Blue Jays GDT: 2023 v13 | **WILDCARD SERIES GAME 2** Wed, Oct 4 | @ Min | 4:30pm ET/1:30pm PT | Berrios vs Gray

[stickty111]

A heathy Travis and Cecil even results in a Jays WS.

If I remember correctly, Travis got hurt the first game after the Tulo trade. Cecil was also very dominant and losing him really hurt our BP even if it was still fine. If there is one move during that year I still dislike, it's the Revere one. I still have an issue with it.
It's done but 2 moves I would have made.
Leave Tulo in the leadoff spot. I know his bat had pretty much declined when we got him, and yes he had 2-3 good moments in the playoffs in the 5th spot, but I rather him get more AB's then Revere.
This one is going to be strange, but I would have pitched Hutchinson over R.A in game 4 against the Royals. I know he might not even have been on the post season roster, but still I would have went with him.

 

[canucksfan]

If I remember correctly, Travis got hurt the first game after the Tulo trade. Cecil was also very dominant and losing him really hurt our BP even if it was still fine. If there is one move during that year I still dislike, it's the Revere one. I still have an issue with it.
It's done but 2 moves I would have made.
Leave Tulo in the leadoff spot. I know his bat had pretty much declined when we got him, and yes he had 2-3 good moments in the playoffs in the 5th spot, but I rather him get more AB's then Revere.
This one is going to be strange, but I would have pitched Hutchinson over R.A in game 4 against the Royals. I know he might not even have been on the post season roster, but still I would have went with him.

I always thought Revere was best suited for the ninth spot.

I just checked and I didn’t realize how bad Tulo’s bat was. He had a wRC of 88 with the Jays in 2015.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

That’s the thing, in 2015 the Jays were the best team but Cecil got injured, Royals were lucky, Goins made the mistake in game two, Dickey stunk in game 4. Jays down 3-1 and couldn’t complete the comeback. In 2016, despite Sanchez taking a big leap, Happ doing well and a very solid bullpen, the bats stunk. Their short window was closed quickly and a rebuild needed to start.

I've always believed that play lost the series for the Jays. 3-0 lead with 9 outs to go, great chance to get the desired split in KC

Literally first pitch of the 7th, bloop single because Goins bailed at the last second after calling for it. Then in classic Royals fashion, they hit a bunch of soft opposite field singles and cruised to a win.

 

[Dough72]

what is the point of these huge risky leads at 2b anyway? Unless you're trying to steal 3rd or mess with the pitcher you can just just wait for him to start his delivery and then jog out as close to third as you feel like

 

[phillipmike]

Something that doesn’t seem to be mentioned when evaluating Anthopolous in Toronto is Rogers wasn’t interested in spending a lot of money during the Beeston/AA era. AA brought it up every offseason and trade deadline that he had a strict budget to work with. That started to change after 2015 but by then it was Shapiro in charge. I’d have loved to have seen what AA could have done in Toronto with Shapiro’s budget, we’ve seen what he’s done in Atlanta.

Not necessarily. The Jays spending under Shapiro/Atkins has increased since Beeston/AA but they still rank around 10th in the league. The increase is to keep up with inflated contracts.

Toronto Blue Jays | Cot's Baseball Contracts

legacy.baseballprospectus.com

Jays Payroll Rank:

Beeston/AA:
2013: 8th
2014: 9th
2015: 10th

Shapiro/Atkins:
2016: 13th
2017: 11th
2018: 8th
…
2021: 13th
2022: 11th
2023: 7th

Nonetheless, an increase in payroll under AA would have been interesting but it likely would have materialized to nothing if Beeston was still here. Beeston was a big problem here during his 2nd tenure imo and he had to go simply because of his 5 year limit rule on player contracts.

Under Beeston, the Jays didn’t sign any player to a guaranteed 6 year deal or more ever. I believe their biggest contracts were Bautista’s 5 plus and an option in 2011, and Martin’s 5 year deal which happened in AA’s last year in 2014 for the 2015 season.

Since AA went to Atlanta he has signed 7 Players to 6 or more years:
-Acuna
-Albies
-Riley
-Olson
-Murphy
-Strider
-Harris

To me it clearly shows Beeston was a problem because the minute AA is in charge of another team he goes against the 5 year rule 7 times.

Beeston had to go which unfortunately meant AA left too. In hindsight, maybe Shapiro wasn’t the guy but neither was Beeston.

 

[mikeyz]

That's literally exactly how the conversation went.

You said that Belt was garbage, because he strikes out lots. You asked for an explanation of how he could lead the league in strikeouts and not be bad. I explained that his numbers were 36% better than league average, and gave Babe Ruth as an example to show that leading the league in strikeouts doesn't necessarily mean a player is bad.

Then you showcased the reading comprehension of a baby giraffe and started claiming that I was comparing Brandon Belt to Babe Ruth.

Because you did compare the 2. Your very first sentence in your response to me was posting that reference to Babe Ruth.

You literally proved my point by showing that! LMFAO.

 

[rboomercat90]

Not necessarily. The Jays spending under Shapiro/Atkins has increased since Beeston/AA but they still rank around 10th in the league. The increase is to keep up with inflated contracts.

Toronto Blue Jays | Cot's Baseball Contracts

legacy.baseballprospectus.com

Jays Payroll Rank:

Beeston/AA:
2013: 8th
2014: 9th
2015: 10th

Shapiro/Atkins:
2016: 13th
2017: 11th
2018: 8th
…
2021: 13th
2022: 11th
2023: 7th

Nonetheless, an increase in payroll under in AA would have been interesting but it likely would have materialized to nothing if Beeston was still here. Beeston was a big problem here imo and he had to go simply because of his 5 year limit rule on player contracts.

Under Beeston, the Jays didn’t sign any player to a guaranteed 6 year deal or more ever. I believe their biggest contracts were Bautista’s 5 plus and an option in 2011, and Martin’s 5 which happened in AA’s last year in 2014 for the 2015 season.

Since AA went to Atlanta he has signed 7
Players to 6 or more years:
-Acuna
-Albies
-Riley
-Olson
-Murphy
-Strider
-Harris

To me it clearly shows Beeston was a problem because the minute AA is in charge of another team he goes against the 5 year rule 7 times.

Beeston had to go which unfortunately meant AA left too. In hindsight, maybe Shapiro wasn’t the guy but neither was Beeston.

As someone who has followed this team since the 80’s it’s hard to look at Beeston in a negative light but you’re probably right.

 

[phillipmike]

As someone who has followed this team since the 80’s it’s hard to look at Beeston in a negative light but you’re probably right.

Beeston has done more good for the team in his first tenure but also has some positives in his 2nd tenure which includes hiring AA. The only negatives i can think of is his 5 year rule and he doesnt wear socks.

 

[Captain Crunch]

I doubt mattingly did much with the hitting but could be wrong there.

You can't call Vladdy a bust, but he has not been close to the player he was two years ago. I definitely don't see him as a leader. And is there any chance Bo will willingly switch to 2nd base? With the trades they made, they have gone from a top 5 offense to a middle of the pack (at best) offense, and one that cannot produce when they have runners in scoring position. It won't happen, but Shapiro and Atkins should be fired.

 

[Hellcat]

I have a hard time believing an old school guy like Mattingly is interested in taking a manager job where most of the managerial decisions are made by others.

It's kinda like that in most places, not to the extent is in the Toronto, end of the day, depends on his options. Boone might be gone in NY, wouldn't Mattingly be a great fit there? Say he has zero options and Atkins comes to him and asks do you want to be the Manager? Does Don say no? Not sure he does, maybe he agrees to manage but with the condition he has more autonomy than Schneider?

I really don't have to say anything more than this. Thank you both for making my point for me.

Which was what?

 

[Captain Crunch]

Don’t think Mattingly was involved in the hitting aspect, more so a game manager behind Schneider. That hitting coach was f***ing shit

Agreed, but is it more on the players, especially Vladdy, who kept swinging at pitches out of the strike zone or missing on very hittable pitches? This team, in my mind, is a mess right now. Too many holes on offense. And either Schneider is following orders from above, aka Shapiro and Atkins, or else he's not the right coach for this team. Some players should have been made to sit out some games this season for making boneheaded/careless mistakes, especially on the basepaths.

 

[stats1]

The good thing is the Jays have 57 million coming off the books this winter which would drop the payroll to 173 million. Lots of flexibility to make changes.

 

[Eyedea]

But AA added a shitload of talent to that team without touching those top prospects you'd mentioned, that's kinda the point. Why assume he couldn't have done that here a second time if given the autonomy?

Speaking out autonomy...that's part of the problem. Shapiro is the guy who controls the analytics department and they seem to have too firm of a grasp on this org.

On another baseball forum, a poster has a son who is a Harvard grad and interviewed for an analytics job with the Jays. He interviewed for hours - and directly with Shaprio. The guy said that the Jays analytics team was about 20 ivy league guys, and he didn't think that a single one of them had ever touched a baseball. That's a problem imo.

Unfortunately I think that's the nature of the world today. Being able to leverage Big Data and AI to revolutionize your field. Not that I disagree with the premise, but it's been a radical change that has eliminated the touch and feel aspects of society.

In saying this, I also wouldn't want dinosaurs like Dave Stewart and TLR anywhere near my team. There's a fine line between using/abusing analytics and it's for sure been crossed based on Joe Maddon's comments last year. Orgs don't care about experienced managers anymore because that means they'll likely have differing opinions/philosophies when it comes to game management. And I doubt Maddon is completely in opposition to analytics having managed under Friedman, Epstein, and Hoyer.

This isn't just an issue with the Jays. Not only is this happening in virtually all orgs, but Minasian took his inspiration from his time spent with the Braves. And it's true, the Braves pulled their own starter in the World Series, much like Schneider did in game 2, because of analytics. If the best teams in the league are doing this, you'd expect even the worst teams to try and replicate it. And that's just the dilemma all sports are dealing with today.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

Of course, and it also placed the org in this precarious position of having to sustain that type of success despite an aged core. It was like those early 2010s Yankees. Great squad, but short shelf life.

I think that’s also the argument for “sustainable” success vs gunning it for a year or two. If your year doesn’t actually turn out to be your year (which happens in most cases due to the nature of the sport), then you’re back to the drawing board for another few years before you can load up again.

I think this therein lies the frustration. We're nearly a decade into the Shapiro/Atkins era, and the results haven't followed suit with the "sustainable" success they have been building. Yes, they are a perennial 90-win team. But as fans I think we've been expecting more than them bowing out year-after-year in the wild card series three of the last four years.

They have shown to have a good developmental blueprint where they could have gone all-in for a couple years, and then rebuilt the farm system over time. At some point you just have to go for it (like in 2015) than just continually hoarding prospects hoping it'll all come together.

Credit to them though, that unlike the concerns of them having come from Cleveland where they seemingly stood pad, they actually have gone out and utilized the bigger budget afforded to them here in Toronto, and have made a big trade (Berrios) and big name signings (Springer, re-signing Berrios).

Luckily time is on their side with their two superstars in Vladdy and Bo being so young still that they don't have to expedite their build in trying to capitalize on their talents before time runs out. Unfortunately though, it looks as though there are more holes on the team surrounding them than most of us had thought.

 

[Eyedea]

I think this therein lies the frustration. We're nearly a decade into the Shapiro/Atkins era, and the results haven't followed suit with the "sustainable" success they have been building. Yes, they are a perennial 90-win team. But as fans I think we've been expecting more than them bowing out year-after-year in the wild card series three of the last four years.

They have shown to have a good developmental blueprint where they could have gone all-in for a couple years, and then rebuilt the farm system over time. At some point you just have to go for it (like in 2015) than just continually hoarding prospects hoping it'll all come together.

Credit to them though, that unlike the concerns of them having come from Cleveland where they seemingly stood pad, they actually have gone out and utilized the bigger budget afforded to them here in Toronto, and have made a big trade (Berrios) and big name signings (Springer, re-signing Berrios).

Luckily time is on their side with their two superstars in Vladdy and Bo being so young still that they don't have to expedite their build in trying to capitalize on their talents before time runs out. Unfortunately though, it looks as though there are more holes on the team surrounding them than most of us had thought.

That’s kinda my point though. They’re giving the team chances to win, the team just hasn’t executed. They could just as easily try to go all in and end up in the exact same situation (or worse) these past few years (Mets? Padres?).

They probably should’ve won at least game 2 vs the Mariners last year, and this year the offence was wildly inconsistent and couldn’t overcome their deficits. I think we’re built pretty similarly to the Phillies and Mariners, one of which advanced to the DS (and the WS last year), the other didn’t make the postseason (but beat us last year).

 

[TheTotalPackage]

That’s kinda my point though. They’re giving the team chances to win, the team just hasn’t executed. They could just as easily try to go all in and end up in the exact same situation (or worse) these past few years (Mets? Padres?).

They probably should’ve won at least game 2 vs the Mariners last year, and this year the offence was wildly inconsistent and couldn’t overcome their deficits. I think we’re built pretty similarly to the Phillies and Mariners, one of which advanced to the DS (and the WS last year), the other didn’t make the postseason (but beat us last year).

Yeah, I hear you.

They could become the Mets and Padres. But I think we've been expecting more of the Cardinals-like success they had for that long stretch in recent memory.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

As someone who has followed this team since the 80’s it’s hard to look at Beeston in a negative light but you’re probably right.

Brandon Belt was absolute garbage in the two games, and John (I'm a puppet) Schneider had him hitting second. He was garbage for us most of the season. Nevermind his propensity to strikeout at key moments. Belt hit .208/.315/.705 with runners in scoring position, with two outs he was even worse .194/.310/.643. In high leverage situations he hit .209/.333/.721 with three home runs and 15 RBI. So Belt was a guy who padded his stats in situations that didn't lead to important runs. In fact, he had only 7 RBIs in the seventh inning or later when the score was within two runs. Good riddance Belt as you ride off into the sunset.

Oh, and have I mentioned that Atkins and his analytics department should be shot to the moon? He should be the first to go, followed by John (Berrios is pitching the game of his life but I'm still taking him out) Schneider.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

How is he supposed to hear the guy jogging in behind him? Correa literally mentioned to Gray earlier in the game that they can't hear Rivera yelling to go back because of the stadium noise. Credit to Correa and credit to the fans as it looked like a great playoff atmosphere.

I never played so I can't really understand it and maybe it was so loud no one could hear any footsteps .. could be a viable explanation to me

Thing is, both Vlad and Bo seem to be not so smart on the baseball field. Bo makes some atrocious decisions at times on the base paths, at the plate, and fielding his position.

I don't know how smart those 2 guys are in life and/or baseball .. could be just entitled guys who are learning life's lessons .. not sure

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Gausman is literally one of the most dominant top-of-the-rotation starters in MLB over the past 3 years and is statistically pretty much on par with Gerrit Cole. Led the AL in strikeouts, 3rd straight year under a 3.00 FIP, will be top-5 in Cy Young voting.

If Manoah was his 2021-22 self, that theoretically should have been one of the best 1-2 punches in MLB with Bassitt as one of the best #3 starters and Berrios one of the best #4s. But who knows if Manoah will rebound, or even if he'll play for the team again following his circus act at the end of the year.

Looks to me like a guy who sh*ts himself when it matters .. to win playoffs you need an ACE .. who wins games by himself .. no runs allowed if his team does not hit

NAME	SEASON	TM	G	W	L	W%	GS	CG	GF	SHO	SV	IP	H	TBF	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	HBP	SO	WP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	H/9	BB/9	K/BB	ERA-	FIP	FIP-	PRAA
Kevin Gausman	2014	BAL	3	0	0		0	0	1	0	0	8.0	4	27	1	1	0	2	0	0	7	0	1.13	0.75	7.88	4.50	2.25	3.50
Kevin Gausman	2018	ATL	1	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	2.0	2	10	2	2	1	2	0	0	4	0	9.00	2.00	18.00	9.00	9.00	2.00
Kevin Gausman	2021	SFG	2	0	1	.000	1	0	1	0	0	6.0	4	25	4	4	0	3	1	0	7	0	6.00	1.17	10.50	6.00	4.50	2.33
Kevin Gausman	2022	TOR	1	0	0		1	0	0	0	0	5.2	5	24	4	4	0	1	0	0	7	0	6.35	1.06	11.12	7.94	1.59	7.00
Kevin Gausman	2023	TOR	1	0	1	.000	1	0	0	0	0	4.0	3	18	3	3	2	3	0	0	5	0	6.75	1.50	11.25	6.75	6.75	1.67
Total				0	2	.000	3	0	2	0	0	25.2	18	104	14	14	3	11	1	0	30	0	4.91	1.13	10.52	6.31	3.86	2.73

 

[Eyedea]

Brandon Belt was absolute garbage in the two games, and John (I'm a puppet) Schneider had him hitting second. He was garbage for us most of the season. Nevermind his propensity to strikeout at key moments. Belt hit .208/.315/.705 with runners in scoring position, with two outs he was even worse .194/.310/.643. In high leverage situations he hit .209/.333/.721 with three home runs and 15 RBI. So Belt was a guy who padded his stats in situations that didn't lead to important runs. In fact, he had only 7 RBIs in the seventh inning or later when the score was within two runs. Good riddance Belt as you ride off into the sunset.

Oh, and have I mentioned that Atkins and his analytics department should be shot to the moon? He should be the first to go, followed by John (Berrios is pitching the game of his life but I'm still taking him out) Schneider.

I think those stats are more indicative of why he was batting 2nd as opposed to 4th. More ABs to get on base (he led the team in OBP), and Bo had more ABs to drive in runs. Belt was also coming in hot with 3 homeruns in his last 4 games. It didn't work out but that wasn't a bad call to make. There was also a lot of groaning over Biggio batting 5th when he was the best hitter on the team in high leverage situations and with men on base. It just didn't work out.

 

[DuklaNation]

Vladdy's lack of focus on the basepaths is alarming. Getting picked off at 2nd with 2 outs AND a runner at 3rd is inexcusable. I really don't see that aspect as fixable. Some people just can't handle too much information at once.

 

[tmlms13]

That’s the thing, in 2015 the Jays were the best team but Cecil got injured, Royals were lucky, Goins made the mistake in game two, Dickey stunk in game 4. Jays down 3-1 and couldn’t complete the comeback. In 2016, despite Sanchez taking a big leap, Happ doing well and a very solid bullpen, the bats stunk. Their short window was closed quickly and a rebuild needed to start.

Cecil being healthy wouldn't have changed much. The problem was David Price and Tulo not living up to their regular seasons

 

[MS]

There's a nice rational viewpoint stating AA is an excellent GM who improved during his time in Toronto and got better in LA. He made mistakes during his time in Toronto but also brought playoff baseball back which is crucial. He wasn't perfect and had flaws that cost him during most of his time in Toronto. I was a big fan of his during his time here. You can look through my posting history.

What frustrates me, is what's the point of discussing him now? He left on his own accord. He's been gone since 2015. I'd much rather discuss replacements for potential people who might get fired. What hitting coaches are out there? Who could replace Atkins other than Click? Who can replace Schneider?

Yeah. 2015 was 9 seasons ago.

This was a discussion for 2016 or 2017 but rehashing management changes that happened almost a decade ago seems pretty pointless. Especially when it isn't like we've been the White Sox or Tigers and the new guys did a pretty damned good job rebuilding and getting us back to the playoffs 4 years later.

And again, I liked AA and was disappointed when he left.

 

[Hellcat]

Unfortunately I think that's the nature of the world today. Being able to leverage Big Data and AI to revolutionize your field. Not that I disagree with the premise, but it's been a radical change that has eliminated the touch and feel aspects of society.

In saying this, I also wouldn't want dinosaurs like Dave Stewart and TLR anywhere near my team. There's a fine line between using/abusing analytics and it's for sure been crossed based on Joe Maddon's comments last year. Orgs don't care about experienced managers anymore because that means they'll likely have differing opinions/philosophies when it comes to game management. And I doubt Maddon is completely in opposition to analytics having managed under Friedman, Epstein, and Hoyer.

This isn't just an issue with the Jays. Not only is this happening in virtually all orgs, but Minasian took his inspiration from his time spent with the Braves. And it's true, the Braves pulled their own starter in the World Series, much like Schneider did in game 2, because of analytics. If the best teams in the league are doing this, you'd expect even the worst teams to try and replicate it. And that's just the dilemma all sports are dealing with today.

Agree with your post, AL/ML is a tool, not the be all and end all though. When AI looks to predict human behaviour, humans are humans, prone to over achieve/under achieve the mean. AI is heavily used in in my field, as such I have a few insights more than the average Joe when it comes to AI. AI is still in it's infancy, AI is not perfect, or close to perfect but it can do some incredible things, with that said there are limitations and when AI and reality dont meet it's up to the human to make the decision. For example if AI predicts the 3rd time around a pitcher is hit @ a. 300 pace and the team he is pitching against hits at a .310 pace the third time around but he has a no hitter going into the 7th, do you yank him or let the pitcher run with it? To be honest a lot of time we dont know what to expect from AI. I've see 3 different major Tech companies crunch the exact same data, come out with 3 different predictions and all 3 are not even close to what actually happened. There is bad AI, there is good AI. Human common sense is still needed, I think in Berrios's case common sense was not used.

 

[MS]

Because you did compare the 2. Your very first sentence in your response to me was posting that reference to Babe Ruth.

You literally proved my point by showing that! LMFAO.

Your elementary school level reading skills do not seem to be able to distinguish between an 'example' and a 'comparison'. This is actually unbelievable.

You asked how a player could lead the league in strikeouts and not suck. I gave an example of a player who led the league in strikeouts many times and didn't suck, and then explained how a player could lead the league in strikeouts and not suck. It didn't mean I was comparing our aging platoon DH to the greatest hitter who ever lived.