2024-25 Roster…too soon?

[Wally1112pac]

Weegar Carlsson and Burns are all better offensively, and about equal defensively.

Doughty is better all around, and McAvoy is the best of the bunch here.

Carlsson and Burns were better. Not so much anymore.

Weeger never was.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Carlsson and Burns were better. Not so much anymore.

Weeger never was.

Carlsson is better offensively, by quite a bit, and is still better defensively.
Burns is slightly better offensively, but much better in his own zone than Jones is.

Weegar scored more goals this year than Seth Jones has the last 2 years lol, not to mention, still better defensively.

Find me any stat you can that tells me Jones is better than these guys, advanced stat, or any typical stat, since you are so convinced.

Jones is so overrated by people, he has had 1, maybe 2 really good seasons in his entire career, people still think he is this great Dman Nashville drafted 4th overall.

 

[statswatcher]

Find me any stat you can that tells me Jones is better than these guys, advanced stat, or any typical stat, since you are so convinced.

there is no such stat. the idea that jones is a top dman in the league is pure speculation based on eyetests, draft pedigree, the fact that he plays for a bad team, and baldfaced cope rather than silly things like evidence or results.

the funniest bit of cope is when people do this gambit where they say he’s not worth his contract (because they have to because it’s obvious) and try to spin it as an argument that he’s good actually. like the argument is seriously supposed to be “this guy is overpaid, and that means people saying he’s not as good as i think he is are underrating him!” it’s incredibly silly.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

You replied to my post 1st...

What?

 

[ClydeLee]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1634947365437308929

These stats certainly do exist and Jones is in the opposite bank, he's only had 2 real bad seasons. The last in Columbus and 1st here. I remember also thinking he skates sideways a ton his first Chicago season. Idk if he corrected that or was hurt then, but it always a oddity.

The one thing some guys like jfresh stats have him down so low defensively on was his stopping rushes enting the blue line. Which he improved. But also, isn't all that defense is. When those stat guys show mictostats sometimes 1 thing overtakes the whole stat

 

[Hawkaholic]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1634947365437308929

These stats certainly do exist and Jones is in the opposite bank, he's only had 2 real bad seasons. The last in Columbus and 1st here. I remember also thinking he skates sideways a ton his first Chicago season. Idk if he corrected that or was hurt then, but it always a oddity.

The one thing some guys like jfresh stats have him down so low defensively on was his stopping rushes enting the blue line. Which he improved. But also, isn't all that defense is. When those stat guys show mictostats sometimes 1 thing overtakes the whole stat

You realize those are from last year, right? And isn't this the same guy who used these same stats to say that Nick Bonino was better than Patrick Kane? lol

 

[ClydeLee]

You realize those are from last year, right? And isn't this the same guy who used these same stats to say that Nick Bonino was better than Patrick Kane? lol

That was evolving hockey who is a weirdo still was in disbelief Edmonton beat Dallas last night and some other games.

Most stats people who were solid admit they get why Kane doesn't have great models. It's the same thing many people here or in the building were mad at Kane for... he doesn't shoot. When stats are built on shots, a player who holds holds holds and doesn't shoot when he can is going to have bad stats. Most model guys admit they don't have numbers or data to account for his passes to wide open teammates with dmen out of position and goalies out of position. They register as a regular chance instead of a high danger chance too often

 

[Hawkaholic]

That was evolving hockey who is a weirdo still was in disbelief Edmonton beat Dallas last night and some other games

Ahh, still, people have to dive and cherry pick a bunch of stats to try and prove Seth Jones worth. He's overrated, and not even close to a top 5 RHD.

 

[statswatcher]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1634947365437308929

i don't trust these twitter infographics stat mills. there's no way to audit the math they're using to spit out these numbers, and the only way to go and look at contextual things like who the model ranks where as compared with other models, raw data from natural stat trick, etc., is to pay $5 for a month of access to a database curated by people who think seth jones is a 90th percentile nhl offensive defenseman.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1797659208202203539

Hope the Hawks are not the team stupid enough to give up assets + bad contract for him

 

[BHawk21]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1797659208202203539

Hope the Hawks are not the team stupid enough to give up assets + bad contract for him

I hope they are smart enough to get Bedard some help.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

I hope they are smart enough to get Bedard some help.

Giving up a 1st+ to acquire a 40-50 pt player and then handing him an 8 x $8M+ deal is not smart at all

Necas and his contract demands and asset costs can f*** off

 

[BHawk21]

Giving up a 1st+ to a 40-50 pt player and then handing him an 8 x $8M+ deal is not smart at all

Necas and his contract demands and asset costs can f*** off

No reason to have this discussion if your calling him a 40pt player.

 

[Hawkaholic]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1797659208202203539

Hope the Hawks are not the team stupid enough to give up assets + bad contract for him

Agreed. Not only not worth the contract he will get, but also not worth the assets to acquire him.

No reason to have this discussion if your calling him a 40pt player.

Ya, 50-60 is more like it.

 

[BHawk21]

He's averaging 62 pts and 26 goals in the last 2 seasons while playing on the 2nd PP and on the 2nd line with no 2nd line Center.

Bedard and Necas can flourish playing together. Necas at a PPG and Bedard over that.

7-8 is what these players cost now. Hagel just got 6.5 same age same production a year later. Troy Terry got 7per year.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

I like how you take his career year and season he regressed badly to then even out to a 60pt plyaer

Why not go back 3 years then if you want sample size?

21-22 = 78 GP with 14 goals + 26 assists for 40 pts and a +5
22-23 = 82 GP with 28 goals + 43 assists for 71 pts and a +5
23-24 = 77 GP with 24 goals + 29 assists for 53 pts and a -9

Me thinks you don't want that because it shows how

1) How his 22-23 season looks like fluke
2) He regressed badly this year

Your argument is essentially that Necas needs perfect C, full PP1 time and other things to be more than a 40-50 pt guy

Further strengthening my argument/case that he isn't worth the high cost to acquire him and the awful contract he wants

Any team that gives up high quality assets in trade + a 8 yr/$64M+ deal to Necas is going to regret it

And if Necas is so amazing why are Canes not keeping him? Why are they not moving heaven and earth to keep such a player?

 

[kmwtrucks]

He's averaging 62 pts and 26 goals in the last 2 seasons while playing on the 2nd PP and on the 2nd line with no 2nd line Center.

Bedard and Necas can flourish playing together.

this would be similar to trading for Seth which has for the most part been a complete disaster. you do not trade valuable assets when you scored 52 points. When we hit 80 is when you start trading.

 

[BHawk21]

I like how you take his career year and season he regressed badly to then even out to a 60pt plyaer

Why not go back 3 years then if you want sample size?

21-22 = 78 GP with 14 goals + 26 assists for 40 pts and a +5
22-23 = 82 GP with 28 goals + 43 assists for 71 pts and a +5
23-24 = 77 GP with 24 goals + 29 assists for 53 pts and a -9

Me thinks you don't want that because it shows how

1) How his 22-23 season looks like fluke
2) He regressed badly this year

Your argument is essentially that Necas needs perfect C, full PP1 time and other things to be more than a 40-50 pt guy

Further strengthening my argument/case that he isn't worth the high cost to acquire him and the awful contract he wants

You are going to the outlier year then lol go the year before and see what happens. He had 41 points in 53 games as a 21/22 year old.

No matter how many times you say hes a 40 point player doesnt make it true.

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

You are going to the outlier year then lol go the year before and see what happens. He had 41 points in 53 games as a 21/22 year old.

No matter how many times you say hes a 40 point player doesnt make it true.

No matter how much you spin it there is no justifying Hawks potentially trading a haul for Necas and then gifting him an absurd 8 x $8M+ deal he wants!

Let another franchise make that mistake for a meh 2nd liner who wants to be paid like a top line player

Oh and his father sounds like a headache to deal with and Necas wants to play C not wing so will try to force that issue

 

[BHawk21]

No matter how much you spin it there is no justifying Hawks potentially trading a haul for Necas and then gifting him an absurd 8 x $8M+ deal he wants!

Let another franchise make that mistake for a meh 2nd liner who wants to be paid like a top line player

Oh and his father sounds like a headache to deal with and Necas wants to play C not wing so will try to force that issue

I dont know what that trade would be so I would judge it based on that.

What would you pay Necas if he was a free agent?

Every comp has him making around 7 or 8.

 

[Hawkaholic]

I dont know what that trade would be so I would judge it based on that.

What would you pay Necas if he was a free agent?

Every comp has him making around 7 or 8.

Maybe 6mil? He doesn't bring much. He isn't great defensively, he isn't physical, he isn't a great goal scorer or a great playmaker. He's a secondary player that needs someone on his line to be the driver.

No interest in him unless he was a UFA that came cheap.

 

[BHawk21]

Maybe 6mil? He doesn't bring much. He isn't great defensively, he isn't physical, he isn't a great goal scorer or a great playmaker. He's a secondary player that needs someone on his line to be the driver.

No interest in him unless he was a UFA that came cheap.

Yea that doesnt seem realistic to me if you think hes only worth that.

I disagree. I think hes going to be a 75 point guy when he gets to a team that wants to utilize him on the top line and put him on the power play. Hes coming into his prime right now. Carolina fans say he was one if if not the best Cane during this playoffs.

I think hes a perfect guy to come in and fill the talent hole on the first line and then possibly if every thing goes very right (Demidov?) hes secondary scoring on a team that's competing for a cup

Marchessault was that 60-70 point guy at 25. Nugent Hopkins was that 60 point guy. Carter Verhaeghe had 55 points at 25. Lehkonen 60-70 point guy. Palat on Tampa.

 

[TheFridge]

Necas is most certainly not an ideal target for the Hawks at this stage of the rebuild. He's too old. You don't give up those assets for a player whose best years with this team would be the next 3-4 years -- and the Hawks are going to be mostly bad through the next 3-4 years. It's a waste.

Yes, Bedard needs help. Sign some UFAs to help bridge the gap to some of the youth that will be coming up through the next 2-4 years. Make some trades for decent vets on expensive deals that teams are looking to push out, but can still contribute here. Those are the kind of things you do in a rebuild.

Then, maybe in 2026, as you start to get a better idea of what some of these young players are, then you start trying to be aggressive and using some assets to acquire some better talent. When you're in playoff contention.

 

[Taze em]

Kakko is an example of an ideal candidate for the Hawks. Find Versteeg and Sharp.

 

[TheFridge]

Kakko is an example of an ideal candidate for the Hawks. Find Versteeg and Sharp.

They didn't give up anything for Versteeg or Sharp. If you can take a flyer on Kakko for Ryder Rolston and a 3rd round pick, go for it.