That is interesting question. I've been watching lots of games (and highlights when I can't find games) of d prospects to try to get my arms around this. Currently there are 2 guys who I am confident have top pair upside (doesn't mean they will reach it, just that it's not that hard to squint and see it without anything crazy happening). Those are Dickinson and Silyaev and neither are likely to be around past top 5-7 picks (if they make it that long).
The next few guys all have a lot more questions about them-
Levshunov is most likely going to go in top 10, maybe top 5, but I am not yet convinced. He has prototypical size, is putting up great stats in NCAA, and skates quite well for his size. But every time I watch him he looks like a disaster in his own end, is sloppy with the puck, and leaves me with more questions than answers. Now, 2 years ago he was playing in Belarus and is 3rd youngest guy in NCAA, so I anticipate there is still quite a bit of runway here with him. He COULD be a stud #1 guy. Or he could be much, much less. This is guy who you want to watch every month or so to see his progress, bc if it clicks for him he could be exactly who you are looking for. By the teens I think risk is worth it. At 5-7 range I'm not there, yet.
Buium is probably the next best guy. He is 2nd youngest guy in NCAA (after Celebrini) and reminds me a lot of Shatty. I think he will be very good NHL player and is appropriate value in 10-12 range if not a bit higher. is lefty but is playing right side. however, i think he is ideally the anchor of 2nd pair with easier minutes and not the 1st pair stud we are ideally seeking. that said, if he is best guy on board when we pick i would take him.
after that, it gets a lot more jumbled. you have parekh and yakemchuck who are both really good offensively and kind of a mess defensively. they can improve on d and become what you are looking for, but will they? at some point the upside makes it worth it and if all they are is tyson barrie types it's not the worst outcome, but not at 10-12.
you have a couple of european guys who were highly touted but were having rough seasons before getting hurt. i think kiviharju will be back at some point this season, but jiricek won't. kiviharju looks to have great hockey sense but is only 5'10". Jiricek (younger brother of cbj young stud) has all the tools and good size (less than his brother who was top 10 pick couple years ago), but for every nice play he makes there is 1 that makes you wonder if he will ever be decent nhl player. lots of folks like him, but i get bust vibes from him.
Beyond those guys, I don't yet have any d at a level that would merit serious consideration in top 12 picks or so. There are still some intriguing guys who i think i would be comfortable taking later in 1st or at least in 2nd (LSW and Freij from Sweden, Shuravin perhaps, Skahan and Emery from NTDP, and multiple intriguing guys in CHL led by Mews). D tend to develop slower than forwards, so it's not unusual for them to be risers as we get closer to draft so this is something to continue to monitor in the months ahead.
