Blue Jays GDT: 2023 v13 | **WILDCARD SERIES GAME 2** Wed, Oct 4 | @ Min | 4:30pm ET/1:30pm PT | Berrios vs Gray

[tmlms13]

Agreed, but is it more on the players, especially Vladdy, who kept swinging at pitches out of the strike zone or missing on very hittable pitches? This team, in my mind, is a mess right now. Too many holes on offense. And either Schneider is following orders from above, aka Shapiro and Atkins, or else he's not the right coach for this team. Some players should have been made to sit out some games this season for making boneheaded/careless mistakes, especially on the basepaths.

If you listen to Schneider's post game comments you can tell this was practically a follow the plan we made or you're fired.

Shatkins will never hire a manager that is anything other than a yes man. The person to get fired should be the person who connected the analytics department to on-field decisions so heavily.

 

[DuklaNation]

He is directing the analytics usage during game decisions? Atkins or Shapiro? Obviously Shapiro has last say but which one is the driving force behind its usage?

Ross Atkins: Wake Forest was a pitcher there and got drafted. No degree mentioned. Looking further, seems like economics was his undergraduate major. Wake is not a top economics school.

Mark Shapiro: attended Princeton and majored in history. LMAO.

Educationally, one can definitely progress beyond college especially in workplace. But many of these guys in sports get jobs via networks/nepotism or playing careers.

Given the above brief glance, I would assert their comprehension ANY analytics would be rudimentary at best. I'd bet my money on it. Which makes their over reliance on it even more damning.

 

[Eyedea]

If you listen to Schneider's post game comments you can tell this was practically a follow the plan we made or you're fired.

Shatkins will never hire a manager that is anything other than a yes man. The person to get fired should be the person who connected the analytics department to on-field decisions so heavily.

As I mentioned on the previous page this is a growing concern in all sports. The Braves won the WS following these same pre-game strategies influenced by analytics. Schneider knows his role though and he’s not looking to revolt, otherwise another job like this won’t come along.

 

[DuklaNation]

Braves had a lineup with 2 of the best hitters in the game: Acuna/Freeman, plus Riley, Albies, Swanson all dangerous hitters. Whatever they did, ignore it, you don't have that lineup and their analytics starting point will be much different. If this statement is not understood, then any interpretation of analytics in sports should be ignored immediately.

 

[mikeyz]

Your elementary school level reading skills do not seem to be able to distinguish between an 'example' and a 'comparison'. This is actually unbelievable.

You asked how a player could lead the league in strikeouts and not suck. I gave an example of a player who led the league in strikeouts many times and didn't suck, and then explained how a player could lead the league in strikeouts and not suck. It didn't mean I was comparing our aging platoon DH to the greatest hitter who ever lived.

I know what you’re saying and it’s a fair enough point . But how Do you think that looks when I am talking about Belt and the first thing you say in response was Babe Ruth doing the same thing?

Come on man. Whether you meant to do it or not. You did compare the 2.

 

[Bjindaho]

As I mentioned on the previous page this is a growing concern in all sports. The Braves won the WS following these same pre-game strategies influenced by analytics. Schneider knows his role though and he’s not looking to revolt, otherwise another job like this won’t come along.

The issue isn't the use of analytics.

It is the analytics department that doesn't understand basic numbers. There are no analytics that support lifting Berrios in the 2nd inning, 3rd inning or 4th inning (the 3 times that relievers were up). There are no analytics that support pitching Kikuchi over Berrios.

There are no analytics that support burning Romero out down the stretch in stupid spots forcing the Jays to use Hicks as a closer.

Analytics supported Chapman not hitting 4th (you could make a case for leadoff, given his ridiculous runners on/bases empty split) or lower. Analytics supported Belt and his high OBP hitting in a spot where OBP is valuable (like 2nd). And, if you wanted to get anal with your analytics, analytics suggested that Cam Eden should have been the guy on 2nd when Vlad got picked off (good baserunner versus poor one in a key situation).

 

[dredeye]

What did any of those prospects amount to? If anything it's even better that we made the trades. It was absolutely right choice to get rid of those guys. We made the playoffs and that was the year I believe we should have won it. We were loaded.

Hoffman, Boyd, Norris, Castro. They all haven't been anything but mediocre to bad players.

Desclafani, Syndergard, musgrove to name a few that were/are good/great mlb players.

 

[Eyedea]

The issue isn't the use of analytics.

It is the analytics department that doesn't understand basic numbers. There are no analytics that support lifting Berrios in the 2nd inning, 3rd inning or 4th inning (the 3 times that relievers were up). There are no analytics that support pitching Kikuchi over Berrios.

There are no analytics that support burning Romero out down the stretch in stupid spots forcing the Jays to use Hicks as a closer.

Analytics supported Chapman not hitting 4th (you could make a case for leadoff, given his ridiculous runners on/bases empty split) or lower. Analytics supported Belt and his high OBP hitting in a spot where OBP is valuable (like 2nd). And, if you wanted to get anal with your analytics, analytics suggested that Cam Eden should have been the guy on 2nd when Vlad got picked off (good baserunner versus poor one in a key situation).

It's absolutely the use of analytics. The part you glossed over was the pre-game strategy. And that's the issue in cases like Berrios. They were always going to pull him once he got through the lineup two times, and they were probably going to pull him if he ever got into trouble during those early innings.

 

[Bjindaho]

It's absolutely the use of analytics. The part you glossed over was the pre-game strategy. And that's the issue in cases like Berrios. They were always going to pull him once he got through the lineup two times, and they were probably going to pull him if he ever got into trouble during those early innings.

But the analytics don't support those decisions. They were based on people who can't math.

 

[Eyedea]

Braves had a lineup with 2 of the best hitters in the game: Acuna/Freeman, plus Riley, Albies, Swanson all dangerous hitters. Whatever they did, ignore it, you don't have that lineup and their analytics starting point will be much different. If this statement is not understood, then any interpretation of analytics in sports should be ignored immediately.

Acuna was out for 2021 with an ACL tear but that's beside the point. The pre-game strategy I referenced was pulling Ian Anderson after 5 no hit innings in game 3 of the World Series. The pre-game strategy was to give him at most two turns through the lineup. He managed to do that over 5 innings and the Braves were up just 1-0.

 

[Eyedea]

But the analytics don't support those decisions. They were based on people who can't math.

Split	G	IP	ER	ERA	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
1st inning	32	32.0	14	3.94	132	122	14	30	6	0	4	1	1	9	31	3.44	.246	.303	.393	.696	48	2	1	0	0	0	0	.299	100	84
2nd inning	32	32.0	10	2.81	123	112	10	22	5	0	4	2	0	8	32	4.00	.196	.262	.348	.611	39	3	2	1	0	0	0	.237	75	69
3rd inning	32	32.0	5	1.41	121	114	6	20	4	0	1	3	0	4	29	7.25	.175	.215	.237	.452	27	1	2	0	1	0	1	.224	31	22
4th inning	32	32.0	19	5.34	134	124	21	32	7	1	4	1	0	8	29	3.63	.258	.306	.427	.733	53	2	1	0	1	1	1	.304	110	94
5th inning	31	29.1	15	4.60	129	112	14	31	1	0	6	2	1	15	23	1.53	.277	.367	.446	.814	50	3	1	1	0	2	1	.301	135	121
6th inning	27	23.2	12	4.56	104	94	11	25	8	1	5	3	2	8	30	3.75	.266	.337	.532	.868	50	2	2	0	0	0	3	.339	146	130
7th inning	9	8.0	2	2.25	35	35	2	11	2	0	1	0	0	0	9		.314	.314	.457	.771	16	0	0	0	0	0	0	.400	120	112
8th inning	1	0.2	0	0.00	4	4	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1		.500	.500	.500	1.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	.667	193	185
Innings 1-3	32	96.0	29	2.72	376	348	30	72	15	0	9	6	1	21	92	4.38	.207	.261	.328	.589	114	6	5	1	1	0	1	.254	70	59
Innings 4-6	32	85.0	46	4.87	367	330	46	88	16	2	15	6	3	31	82	2.65	.267	.336	.464	.800	153	7	4	1	1	3	5	.312	129	114
Innings 7-9	9	8.2	2	2.08	39	39	2	13	2	0	1	0	0	0	10		.333	.333	.462	.795	18	0	0	0	0	0	0	.429	127	12

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
1st PA in G, as SP	32	287	265	25	58	13	0	8			18	69	3.83	.219	.276	.359	.635	95	5	3	1	0	0	0	.266	82	75
2nd PA in G, as SP	32	286	264	26	59	9	2	10			16	68	4.25	.224	.277	.386	.664	102	3	4	1	1	0	4	.262	90	77
3rd PA in G, as SP	32	206	185	26	56	11	0	7			18	45	2.50	.303	.369	.476	.845	88	5	2	0	1	3	2	.366	143	117

This is just regular split data. I'm sure they have more comprehensive analysis to further support their internal decision. Like I've said already, I would have liked to see Berrios continue, but these plans are pre-determined by management and it's not unique to the Blue Jays.

 

[Da Cool Rula]

He already achieved success here, no reason to think he wouldn't have been able to do it again. We know that he's a very astute GM, no reason for that not to translate in multiple markets.

Anyway, could we at least agree that Atkins needs to go?

Lol the Kurtz exhale...

 

[Bjindaho]

Split	G	IP	ER	ERA	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
1st inning	32	32.0	14	3.94	132	122	14	30	6	0	4	1	1	9	31	3.44	.246	.303	.393	.696	48	2	1	0	0	0	0	.299	100	84
2nd inning	32	32.0	10	2.81	123	112	10	22	5	0	4	2	0	8	32	4.00	.196	.262	.348	.611	39	3	2	1	0	0	0	.237	75	69
3rd inning	32	32.0	5	1.41	121	114	6	20	4	0	1	3	0	4	29	7.25	.175	.215	.237	.452	27	1	2	0	1	0	1	.224	31	22
4th inning	32	32.0	19	5.34	134	124	21	32	7	1	4	1	0	8	29	3.63	.258	.306	.427	.733	53	2	1	0	1	1	1	.304	110	94
5th inning	31	29.1	15	4.60	129	112	14	31	1	0	6	2	1	15	23	1.53	.277	.367	.446	.814	50	3	1	1	0	2	1	.301	135	121
6th inning	27	23.2	12	4.56	104	94	11	25	8	1	5	3	2	8	30	3.75	.266	.337	.532	.868	50	2	2	0	0	0	3	.339	146	130
7th inning	9	8.0	2	2.25	35	35	2	11	2	0	1	0	0	0	9		.314	.314	.457	.771	16	0	0	0	0	0	0	.400	120	112
8th inning	1	0.2	0	0.00	4	4	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1		.500	.500	.500	1.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	.667	193	185
Innings 1-3	32	96.0	29	2.72	376	348	30	72	15	0	9	6	1	21	92	4.38	.207	.261	.328	.589	114	6	5	1	1	0	1	.254	70	59
Innings 4-6	32	85.0	46	4.87	367	330	46	88	16	2	15	6	3	31	82	2.65	.267	.336	.464	.800	153	7	4	1	1	3	5	.312	129	114
Innings 7-9	9	8.2	2	2.08	39	39	2	13	2	0	1	0	0	0	10		.333	.333	.462	.795	18	0	0	0	0	0	0	.429	127	12

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
1st PA in G, as SP	32	287	265	25	58	13	0	8			18	69	3.83	.219	.276	.359	.635	95	5	3	1	0	0	0	.266	82	75
2nd PA in G, as SP	32	286	264	26	59	9	2	10			16	68	4.25	.224	.277	.386	.664	102	3	4	1	1	0	4	.262	90	77
3rd PA in G, as SP	32	206	185	26	56	11	0	7			18	45	2.50	.303	.369	.476	.845	88	5	2	0	1	3	2	.366	143	117

Yes, we had a guy up in the 2nd (when he's good), the 3rd (his literal best inning), and the 4th (when he's still good). Those numbers and what the Jays did do not go together.

 

[Da Cool Rula]

But AA added a shitload of talent to that team without touching those top prospects you'd mentioned, that's kinda the point. Why assume he couldn't have done that here a second time if given the autonomy?

Speaking out autonomy...that's part of the problem. Shapiro is the guy who controls the analytics department and they seem to have too firm of a grasp on this org.

On another baseball forum, a poster has a son who is a Harvard grad and interviewed for an analytics job with the Jays. He interviewed for hours - and directly with Shaprio. The guy said that the Jays analytics team was about 20 ivy league guys, and he didn't think that a single one of them had ever touched a baseball. That's a problem imo.

Nice post. Great insight thx fir sharing.

 

[Eyedea]

Yes, we had a guy up in the 2nd (when he's good), the 3rd (his literal best inning), and the 4th (when he's still good). Those numbers and what the Jays did do not go together.

They didn't pull him until he was at his most vulnerable point, and yes that's the 4th inning (highest ERA?) with the bottom half of the lineup up for the 2nd time (which was mostly lefties). There are further splits that indicate he struggles with a man on first and no out. This is just public info we have available to us, not the trackman data they have at their disposal.

 

[DuklaNation]

Acuna was out for 2021 with an ACL tear but that's beside the point. The pre-game strategy I referenced was pulling Ian Anderson after 5 no hit innings in game 3 of the World Series. The pre-game strategy was to give him at most two turns through the lineup. He managed to do that over 5 innings and the Braves were up just 1-0.

Anderson wasn't pulled after 3 innings, 47 pitches. That start, 5 innings, he had maybe 1 more inning left. That's not comparable. If I have a better offense, my entire strategy changes.

 

[Suntouchable13]

But AA added a shitload of talent to that team without touching those top prospects you'd mentioned, that's kinda the point. Why assume he couldn't have done that here a second time if given the autonomy?

Speaking out autonomy...that's part of the problem. Shapiro is the guy who controls the analytics department and they seem to have too firm of a grasp on this org.

On another baseball forum, a poster has a son who is a Harvard grad and interviewed for an analytics job with the Jays. He interviewed for hours - and directly with Shaprio. The guy said that the Jays analytics team was about 20 ivy league guys, and he didn't think that a single one of them had ever touched a baseball. That's a problem imo.

For some reason I imagine all of them look like Jonah Hill’s character from Moneyball, Peter Brand.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Desclafani, Syndergard, musgrove to name a few that were/are good/great mlb players.

The Dickey trade was a disaster but none of those prospects you mentioned were traded the year we "went for it," the year Shapiro reportedly scolded AA.

 

[Eyedea]

Anderson wasn't pulled after 3 innings, 47 pitches. That start, 5 innings, he had maybe 1 more inning left. That's not comparable. If I have a better offense, my entire strategy changes.

5 innings, 70 pitches, no hit ball, up 1-0 (final score 2-0)? I don't understand how having a better offense changes that strategy. If you had a better offense you'd probably keep him in longer for a chance at history. The entire point is to have the pitching put as many 0s up as possible. Basic analytics have driven the point home that the more a team faces a pitcher, the more they get used to them. This is why teams rarely let an SP go more than 6 nowadays, and its becoming even shorter in the postseason.

 

[Bjindaho]

5 innings, 70 pitches, no hit ball, up 1-0 (final score 2-0)? I don't understand how having a better offense changes that strategy. If you had a better offense you'd probably keep him in longer for a chance at history. The entire point is to have the pitching put as many 0s up as possible. Basic analytics have driven the point home that the more a team faces a pitcher, the more they get used to them. This is why teams rarely let an SP go more than 6 nowadays, and its becoming even shorter in the postseason.

And again, this seems to be based on faulty numbers.

For example, if you are facing an opponent for the 3rd time in the 7th inning, that isn't the same thing as the 3rd time in the 4th or 5th inning (stats when facing them later would allow you to see how the pitcher does when he is actually pitching well).

 

[Da Cool Rula]

[Twitter]https://linksharing.samsungcloud.com/ikcq9YIuFmjr[/Twitter]

 

[Kurtz]

But the analytics don't support those decisions. They were based on people who can't math.

It's a room full of fresh ivy league grads in I'm assuming quant fields. They can math with the best of them, far better than us.

What they apparently can't do is apply real-time context on the fly and adapt. Berrios pitching the game of his life is I guess not something they would have built into their reports. This is something the manager should have seen and should have had the autonomy to adjust to on the fly, but evidently he lacked said autonomy.

From management's perspective, the upside of hiring a rookie manager is that he'll do exactly what you tell him to do or he won't have a career. But in this case that was also the downside.

 

[Bjindaho]

It's a room full of fresh ivy league grads in I'm assuming quant fields. They can math with the best of them, far better than us.

What they apparently can't do is apply real-time context on the fly and adapt. Berrios pitching the game of his life is I guess not something they would have built into their reports. This is something the manager should have seen and should have had the autonomy to adjust to on the fly, but evidently he lacked said autonomy.

From management's perspective, the upside of hiring a rookie manager is that he'll do exactly what you tell him to do or he won't have a career. But in this case that was also the downside.

We've been seeing year after year that this is not what they are doing.

They are supplying mountains of data, which allows management to basically justify anything (like pulling a good starter early or putting Richards on the playoff roster or calling up whatshisface). If you have enough data, you will always be able to argue either side because every situation is probabilistic, not definitive.

 

[Kurtz]

We've been seeing year after year that this is not what they are doing.

They are supplying mountains of data, which allows management to basically justify anything (like pulling a good starter early or putting Richards on the playoff roster or calling up whatshisface). If you have enough data, you will always be able to argue either side because every situation is probabilistic, not definitive.

I've worked in an analytics field long enough to know that what you've said is generally true - ie give me a robust dataset and I can almost always twist the conclusions it in a way that will appeal to the client or management. There are lies, damned lies, and statistics, after all.

But that doesn't seem to be applicable in this instance. Schneider said that they had a couple of plans laid out. It just doesn't sound like one of those plan options was "If he's pitching the game of his life and he's at 47 pitches, leave him the f*** alone".

 

[Cloned]

I mean, the issues seem pretty obvious, and they aren't 'everything'.

We had some of the best pitching and defense in baseball and finished with 89 wins. This was a pretty good team that had some unexpected struggles at the plate.

They probably need to re-structure their hitting coaching. They need to figure out what went wrong with Guerrero and Kirk (and Manoah). They probably need to acquire another big bat this summer. And they need to hold someone accountable for the pitching decision that was made yesterday, and it doesn't sound like that was Schneider.

___________

As for Schneider :

Fans are going to complain no matter who the manager is. There are literally dozens of decisions every night for 162 games that fans can micro-analyze and if 29 of 30 decisions in a game make sense but in the 30th decision the manager chooses something with a 26% probability of working over something with a 28% probability of working because he's also trying to manage a clubhouse and get some playing time for a player who has been sitting ... fans at home playing video games will freak out that he's the STUPIDEST MANAGER EVER! and needs to be fired immediately. And it's like this for literally every MLB team.

Generally speaking, what I saw from Schneider was the most sensible managing I've seen from this team in a long time. It's miles better than the Charlie Montoyo insanity, and before that we had Gibbons for ages who was an old-school manager that I liked but who managed like Mr. Burns when it came to understanding things like reverse splits.

Until yesterday, the handling of the pitching staff and defense was consistently spot on. The only real big complaints fans had were that he was playing veteran star players like Chapman/Merrifield too much when they were slumping ... but good luck finding a manager/coach in any sport that doesn't trust his veteran players and give them a lot of rope, because that person doesn't exist.

Schneider's one weakness is that he's still a young manager and on occasion over-managed and galaxy-brained a situation, but he'll surely learn from that. He's one of the best young managers in MLB and I have zero problems bringing him back.

People keep saying unexpected struggles at the plate. Some people expected it, predicted it.

And then Atkins sat back the entire season without doing a single thing about it. Except calling up the young guys…

…who Schneider didn’t play at all down the stretch and into the playoffs. lol.

What a clusterf*** of a season.