HF Habs: 2023 World U18 Men's Hockey Championship: Finals Sunday, April 30 | Canada wins Bronze, 4-3 (OT) | USA wins Gold, 3-2 (OT), Sweden Silver

[SwiftyHab]

I doubt he slides like his brother did….GM’s know the family pedigree now, he’s gone by early 2nd round

Listed at 5’8. Maybe he’s got a doctors note too

 

[SOLR]

Leonard or Yager

I think Leonard and Yager are ahead of Benson.

 

[Seb]

How would you feel if the Habs don't take one of these guys? Who would you take if you couldn't take any of these... just for fun!

Bedard
Fantilli
Carlsson
Michkov
Benson
Smith
Reinbacher

Dvorsky

 

[MarkovsKnee]

My first viewing of Smith was at the last U18 a year ago and I recall it like it was yesterday, his weak frame and slow feet made me wonder what he was doing on that squad. I mean if you compare Smith last year to Eiserman or even Hagens this year, its not comparable, Then I watched some 5 nations games at the begin of the year and I thought he really took a big step foward in term of strength/skating, his tools stood out instantly, puckhandling, playmaking, I was wowed, thats probably when I said he could become a top line center down the road with more strengthening ect. Then took a break and barely watched prospects till late november or december, then watched some prospects here and there ramdomly including a few USNTDP games. I started to question Smith's game after watching them 2-3 in a row where I could pay more attention to details, then barely missed one of their games to end up with what I think is a clear picture of the big 4.

Most people watching that US squad will have difficulties to identify the strengths/weaknesses of each player since the team is loaded of talent and they can win most games on skills alone, what makes it tougher to assess all parts of their game individually. The reason why I wanted to watch them extensively...

If I recall correctly, I started to like Oliver Moore better than Smith pretty early, Ive had a crush for his tools and I had him pretty high in my ranking, we can go back in the draft threads, but Im pretty sure I was the only one to have him in my top 6 at one point. To make a long story short, the more you watch, the more you can assess these players properly with objectivity. With Moore, time learnt me that his offensive awarenesses were probably not top line material and as much as I like his tools and the player, you reach the point where if you want to rank those kids honestly with integrity and objectivity, it has to reflect in your ranking, the reason why I dropped him a bit.

With Smith, the talent level is really high, his offensive awareness and creativity are high end, but there are flaws in his game that bothers me alot, make me doubt about the player. I could repeat it again and over again, but if you guys arent worried at all and want to believe he is a future NHL star, so it be, we are allowed to have different opinions.

Im not really an advanced stats guy, I barely watch it, but EP put a video on Smith where his advanced stats arent very flattering, especially his in-zone passing rate and it fits with what I see, kid will make some savant passes where he looks like a genius, but will also turn it over often, thats where your creativity can become your worst enemy. His lack of puck protection skills will make him try lower % plays, when it works, great, when it doesnt though...

Yeah, I saw that same video. Benson has far higher success rate at slot passes than Smith, who was pretty poor at it, and overall Benson manages the puck better. As far as advanced stats go, Smith & Benson are neck & neck. From a pure advanced statistics point of view rankings are (these are a couple of months old, so it may have changed):

1. Bedard
2. Fantilli
3. Michkov
4. Carlsson
5. Smith
6. Benson

2 points seperate Smith & Benson.

Like you, I was not impressed with Smith at last year's u18, and was much higher on Moore & Leonard coming into the season, but Smith has made huge gains from a year ago. I like to think with time & training he'll continue to improve, and that he'll adapt his game as he progresses through higher levels. Some can (Marner). Some can't (Drouin).

It isn't that I'm not worried about his bust factor (or worse "Drouin" factor), I just think his upside is worth the risk. There's more risk in picking Smith than in picking Dvorsky, but like Slafkovsky, if Smith can become the best version of himself - that's one hell of a player, but also a really tall task with a lot of work ahead of them to become that.

 

[Schooner Guy]

I’m not sure I’d say Smiths floor is Zegras. I’d say Zegras would be middle result.

Yeah...Zegras is still just scratching the surface and should be a PPG guy any season now. I'd see Smith's floor more like a Kyle Turris. That might be generous as I see Smith as being high ceiling but low floor.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Will be interesting to see how Smith does the rest of the tournament. That game today felt like a breakout game. If he reverts back to his inconsistent self then I guess my opinion won’t change. But if he dominates the rest of the way… he’ll be moving up a tier for me and will make the big 4 of this draft a big 5- and probably be drafted ahead of Michkov in the top 4.

I have to remind myself that my biggest criticism of Smith was always his inconsistency so I can’t put too much stock in todays game. But todays game certainly demonstrated his considerable upside. As of today he looks like a Cooley/Zegras level prospect if not better.

 

[SOLR]

Yeah, I saw that same video. Benson has far higher success rate at slot passes than Smith, who was pretty poor at it, and overall Benson manages the puck better. As far as advanced stats go, Smith & Benson are neck & neck. From a pure advanced statistics point of view rankings are (these are a couple of months old, so it may have changed):

1. Bedard
2. Fantilli
3. Michkov
4. Carlsson
5. Smith
6. Benson

2 points seperate Smith & Benson.

Like you, I was not impressed with Smith at last year's u18, and was much higher on Moore & Leonard coming into the season, but Smith has made huge gains from a year ago. I like to think with time & training he'll continue to improve, and that he'll adapt his game as he progresses through higher levels. Some can (Marner). Some can't (Drouin).

It isn't that I'm not worried about his bust factor (or worse "Drouin" factor), I just think his upside is worth the risk. There's more risk in picking Smith than in picking Dvorsky, but like Slafkovsky, if Smith can become the best version of himself - that's one hell of a player, but also a really tall task with a lot of work ahead of them to become that.

Except Fantilli plays on an all-star team and won't be seen as one of this draft's top 5 players in 5 years.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Except Fantilli plays on an all-star team and won't be seen as one of this draft's top 5 players in 5 years.

pNHLe disagrees with you.

 

[Goldenhands]

Yeah, I saw that same video. Benson has far higher success rate at slot passes than Smith, who was pretty poor at it, and overall Benson manages the puck better. As far as advanced stats go, Smith & Benson are neck & neck. From a pure advanced statistics point of view rankings are (these are a couple of months old, so it may have changed):

1. Bedard
2. Fantilli
3. Michkov
4. Carlsson
5. Smith
6. Benson

2 points seperate Smith & Benson.

Like you, I was not impressed with Smith at last year's u18, and was much higher on Moore & Leonard coming into the season, but Smith has made huge gains from a year ago. I like to think with time & training he'll continue to improve, and that he'll adapt his game as he progresses through higher levels. Some can (Marner). Some can't (Drouin).

It isn't that I'm not worried about his bust factor (or worse "Drouin" factor), I just think his upside is worth the risk. There's more risk in picking Smith than in picking Dvorsky, but like Slafkovsky, if Smith can become the best version of himself - that's one hell of a player, but also a really tall task with a lot of work ahead of them to become that.

Thats probably when the real scouts bring even more elements to the discussion, I trust our scouting staff to take the best decision, if they pick Smith thats because they believe in his growing potential and that the risk is worth it. They will factor everything in the equation so if thats their pick, so it be and hope for the best.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Except Fantilli plays on an all-star team and won't be seen as one of this draft's top 5 players in 5 years.

Oof, team strength argument. Cringe.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Will be interesting to see how Smith does the rest of the tournament. That game today felt like a breakout game. If he reverts back to his inconsistent self then I guess my opinion won’t change. But if he dominates the rest of the way… he’ll be moving up a tier for me and will make the big 4 of this draft a big 5- and probably be drafted ahead of Michkov in the top 4.

I have to remind myself that my biggest criticism of Smith was always his inconsistency so I can’t put too much stock in todays game. But todays game certainly demonstrated his considerable upside. As of today he looks like a Cooley/Zegras level prospect if not better.

I think you have to take a prospect based on what they can do, not what they do on average. Every prospect has games where they look not so great. But what Will Smith just did against a strong opponent is very rare. You almost never see something like that.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Thats probably when the real scouts bring even more elements to the discussion, I trust our scouting staff to take the best decision, if they pick Smith thats because they believe in his growing potential and that the risk is worth it. They will factor everything in the equation so if thats their pick, so it be and hope for the best.

Our pick could very well be Reinbacher. I just don't have Dvorsky at 5-7. Think it's the big 3 then Michkov, Smith, Reinbacher. Leonard at 7.

Bedard
Fantilli/Carlsson
Michkov
Reinbacher/Smith
Leonard
Dvorsky/Benson/Yager

Are my groupings in top 10. After that it's a bloody free-for-all.

 

[Goldenhands]

Our pick could very well be Reinbacher. I just don't have Dvorsky at 5-7. Think it's the big 3 then Michkov, Smith, Reinbacher. Leonard at 7.

Bedard
Fantilli/Carlsson
Michkov
Reinbacher/Smith
Leonard
Dvorsky/Benson/Yager

Are my groupings in top 10. After that it's a bloody free-for-all.

I will wait after the tournament on Dvorsky. I defended him because he is on a trash team, but I havent been that mpressed so far.

 

[HuGort]

Imagine trying to justify Dvorsky > Smith

No different than Mesar>Kulich

 

[WeThreeKings]

Oof, team strength argument. Cringe.

Yeah the one benefitting from being on Fantillis line is Brindley.

 

[Jack Skellington]

The backhand drag move and the rush goal from Smith were super nice and pretty to watch but I never doubted he could do that kind of stuff. The play that I really liked was actually the pass to Minetian. He picked it up from Perrault on the offensive half-board, curled around and hit the trailer, with zero processing time, and without looking down at the puck once. It was under a second that the puck was off his stick. Kucherov has made a career out of passes like this and its the kind of play that can make a skilled player who might not have the best combo of strength/skating succesful at the NHL level.

 

[SOLR]

pNHLe disagrees with you.

I'm shocked a number disagrees with me.

Oof, team strength argument. Cringe.

It's not just a team strength argument if you read the statement... I'm just saying the team strength is hiding the weaknesses we saw in full display in others situations (WJC, U18).

 

[FrankMTL]

Our pick could very well be Reinbacher. I just don't have Dvorsky at 5-7. Think it's the big 3 then Michkov, Smith, Reinbacher. Leonard at 7.

Bedard
Fantilli/Carlsson
Michkov
Reinbacher/Smith
Leonard
Dvorsky/Benson/Yager

Are my groupings in top 10. After that it's a bloody free-for-all.

That's why that 17th pick could be so good. I mean obviously "Caufield" players don't fall from the sky, but in 2019 the depth pushed down some very good prospects lower than they should have gone. I remember most of us we're thinking we wouldn't have a chance at Caufield or Newhook and maybe an outside chance at Krebs, and finally all three were available.

There will be some very good prospects that will drop to that 15-19 range....maybe even prospects that some so called experts had in their Top 10.

 

[Doublechin]

Would really be a great turn of events if all of these debates end up being useless and a waste of time and we win the lotto by landing the first pick.

 

[Seb]

Would really be a great turn of events if all of these debates end up being useless and a waste of time and we win the lotto by landing the first pick.

Gotta prepare for all scenarios!

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

That's why that 17th pick could be so good. I mean obviously "Caufield" players don't fall from the sky, but in 2019 the depth pushed down some very good prospects lower than they should have gone. I remember most of us we're thinking we wouldn't have a chance at Caufield or Newhook and maybe an outside chance at Krebs, and finally all three were available.

There will be some very good prospects that will drop to that 15-19 range....maybe even prospects that some so called experts had in their Top 10.

For both the Caufield draft and the Guhle draft we benefited from picking towards the end of a very strong and deep 2nd tier and had a great player fall into our lap.

This year we could be at both ends of that spectrum where we’d be picking at the beginning and at the end of a very strong 2nd tier.

I’ve said it before, but if Smith goes ahead of us and we aren’t interested in Michkov, the guys we take with our pick and with Floridas pick could be of the same calibre.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Would really be a great turn of events if all of these debates end up being useless and a waste of time and we win the lotto by landing the first pick.

Or even the 2nd pick.

5th pick is gonna be scary as hell because it’ll likely come down to whether we can stomach the Russian factor or take someone with considerably less upside.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Only 2 games today, and neither is being televised.

Germany vs Slovakia, 12:30 pm
Latvia vs Norway, 2 pm

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Would really be a great turn of events if all of these debates end up being useless and a waste of time and we win the lotto by landing the first pick.

I'm not even allowing myself to think about that.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I'm not even allowing myself to think about that.

I ran the simulator once when our position was finalized.

We won 1st OA,

Not touching it again.