Blue Jays Discussion: 2024-25 Off-season: The free agent watch begins (and sometimes old baseball radio broadcasts)

[Blitzkrug]

I actually hate the Gimenez trade because it looks like the exact type a profile Atkins salivates over even if they gave up little to no value in it.

Elite defense? Absolutely. Legit gold glove caliber 2B. No one is going to argue that.

His bat? Ass. Had a great 2022 that everyone and their grandma was saying was a fluke because of how lucky he was getting. Sure enough, he hasn't done squat since.

Absolute waste of payroll rn given what the team needs are imo

 

[DackellDuck]

It isn't 24 per year btw. It is a bad contract, you don't need to try to make it worse then it is lol

Incredible to take that on.

 

[phillipmike]

The deal is growing on me knowing Horwitz is the only piece going back, is 27, and we got a reliever with control. It makes a lot more sense if the Jays add a legit bat, preferably 2.

We kept other middle infield pieces like Wagner, Orelvis, Jimenez, Schneider, Barget etc that can be used in trade.

And the kicker is Giménez is a very very good defender at SS. Perhaps a back plan for Bo if he doesn’t re-sign.

Not to mention when he is making $23M, Springer, Gausman and Bassett (after this season) will be off the books. Will only have Berrios on if he doesn’t opt out.

Again, only makes sense if you are brining in at least 1 legit bat, preferably 2. Wonder if we can trade Bassitt for Bellinger, sign Teo/Santander and sign a starter. Burnes would be great but might cost too much.

 

[Ale Brew]

Starting to look like Ross was asleep at the wheel again...

Unless he ducked out once they started adding a 7th and 8th year. Lots of media types have been saying they think we land Burnes for a couple days now (Rosenthal, Feinsand, and Robert Murray).

If we can add Burnes and a big bat like Santander, I think our heavy lifting will be done. Would be nice to add another high leverage reliever and maybe a bench piece that mashes lefties, but hard to imagine them spending this much.

 

[Eyedea]

Sure, and you can acquire good defense but pitiful offense without spending $24M per year.

The trade is one thing. The allocation of payroll to Gimenez? Dumb, dumb, dumb.

Aside from catchers, Swanson, and Lindor, there aren’t any other players better defensively than Gimenez over the last 3 years.

And defence still gets paid (Ke’Bryan Hayes).

 

[TheBeastCoast]

View attachment 943087

Yes so not 24 million a year lol

 

[Kurtz]

I think the disagreement is with your point about WAR over inflating the value of defense. You aren't wrong about it being the least expensive area to address but that doesn't lessen it's value to winning.

The Blue Jays won the team gold glove award last year, so I have some basis for my scepticism.

I'll give you one example of why I belive it's overvalued in WAR calculations. I'll use bWar for the comparison:

According to Baseball Reference, Vlad, over his career, averages 4.3 WAR/162 games. His career OPS is .863.

Gimenez averages 5.2 WAR/162 games with a career OPS of .715

What conclusion can you draw from that example other than that the formula is overrating the value of defense?

 

[Dr.Funk]

Best defensive 2B in baseball and a decent relief option with control for a positionless platoon player. I make that trade all day everyday.

 

[cyris]

View attachment 943087

Incredible to take that on.

It is 24m in real dollars yes. I do believe for the luxury tax purposes they take the average which is lower because of the 10 and 15m seasons.
Either way a terrible contract for a d first 2B that can’t hit

 

[Ale Brew]

The deal is growing on me knowing Horwitz is the only piece going back, is 27, and we got a reliever with control. It makes a lot more sense if the Jays add a legit bat, preferably 2.

We kept other middle infield pieces like Wagner, Orelvis, Jimenez, Schneider, Barget etc that can be used in trade.

And the kicker is Giménez is a very very good defender at SS. Perhaps a back plan for Bo if he doesn’t re-sign.

Not to mention when he is making $23M, Springer, Gausman and Bassett (after this season) will be off the books. Will only have Berrios on if he doesn’t opt out.

Again, only makes sense if you are brining in at least 1 legit bat, preferably 2. Wonder if we can trade Bassitt for Bellinger, sign Teo/Santander and sign a starter. Burnes would be great but might cost too much.

Also, his contact only counts as $15M against the tax threshold, so it’s less prohibitive.

 

[Jozay]

This dude making 23.5 mill in 2027 is one hell of a parting gift from Atkins

 

[Canada4Gold]

If someone told you this morning that the Jays added about 11 million in 2025 payroll to turn a hitter with a 127 wRC+ in 2024 into a hitter with a 83 wRC+ in 2024 and a pen arm with -0.7 fWAR in 2024 would you have believed them?

 

[Blitzkrug]

Unless he ducked out once they started adding a 7th and 8th year. Lots of media types have been saying they think we land Burnes for a couple days now (Rosenthal, Feinsand, and Robert Murray).

If we can add Burnes and a big bat like Santander, I think our heavy lifting will be done. Would be nice to add another high leverage reliever and maybe a bench piece that mashes lefties, but hard to imagine them spending this much.

I agree but that Gimenez trade just reeks of the type of move he'd make and then go "see? we added things!" as a lame attempt to cover up the fact they did nothing to actually help the team going forward.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

The Blue Jays won the team gold glove award last year, so I have some basis for my scepticism.

I'll give you one example of why I belive it's overvalued in WAR calculations. I'll use bWar for the comparison:

According to Baseball Reference, Vlad, over his career, averages 4.3 WAR/162 games. His career OPS is .863.

Gimenez averages 5.2 WAR/162 games with a career OPS of .715

What conclusion can you draw from that example other than that the formula is overrating the value of defense?

I mean Jimenez had one wild outlier of a year where he was a 6+ win player that skews those numbers a little bit...on top of a couple of disappointing seasons offensively for Vlad as a 1B that won't bring any additional value defensively it really isn't that shocking/odd to see those numbers. As for the Jays winning the team gold glove, the Jays were a great defensive team....they were bad because of their offense and bullpen. It isn't an either or situation, you need to play great defense and score runs. The roster construction is absolutely a concern though, we need to add offense in a bad way.

 

[cyris]

If someone told you this morning that the Jays added about 11 million in 2025 payroll to turn a hitter with a 127 wRC+ in 2024 into a hitter with a 83 wRC+ in 2024 and a pen arm with -0.7 fWAR in 2024 would you have believed them?

Yes I would have. Shatkins are terrible.

 

[Blitzkrug]

If someone told you this morning that the Jays added about 11 million in 2025 payroll to turn a hitter with a 127 wRC+ in 2024 into a hitter with a 83 wRC+ in 2024 and a pen arm with -0.7 fWAR in 2024 would you have believed them?

Horowitz's numbers are a bit skewed because as already pointed out he was and likely will be a platoon guy going forward, but make no mistake i'm still of the mindset this deal sucks.

I'm not expecting them to add f***in Prime Ryne Sandberg or anything but for f***s sakes enough with the high glove/low bat value players. One Varsho is fine, but you can't have multiple of him if you expect to score runs once and a while.

 

[Canada4Gold]

2024 4th rounder Nick Mitchell going to Cleveland too. Nothing much but he was kind of interesting after his start to his pro career

 

[Ale Brew]

I agree but that Gimenez trade just reeks of the type of move he'd make and then go "see? we added things!" as a lame attempt to cover up the fact they did nothing to actually help the team going forward.

Really hope you’re wrong about that.

I think they HAVE to make at least a couple of significant moves this offseason. They spendthrift $300M+ on those renovations and the lousy offseason and subsequent season last year put a real damper on the momentum the momentum they were building. Rogers needs to generate excitement coming into this season to maximize the investment they already made.

 

[Kurtz]

I mean Jimenez had one wild outlier of a year where he was a 6+ win player that skews those numbers a little bit...on top of a couple of disappointing seasons offensively for Vlad as a 1B that won't bring any additional value defensively it really isn't that shocking/odd to see those numbers. As for the Jays winning the team gold glove, the Jays were a great defensive team....they were bad because of their offense and bullpen. It isn't an either or situation, you need to play great defense and score runs. The roster construction is absolutely a concern though, we need to add offense in a bad way.

Well, I've used both guys' entire careers so as to get a decent sample size and reduce the impact of outliers, and the stat is telling us that Gimenez has been an entire 1 bWAR/162 games better player than Vlad.

Would you concede, on the basis of that example (and I can produce others) that maybe the formula is not adequately expressing true player value due to poor defense weighting (not to mention its questionable ability to measure defensve in the first place).

 

[tmlfan98]

Good job guys. I am no longer upset about dropping 3 spots in the draft lottery.

Jays losing 63.2 BTV surplus value in this trade is absolutely nuts. Gigantic overpay by Shatkins here.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Discoverer]

The Blue Jays won the team gold glove award last year, so I have some basis for my scepticism.

I'll give you one example of why I belive it's overvalued in WAR calculations. I'll use bWar for the comparison:

According to Baseball Reference, Vlad, over his career, averages 4.3 WAR/162 games. His career OPS is .863.

Gimenez averages 5.2 WAR/162 games with a career OPS of .715

What conclusion can you draw from that example other than that the formula is overrating the value of defense?

I mean... you could draw the conclusion that Gimenez is actually a very good, underrated player? That slugging 1B aren't that hard to find? That your preconceptions about player types and values might be wrong? That Vladdy has provided significant negative value in the field and on the bases?

There are lots of conclusions you could draw, so I don't see why "These stats don't support the way I feel about the player so they must be wrong" would have to be the answer.

 

[Blitzkrug]

Really hope you’re wrong about that.

I think they HAVE to make at least a couple of significant moves this offseason. They spendthrift $300M+ on those renovations and the lousy offseason and subsequent season last year put a real damper on the momentum the momentum they were building. Rogers needs to generate excitement coming into this season to maximize the investment they already made.

You would think and hope so right? But corpos gonna corpo.

Like shit i would have been happy with even a coupler of smaller but still need addressing moves like adding say, a couple guys like Joc Pederson and Michael Conforto (he's gone now, but i'm just using him as an example) along with another signing of an arm. Not the sexist moves, but it would at least be an acknowledgement the lineup needs help.

Gimenez might be just "a" move, or it might be the move. Either way, i don't like it.

 

[Eyedea]

Well, I've used both guys' entire careers so as to get a decent sample size and reduce the impact of outliers, and the stat is telling us that Gimenez has been an entire 1 bWAR/162 games better player than Vlad.

Would you concede, on the basis of that example (and I can produce others) that maybe the formula is not adequately expressing true player value due to poor defense weighting (not to mention its questionable ability to measure defensve in the first place).

From a positional adjustment standpoint, do you think 1Bs and DHs should be closer to these premium positions? Because that entire 1 war/162 is essentially the adjustment and doesn't take anything else into account (Gimenez's bat, Vladdy's defence and baserunning).

 

[Ale Brew]

The Blue Jays won the team gold glove award last year, so I have some basis for my scepticism.

I'll give you one example of why I belive it's overvalued in WAR calculations. I'll use bWar for the comparison:

According to Baseball Reference, Vlad, over his career, averages 4.3 WAR/162 games. His career OPS is .863.

Gimenez averages 5.2 WAR/162 games with a career OPS of .715

What conclusion can you draw from that example other than that the formula is overrating the value of defense?

Well, Cleveland does seem to win more than you’d expect, no?