2024 NHL Draft: WE DID IT, CELEBRINI IS OURS!!!

[26Mats]

Man is it ever crazy how the Pens are 3 points out of a playoff spot, and yet 3 points out of 10th last.

If their pick stays around 12th overall, the Karlsson trade is a a great trade. You'll get a great player.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

but if the consensus top-2 was Celebrini and Demidov and we picked 2nd, I would want Demidov. We also can't afford to pick for a positional need at this point, yet.

The problem is Demidov is not the consensus #2. Fans on here love him though because of how flashy he is...but no one has ever been picked that high out of the MHL. Watch his highlights, he's skating around people no problem.

I've been saying this that there is one position we can't waste a pick on, and it's playmaking wingers. All of our top prospects are playmakers. We need snipers, defenseman, and powerforwards. Demidov hasn't been so far ahead of everyone else that he's the clear cut BPA over guys with similar talents that bring different profiles we lack.

 

[Shark Finn]

The problem is Demidov is not the consensus #2. Fans on here love him though because of how flashy he is...but no one has ever been picked that high out of the MHL. Watch his highlights, he's skating around people no problem.

I've been saying this that there is one position we can't waste a pick on, and it's playmaking wingers. All of our top prospects are playmakers. We need snipers, defenseman, and powerforwards. Demidov hasn't been so far ahead of everyone else that he's the clear cut BPA over guys with similar talents that bring different profiles we lack.

That's why I said "if". There's no clear #2 to me.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Lindstrom and Silayev have been slipping in peoples opinions lately. There's going to be atleast 1 really good prospect available at the PIT pick.

 

[Jargon]

Lindstrom and Silayev have been slipping in peoples opinions lately. There's going to be atleast 1 really good prospect available at the PIT pick.

That’s my feeling too. Feels like this draft has a lot of “low floor but high ceiling” guys. It’s a risk but can pay off.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

That’s my feeling too. Feels like this draft has a lot of “low floor but high ceiling” guys. It’s a risk but can pay off.

It's what makes trading back appealing to me if we're not picking #1. If we're #2 or #3 and the guy we want to get out of the draft can be snagged at say 8 then we can talk to Calgary to see if they want to move up.

 

[cheechoo]

If the Sharks end up at 2 and nobody else separates themselves from now to the draft, what would you guys put the odds at that we draft Demidov?

I can't assign a statistical percentile to it, but It would be a shock to me.

Russia + anti winger bias is a kiss of death.

But it'd be the move I make though. Demidov is tracking as one of the best draft-eligible forwards (MHL, J20, U20) ever.

In your world where Rick Celebrini liquidates all of his assets to bribe Ernst & Young with; it wouldn't be an equivalent/fair outcome walking away from a ~40 point season with any of the defenders in this particular class, or Lindstrom and that bad back.

We need superstar talent and dynamic impact players & he fits that bill.

 

[Juxtaposer]

EP just published a pre-U18 draft ranking. It’s a premium article but a lot can be inferred from the free preview:

1. Celebrini
2. Demidov
3. Lindstrom
4. Levshunov
5. Parekh
6. Iginla
7/8. Catton/Dickinson in some order
9. Silayev
10. Buium
11. Eiserman
12. Helenius

They have Iginla and Catton basically neck and neck. Wouldn’t surprise me if Iginla ended up getting drafted higher, even though I do prefer Catton. I’ll fantasize about getting Catton at the Pens pick for as long as I can…

Other defensemen they ranked in the first round besides the ones I listed:

18. Yakemchuk
24. Elick
25. Brunicke
30. Jiricek
32. Danford

Then guys like Freij, Emery, Pulkkinen, and Badinka in the early 2nd. I would love to grab one of the first group and one of the second with #33 and the NJ 2nd. They rank the smaller offensive guys mid-2nd: Mews (45), Kiviharju (49), and Hutson (50).

I personally tend to like EP more than any other scouting service, though obviously I don’t always agree with them.

 

[coooldude]

EP just published a pre-U18 draft ranking. It’s a premium article but a lot can be inferred from the free preview:

1. Celebrini
2. Demidov
3. Lindstrom
4. Levshunov
5. Parekh
6. Iginla
7/8. Catton/Dickinson in some order
9. Silayev
10. Buium
11. Eiserman
12. Helenius

They have Iginla and Catton basically neck and neck. Wouldn’t surprise me if Iginla ended up getting drafted higher, even though I do prefer Catton. I’ll fantasize about getting Catton at the Pens pick for as long as I can…

Other defensemen they ranked in the first round besides the ones I listed:

18. Yakemchuk
24. Elick
25. Brunicke
30. Jiricek
32. Danford

Then guys like Freij, Emery, Pulkkinen, and Badinka in the early 2nd. I would love to grab one of the first group and one of the second with #33 and the NJ 2nd. They rank the smaller offensive guys mid-2nd: Mews (45), Kiviharju (49), and Hutson (50).

I personally tend to like EP more than any other scouting service, though obviously I don’t always agree with them.

Nice summary! I have the full article and here are the only things I would add:

• It's Iginla, Catton, Dickinson from 6-8
• They basically said it's 1, 2-3, and then 4-14 as one tier
• 13-16 (for potential pens pick) is Greentree, Connelly, MBN, Basha (big riser)
• Latourneau, the 6'7" smooth skating high school center, is 29, which is higher than many had him previously. I mention it because I could see Grier going for the crazy upside.

I agree with your idea of picking a D with #33 and #40-ish. It would be a dream if we could pick up Elick or Jiricek and then Emery or Badinka-ish.

They also mentioned that the fall of Eiserman and Helenius in this ranking were less about them and more about the other players, which indicates that the top 14 is overall getting "stronger" as prospects in my mind. This is why I'm still lightly hoping for the Pens pick.

My draft crush Yak is surprisingly low, but he is nearly as polarizing as Parekh.

 

[cheechoo]

Iginla at #6, damn.

Montreal are allegedly all over him. Top management have met with him at least four documented times. He's going to be so fun to follow at the next level. Hattrick in the playoffs for Kelowna. Totally invested in this Iginla vs Catton debate (#TeamCatton).

That list is pretty much where I am atm. I understand the fact that we need defenders and badly. I've been watching a bunch of those old Stanley Cup run montages that show a team going all the way and the trials tribulations and struggles along the way, the big goals, the clutch moments etc.

If you believe Levshunov can be a Keith/Letang/Gonchar etc type of beast that controls all situations for us, then he's a no brainer at #2. I'm a bit more hesitant though. I just at this point in time don't envisage him in that bracket. #4 in the class feels fair.

On another note, Dallas has been extensively scouting Michael Brandsegg-Nygård. They won't be anywhere near in position to draft him, but it's huge validation if they fancy him. They've got the best scouts in the league.

 

[hohosaregood]

I wonder if there's some implication that Iginla's just gonna get drafted by Calgary regardless.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Nice summary! I have the full article and here are the only things I would add:

• It's Iginla, Catton, Dickinson from 6-8
• They basically said it's 1, 2-3, and then 4-14 as one tier
• 13-16 (for potential pens pick) is Greentree, Connelly, MBN, Basha (big riser)
• Latourneau, the 6'7" smooth skating high school center, is 29, which is higher than many had him previously. I mention it because I could see Grier going for the crazy upside.

I agree with your idea of picking a D with #33 and #40-ish. It would be a dream if we could pick up Elick or Jiricek and then Emery or Badinka-ish.

They also mentioned that the fall of Eiserman and Helenius in this ranking were less about them and more about the other players, which indicates that the top 14 is overall getting "stronger" as prospects in my mind. This is why I'm still lightly hoping for the Pens pick.

My draft crush Yak is surprisingly low, but he is nearly as polarizing as Parekh.

I recently bought the EP premium membership because I really like their draft content, but I think it’s against HF policy to straight up list stuff that’s behind a paywall.

I don’t know if you read their film room article in Yakemchuk, but I think it explains why they’re a little lower on him than consensus. I agree with it overall but I am also a Brent Burns truther, so… Yakemchuk is so skilled and can do so much offensively but he’s very bad defensively, not a good enough skater to make up for it (like Burns was), and is really old for the draft class—at 6’3” and 18 years old all year for his third full WHL season, Yakemchuk has no excuse to be this bad defensively except maybe a little that he plays a lot of minutes. But the upside is so high, so I completely understand why some folks are higher on him. The highlights are jaw-dropping and he’s a physical RHD. I still think he’ll go top-10, but it’s possible if someone else tears up the U18 that he gets “forgotten” a bit, since his season is completely over.

My ideal draft would definitely be something like:

1. Celebrini
11. Catton if he falls or one of the D (whichever of Buium/Silayev/Yakemchuk/Parekh is left)
33. Elick/Jiricek/Brunicke
42. Badinka/Freij/Mews

I have a feeling that Freij will rise into the 1st round similar (but not quite to the extent) that Willander did last year after the U18.

On another note, Dallas has been extensively scouting Michael Brandsegg-Nygård. They won't be anywhere near in position to draft him, but it's huge validation if they fancy him. They've got the best scouts in the league.

I genuinely feel like paying someone to infiltrate the Stars draft room would be the best use of money an NHL team could spend. And I do like Brandsegg-Nygard a ton.

I wonder if there's some implication that Iginla's just gonna get drafted by Calgary regardless.

Iginla is good enough that he’s a reasonable pick for where Calgary is, nepotism aside.

 

[wishman]

I recently bought the EP premium membership because I really like their draft content, but I think it’s against HF policy to straight up list stuff that’s behind a paywall.

But you can view it for free on YouTube!

 

[Juxtaposer]

But you can view it for free on YouTube!

Oh perfect, didn’t know the video came out so soon. Always love watching these things.

 

[coooldude]

I recently bought the EP premium membership because I really like their draft content, but I think it’s against HF policy to straight up list stuff that’s behind a paywall.

I don’t know if you read their film room article in Yakemchuk, but I think it explains why they’re a little lower on him than consensus. I agree with it overall but I am also a Brent Burns truther, so… Yakemchuk is so skilled and can do so much offensively but he’s very bad defensively, not a good enough skater to make up for it (like Burns was), and is really old for the draft class—at 6’3” and 18 years old all year for his third full WHL season, Yakemchuk has no excuse to be this bad defensively except maybe a little that he plays a lot of minutes. But the upside is so high, so I completely understand why some folks are higher on him. The highlights are jaw-dropping and he’s a physical RHD. I still think he’ll go top-10, but it’s possible if someone else tears up the U18 that he gets “forgotten” a bit, since his season is completely over.

My ideal draft would definitely be something like:

1. Celebrini
11. Catton if he falls or one of the D (whichever of Buium/Silayev/Yakemchuk/Parekh is left)
33. Elick/Jiricek/Brunicke
42. Badinka/Freij/Mews

I like your ideal draft a ton, so hopefully it falls our way.

On Yak, definitely... those who list him highly typically explain away the bad D as "he's getting caught on the ice trying to do too much and tired at the end of shifts / bad team / etc" and they think he can improve, but the tape is ugly for sure. Just feels like the kinda guy who could figure it out... I realize I say that Lev doesn't seem like that guy, so not sure why that feeling is there for me and would like to understand that internally a bit better. Maybe it's a matter of where they're talked about being drafted. Either of them are excellent at 11-15, but both of them scare me at 2-4.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I like your ideal draft a ton, so hopefully it falls our way.

On Yak, definitely... those who list him highly typically explain away the bad D as "he's getting caught on the ice trying to do too much and tired at the end of shifts / bad team / etc" and they think he can improve, but the tape is ugly for sure. Just feels like the kinda guy who could figure it out... I realize I say that Lev doesn't seem like that guy, so not sure why that feeling is there for me and would like to understand that internally a bit better. Maybe it's a matter of where they're talked about being drafted. Either of them are excellent at 11-15, but both of them scare me at 2-4.

I think Yakemchuk vs. Parekh is a really interesting debate. Yakemchuk’s one-on-one skills are better and obviously his physicality is a huge strength, he’s mean as hell. But I actually think Parekh’s offensive game is more suited to NHL team-play. Yakemchuk highlights pop off more than Parekh because Yakemchuk can do it all offensively and has that bomb of a shot, whereas most of Parekh’s points that I’ve seen are truly cohesive team plays, setting up his teammates in good positions to score. Yakemchuk’s playmaking is solid but I wouldn’t call it high-end, whereas Parekh is legitimately fantastic. It feels lazy, but Parekh is the most Karlsson-like prospect I’ve ever seen compared to Karlsson.

I think Parekh is a little better defensively right now, but I think it’s fair to project Yakemchuk as having higher defensive upside simply because of his size and physicality.

For me, the difference between Levshunov and Yakemchuk defensively is that Levshunov can get back and his rush defense can be really good—as you’ve mentioned, he’s super inconsistent, but he absolutely can make elite defensive plays. Yakemchuk’s offense takes him wildly out of position so much and he doesn’t have the skating to get back and defend the way Burns was capable of doing. I wonder how much of Yakemchuk’s offense translates to the NHL.

 

[Kcoyote3]

Their ranking is vibing with my own a lot more. Demidov at 2, Lindstrom high, Lev as the top D. I have Catton and Helenius higher but meh, overall pretty similar. We just had Cam Robinson on the podcast today (to spoil a future episode) and got some insight into their current rankings.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Their ranking is vibing with my own a lot more. Demidov at 2, Lindstrom high, Lev as the top D. I have Catton and Helenius higher but meh, overall pretty similar. We just had Cam Robinson on the podcast today (to spoil a future episode) and got some insight into their current rankings.

I got through the EP ranking video and honestly, it was so gratifying to hear a couple of my opinions validated by real people in the scouting sphere. Specifically, they mentioned questioning Dickinson’s hockey sense and decision making, which I don’t think I’ve seen anyone do despite it being my biggest gripe about him. They also mention Buium as someone with a high floor, which I totally agree with—I’ve seen people call him boom-bust and I think that’s way off.

It was also really interesting to hear their take on Iginla vs. Catton. It kinda sounded like how they talked about Benson vs. Smith last year.

 

[coooldude]

Magic number down to 7 points from sharks losses or hawks wins. 3 losses or wins and an OTL by either team. So close now.

 

[mogambomoroo]

Even if we don't get Celebrini, I think the silver lining is that we could really help our blue line with couple of moves. I know I've been banging on this drum for a while now, but still feel it could help this franchise.
Draft Levshunov with own 1st round pick,
Trade up with Pittsburgh 1st rounder, SJ 2nd rounder + something to get to top 10 pick and use that for a defencemen (Dickinson, Parekh, Buium)
That would really help the rebuild in the long run. You don't have to worry as much about the defence next year and defencemen will get time to develop.
To me these drafts when there is a lot of defencemen in top 12 are the ones that need to be taking advantage of if the defensive pool is bad.

Best case scenario is of course draft Celebrini + top 10 pick for defencemen (trade up with pittsburgh 1st + sj 2nd and something)

 

[LilLeeroy]

Apparently Cole Eiserman has a twin brother. Not saying we should draft him because of that, but it would definitely open the door for some interesting trick plays if we do (I'm not sure if they are identical though).

 

[LilLeeroy]

Are there going to be any good defensemen in the 15-20 range of the draft? Maybe Jiricek if he drops because of his injury.

 

[hotcabbagesoup]

Apparently Cole Eiserman has a twin brother. Not saying we should draft him because of that, but it would definitely open the door for some interesting trick plays if we do (I'm not sure if they are identical though).

Cale Yzerman.

He doesn't play hockey though. He took much grief from grade school classmates for being named after Makar and Stevie Y and decided on going to trade school instead.

 

[coooldude]

Not the best, not the worst day for the tank.

• Hawks win offsets sharks win. Magic number down to 5, two losses or hawks wins and any OTL clinches first.
• PIT wins, putting their playoff odds at 35% on moneypuck. Ahead of WSH now. It's anyone's spot. Flyers are losing, their loss would boost them again. We're gonna need some voodoo to get that pick back in the ideal 11-12 range.
• NJD is up, bad because we want their 2rd pick to be high.

 

[Barrie22]

Not the best, not the worst day for the tank.

• Hawks win offsets sharks win. Magic number down to 5, two losses or hawks wins and any OTL clinches first.
• PIT wins, putting their playoff odds at 35% on moneypuck. Ahead of WSH now. It's anyone's spot. Flyers are losing, their loss would boost them again. We're gonna need some voodoo to get that pick back in the ideal 11-12 range.
• NJD is up, bad because we want their 2rd pick to be high.

If philly loses tonight, pens will be in the final wild card spot.