Blue Jays GDT: 2023 v13 | **WILDCARD SERIES GAME 2** Wed, Oct 4 | @ Min | 4:30pm ET/1:30pm PT | Berrios vs Gray

[TheMadHatTrick]

That's simply not true and has been refuted in the previous few pages.

It's funny how previous Dubas supporters have turned on him as soon as he left the team the same way people have turned on AA with visceral hatred now that he's gone. Meanwhile, as someone who was not a fan of Dubas' when everyone thought he was our Theo Epstein, I can still give him credit where it is due and I don't dislike him any more because he is with another team anymore than I did when he was here. It's like Dubas derangement syndrome. The moment a guy leaves the org people all of a sudden have to hate them to cope.

 

[Kurtz]

It's funny how previous Dubas supporters have turned on him as soon as he left the team the same way people have turned on AA with visceral hatred now that he's gone. Meanwhile, as someone who was not a fan of Dubas' when everyone thought he was our Theo Epstein, I can still give him credit where it is due and I don't dislike him any more because he is with another team anymore than I did when he was here. It's like Dubas derangement syndrome. The moment a guy leaves the org people all of a sudden have to hate them to cope.

This happens with trades too. Peoples first reaction to trades is usually the most honest/accurate - ie just about everyone hated the Varsho trade the moment it happened.

Then the spin begins, folks begin rationalizing, and the sentiment on even the worst moves turns positive.

I mean I'll take a ridiculously positive board over a ridiculously negative one any day, but optimally we should aim for objectivity.

 

[A1LeafNation]

I don't like it but how can you say Minten is not making the opening night roster at this point.

 

[GreytWun]

He left the team devoid of a farm system in 2015....he gutted it.

He walked into a perfect situation in Atlanta. Most of the talent was already there.

The AA crew are as bad at making excuses as the Dubas crew.

What did any of those prospects amount to? If anything it's even better that we made the trades. It was absolutely right choice to get rid of those guys. We made the playoffs and that was the year I believe we should have won it. We were loaded.

Hoffman, Boyd, Norris, Castro. They all haven't been anything but mediocre to bad players.

 

[canucksfan]

There's a nice rational viewpoint stating AA is an excellent GM who improved during his time in Toronto and got better in LA. He made mistakes during his time in Toronto but also brought playoff baseball back which is crucial. He wasn't perfect and had flaws that cost him during most of his time in Toronto. I was a big fan of his during his time here. You can look through my posting history.

What frustrates me, is what's the point of discussing him now? He left on his own accord. He's been gone since 2015. I'd much rather discuss replacements for potential people who might get fired. What hitting coaches are out there? Who could replace Atkins other than Click? Who can replace Schneider?

 

[kb]

That's simply not true and has been refuted in the previous few pages.

He put some finishing touches on his team, but the heavy lifting to allow that had already taken place. The assets were in place for trades as their farm system was overflowing with talent and the major league club was well on it's way.

Again, I liked AA. However, I hold him to the same standards as anyone. He left the Jays with a near barren farm system and a very old team. And he walked into a near perfect situation in Atlanta. Happy for him that he got that situation and capitalized.

But he didn't build it.

 

[Kurtz]

There's a nice rational viewpoint stating AA is an excellent GM who improved during his time in Toronto and got better in LA. He made mistakes during his time in Toronto but also brought playoff baseball back which is crucial. He wasn't perfect and flaws that cost him during most of his time in Toronto. I was a big fan of his during his time here. You can look through my posting history.

What frustrates me, is what's the point of discussing him now? He left on his own accord. He's been gone since 2015. I'd much rather discuss replacements for potential people who might get fired. What hitting coaches are out there? Who could replace Atkins other than Click? Who can replace Schneider?

I think it's because the architects of AA's departure are still here, and as the mediocre Atkins, who replaced AA, is still here, the comparison between the performance of the two is unavoidable.

I will say this however - if Atkins is given the boot and James Click is given the reigns, I think the comparisons will largely disappear* as Click's resume is just as impressive as AA's if not moreso.



*unless Atlanta turns into a dynasty, which is frustratingly possible.

 

[Kurtz]

He put some finishing touches on his team, but the heavy lifting to allow that had already taken place. The assets were in place for trades as their farm system was overflowing with talent and the major league club was well on it's way.

Again, I liked AA. However, I hold him to the same standards as anyone. He left the Jays with a near barren farm system and a very old team. And he walked into a near perfect situation in Atlanta. Happy for him that he got that situation and capitalized.

But he didn't build it.

We've already discussed the fact that Alex rebuilt the entire outfield at the deadline the year they won (without giving up much). And we've discussed that the team he assembled today is full of stars and impact players that he added without spilling too much draft capital.

Yes, he inherited the best farm in baseball, but he also inherited a team that was coming off a 70 win season. To say that it was easy to build a 70 team into a WS winner is a little silly.

Look at the Padres for example. 3 years ago they had by far the best system in baseball and a near unlimited war chest. Where are they today?

And if you look at Atlanta today, many of their impact players have been brought in by Alex, signed to great contracts, and without ravaging the farm.


Now as to your point that he left our farm system in tatters, that's also largely arguable. In 2015, Baseball Prospectus had our system ranked 10th in the majors. In 2016 it was ranked 22nd. I don't have a BP subscription to see where we're ranked atm, but all the free scouting publications have us ranked right around 20th. In other words, AA left our farm in almost exact same spot as Shapkins have right now, but unlike them, he actually delivered excitement and playoff success.

 

[canucksfan]

I think it's because the architects of AA's departure are still here, and as the mediocre Atkins, who replaced AA, is still here, the comparison between the performance of the two is unavoidable.

I will say this however - if Atkins is given the boot and James Click is given the reigns, I think the comparisons will largely disappear* as Click's resume is just as impressive as AA's if not moreso.



*unless Atlanta turns into a dynasty, which is frustratingly possible.

They didn't cause him to leave. It is my understanding not keeping Beeston resulted in AA leaving. If I remember correctly, I think there was talk of AA leaving after the season even when the Jays clinched in 2015. Atkins wasn't hired until December.

 

[GreytWun]

They didn't cause him to leave. It is my understanding not keeping Beeston resulted in AA leaving. If I remember correctly, I think there was talk of AA leaving after the season even when the Jays clinched in 2015. Atkins wasn't hired until December.

I believe he left because he wasn't in control of the team. Shapiro was always going to be on top of the org chart.

 

[Kurtz]

They didn't cause him to leave. It is my understanding not keeping Beeston resulted in AA leaving. If I remember correctly, I think there was talk of AA leaving after the season even when the Jays clinched in 2015. Atkins wasn't hired until December.

I don't want to get too deep into this because this terrain has been covered many times, but when Shapiro was brought in, he only talked to Alex to chastise him for the deals he made. Alex understandably bailed (as would I if I did a good job on a big project, and my new manager ripped me a new one for it), and then Shapiro brought in the guy he wanted to bring in in Atkins.

So while it's true that AA wasn't fired, he was indeed pushed out. Although maybe Rogers deserves a larger share of the blame.

 

[canucksfan]

I believe he left because he wasn't in control of the team. Shapiro was always going to be on top of the org chart.

He wasn't in control of the team when he was under Beeston.

EDIT: He probably had more freedom under Beeston than he would under a new president whether it be Shapiro or someone else.

 

[Eyedea]

Yeah, mostly the same people hating on him now. Haters gotta hate. lol

What? I liked AA as the Jays GM and have no ill will towards him for leaving or finding success somewhere else. As a fellow Greek-Canadian his come up was inspiring to me and I’ll always appreciate his efforts to bringing a championship club to Toronto.

However, I’m not using his success in Atlanta as reason to believe it would have been emulated here.

 

[Kurtz]

What? I liked AA as the Jays GM and have no ill will towards him for leaving or finding success somewhere else. As a fellow Greek-Canadian his come up was inspiring to me and I’ll always appreciate his efforts to bringing a championship club to Toronto.

However, I’m not using his success in Atlanta as reason to believe it would have been emulated here.

He already achieved success here, no reason to think he wouldn't have been able to do it again. We know that he's a very astute GM, no reason for that not to translate in multiple markets.

Anyway, could we at least agree that Atkins needs to go?

 

[canucksfan]

I don't want to get too deep into this because this terrain has been covered many times, but when Shapiro was brought in, he only talked to Alex to chastise him for the deals he made. Alex understandably bailed (as would I if I did a good job on a big project, and my new manager ripped me a new one for it), and then Shapiro brought in the guy he wanted to bring in in Atkins.

So while it's true that AA wasn't fired, he was indeed pushed out. Although maybe Rogers deserves a larger share of the blame.

I think what you said also played a role.

AA had freedom under Beeston who he was loyal to. Shapiro comes in to replace Beeston and AA doesn't want to have more restrictions on him. I don't think it's Shapiro's fault because most new people would have more restrictions on the GM. Furthermore, they probably had different philosophies.

Regardless of who was coming in, AA was likely going to leave because of his loyalty to Beeston, being under a new person, and likely less freedom.

What I didn't like at the time, was Shapiro bringing in his own guy. I hate nepotism. I can't remember who else was available but there could have been better options. Atkins isn't a horrible GM. He turned the team around quickly and has done well with free-agent signings and most trades. However, his teams haven't had playoff success, and with Click waiting in the wings it's a logical move.

 

[Eyedea]

What did any of those prospects amount to? If anything it's even better that we made the trades. It was absolutely right choice to get rid of those guys. We made the playoffs and that was the year I believe we should have won it. We were loaded.

Hoffman, Boyd, Norris, Castro. They all haven't been anything but mediocre to bad players.

The point was that the capital was used for AA’s gain. Even if it was the right choice, Shapiro would have preferred to do it under his own accord and purview.

This is why I don’t necessarily place blame on Shapiro for being critical of the moves, and I also don’t place blame on AA for leaving. He took one more shot knowing he wouldn’t have that autonomy anymore here and then look for a better opportunity elsewhere. He bounced from the Dodgers when a golden opportunity arose in Atlanta. He had 8 top 100 prospects (Acuna, Riley, Fried, Wright, Anderson, etc.) entering the 2018 season including young 2017 graduates like Swanson and Albies.

He already achieved success here, no reason to think he wouldn't have been able to do it again. We know that he's a very astute GM, no reason for that not to translate in multiple markets.

Anyway, could we at least agree that Atkins needs to go?

Perhaps if Click is the solution. My question is how much autonomy would Click really have anyway? Perhaps Shapiro still has his hands on some of these deals.

 

[Eyedea]

I think those nepo type of setups Atkins got always happen in MLB though. You can honestly take a look around and find that a majority of GMs/Execs in the league got their starts in Cleveland under Shapiro or in Tampa/LA under Friedman. And if not under them, then indirectly linked through a former exec that was under them. It’s a little odd and weirdly fascinating how it happened.

 

[Squiffy]

Load them all in a rocket and fire it in to the sun is the gist right?

I think what you said also played a role.

AA had freedom under Beeston who he was loyal to. Shapiro comes in to replace Beeston and AA doesn't want to have more restrictions on him. I don't think it's Shapiro's fault because most new people would have more restrictions on the GM. Furthermore, they probably had different philosophies.

Regardless of who was coming in, AA was likely going to leave because of his loyalty to Beeston, being under a new person, and likely less freedom.

What I didn't like at the time, was Shapiro bringing in his own guy. I hate nepotism. I can't remember who else was available but there could have been better options. Atkins isn't a horrible GM. He turned the team around quickly and has done well with free-agent signings and most trades. However, his teams haven't had playoff success, and with Click waiting in the wings it's a logical move.

So Rogers ownership for following a spreadsheet and bringing in a consensus modern management structure, that some headhunting firm told them was the best available. Because that's what happened really.

But.. they have been good, for a good number of years running, and they don't appear to be about to fall off the cliff. Disappointing as it is, there is some sustained success going on that hasn't gotten over yet. Like the Leafs. I's not tear down time here.

 

[GreytWun]

The point was that the capital was used for AA’s gain. Even if it was the right choice, Shapiro would have preferred to do it under his own accord and purview.

This is why I don’t necessarily place blame on Shapiro for being critical of the moves, and I also don’t place blame on AA for leaving. He took one more shot knowing he wouldn’t have that autonomy anymore here and then look for a better opportunity elsewhere. He bounced from the Dodgers when a golden opportunity arose in Atlanta. He had 8 top 100 prospects (Acuna, Riley, Fried, Wright, Anderson, etc.) entering the 2018 season including young 2017 graduates like Swanson and Albies.



Perhaps if Click is the solution. My question is how much autonomy would Click really have anyway? Perhaps Shapiro still has his hands on some of these deals.

That's too bad for Shapiro. AA was running the team at the beginning of April, not Shapiro. AA had the vision and went for it. We the fans got to experience something we hadn't for 22 years. That was our year to win it but we lost it against KC.

 

[Kurtz]

I think what you said also played a role.

AA had freedom under Beeston who he was loyal to. Shapiro comes in to replace Beeston and AA doesn't want to have more restrictions on him. I don't think it's Shapiro's fault because most new people would have more restrictions on the GM. Furthermore, they probably had different philosophies.

Regardless of who was coming in, AA was likely going to leave because of his loyalty to Beeston, being under a new person, and likely less freedom.

What I didn't like at the time, was Shapiro bringing in his own guy. I hate nepotism. I can't remember who else was available but there could have been better options. Atkins isn't a horrible GM. He turned the team around quickly and has done well with free-agent signings and most trades. However, his teams haven't had playoff success, and with Click waiting in the wings it's a logical move.

Yeah I think Atkins is a perfectly average GM. And you can absolutely win AL Central with an average GM, but not the AL East imo.

 

[Eyedea]

That's too bad for Shapiro. AA was running the team at the beginning of April, not Shapiro. AA had the vision and went for it. We the fans got to experience something we hadn't for 22 years. That was our year to win it but we lost it against KC.

Of course, and it also placed the org in this precarious position of having to sustain that type of success despite an aged core. It was like those early 2010s Yankees. Great squad, but short shelf life.

I think that’s also the argument for “sustainable” success vs gunning it for a year or two. If your year doesn’t actually turn out to be your year (which happens in most cases due to the nature of the sport), then you’re back to the drawing board for another few years before you can load up again.

 

[Kurtz]

The point was that the capital was used for AA’s gain. Even if it was the right choice, Shapiro would have preferred to do it under his own accord and purview.

This is why I don’t necessarily place blame on Shapiro for being critical of the moves, and I also don’t place blame on AA for leaving. He took one more shot knowing he wouldn’t have that autonomy anymore here and then look for a better opportunity elsewhere. He bounced from the Dodgers when a golden opportunity arose in Atlanta. He had 8 top 100 prospects (Acuna, Riley, Fried, Wright, Anderson, etc.) entering the 2018 season including young 2017 graduates like Swanson and Albies.



Perhaps if Click is the solution. My question is how much autonomy would Click really have anyway? Perhaps Shapiro still has his hands on some of these deals.

But AA added a shitload of talent to that team without touching those top prospects you'd mentioned, that's kinda the point. Why assume he couldn't have done that here a second time if given the autonomy?

Speaking out autonomy...that's part of the problem. Shapiro is the guy who controls the analytics department and they seem to have too firm of a grasp on this org.

On another baseball forum, a poster has a son who is a Harvard grad and interviewed for an analytics job with the Jays. He interviewed for hours - and directly with Shaprio. The guy said that the Jays analytics team was about 20 ivy league guys, and he didn't think that a single one of them had ever touched a baseball. That's a problem imo.

 

[canucksfan]

Of course, and it also placed the org in this precarious position of having to sustain that type of success despite an aged core. It was like those early 2010s Yankees. Great squad, but short shelf life.

I think that’s also the argument for “sustainable” success vs gunning it for a year or two. If your year doesn’t actually turn out to be your year (which happens in most cases due to the nature of the sport), then you’re back to the drawing board for another few years before you can load up again.

That’s the thing, in 2015 the Jays were the best team but Cecil got injured, Royals were lucky, Goins made the mistake in game two, Dickey stunk in game 4. Jays down 3-1 and couldn’t complete the comeback. In 2016, despite Sanchez taking a big leap, Happ doing well and a very solid bullpen, the bats stunk. Their short window was closed quickly and a rebuild needed to start.

 

[Kurtz]

That’s the thing, in 2015 the Jays were the best team but Cecil got injured, Royals were lucky, Goins made the mistake in game two, Dickey stunk in game 4. Jays down 3-1 and couldn’t complete the comeback. In 2016, despite Sanchez taking a big leap, Happ doing well and a very solid bullpen, the bats stunk. Their short window was closed quickly and a rebuild needed to start.

I still can't get over the fact that we would have almost certainly won the WS that year had we pulled the trigger on that Rowdy Tellez for Ben Zobrist deal. The one time AA decided to be conservative.

 

[canucksfan]

I still can't get over the fact that we would have almost certainly won the WS that year had we pulled the trigger on that Rowdy Tellez for Ben Zobrist deal. The one time AA decided to be conservative.

A heathy Travis and Cecil even results in a Jays WS.