, low-wind-up, compact throwing motion and the ball fires out with tight spin -- that's not me, that people who get paid because they know. Also, I'm quite sure I don't want a guy with inconsistent mechanics who "misses too many layups" (quotes of numerous respected evaluators -- incl. at least one HOF QB) trying to make ridiculous throws because he physically can. That's a glaring example of something he'll have to get fixed, not something that should be encouraged.

The bottom line is, Maye has prototypical size, some great play traits, and is a lot of projection -- including that he'll overcome the main challenge, which has sunk a ton of prospects before him. Daniels has a slighter frame, is more varied in the challenges he presents a defense, has more experience against better competition (and has proven he can accept coaching to raise his game against higher competition), is the best (or 1B) deep-thrower in the class.

If each of their floors are what they are today, it's Daniels by a lot. (I believe each will get better.) Maye's ceiling may be higher -- but not by much. He just has a lot longer way to go to reach it. The probability is that the stud who's proven he can take coaching and improve is the safer bet over the guy who's got stud traits but isn't there yet. Watch their performances against the toughest defenses they respectively faced and tell me who looks like they met the challenge?

lol you want me to pick out and apart all the opinions and meaningless name dropping comparisons? What’s the point?

Oh, shoot. Um... I sorta' did. Sorry.

 

[Jags]

Oh, shoot. Um... I sorta' did. Sorry.

He listed some pros about Maye, and where he suggested Maye might be better, he included stats. The rest was just things about Maye that are good. You know, the things that made every football mind on the planet say he was going #2 over the last two seasons. CCR said pro-Maye guys never say pro-Maye things, they just drag Daniels, which is nonsense. Plenty of things have been said here about Maye, but you guys bat it all down by saying Daniels is better at everything.

It's a little ridiculous.

Look, all I'm saying is there's a pile of things that are objectively great about both guys. And there is no true apples-to-apples comparison because of the conference differences. These guys played in very different circumstances this year.

Your overstatements about Daniels are plentiful. "The best deep ball" is often to wide open receivers and many were underthrown. He throws less with anticipation by comparison, less in the middle of the field, certainly has his share of gimme misses, nowhere near as many drops to overcome, and so on. He is not the Superman you make him out to be. And Maye isn't the dud you make him out to be, either.

And why would anyone think that Maye MIGHT transition better or have a higher ceiling? Because in absolute contrast to what you just said, he just proved A LOT by having a really solid year despite the new offense installation, despite missing his top receiver for half the year, despite the super shaky O-line, despite the iffy receiving corps, and having it very often be him against the world if they wanted wins. He hung in, showed well, and put up a solid stat line under tough circumstances.

In other words, he just proved he can handle adversity and adapt to a lot of the things he's likely to face heading to a very new and very different situation. And that takes nothing away from Daniels, who proved many of the same things in different ways.

I don't know that Maye is better (or can be better) than Daniels. I'm still torn. But I think it's way closer than you think it is, and lots of people who are supposed to know seem to agree it's a tough call. Your utter certainty isn't convincing and doesn't feel objective.

(And for what it's worth, the ES board is very pro-Maye and I've been having almost the exact same conversation there recently -- having to convince the Mayesayers that they're not being very objective about Maye and are saying some silly shit about JD in the process. I come off like a JD guy there at times, when all I'm doing either place is suggesting that we should try to be objective.)

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

“It’s ridiculous”…it’s right there in all the posts….and yeah….of course it’s close…..duh…..this is why it’s a debate. I’m sure I come off as a JD guy also, because I object to the picture the Maye supporters try to paint….I'm completely torn on who I would take.

Like…as clear JD guys, @kicksavedave and @ynotcaps seem much less inclined to shit on Maye to make their case…..I appreciate that vs the others’ tactics is all.

 

[ynotcaps]

He listed some pros about Maye, and where he suggested Maye might be better, he included stats. The rest was just things about Maye that are good. You know, the things that made every football mind on the planet say he was going #2 over the last two seasons. CCR said pro-Maye guys never say pro-Maye things, they just drag Daniels, which is nonsense. Plenty of things have been said here about Maye, but you guys bat it all down by saying Daniels is better at everything.

It's a little ridiculous.

Look, all I'm saying is there's a pile of things that are objectively great about both guys. And there is no true apples-to-apples comparison because of the conference differences. These guys played in very different circumstances this year.

Your overstatements about Daniels are plentiful. "The best deep ball" is often to wide open receivers and many were underthrown. He throws less with anticipation by comparison, less in the middle of the field, certainly has his share of gimme misses, nowhere near as many drops to overcome, and so on. He is not the Superman you make him out to be. And Maye isn't the dud you make him out to be, either.

And why would anyone think that Maye MIGHT transition better or have a higher ceiling? Because in absolute contrast to what you just said, he just proved A LOT by having a really solid year despite the new offense installation, despite missing his top receiver for half the year, despite the super shaky O-line, despite the iffy receiving corps, and having it very often be him against the world if they wanted wins. He hung in, showed well, and put up a solid stat line under tough circumstances.

In other words, he just proved he can handle adversity and adapt to a lot of the things he's likely to face heading to a very new and very different situation. And that takes nothing away from Daniels, who proved many of the same things in different ways.

I don't know that Maye is better (or can be better) than Daniels. I'm still torn. But I think it's way closer than you think it is, and lots of people who are supposed to know seem to agree it's a tough call. Your utter certainty isn't convincing and doesn't feel objective.

(And for what it's worth, the ES board is very pro-Maye and I've been having almost the exact same conversation there recently -- having to convince the Mayesayers that they're not being very objective about Maye and are saying some silly shit about JD in the process. I come off like a JD guy there at times, when all I'm doing either place is suggesting that we should try to be objective.)

I agree that DM may well have a higher ceiling. And I think he might make the transitions he needs to make. I think he very may well be a very good QB, and maybe even a star -- and if we take him, I hope to hell he does.

I don't expect to change anyone's mind -- we all like our guys (including our resident JJ-ites), and every one of them is perfectly defensible, and every one of them could be stars. I hope for their sakes that all of them are (as log as they don't end up in our division.)

What makes me chirp are the posts that make it seem like Maye is a no-doubter and Daniels is an idiotic choice. Neither of those are remotely true.

 

[Jags]

What makes me chirp are the posts that make it seem like Maye is a no-doubter and Daniels is an idiotic choice. Neither of those are remotely true.

Exactly. And we're bristling at the same thing, just the other way around. And I'm sure we both think we're innocent and objective (at least for the moment we click 'Post reply' lol), but we'd probably also concede that, yeah, we go a little overboard occasionally.

I really don't mean to offend anyone, though I know I can get provocative and the jokes can miss the mark sometimes. I enjoy the discussion, even when it gets a little heated. I like that the group here is often pretty evenly split on stuff; leads to fun exchanges and I find that I learn a lot when I hear from people on both sides... cuz I'm not an expert on most things.

Anyway, thanks for that, and sorry if I bugged anyone.

 

[usiel]

“It’s ridiculous”…it’s right there in all the posts….and yeah….of course it’s close…..duh…..this is why it’s a debate. I’m sure I come off as a JD guy also, because I object to the picture the Maye supporters try to paint….I'm completely torn on who I would take.

Like…as clear JD guys, @kicksavedave and @ynotcaps seem much less inclined to shit on Maye to make their case…..I appreciate that vs the others’ tactics is all.

I hope I'm in that as well I lean towards JD but not trying to crap over Maye. Likely we'll have one of them anyways. About half way through every pass/run for Maye before my detailed post on that but so far it has been pretty good.

 

[HTFN]

“It’s ridiculous”…it’s right there in all the posts….and yeah….of course it’s close…..duh…..this is why it’s a debate. I’m sure I come off as a JD guy also, because I object to the picture the Maye supporters try to paint….I'm completely torn on who I would take.

Like…as clear JD guys, @kicksavedave and @ynotcaps seem much less inclined to shit on Maye to make their case…..I appreciate that vs the others’ tactics is all.

holy shit dude, you can at least bow out or try to participate.

Asking for this list of pro-Maye things, getting one, and then going "tl;dr you just love your guy don't you" is some high octane bullshit.

If you're decided and don't need to hear anything else, take a vacation from the thread (or at least the discussion) instead of taking time to make a post that amounts to plugging your ears going "no, no, no, I can't hear- lalalalalala"

 

[usiel]

FWIW

So first game against SC. Impressed on the short and medium accuracy. First off platform throw was right on the money. A couple of mulligan passes that happen in every game even the top QBs in the league experience. I can see the slight arm strength difference between him and JD but the difference is JD seems to be ahead in the processing time so sort of equalizes this between the two for a toss up. Got one of the underthrown under pressure TD passes that I feel its more on the defense not being able to adapt. Two back to back INTs not sure what he is registering vision-wise for those two.

App State: Still real good accuracy on the short to medium short passes. He's running a bit but unsurprising not like a JD which is fine still good to above average running from sort of a classic QB sized prospect. They get some positive yardage even though they get tripped up from behind. Ran a lot more than I thought naturally much less yards to show for it but was still getting some crucial first downs. Some misses throws clearly footwork out of wack but naturally the every hope is that can be cleaned up which is never a 100%. Like his overall play in this one.

Minn: First play scramble got blown up as he hit the side lines. Nothing negative but he's a big target not a lot of wriggle going to the sideline. Not a knock here just the comparison of avoiding hits or not in scrambles. 12:10 dig this off platform thrown but I would see the receiver deserved the more credit for hauling this one in since it was underthrown. Next couple of throws very accurate. Bad INT but then a series of nice accurate throws. Was under a bit of pressure but missed a receiver wide open (17:13). Nice middle of the field strike at 17:40.

Pitt: Initially looks like a low level newbie Helldiver 2 player trying to solo a too high level a mission and getting bug swarmed (not putting this on DM eval-wise). Some clutch runs to get some first downs (not long ones). Overall starting to really move against Pitt and getting some TDs. Again DM looking pretty accurate. Not worried about any out throws that sometimes miss for any QB ever. Last part of the game was a bit meh but they had the lead not really looking anything negative here.

Syracuse: Missed the wide open Tez pass but it was still in some advance before getting hit so I would ding the QB on that one especially seeing JD getting free runners and delivering strikes. Lots of accurate short passes. Still surprised how much he's running. He can break off big chunks like JD but is doing enough. Also stiff arming some folks.

Miami: Opposing team defense much better. A lot of short passes. Still not seeing any practical arm strength difference that give Maye an advantage over JD with his accuracy and timing. Not sure why he held on the ball with that 2nd blitzer right up the middle with plenty of time to see him. Notice at times he's really taking the velocity off the ball like trying to guide it which translates to wobbly spirals and not really sure if that is helping. Really great deep strike to Walker for a TD. Was also noticing what pundits were saying about the throwing motion but atm not really seeing a negative. It is long I think it is more an impact if Maye's processing is average or below ultimately. Some sacks some regular throws for the win.

Virginia: Really nice TD pass to Walker. Still running more than I would expect. Next few accuracy seems to be off was throwing behind some open receivers. Have noticed him starting down some areas though still got another TD not sure who got that one. Ok that throwing motion keeps standing out especially on the faster plays. Accuracy also suffering a bit in this stretch. Some good small QB runs including the one for a TD. Another passing TD slightly behind but JD had a couple of those also. Receiver was open enough. Oops must have got called back. Man that weird wind up is still bugging me especially when he goes off platform. Some inaccurate throws. Pretty mixed bag at this point in the game. Missed throws even with some crazy protection time. Ended up losing this game.

GT: Nice throw to Nesbit for the TD early. Do like that he really know when to throw the ball out of bounds and move on to the next play.

Still not finished will edit post as it goes.

 

[g00n]

We are setting up for some serious Cousins vs RG3 style rancor on this board, and probably every other discussion platform for that matter.

No matter who we take the other guy will have good weeks and our guy will have bad weeks, and vice versa. The atodasos will be epic.

 

[usiel]

We are setting up for some serious Cousins vs RG3 style rancor on this board, and probably every other discussion platform for that matter.

No matter who we take the other guy will have good weeks and our guy will have bad weeks, and vice versa. The atodasos will be epic.

Maybe I'm getting maudlin in my old age but I feel this thing is salvageable.

 

[hotpaws]

Ok, so what is it about DM that makes you think he's the one who will be the better processor under less time when they both reach the NFL?

Some stats: Maye was pressured on 149/506 drop backs, or 29.5% of the time. He threw 7 TD and 5 Ints and completed 43% of his passes for 6.7 yards per attempt. His NFL passer rating under pressure was 69 (108 when he was clean). He wasn't especially good under pressure, particularly compared to when he was clean. JD was pressured on 104/408 drop backs, or 25.5% of the time. He had 5 TDs and 0 Ints and completed 50% of his passes for 11.1 yards per attempt. His NFL passer rating under pressure was 123 (146 when he was clean). He was very solid under pressure, a modest drop vs when he was clean.

BTW their pressures that turned into sacks rate was: DM 19.5 and JD 20.2, not a huge difference.

So, I'd again ask what is it that you see which makes you think, when the pressure is turned up in the NFL, Maye is the one who will perform better?

We'll have to wait and see if they can process the game at a NFL level when they come into the league but what i do know is JD won't have the time in the pocket he did at LSU nor will his receivers be head and shoulders above the players covering them like they were in college , nor will he be more experienced and older/mature than the players he's playing against .

now saying this doesn't mean i think he'll bust but it is a concern for me when forming an opinion of who i want us to draft

 

[hotpaws]

I think the analysis can’t be so superficial….you can fairly evaluate a player’s mechanics, decision making, leadership, etc….on their own teams.

Footwork, throwing mechanics, ability to work all parts of the field, elite running ability…..all things you don’t need even teams to be able to evaluate.

You dismiss Maye’s most discussed weakness (messy footwork) like it’s nothing, yet everything says that’s a major problem with lots of credible people saying he might need to sit a long time while they develop him.

In the end, I’d love to just be totally sold on Maye, but his supporters don’t present a compelling argument FOR him, it’s always why NOT about JD.

if it was that easy to evaluate college players there wouldn't be so many that bust at the top of the draft and Stroud would have been easily the consensus num 1 pick last year considering how he performed as a rookie

as far as Maye's footwork , i didn't dismiss it i' said it was overblown , some people are acting like he can't walk without tripping over his own feet

 

[Roric]

We are setting up for some serious Cousins vs RG3 style rancor on this board, and probably every other discussion platform for that matter.

No matter who we take the other guy will have good weeks and our guy will have bad weeks, and vice versa. The atodasos will be epic.

This is why we should just trade up for caleb and be done with all this pettiness. I’ll have a word with adam

 

[EroCaps]

if it was that easy to evaluate college players there wouldn't be so many that bust at the top of the draft and Stroud would have been easily the consensus num 1 pick last year considering how he performed as a rookie

as far as Maye's footwork , i didn't dismiss it i' said it was overblown , some people are acting like he can't walk without tripping over his own feet

The Maye hate is ridiculous and won’t age well.

People are over analyzing this shit out of a small sample size and forgetting that this isn’t a straight up “Who had the better 2023?”.

The labels they slap on these QBs pre draft are always absurd. And they do it with virtually everyone except like Joe Burrow.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

if it was that easy to evaluate college players there wouldn't be so many that bust at the top of the draft and Stroud would have been easily the consensus num 1 pick last year considering how he performed as a rookie

as far as Maye's footwork , i didn't dismiss it i' said it was overblown , some people are acting like he can't walk without tripping over his own feet

Overblown….minimizing….dismissing as if it means nothing. And nobody said this was easy….

 

[ynotcaps]

We are setting up for some serious Cousins vs RG3 style rancor on this board, and probably every other discussion platform for that matter.

No matter who we take the other guy will have good weeks and our guy will have bad weeks, and vice versa. The atodasos will be epic.

Maybe we go full Texans, trade back up w/ NE to #3 and take them both.

Then it's knives and bats at Candy Cane City, baby!

 

[ynotcaps]

This is why we should just trade up for caleb and be done with all this pettiness. I’ll have a word with adam

But... but... but... painted fingernails!

 

[Roric]

We'll have to wait and see if they can process the game at a NFL level when they come into the league but what i do know is JD won't have the time in the pocket he did at LSU nor will his receivers be head and shoulders above the players covering them like they were in college , nor will he be more experienced and older/mature than the players he's playing against .

now saying this doesn't mean i think he'll bust but it is a concern for me when forming an opinion of who i want us to draft

Now here’s one thing I don’t understand: why does daniels get knocked for having elite receivers when burrow had jefferson and chase? Unless he did get knocked for that but I don’t remember.

Always felt like burrow can do no wrong in everyone’s eyes. Especially when he, as a pocket passer, ironically can’t stay healthy. An inevitability many swear by with daniels as a runner

 

[usiel]

We'll have to wait and see if they can process the game at a NFL level when they come into the league but what i do know is JD won't have the time in the pocket he did at LSU nor will his receivers be head and shoulders above the players covering them like they were in college , nor will he be more experienced and older/mature than the players he's playing against .

now saying this doesn't mean i think he'll bust but it is a concern for me when forming an opinion of who i want us to draft

Maye had his fair share of all day to throw in the pocket so far in the 2023 games I've watched. I think the receiver argument is a bit played out. Watch the ever pass/run for JD. Anyone can see when the receiver made the QB look good reeling in off throws or YAK/TD stats which I just ignored watching the games.

Edit: I just look at the delivery of the ball was it in stride and not challenging the catch radius ability. Don't be distracted by Nabers/Thomas/Lacey's YAK ability on plays.

Yes Maye did not have receiver other than Walker when it comes to YAK but still it was worth the time watching the all pass/run for 2023 for both JD/DM as I feel more comfortable with one or the other despite me favoring JD.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

But... but... but... painted fingernails!

I know you’re kidding but I feel less inclined to worry about that after hearing it’s a tribute to his mother, a nail salon tech or whatever they’re called.

 

[Ajax1995]

Now here’s one thing I don’t understand: why does daniels get knocked for having elite receivers when burrow had jefferson and chase? Unless he did get knocked for that but I don’t remember.

Always felt like burrow can do no wrong in everyone’s eyes. Especially when he, as a pocket passer, ironically can’t stay healthy. An inevitability many swear by with daniels as a runner

Burrow was the consensus #1 and there wasn’t anyone remotely close. Nobody was looking for a reason to possibly take a different QB.

And my recollection is they ran Burrow a reasonable amount in college. Not as much as Daniels this year but describing him as ‘just’ a pocket passer in college isn’t really accurate IMO.

 

[usiel]

On the whole CW nail painting nonsense I actually was kinda impressed. I've found that many folks, have a hard time going against sociological norms. For example for my younger brothers bachelor party I bought capes for the roughly party of 10 or so to use once we hit the DC bar crawling time of the night. I will never forget dropping this on everyone right before we headed out and my poor bro was speachless for five minutes. TBH he was frozen in terror about wearing a cape in public until finally he said a true thing that he couldn't do it. Only myself and one of my bandmates at the time could roll in wearing the capes not giving a crap about the eyeballing. Was just interesting seeing that in action.

 

[g00n]

Burrow was the consensus #1 and there wasn’t anyone remotely close. Nobody was looking for a reason to possibly take a different QB.

And my recollection is they ran Burrow a reasonable amount in college. Not as much as Daniels this year but describing him as ‘just’ a pocket passer in college isn’t really accurate IMO.

Yeah we took Chase Young at #2 that year because Alex Smith was the starter, pre-injury of course.

Tua had injury issues going into that draft iirc which hurt his value a bit, and don't recall Herbert having quite the same hype. They went 5 and 6OA, and Jordan Love was a late 1st.

If we didn't have Alex Smith back then I wonder if there would've been more hype trying to boost competition for 1 and 2OA. Same with Lions and Giants at 3 and 4 who were also out of the QB market.

On the whole CW nail painting nonsense I actually was kinda impressed. I've found that many folks, have a hard time going against sociological norms. For example for my younger brothers bachelor party I bought capes for the roughly party of 10 or so to use once we hit the DC bar crawling time of the night. I will never forget dropping this on everyone right before we headed out and my poor bro was speachless for five minutes. TBH he was frozen in terror about wearing a cape in public until finally he said a true thing that he couldn't do it. Only myself and one of my bandmates at the time could roll in wearing the capes not giving a crap about the eyeballing. Was just interesting seeing that in action.

Look! Down on the floor!
It's a dog! It's a rug!
It's...SUPERDRUNK!