Pre-Game Talk: 2024 Draft Thread

[PerryTurnbullfan]

interesting. that makes sense but i might be a bit higher on him. i see him as a lesser ryan leonard, a guy who has size and speed and shot and can complement better players but isn't going to be huge producer on his own because he doesn't seem to have that high-end offensive sense. depending on who else is on board i think value could be there in mid-late teens (not necessarily for us).

If all the big defenseman are gone…and a Catton or Helenius doesn’t fall. I would pick him over Greentree and Hemming

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

If all the big defenseman are gone…and a Catton or Helenius doesn’t fall. I would pick him over Greentree and Hemming

Agreed. FWIW, if we don't win lottery and don't get a D, those are the 2 forwards that would most excite me (along with lindstrom if he is there).

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

Agreed. FWIW, if we don't win lottery and don't get a D, those are the 2 forwards that would most excite me (along with lindstrom if he is there).

Celebrini
Lindstrom
Silyayev
Dickinson
Levshunov
Demidov
Eiserman
Helenius
Catton

Yak
Nygard
Buium
Jiricek
Iginla
Elick

No certain order on these guys yet but I have them tiered this way off the cuff so maybe missing someone

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Celebrini
Lindstrom
Silyayev
Dickinson
Levshunov
Demidov
Eiserman
Helenius
Catton

Yak
Nygard
Buium
Jiricek
Iginla
Elick

No certain order on these guys yet but I have them tiered this way off the cuff so maybe missing someone

I think I am pretty much right in line on 1st tier (don't have order flushed out yet), still working on next tier. I think as of now, I have Parekh and maybe Emery (I will try to put notes together on last night's game but he stood out to me in way that I was hoping for and hadn't seen yet in his USNDTP games) in 2nd tier, and probably don't have Jiricek that high. still up in air on where to place Elick.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

I think I am pretty much right in line on 1st tier (don't have order flushed out yet), still working on next tier. I think as of now, I have Parekh and maybe Emery (I will try to put notes together on last night's game but he stood out to me in way that I was hoping for and hadn't seen yet in his USNDTP games) in 2nd tier, and probably don't have Jiricek that high. still up in air on where to place Elick.

I would’ve like to have seen Jiricek at the juniors as I agree. Why have Elick down for his offense when he has shown basically none? Is Parekh going to hit a wall with faster opposition? He isn’t a blazer now. Perunovich II? He doesn’t score he really isn’t an NHLer

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I would’ve like to have seen Jiricek at the juniors as I agree. Why have Elick down for his offense when he has shown basically none? Is Parekh going to hit a wall with faster opposition? He isn’t a blazer now. Perunovich II? He doesn’t score he really isn’t an NHLer

Elick- I don't hold lack of offense against him, but I want to see more of him to better understand him. Does he make good first pass or is nervous with puck? Does he anticipate transition or does he kill it. I don't care about his points, but need to get comfortable that we are looking at potential k'andre miller type and aren't spending 1st on next mikkola. this is similar to where i was on emery and am now comfortable with him in top 20.

Parekh- He is obviously basically the opposite. His offense is great. He really seems to think and read the offensive game well. I was super dubious of him, but more I watch he keeps getting better. At pretty much everything. Last year he was mostly a shooter and now he is a primary playmaker while still scoring goals at crazy amount. I like his skating too. He isn't quinn hughes as a skater, but he looks to be plus skater who often glides (especially in o zone) until he sees opening and then he goes. and unlike peru he actually has nhl size for a defender. i obviously don't expect him to be shutdown guy, but he looks willing and able to physically engage. it feels like with work he can be fine defensively, given the offense he looks to be able to drive. and considering how much he has improved his offensive game i would hope he could do the same defensively. again, if he was already there defensively he would be pushing top 5 with his offensive skills, so he isn't without risk i think there is still huge upside as a kylington or chabot-type guy.

 

[joe galiba]

Sounds like the perfect Blue

Michael BrandseggNygard | Michael BrandseggNygard Profile | Michael BrandseggNygard Scouting Report 2024

Michael BrandseggNygard scouting report for NHL Draft. Profile contains Michael BrandseggNygard stats, videos and written bios

www.mynhldraft.com

way too many letters in his name to draft

 

[Mike Liut]

Quality or quantity?

Would you package both our 2nds to move up from #10 to get the player you want?

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

I would consider the biggest factor to be if they employ professional scouts vs doing it as a hobby. Which is not to say I know, just that would be my main criterion.

So looking at the previous 2023 draft, a couple list really stick out in accuracy. An Elite prospects list done by Robins(?) picked 30 of 32 first round picks not in order. Flo, McKeens, Kennedy, and Pronman picked 29 of 32. EP big misses were Theo Lindstein and Fisker Molgaard. The other was Edstein 32 by 2 places he had 34. Also picking 8 of the top ten and missing on Danielson like almost everyone did and Dvorsky by one spot. He also only missed 4 players that were not within the draft slot of 21-32

Pronman was the lone ranger picking the top 5 picks (not in order). Pronman also only missed on two picks outside 11-20 range.


I posted this at the end of the draft last years draft:

Some interesting statistical data regarding the draft based on draft ranking vs draft position.
1. forwards 5'10" and under watched (14) all but Bedard fell 3 spots are more than their average ranking after June (38 total). 62.5% of the players watched fell 12 spots or more. 35.7% fell 48 spots or more.
2. players 5'10.25 to 5'11" watched (15) 67% fell 3% or more 40% fell 15 spots or more
3. All of the players watched (13) 6'2" or better watched aside from Matthew Wood (.29 drop from average ranking) ranked in the first two rounds were picked over their average ranking. Of the remaining players watched, 39% fell in the draft from their average ranking. All but one of the fallers (that being Stancl -.5) fell 12.9 points or more.
4. 73% of the Fins fell from their average ranking (11 watched)
5. No data shows Russians fell in general that I show (8 watched) 50%
6. USHL (11 watched) 73.7 fell from rankings
7. WHL (24 watched) 62.5% fell from rankings
8. Points per game had no statistical data either way high or low varying enough to make a conclusion
9. 77% of players watched (26) with a 4.0 or less skate tool as defined by EP hockey fell in the draft
10 68% of players watched (19) with a 6.5 or better skate tool as defined by EP hockey FELL in the draft
11. Low hockey sense 4.5 or less as defined by EP had no data either way, but of the 15 players averaging in the top 100 66% IMPROVED their draft position with 80% being 10 spots or more. (???)
12 High hockey sense 6.5 or better (17) as defined by EP 70% FELL from average ranking compared to when drafted
13. Low Physical tool 4.0 (15) or less as defined by EP 87% fell from their average ranking compared to when drafted.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Quality or quantity?

Would you package both our 2nds to move up from #10 to get the player you want?

i expect we will be higher than 10 going in, before any deals.

 

[Blanick]

Finally starting to look into this draft where I think we will pick anywhere between 7-16 as I just don't see us sneaking into the playoffs. I really want to see us target defense, I know best player available is the way to go but if you have two players ranked closely and one is offense and the other is defense I think we should take that right.

The absolute dream would be Dickinson but don't see us falling far enough for him to be within reach unless we move up via the lottery or possibly trade up. My next pick would be Buium who I actually rank above Levshunov. Lastly I want us to stay far far away from Silayev, I just have a bad feeling that too much of his stock is tied to size. I don't think he is a bad player but more of a late 1st, early 2nd.

I need to dive into some videos and research but these are my initial thoughts.

 

[Mike Liut]

i expect we will be higher than 10 going in, before any deals.

im afraid Binny steals too many games to get any higher than 10. Hope I’m wrong.

 

[PJJJP]

Well we are now #9 in the rankings. I can see a world where we get to the #6 spot as Minny is only 3 points behind us and have played 1 more game I can also see us being like 12th as well

 

[HighNote]

We are 5 points back from 14th in the league (DET) with a game in hand and we're 3 points ahead of 27th (MIN) with a game in hand. That's a gap of 14 spots I think we could realistically end up in by the end of the season. Anything beyond those points seems unlikely.

13th is EDM who are on an absolute heater (11 game winning streak) and they have 2 games in hand on us. Maybe if LA keeps stinking it up they could be passable, but I doubt it. They're 6 points ahead with a game in hand, but they've gone 1-5-4 in their last 10.

On the other end, 28th is CBJ who are 7 points back while we have 2 games in hand of them, so again, seems really unrealistic for them to catch us. I think we'll know for sure in a week or two if it becomes essentially impossible for them to catch us.

Obviously there's still half the season to play so it's not particularly surprising that the gap is 14 spots, but it is interesting how close the teams in that section of the standings are to each other at the moment. The difference between 11th place and 27th is only 9 points. At roughly this point last season, the gap between those places was 18 points.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

Finally starting to look into this draft where I think we will pick anywhere between 7-16 as I just don't see us sneaking into the playoffs. I really want to see us target defense, I know best player available is the way to go but if you have two players ranked closely and one is offense and the other is defense I think we should take that right.

The absolute dream would be Dickinson but don't see us falling far enough for him to be within reach unless we move up via the lottery or possibly trade up. My next pick would be Buium who I actually rank above Levshunov. Lastly I want us to stay far far away from Silayev, I just have a bad feeling that too much of his stock is tied to size. I don't think he is a bad player but more of a late 1st, early 2nd.

I need to dive into some videos and research but these are my initial thoughts.

Russian scout made it clear. If you liked Simashev, then you will really like Silayev. He would pick Silayev over Simashev. Don’t be surprised if another monster Pulkkinen moves into the mid to late first. Recently he has had his ice time increasing in Liiga and played well. Didn’t look bad at all at WJCs. I’m hoping he’s there in the 40s

 

[Stealth JD]

I’ve wanted Russian Pronger for a while, but Silayev is going #2 overall and the Blues would have to pay dearly to get that high. Don’t see it happening.

 

[Mike Liut]

We are 5 points back from 14th in the league (DET) with a game in hand and we're 3 points ahead of 27th (MIN) with a game in hand. That's a gap of 14 spots I think we could realistically end up in by the end of the season. Anything beyond those points seems unlikely.

13th is EDM who are on an absolute heater (11 game winning streak) and they have 2 games in hand on us. Maybe if LA keeps stinking it up they could be passable, but I doubt it. They're 6 points ahead with a game in hand, but they've gone 1-5-4 in their last 10.

On the other end, 28th is CBJ who are 7 points back while we have 2 games in hand of them, so again, seems really unrealistic for them to catch us. I think we'll know for sure in a week or two if it becomes essentially impossible for them to catch us.

Obviously there's still half the season to play so it's not particularly surprising that the gap is 14 spots, but it is interesting how close the teams in that section of the standings are to each other at the moment. The difference between 11th place and 27th is only 9 points. At roughly this point last season, the gap between those places was 18 points.

the problem is, some of these teams are going to start selling off players and make it harder for us to jump them.

 

[BrokenFace]

Is this draft deep enough with d-men that we should hold onto our 2nds? I know 2nd rounders can't be counted on to make the NHL, but if we need to restock on defensemen in the pipeline, are there more intriguing defensemen going in the 2nd round this year than most? Defensemen take long to develop and are harder to project at an NHL level on draft day, so maybe grabbing 2 d-men in the 2nd is the way to go.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

Is this draft deep enough with d-men that we should hold onto our 2nds? I know 2nd rounders can't be counted on to make the NHL, but if we need to restock on defensemen in the pipeline, are there more intriguing defensemen going in the 2nd round this year than most? Defensemen take long to develop and are harder to project at an NHL level on draft day, so maybe grabbing 2 d-men in the 2nd is the way to go.

Depends on what they're used for. If it's part of a deal to move up in the 1st to get our guy, then it's worth it. The only thing I don't want to see is moving the 2nds for later picks.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I don't think the gap between the 3rd and 6th best defensemen in the draft is wide enough to Justify using our 2nds to move up. especially if we are a top 8-9 pick.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

Is this draft deep enough with d-men that we should hold onto our 2nds? I know 2nd rounders can't be counted on to make the NHL, but if we need to restock on defensemen in the pipeline, are there more intriguing defensemen going in the 2nd round this year than most? Defensemen take long to develop and are harder to project at an NHL level on draft day, so maybe grabbing 2 d-men in the 2nd is the way to go.

Good draft for it.

 

[Mike Liut]

I’d have a hard time passing on Cayden Lindstrom if he falls to us at 7 or 8

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Finally had time to compile my player notes on USHL top prospects game from earlier this week. I primarily focused on the D, so forwards only mentioned if they did something that stood out. Some general thoughts- the 2025 guys that were in the game (hagens and hensler) are both studs. Remember their names for next year. Fwiw, crowd is so small, other than friends and family of players, i wonder if there are more scouts in attendance than fans.

Let’s go over forwards first, since there are less comments on them. please note that i am listing them roughly by consensus ranking order, not by order i prefer them.

hagens looked great early. Took dumb penalty and was fairly quiet during stretches, but it’s clear he is a player. he is an early favorite to be top pick in '25 draft.

eiserman is obviously talented. I’ve heard phil kessel comparisons and that may not be far off on his upside. At one point he tried to beat 3 defenders at once; could learn that he has teammates. Overall, he just doesn’t do it for me. i expect he goes top 10, maybe top 5, but I don’t want him. If he is best player on board when we pick I want us to trade back.

connelly looks like top 20 pick every time i see him, including this game. maybe top 10 but feels more like 11-20 at this moment but could see him going higher if teams think he has learned and grown from his off ice mistakes (which on surface it seems he has).

bednarik was a disappointment. I was hoping for more from him, but only time I noticed him was when he took a really dumb with 73 seconds left.

boisvert looked fantastic. Seems to be consensus 1st rounder and I see why. Really stood out. I had more positive notes on him than the rest of forwards combined. And not just skill or offense. He made a nice play to break up scoring chance. Later he was hard on forecheck, then backchecks to break up play. boisvert was a real standout to me all game.interestingly he is from Quebec, plays for Muskegon in ushl, and will apparently be first quebecois to suit up for und next year. I’m not ready to rank guys yet, but as a 2-way center with size and skill, I could see him potentially cracking top 20. Really liked his game.

van vleet had a nice game. I wasn’t super familiar with him. he is center on ntdp, seems to skate and handle well for fairly big guy. scored goal on nice shot, walked laurila. Could be interesting option in late 2nd or 3rd.

none of the other forwards stood out to me, which isn't specifically an indictment of them but considering where our needs are it's probably a good sign that none of the rest are fits for us at least in first couple rounds.

Defensemen to follow.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

defensemen thoughts from ushl top prospect game:

hensler is among top d prospects for 2025 draft and it’s easy to see why. He looked like best d by far early (until emery settled in). hensler just has look about him, he always seems under control out there. his poise with puck and skating both stood out, his defense is a bit more up and down. hensler made great play then got caught flatfooted gets walked by eiserman. Later hensler did nice job battling and coming away with puck on pk. I would draft him with our first this year (he would be in top tier so I would take any of them anytime 2 or later) if he was eligible but he was born about a month too late.

hutson is younger brother of candian’s prospect. I don’t think he is as small as his brother, but he is still too small for my tastes. Admittedly I’d like him much more if I hadn’t watched torrey krug every game last few years, but I’m not spending premium pick on small d. he was most noticeable getting caught below offensive blue line leading to a goal scored the other way. I hope one of our divisional rivals drafts him.

emery struggled a bit early with puck skills, needed more calm, but still far better than skahan. But he kept getting better and better as game went on. showed strong defensive tools, skating and hands both look good. And then he settled in. made nice pass out of d zone, jumped up, and scored. another good breakout by emery. got stick on eiserman shot for 2nd time. made really good play to elude connelly on forecheck. nice step up in neutral zone, broke up play. kept getting better as game went along. shows nice feet to elude forward and get shot off. strong defensive play to break up rush, elude forechecker. he got sent off for boarding/crosschecking, but kinda semed like it was mostly just for being too strong for the guy he hit. Emery reminds me a bit of willander, who I loved in last year’s draft.someone described emery as kind of guy every contender desperately wants to find at trade deadline. I have him in 2nd tier at this point (Dickinson, silyaev, and levshunov are the only ones in first tier right now). We may be bad enough that he would be reach at our pick, but he sure would be nice fit next to lindstein.

skahan was probably biggest disappointment among d for me. He was really fighting puck all night. I know he is big and shows potential defensively, but there are basic puck skills a modern nhl defenseman needs and I just lack confidence he will develop them. He was a real adventure with the puck almost every time he had it. thinking I would rather let another team pick him (in 2nd?) and not us unless he slips to 4th or later.

kleber looks really raw, a big kid who was maybe a bit out of his league. But unlike some of the others who struggled, I think his issues are ones that tend to resolve. he made nice play to hold blue line, but later skates himself into trouble.he moves pretty good for big guy, long way away, but definitely see promise. Going to umd so will have time to marinate. A guy to keep an eye on. Curious to see how he looks in a few months at u18s. Big rhd who can move tend to be in demand and this guy seems worth a shot. I could see taking him with a late 2nd.

whipple had struggled when I had seen him previously, so my expectations for him in this game were not high. He was worse than I expected. Like he is not good. When he entered ntdp program he was maybe most hyped of the 2006 born d and I keep trying to see it and just don’t. epperson blew by him to set up goal. whipple turns it over for no real reason. My notes say “don't draft him,” and I stand by that. i should add that as game was winding down, whipple had a nice blocked shot, so his first good play i noticed by him. only took about 59:55. Another guy I hope someone else drafts, but I don’t care as long as it isn’t us.

groenewald has about a 3rd round rating, but I can’t figure out why. Good size but his ushl numbers are not encouraging. Although if I only looked at his stats I would like him more than I do after watching him play. He looked overmatched all night, culminating when he almost tripped over his own stick

laurila doesn’t seem to have much offense. Made nice play on rush d, but i don't buy he is 6'. I don’t see him as someone of interest either.

felicio made several nice plays. small though. got beat too. like his stick but not someone i would draft given our experience with small d. maybe you hope he grows and is playable? He is going to Denver u, which is a top program so they obviously think there is something there. Certainly wasn’t worst d here.

Net net is that among draft eligible d, emery was by far most appealing and kleber looks like intriguing 2nd or 3rd round prospect.

 

[kimzey59]

Is this draft deep enough with d-men that we should hold onto our 2nds? I know 2nd rounders can't be counted on to make the NHL, but if we need to restock on defensemen in the pipeline, are there more intriguing defensemen going in the 2nd round this year than most? Defensemen take long to develop and are harder to project at an NHL level on draft day, so maybe grabbing 2 d-men in the 2nd is the way to go.

1- Short answer; Yes, this Draft is extremely deep in D men well into the 2nd/3rd round(probably even see a few good ones drop into the 4th round).

2- Having said that; personally, I'd be extremely hesitant to use our top 3 picks on D men. I know it's a current need, but IMO it's reckless to isolate on one position like that. You never know what you're going to need three years down the road. Anything can happen(look at the Cardinals with Oscar Tavares).

More than that, there are some really good forwards projected in the 2nd this year. Zetterberg(tiny but highly skilled), Zether(good size, extremely high IQ), Basha(Kyrou Jr.), Letourneau(big boy with really interesting skill package), Battaglia(PF type with a really heavy shot) to name a few.