Blue Jays GDT: 2023 v13 | **WILDCARD SERIES GAME 2** Wed, Oct 4 | @ Min | 4:30pm ET/1:30pm PT | Berrios vs Gray

[MK78]

And then the signs for Vladdy declining? The signs the entire year showed that he should be hitting better than what he was. That's exactly what Atkins was referring to when he said he believed that the team would turn it around.

Vladdy wasn’t hitting balls to the track, showing that he was just missing the homers.

He was hitting singles. He didn’t hit a homer at home until July. He had a homer less streak of a month if you don’t include the grand slam off the position player in Tampa.

He swung at so much garbage this year putting himself in bad counts.

His defense at first base also suffered.

Vladdy had a decline 2nd year in a row overall. I’m not a Vladdy hater. Far from it. Just saying what I saw this season.

 

[Kurtz]

Was Vladdy the only person playing there?

I think most guys power numbers went way up playing in those parks. Semien, Bo, Teo etc had their career highs in homers. Semien especially had a monster power season there.

 

[Eyedea]

I think most guys power numbers went way up playing in those parks. Semien, Bo, Teo etc had their career highs in homers. Semien especially had a monster power season there.

Semien had pretty much identical home/road splits. Plus 21 of those homeruns came after they went back to Toronto. Teo predominantly hit on the road and most of those homeruns also came in the 2nd half. Bichette was better at home like Vladdy, but the numbers weren’t close to similar. Plus his most productive month ISO wise was still September/Oct.

Like I’ve said on this subject before, if power and offensive numbers were so inflated at those minor league stadiums then it would be reflected in Vladdy’s wRC+. Nobody, aside from maybe Springer, was close to being as elite offensively as he was. Can anybody explain why that is when all of them played in the same stadium?

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

It’s possible that winning your division and having a bye into the LDS is not an advantage at all. It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the long haul. I would still wager that teams that win their division will have more success over a larger sample size.

I agree about division winners with a bye having more success in the long haul. We've kind of seen it already with Houston winning it all last year and going to the ALCS again this year.

Not sure how they can possibly tweak the byes. I hope they make the LDS a best of 7 at least

Playoff baseball can be random and flukey at times for sure. I'd say the remaining AL teams are the two best regardless of what BAL/TB did during the season, while the two best NL teams were eliminated

 

[Eyedea]

Vladdy wasn’t hitting balls to the track, showing that he was just missing the homers.

He was hitting singles. He didn’t hit a homer at home until July. He had a homer less streak of a month if you don’t include the grand slam off the position player in Tampa.

He swung at so much garbage this year putting himself in bad counts.

His defense at first base also suffered.

Vladdy had a decline 2nd year in a row overall. I’m not a Vladdy hater. Far from it. Just saying what I saw this season.

What made Vladdy a great hitter on the road this year vs a below average one at home? And why did that change this year vs the previous two years where he was better at home and still good on the road?

I don't really see a hitter that declined this year. I see a hitter that was mentally frustrated. He was chasing uncharacteristically for moments during the year, especially in August, but he also showed the most power and least chase in September/October.

I feel like these are the exact same frustrations the Nats had with Harper. Even other guys like Freeman and Seager didn't start consistently hitting for power until they were 25/26. I wouldn't be willing to write off Tatis after a down year either. Sometimes even the best go through these ups and downs. Hell even Miggy didn't have a better year than Vladdy's 2021 until he was in his late 20s.

 

[GreytWun]

What made Vladdy a great hitter on the road this year vs a below average one at home? And why did that change this year vs the previous two years where he was better at home and still good on the road?

I don't really see a hitter that declined this year. I see a hitter that was mentally frustrated. He was chasing uncharacteristically for moments during the year, especially in August, but he also showed the most power and least chase in September/October.

I feel like these are the exact same frustrations the Nats had with Harper. Even other guys like Freeman and Seager didn't start consistently hitting for power until they were 25/26. I wouldn't be willing to write off Tatis after a down year either. Sometimes even the best go through these ups and downs. Hell even Miggy didn't have a better year than Vladdy's 2021 until he was in his late 20s.

Is there a website that shows chase rate? I feel like in 2021 when Vladdy had the better season he was more poised and selected his pitches better which obviously caused the pitchers to give him more pitches in the zone.

I also factor in that we don't really have anyone this year behind Vladdy that could consistently allow him to see better pitches which ultimately lies on the GM.

 

[MK78]

Is there a website that shows chase rate? I feel like in 2021 when Vladdy had the better season he was more poised and selected his pitches better which obviously caused the pitchers to give him more pitches in the zone.

I dont need to see any of these newfangled stats to see that he struggled chasing garbage pitches this year. I watched nearly every game at least in part.

 

[GreytWun]

I dont need to see any of these newfangled stats to see that he struggled chasing garbage pitches this year. I watched nearly every game at least in part.

Never said you did ? I am curious for my own standpoint.

 

[Eyedea]

Is there a website that shows chase rate? I feel like in 2021 when Vladdy had the better season he was more poised and selected his pitches better which obviously caused the pitchers to give him more pitches in the zone.

I also factor in that we don't really have anyone this year behind Vladdy that could consistently allow him to see better pitches which ultimately lies on the GM.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - Stats - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. career batting statistics for Major League, Minor League, and postseason baseball

www.fangraphs.com

Scroll down to plate discipline/pitch info and they show their o-swing% data amongst other plate discipline stats. For the record he has chased more these past couple seasons while also making a lot more contact. I think a quality of contact is missing evidenced by his lack of “sweet spots” (launch angle) on his baseball savant page, but it was still much better than last year where he was a legitimate groundball machine.

It’s easy to say that Vladdy was way too aggressive, he wasn’t hitting anything far, just a singles hitter, and all that stuff but the data clearly points to him having an unlucky season. Would he have more home runs? Likely not. But doubles sure, singles of course, and all of that still contributes to his power and overall numbers.

All of his seasons align perfectly with his xStats/statcast numbers, except for his 2023 where he is a -.034 wOBA off. His average could’ve been closer to .290, his slugging closer to .490, which would bring him up to around an .860 OPS (top 20 among qualified hitters). So even if he could probably play better than his 2023 expected stats (like he did in 2021), he still should’ve put up a great year offensively if his actual stats aligned with the data like it did in other years.

 

[DuklaNation]

75% of Vladdy's plate appearances are outside the 2021 season. Those stats are fairly consistent within each of the 4 seasons which suggests 2021 is the outlier. The other aspect of that season was Semien. When a lineup is deeper, it makes it much harder on opposition pitchers. You need at least 5 dangerous hitters. Having no legit #5 guy is a huge mistake by their "analytics" people.

Maybe, they should consider hiring outside of baseball, people with 20-30 years experience in the field instead. Choose people who actually have to produce on a daily basis. You know, if they don't, they lose their jobs, unlike in the Jays offices.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

I knew this was a god awful trade the moment it was made.

 

[mikeyz]

Acuna hits .143 in the playoffs, abysmal, this guy is trash. POS….am I doing this right?

This isn't as big of a flex as you think it is my friend.

That average was still better then the majority of the Blue Jays lineup in the playoffs this year.

 

[dredeye]

I knew this was a god awful trade the moment it was made.

This has already been posted but that’s vs the other catchers on their team. He’s a great young catcher but at least try when you want to troll

 

[dredeye]

Acuna hits .143 in the playoffs, abysmal, this guy is trash. POS….am I doing this right?

Nope but you think you did. He had a double which is a many extra base hits as our whole team in the post season. He stole 2 bases. More than our entire team. Scored three runs. More than our entire team. So even with a bad post season he still did well enough to contribute.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

This has already been posted but that’s vs the other catchers on their team. He’s a great young catcher but at least try when you want to troll

There is no trolling here. That trade was brutal.

 

[GoonieFace]

This isn't as big of a flex as you think it is my friend.

That average was still better then the majority of the Blue Jays lineup in the playoffs this year.

I was never much of a flexer, but I’m glad we are friends

 

[frizzer1]

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