Pre-Game Talk: 2024 Draft Thread

[Mike Liut]

SOLD - late first, early second?


Will Skahan is a 6-foot-4, 212-pound defenceman and 2024 NHL Draft prospect who plays for the USNTDP U18 squad. He's every bit as punishing and intimidating as his profile would suggest, but that's not where the story ends with this player.

our early 2nd

 

[Mike Liut]

Imagine Dman 6’7 Silayev and 6’4 Skahan?

I wouldn’t complain

 

[execwrite1]

Blues have nine picks now - Let's go Army - everyone not named Thomas, Kyrou or Parayko is available.

Best candidates for a 1st rounder - Buchnevich - Schenn - Binnington?

1st round - Blues
2nd round - Blues and Toronto
3rd round - Blues and Rangers
4th round - Blues
5th round - Blues
6th round - no pick
7th round - Blues and Islanders

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

SOLD - late first, early second?


Will Skahan is a 6-foot-4, 212-pound defenceman and 2024 NHL Draft prospect who plays for the USNTDP U18 squad. He's every bit as punishing and intimidating as his profile would suggest, but that's not where the story ends with this player.

2nd round but there are better players to consider. Colton Roberts for one. Charlie Elick. Good draft when you peel back the layers.

 

[Frenzy31]

SOLD - late first, early second?


Will Skahan is a 6-foot-4, 212-pound defenceman and 2024 NHL Draft prospect who plays for the USNTDP U18 squad. He's every bit as punishing and intimidating as his profile would suggest, but that's not where the story ends with this player.

i have seen him play in person a couple times this year and also a few times last year. I really prefer Emery.

A late rounder who could be similar to Fischer is Whipple. I also like Stiga, whom is always noticable, but he is on the small side.

 

[Spektre]

Blues have nine picks now - Let's go Army - everyone not named Thomas, Kyrou or Parayko is available.

Best candidates for a 1st rounder - Buchnevich - Schenn - Binnington?

1st round - Blues
2nd round - Blues and Toronto
3rd round - Blues and Rangers
4th round - Blues
5th round - Blues
6th round - no pick
7th round - Blues and Islanders

Schenn is nearly untradable because his contract is horrendous for what he brings to the ice. If by some miracle you were to trade him there's no way a team is giving up a 1st round pick.

 

[joe galiba]

Schenn is nearly untradable because his contract is horrendous for what he brings to the ice. If by some miracle you were to trade him there's no way a team is giving up a 1st round pick.

I wonder if he is playing through something again, it seems like he has stretches like this every so often and after the fact we find out he was playing through something that would have most mortals laying on a couch for 6 months

 

[Spektre]

I wonder if he is playing through something again, it seems like he has stretches like this every so often and after the fact we find out he was playing through something that would have most mortals laying on a couch for 6 months

He looks the same to me every game going back to the beginning of last year.

Plays die on his stick often.

He still checks.

He's just not that good anymore.

 

[Mike Liut]

Schenn’s salary might not be optimal, but I think he‘ll still be a fine 3rd / 4th line player for the duration of his contract and bring leadership to all the upcoming young players.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

He looks the same to me every game going back to the beginning of last year.

Plays die on his stick often.

He still checks.

He's just not that good anymore.

i don't think this is fair or accurate. if you look at this stats, he is shooting, hitting, blocking shots, give/takeaway, at basically same rate as last few years. He is shooting percentage is at much lower rate than his career average, so his goals are off. and his linemates aren't scoring, as evidenced by on-ice shooting percentage over 2 points below his career average, plus his +/- is bad because we aren't getting saves when he is on ice, we are at 85.8% on ice save %, which is 5 pts below his career average. his corsi is still strong.

What this all tells me is that schenn is playing in bad luck (and/or with lesser linemates than prior) and he should be fine. he has always been streaky. he will get hot at some point and his numbers will revert to what we expect (especially if we can play him with someone decent). he may not be what he was 6 years ago, but his decline is nowhere near as bad as it sometimes look.

 

[Spektre]

i don't think this is fair or accurate. if you look at this stats, he is shooting, hitting, blocking shots, give/takeaway, at basically same rate as last few years. He is shooting percentage is at much lower rate than his career average, so his goals are off. and his linemates aren't scoring, as evidenced by on-ice shooting percentage over 2 points below his career average, plus his +/- is bad because we aren't getting saves when he is on ice, we are at 85.8% on ice save %, which is 5 pts below his career average. his corsi is still strong.

What this all tells me is that schenn is playing in bad luck (and/or with lesser linemates than prior) and he should be fine. he has always been streaky. he will get hot at some point and his numbers will revert to what we expect (especially if we can play him with someone decent). he may not be what he was 6 years ago, but his decline is nowhere near as bad as it sometimes look.

I wasn't saying that the only thing he does is checks.. I was merely pointing out he does still try

We can play a Schenn game every GDT. I will give Schenn a point for every good thing he does and a negative point for every bad thing. I can post each one public in the GDT so it's not like I'm making up things. I wish Schenn was better, and his career wasn't drastically going the wrong way, but it happens.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I wasn't saying that the only thing he does is checks.. I was merely pointing out he does still try

We can play a Schenn game every GDT. I will give Schenn a point for every good thing he does and a negative point for every bad thing. I can post each one public in the GDT so it's not like I'm making up things. I wish Schenn was better, and his career wasn't drastically going the wrong way, but it happens.

i'm not saying it's impossible he's fallen off a cliff. it does happen. but looking at totality of his stats, i think it's largely puck luck. he has always made those wtf was he thinking? passes. but enough pucks went in and now they aren't for him or his linemates, just opposition. it's still small enough sample that i'm not ready to buy into cliff narrative, but i would be curious how your tracking goes.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

i have seen him play in person a couple times this year and also a few times last year. I really prefer Emery.

A late rounder who could be similar to Fischer is Whipple. I also like Stiga, whom is always noticable, but he is on the small side.

I think you missed the question. I agree. I would take Emery over Skahan, but he isn’t as physical as Skahan. He’s one heck of a babysitter for Hutson. Good player.

I’ve been unimpressed by the USNTP team. If Eiserman should fall, then I wouldn’t be opposed. I see a 40+ goal guy. We build stadiums for one trick ponies like that.

 

[Frenzy31]

I wasn't saying that the only thing he does is checks.. I was merely pointing out he does still try

We can play a Schenn game every GDT. I will give Schenn a point for every good thing he does and a negative point for every bad thing. I can post each one public in the GDT so it's not like I'm making up things. I wish Schenn was better, and his career wasn't drastically going the wrong way, but it happens.

I agree that Schenn hasn't been able to do much this year. But part of that is his line mates. To be frank, we have all of our top guys playing on the first line so he is stuck with players that are really 3rd liners. They are playing good defensive hockey, but man they are not offering much offensively.

He looked much better with Hayes and Kyrou that short time they played together. His line is a cycle line. Add to the fact that the PP has really struggled, and you get a guy underperforming.

 

[MissouriMook]

I agree that Schenn hasn't been able to do much this year. But part of that is his line mates. To be frank, we have all of our top guys playing on the first line so he is stuck with players that are really 3rd liners. They are playing good defensive hockey, but man they are not offering much offensively.

He looked much better with Hayes and Kyrou that short time they played together. His line is a cycle line. Add to the fact that the PP has really struggled, and you get a guy underperforming.

I feel like a lot of his struggles lately has been from being handcuffed to Kapanen. I’m not a fan at all of Kapanen and don’t see any of the things that others do when they suggest bringing him back. I can’t wait to get rid of him.

Take these comments, however, with a huge grain of salt because it is 100% based on the eye test and 0% on data. I haven’t seen any WOWY data, but it sure seems to me that Schenn is at his worst when he’s been paired with Kapanen.

 

[TK 421]

One of the things to keep in mind regarding Schenn or another vet player is that while they may be in their decline a new talented linemate can rejuvenate them to some extent and impact their point totals in positive ways. In Schenn's case he gets to look forward to an eventual shift back to RW once Dvorsky becomes a full time center. These things can and will alter how we view him depending on how it all works out. He'll age but he'll start getting very skilled young linemates to play with and eventually a less demanding position to play. It's not like he's going to stay the 2C for the rest of this contract so worst case scenario is his last year or two he's a very expensive 4th liner like Steener was for the Cup run.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

I feel like a lot of his struggles lately has been from being handcuffed to Kapanen. I’m not a fan at all of Kapanen and don’t see any of the things that others do when they suggest bringing him back. I can’t wait to get rid of him.

Take these comments, however, with a huge grain of salt because it is 100% based on the eye test and 0% on data. I haven’t seen any WOWY data, but it sure seems to me that Schenn is at his worst when he’s been paired with Kapanen.

Schenn has been declining for 2+ years now. This isn't a current event. He was graded out as one of the worst defensive players in the entire league last year by Dom at the Athletic (Grain of salt, but still, like literally the worst, worse then Kyrou if I remember right) - which is super concerning b/c everyone thinks of Schenn as a hard working, two-way player.

His puck possession over the first half of the year has been abysmal. Kyrou was on his line for the better part of 20ish games and was clearly carrying the mail on that line night in and night out, and now that Kyrou isn't with Schenn, his line is a complete non-factor. He rarely kills penalties anymore. He's doing nothing on the PP, even though he's been our defacto right circle one-timer option or our net front presence option, and hasn't been able to produce anything in either spot.

I think Kapenen is a completely reasonable 3rd liner who kills penalties. I'm honestly not even sure what Schenn is at this point. The dude had TWO points (both assists) in the month of December. That's with 2nd line minutes and top PP time. That's f***ing abysmal.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

been watching some of ntdp. Aside from hating their blue jerseys (hard to read numbers), what stands out to me is how unimpressive the d look. Hutson and whipple keep getting caved in by the college teams (admittedly older guys) and manon rheaumes kid is a 25 draftee but he looks shaky too.

Skahan and emery feel like they are interesting prospect, but I’ve yet to see much of anything compelling from either. now with skahan that may be a good thing, but emery keeps looking at guys scoring while he is nearby. Now I know d can develop slower and are harder to evaluate, so I will keep coming back to guys like these. Given size and skating and all, I am not ruling either out as becoming really good player. but as of today, don’t see first round pick yet either.

 

[kimzey59]

been watching some of ntdp. Aside from hating their blue jerseys (hard to read numbers), what stands out to me is how unimpressive the d look. Hutson and whipple keep getting caved in by the college teams (admittedly older guys) and manon rheaumes kid is a 25 draftee but he looks shaky too.

Skahan and emery feel like they are interesting prospect, but I’ve yet to see much of anything compelling from either. now with skahan that may be a good thing, but emery keeps looking at guys scoring while he is nearby. Now I know d can develop slower and are harder to evaluate, so I will keep coming back to guys like these. Given size and skating and all, I am not ruling either out as becoming really good player. but as of today, don’t see first round pick yet either.

The NTDP hasn't been good at producing D men for a good while now.
You might get the occasional Hughes or Sanderson, but for the most part they just don't produce good talent.
My personal opinion is that it's a coaching issue. They aren't getting a good foundation at the u-17 level(Moore and Kolarik don't seem to believe in playing defense) and Matt Gilroy(the guy working the u-18 D) just isn't that good of a coach.

They really need to do a hard look at how they're selecting and developing D in their system. They really haven't been giving the players on that side of the puck a fair shake.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

The NTDP hasn't been good at producing D men for a good while now.
You might get the occasional Hughes or Sanderson, but for the most part they just don't produce good talent.
My personal opinion is that it's a coaching issue. They aren't getting a good foundation at the u-17 level(Moore and Kolarik don't seem to believe in playing defense) and Matt Gilroy(the guy working the u-18 D) just isn't that good of a coach.

They really need to do a hard look at how they're selecting and developing D in their system. They really haven't been giving the players on that side of the puck a fair shake.

i think you are on to something. the system they play seems to be great for hutsons who can just wander anywhere on ice, but for more traditional d it's harder for them to show there. whether it is buium putting up huge numbers at du after middling production at ntdp, or brustiwicz (sp?) busting out in ohl after leaving program, doesn't seem optimal that a defenseman needs to be at level of hughes or sanderson to benefit from playing there.

 

[kimzey59]

i think you are on to something. the system they play seems to be great for hutsons who can just wander anywhere on ice, but for more traditional d it's harder for them to show there. whether it is buium putting up huge numbers at du after middling production at ntdp, or brustiwicz (sp?) busting out in ohl after leaving program, doesn't seem optimal that a defenseman needs to be at level of hughes or sanderson to benefit from playing there.

That, plus they've had an absolutely insane batch of forwards the last few years. Assists are hard to come by when you have lines like Perreault/Smith/Leonard and Gauthier/Cooley/Snuggles(not to mention that ridiculous 18-19 team) that are controlling the puck for minutes at a time in the offensive zone.

Inadequate coaching plus extremely top heavy forward units is not a good environment for a young Defenseman.

 

[Blueswin]

If the Blues end up picking in the 10-12 range in this years draft what good defenseman do you think would still be available?

 

[TK 421]

RD Zayne Parekh had his 2nd hat trick of the season scoring his 16th, 17th and 18th goals while also adding 2 assists for a 5 pt game. Last year he had 21 in 50 games so he's on track to best that despite some claiming last year was a career year unlikely to be replicated. Whoops, swing and a miss. Those same people suggested he couldn't play a pro style game, meanwhile he inverted last years goal heavy stat line for that of a pro style distributor and is currently sitting at GP-37, G-18, A-37, Pts-55.

While this player does have some very legitimate concerns surrounding his ability/willingness to defend at the next level he's changed his offensive game in the way he needed to in order to have a shot at being a top 4 D instead of just a really, REALLY skilled 3rd pair/PP specialist. What he's showing NHL teams is that he can supply a ton of raw ability for them to utilize in fueling their offense both 5v5 as a distributor and transition D and also as a PP hammer with the shot of a demi-god.

I normally don't favor OFD but I love this kid and it's been fun watching him rack up the points while shouldering more responsibility this year.

 

[kimzey59]

If the Blues end up picking in the 10-12 range in this years draft what good defenseman do you think would still be available?

First name that comes to mind is Jiricek.
At that range, you can probably rule out Dickinson, Silayev and Levshunov. But we'd be in a pretty good spot to grab the best of the next tier: Jiricek, Buium, Yakemchuk, Parekh.

However, we'd also have a heck of a decision to make if one of the top forwards drop out of the top 10 for whatever reason(specifically looking at Demidov and Helenius).

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

If the Blues end up picking in the 10-12 range in this years draft what good defenseman do you think would still be available?

That is interesting question. I've been watching lots of games (and highlights when I can't find games) of d prospects to try to get my arms around this. Currently there are 2 guys who I am confident have top pair upside (doesn't mean they will reach it, just that it's not that hard to squint and see it without anything crazy happening). Those are Dickinson and Silyaev and neither are likely to be around past top 5-7 picks (if they make it that long).

The next few guys all have a lot more questions about them-

Levshunov is most likely going to go in top 10, maybe top 5, but I am not yet convinced. He has prototypical size, is putting up great stats in NCAA, and skates quite well for his size. But every time I watch him he looks like a disaster in his own end, is sloppy with the puck, and leaves me with more questions than answers. Now, 2 years ago he was playing in Belarus and is 3rd youngest guy in NCAA, so I anticipate there is still quite a bit of runway here with him. He COULD be a stud #1 guy. Or he could be much, much less. This is guy who you want to watch every month or so to see his progress, bc if it clicks for him he could be exactly who you are looking for. By the teens I think risk is worth it. At 5-7 range I'm not there, yet.

Buium is probably the next best guy. He is 2nd youngest guy in NCAA (after Celebrini) and reminds me a lot of Shatty. I think he will be very good NHL player and is appropriate value in 10-12 range if not a bit higher. is lefty but is playing right side. however, i think he is ideally the anchor of 2nd pair with easier minutes and not the 1st pair stud we are ideally seeking. that said, if he is best guy on board when we pick i would take him.

after that, it gets a lot more jumbled. you have parekh and yakemchuck who are both really good offensively and kind of a mess defensively. they can improve on d and become what you are looking for, but will they? at some point the upside makes it worth it and if all they are is tyson barrie types it's not the worst outcome, but not at 10-12.

you have a couple of european guys who were highly touted but were having rough seasons before getting hurt. i think kiviharju will be back at some point this season, but jiricek won't. kiviharju looks to have great hockey sense but is only 5'10". Jiricek (younger brother of cbj young stud) has all the tools and good size (less than his brother who was top 10 pick couple years ago), but for every nice play he makes there is 1 that makes you wonder if he will ever be decent nhl player. lots of folks like him, but i get bust vibes from him.

Beyond those guys, I don't yet have any d at a level that would merit serious consideration in top 12 picks or so. There are still some intriguing guys who i think i would be comfortable taking later in 1st or at least in 2nd (LSW and Freij from Sweden, Shuravin perhaps, Skahan and Emery from NTDP, and multiple intriguing guys in CHL led by Mews). D tend to develop slower than forwards, so it's not unusual for them to be risers as we get closer to draft so this is something to continue to monitor in the months ahead.