Blue Jays Discussion: 2024-25 Off-season: The free agent watch begins (and sometimes old baseball radio broadcasts)

[Kurtz]

I mean... you could draw the conclusion that Gimenez is actually a very good, underrated player? That slugging 1B aren't that hard to find? That your preconceptions about player types and values might be wrong? That Vladdy has provided significant negative value in the field and on the bases?

There are lots of conclusions you could draw, so I don't see why "These stats don't support the way I feel about the player so they must be wrong" would have to be the answer.

Let me get this straight. You see absolutely no issue with a stat that tells you that Gimenez is a more valuable player than Vlad?

 

[habamillions]

I dont like making trades with cleveland and tampa bay. They always seem to get the better player more often then not

 

[Blitzkrug]

Well, Cleveland does seem to win more than you’d expect, no?

Yes, but usually on the strength of being able to pull great SP and elite relievers from thin air.

Their lineup isn't exactly a murderer's row. J-Ram is elite, Josh Naylor had a great year but outside of that, pretty meh. Kwan is elite contact guy but even then his WAR value is split between offense and defense.

 

[Kurtz]

From a positional adjustment standpoint, do you think 1Bs and DHs should be closer to these premium positions? Because that entire 1 war/162 is essentially the adjustment and doesn't take anything else into account (Gimenez's bat, Vladdy's defence and baserunning).

I'll ask you the same bottom-line question I asked Discoverer. Do you think that Gimenez has the same or higher value to a club than Vlad does?

 

[Ale Brew]

Yes, but usually on the strength of being able to pull great SP and elite relievers from thin air.

Their lineup isn't exactly a murderer's row. J-Ram is elite, Josh Naylor had a great year but outside of that, pretty meh. Kwan is elite contact guy but even then his WAR value is split between offense and defense.

Defense does help with those pitching results, as does the park factor.

I want a big bat, or multiple as much as anyone, just think defense matters too.

 

[HuGort]

The deal is growing on me knowing Horwitz is the only piece going back, is 27, and we got a reliever with control. It makes a lot more sense if the Jays add a legit bat, preferably 2.

We kept other middle infield pieces like Wagner, Orelvis, Jimenez, Schneider, Barget etc that can be used in trade.

And the kicker is Giménez is a very very good defender at SS. Perhaps a back plan for Bo if he doesn’t re-sign.

Not to mention when he is making $23M, Springer, Gausman and Bassett (after this season) will be off the books. Will only have Berrios on if he doesn’t opt out.

Again, only makes sense if you are brining in at least 1 legit bat, preferably 2. Wonder if we can trade Bassitt for Bellinger, sign Teo/Santander and sign a starter. Burnes would be great but might cost too much.

I don't know baseball as well as most. Hockey my main sport. But hope this is good deal.

Also hoping Vlad signs but imagine he will test the market after seeing last two contracts. He's the big name next year.

 

[Brown Dog]

Yay! More defense! These guys are clueless.

 

[Discoverer]

Let me get this straight. You see absolutely no issue with a stat that tells you that Gimenez is a more valuable player than Vlad?

I don't think that at all. I think you can argue Gimenez has been more valuable in their careers so far, but Vlad hasn't always been the player he was last year. Vlad is CLEARLY better right now.

Even leaving aside the positional adjustment part, Gimenez has nearly as many outputs/assists as he has plate appearances in his career. Shouldn't his defense be worth roughly the same as offense in that case?

 

[Eyedea]

I'll ask you the same bottom-line question I asked Discoverer. Do you think that Gimenez has the same or higher value to a club than Vlad does?

I love Vladdy and am one of his biggest supporters, but if he's playing more like 2022/2023 than 2021/2024, then yes, Gimenez would end up being a more valuable player for the organization.

And that's not to say that 2022 was bad, but it wasn't great offensively and that's sort of what you require from a 1B/DH, especially one that isn't good defensively. 2024 Vladdy vs 2024 Gimenez is not really close.

 

[Blitzkrug]

I don't know baseball as well as most. Hockey my main sport. But hope this is good deal.

Also hoping Vlad signs but imagine he will test the market after seeing last two contracts. He's the big name next year.

From a personal/financial standpoint? He'd be a fool not to. Just his age alone is going to net him him an extra 150-200 million dollars.

I don't think he'll get Soto money but i could easy see 400 to 500, especially if he's truly back after a bounceback 2024.

 

[canucksfan]

in isolation the trade is fine. However the team needs offense and they got worse offensively

 

[rojac]

Am I he only one who thinks "Chicks dig the long ball"/when reading this thread?

 

[Lightsol]

I have never seen a market this level of obsessed with a former executive that hasn’t been here going on a decade now. It is just really weird. We can be critical of the current regime without forcing AA into the discussion forever.

The hilarious thing is, up until the last half-season of his run, the AA Toronto Blue Jays looked a lot like this one, except no defense and all offense instead of all defense and no offense.

 

[DackellDuck]

Am I he only one who thinks "Chicks dig the long ball"/when reading this thread?

I think it’s more that people are sick of watching a team that’s putrid offensively and have no interest in seeing another Daulton Varsho walk up to the plate four times a game, even if he makes some great defensive plays.

But hey, we finished last in the division with a “defense first” philosophy. Let’s double down on it!

 

[Blitzkrug]

Another name off the board.

 

[Discoverer]

in isolation the trade is fine. However the team needs offense and they got worse offensively

Yeah, they dealt from an area of weakness to improve an area of strength, which is certainly a choice.

Who knows, maybe not having to find space for Horwitz means they'll feel more comfortable adding one of the 1B/DH or something. I'm always fine holding off judgement until we see how things play out, but that didn't work out so well last year.

 

[Kurtz]

I don't think that at all. I think you can argue Gimenez has been more valuable in their careers so far, but Vlad hasn't always been the player he was last year. Vlad is CLEARLY better right now.

Even leaving aside the positional adjustment part, Gimenez has nearly as many outputs/assists as he has plate appearances in his career. Shouldn't his defense be worth roughly the same as offense in that case?

The thing is, what you're proposing here totally defies baseball orthodoxy. It suggests that prime Kiermaier is just as valuable as prime Soto. That exchanging Teo and Gurriel for Kiermaier and Varsho was a brilliant decision. That we made a monumental error in not bringing back Chapman. And that we shouldn't even entertain the idea of signing Vlad long term and should sell off Bo for anything we can get.

I just can't agree with this position. Defense is not nearly as valuable as offense in baseball; the entire baseball world (except Atkins) cannot be wrong on this.

 

[PanniniClaus]

I'll have to come back to digest this trade. Busy watching some riveting hockey.

 

[aingefan]

I’m really thinking this signals that Bo is on the move.
Especially if Gimenez can handle SS.
Gotta think of this one as a head scratcher if it’s not an early domino.
So many bodies that are ready enough up the middle.

Or maybe the new hitting coach is the second coming?

 

[Puckstuff]

The thing is, what you're proposing here totally defies baseball orthodoxy. It suggests that prime Kiermaier is just as valuable as prime Soto. That exchanging Teo and Gurriel for Kiermaier and Varsho was a brilliant decision. That we made a monumental error in not bringing back Chapman. And that we shouldn't even entertain the idea of signing Vlad long term and should sell off Bo for anything we can get.

I just can't agree with this position. Defense is not nearly as valuable as offense in baseball; the entire baseball world (except Atkins) cannot be wrong on this.

Exploiting the surplus value of trading for or signing defensive players was a brilliant move a decade ago, when they were significantly undervalued. Teams like Tampa Bay could pick up cheap, high-value defensive position players for peanuts. But in the case of the Jays, we're paying a premium for good defensive players—either in salary (e.g., Gimenez making $23.6 million in 2027) or through prospect capital (e.g., giving up a top prospect in baseball for Varsho). Trading for these types of players made sense when there was a clear arbitrage, like how the Rays did it. But now, there’s no surplus value, and the Jays are overpaying for it. That’s the problem.

 

[Discoverer]

The thing is, what you're proposing here totally defies baseball orthodoxy. It suggests that prime Kiermaier is just as valuable as prime Soto. That exchanging Teo and Gurriel for Kiermaier and Varsho was a brilliant decision. That we made a monumental error in not bringing back Chapman. And that we shouldn't even entertain the idea of signing Vlad long term and should sell off Bo for anything we can get.

I just can't agree with this position. Defense is not nearly as valuable as offense in baseball; the entire baseball world (except Atkins) cannot be wrong on this.

I'm not gonna respond to the specifics, but... no. It doesn't actually suggest any of those things.

 

[ChuckNorris4Cup]

You haven't. Don't let the door hit you on the ass on the way out.

Haha, some just like to be in denial sometimes and wear the homer glasses too much, but good luck with that.

 

[Kurtz]

Well, Cleveland does seem to win more than you’d expect, no?

Cleveland won 92 games last year and 76 the year before. I have no idea what changes they made to alter their fortunes (stacked their bullpen?), but Gimenez played on both squads and was a more productive player in '23.

 

[shaner8989]

in isolation the trade is fine. However the team needs offense and they got worse offensively

Exactly. Our joke offense just got worse. Nice job idiots.

 

[Discoverer]

Exactly. Our joke offense just got worse. Nice job idiots.

Look, we all know today was the first time you ever heard of Andres Gimenez, so maybe just sit this one out.