Blue Jays GDT: 2023 v13 | **WILDCARD SERIES GAME 2** Wed, Oct 4 | @ Min | 4:30pm ET/1:30pm PT | Berrios vs Gray

[CabanaBoy5]

This team is well-known for boneheaded moves. The Guasman and Berrios lifting fiascos and the trading of your best prospect for Varsho ranking right up there. I do not trust Atkins to make the moves that will improve this offence. Having to use Biggio as your 5th hitter in the lineup in an elimination game? A career .229 BA and a career OPS of .734? And the point is that there was no one else who should have batted 5th in that game. Sad and pathetic roster construction.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

Their record vs AL East sucked. Boost the number of games and remove their own division and they'd be maybe .500 or less probably around Boston level.

Don't cherry pick data. That's Jays analytics stuff.

It's not like the Twins completely dominated against their own division. 29-23 is good but not great given the competition. Jays went 22-10 vs the Central. Jays beat up on bad teams but struggled against good teams. What does that say about them?

Anyway, not sure why you think the Twins are a mediocre team when the data suggests otherwise.

 

[LaP]

This team is well-known for boneheaded moves. The Guasman and Berrios lifting fiascos and the trading of your best prospect for Varsho ranking right up there. I do not trust Atkins to make the moves that will improve this offence. Having to use Biggio as your 5th hitter in the lineup in an elimination game? A career .229 BA and a career OPS of .734? And the point is that there was no one else who should have batted 5th in that game. Sad and pathetic roster construction.

Tbh Merrifield should have played at 2nd base. He's the guy with the most speed in the team and was 4th for RBI. Except for the last month or so he was among the most clutch hitters in the team. You usually don't remove a vet having a good season from the lineup because he has a bad sequence and replace him by a career bench player on a good sequence. It would be like the Leafs replacing Bertuzzi having a 25 goals and 50 points season by Kampf in the lineup because Bertuzzi struggled in the last 15 games and Kampf was better than usual in those games. Would not make any sense.

 

[DuklaNation]

It's not like the Twins completely dominated against their own division. 29-23 is good but not great given the competition. Jays went 22-10 vs the Central. Jays beat up on bad teams but struggled against good teams. What does that say about them?

Anyway, not sure why you think the Twins are a mediocre team when the data suggests otherwise.

Because the data is skewed towards competition. And that variable is not consistent division to division nor is it evenly distributed across all teams for that matter (unless the season was 1000 games maybe). Again, this is Jays analytics stuff. Twins had solid pitching for a short game series which benefited them vs a weak offense.

 

[hoglund]

It's not like the Twins completely dominated against their own division. 29-23 is good but not great given the competition. Jays went 22-10 vs the Central. Jays beat up on bad teams but struggled against good teams. What does that say about them?

Anyway, not sure why you think the Twins are a mediocre team when the data suggests otherwise.

Minnesota were 2 games behind the Bluejays in wins, so they're about the same and with the schedule being more balanced it is more comparable than previous years.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Phillips on analytics: ‘It’s not numbers that play the game, it’s people that play the game’

TSN

October 4, 2023

TSN Baseball Insider Steve Phillips joins SC with Jay Onrait to share his opinion on the Blue Jays’ using analytics to drive decisions, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. being picked off with two runners on, and who’s to blame for the postseason disappointment.

 

[MS]

It is not that simple .. Jays have an excellent collection of middling/good starters (I am told this from US baseball guys from my wife's family who played college and mlb pro ball) so much so that they have 4 guys any of whom could have started and/or played any playoffs games this year with similar results .. with Manoah they had a potential ace who has amazing stuff but he got fat over da summer .. but this is not how MLB clubs draft and sign up a starting rotation .. playoff teams have 2 top of rotation starters who play 1st 2 games and best of those playoff teams have proven aces who win those games by force by themselves .. then 3 thru 5 are average/weak starters who they expect to lose the 3rd game or else they run out there relievers in that game .. Jays have a great regular season starter lineup but it won't work in playoffs ever which we have seen past 4 years .. if nothing changes then expect to see da same old same old every year going forward .. major changes need to occur if team wants to have playoff success .. GM and mgr need to go ASAP .. then Manoah and Fathy and Kirk all need to be told to come to camp next spring without any guts hanging out of their jerseys so lose 50+ lbs each .. they need to be told they will be weight managed all winter and all season long daily .. and they need to be threatened and told thy will not take da field in mlb camp if they are out of shape period .. they can start year in minors .. if they don't give a sh*t like many here think then trade them ASAP and let another team deal with immaturity and child like behavior because they are hurting team here .. these dudes think they are da cats meow and they need to be told they are 1 step from working at a gas station .. it will take a NEW MGMT culture .. da Wall Streeter from Houston is a real hard *ss and would make a great hire .. no BS from him .. although Toronto is such a soft liberal place he probably won't make it here long term

Gausman is literally one of the most dominant top-of-the-rotation starters in MLB over the past 3 years and is statistically pretty much on par with Gerrit Cole. Led the AL in strikeouts, 3rd straight year under a 3.00 FIP, will be top-5 in Cy Young voting.

If Manoah was his 2021-22 self, that theoretically should have been one of the best 1-2 punches in MLB with Bassitt as one of the best #3 starters and Berrios one of the best #4s. But who knows if Manoah will rebound, or even if he'll play for the team again following his circus act at the end of the year.

 

[Eyedea]

Tbh Merrifield should have played at 2nd base. He's the guy with the most speed in the team and was 4th for RBI. Except for the last month or so he was among the most clutch hitters in the team. You usually don't remove a vet having a good season from the lineup because he has a bad sequence and replace him by a career bench player on a good sequence. It would be like the Leafs replacing Bertuzzi having a 25 goals and 50 points season by Kampf in the lineup because Bertuzzi struggled in the last 15 games and Kampf was better than usual in those games. Would not make any sense.

Whit had two months of play that carried his overall season's numbers whereas Biggio was well above average from May onward. Biggio might not have had a month like Whit's July but there was zero reason for Whit starting over him.

 

[MS]

maybe don't celebrate losing into a wild card spot like you just won the championship.

The Phillies did exactly the same thing last year and went to the World Series.

Literally every team does this. It's standard behavior and normal baseball culture. I think it's silly and a bit cringe but it isn't the cause of anything more than that. Just like the HR jacket wasn't the problem and Teoscar's sunflower seeds weren't the problem.

Canadian fans are just extra triggered by it because it would be so against NHL/hockey culture to celebrate like that for clinching 7th place in the conference.

 

[Stephen]

The Phillies did exactly the same thing last year and went to the World Series.

Literally every team does this. It's standard behavior and normal baseball culture. I think it's silly and a bit cringe but it isn't the cause of anything more than that. Just like the HR jacket wasn't the problem and Teoscar's sunflower seeds weren't the problem.

Canadian fans are just extra triggered by it because it would be so against NHL/hockey culture to celebrate like that for clinching 7th place in the conference.

Yeah I think Canadian fans tend to imprint a lot of discipline/values derived from a mythological working class culture into their sports watching.

Hockey is the most obvious example and the carryover to baseball isn’t that natural of a fit.

But on the other hand people tend not to like teams that come across as unserious and immature and then face plant when it matters. The two things may not be connected but it’s still a turnoff.

 

[MS]

I didn’t say everything is bad. I said you can’t assume that everything is good with this group because they haven’t done anything to deserve that benefit of the doubt. Thus every move they make needs to be examined with a healthy dose of skepticism.

I mean, the issues seem pretty obvious, and they aren't 'everything'.

We had some of the best pitching and defense in baseball and finished with 89 wins. This was a pretty good team that had some unexpected struggles at the plate.

They probably need to re-structure their hitting coaching. They need to figure out what went wrong with Guerrero and Kirk (and Manoah). They probably need to acquire another big bat this summer. And they need to hold someone accountable for the pitching decision that was made yesterday, and it doesn't sound like that was Schneider.

___________

As for Schneider :

Fans are going to complain no matter who the manager is. There are literally dozens of decisions every night for 162 games that fans can micro-analyze and if 29 of 30 decisions in a game make sense but in the 30th decision the manager chooses something with a 26% probability of working over something with a 28% probability of working because he's also trying to manage a clubhouse and get some playing time for a player who has been sitting ... fans at home playing video games will freak out that he's the STUPIDEST MANAGER EVER! and needs to be fired immediately. And it's like this for literally every MLB team.

Generally speaking, what I saw from Schneider was the most sensible managing I've seen from this team in a long time. It's miles better than the Charlie Montoyo insanity, and before that we had Gibbons for ages who was an old-school manager that I liked but who managed like Mr. Burns when it came to understanding things like reverse splits.

Until yesterday, the handling of the pitching staff and defense was consistently spot on. The only real big complaints fans had were that he was playing veteran star players like Chapman/Merrifield too much when they were slumping ... but good luck finding a manager/coach in any sport that doesn't trust his veteran players and give them a lot of rope, because that person doesn't exist.

Schneider's one weakness is that he's still a young manager and on occasion over-managed and galaxy-brained a situation, but he'll surely learn from that. He's one of the best young managers in MLB and I have zero problems bringing him back.

 

[mikeyz]

When I agree wholeheartedly with Sid Seixeiro on something, you know it was a catastrophic f*** up. LMFAO.

 

[fahad203]

When I agree wholeheartedly with Sid Seixeiro on something, you know it was a catastrophic f*** up. LMFAO.

I am so tired of these modern coaches who over rely on numbers so they can always deflect it on something else
"It wasn't my decision, the numbers says so"

But that being said, coaches don't play the game
Back to back years this team failed to show up when it mattered most.

Pitchers did everything they could.

 

[MS]

Yeah I think Canadian fans tend to imprint a lot of discipline/values derived from a mythological working class culture into their sports watching.

Hockey is the most obvious example and the carryover to baseball isn’t that natural of a fit.

But on the other hand people tend not to like teams that come across as unserious and immature and then face plant when it matters. The two things may not be connected but it’s still a turnoff.

Yeah, it's probably not a coincidence that Canadian MLB fans who grew up on Don Cherry thinking and who idolize players like Captain Serious Jonathan Toews as their athlete ideal get extra triggered by things that go against this but are perfectly culturally normal in another sport.

The reaction to the HR jacket was absolutely insane. Every single other MLB team was doing something like this (and the vaunted Orioles do something much sillier) and the Jays were the only team that had to stop because fans got upset about players having fun. And this year's HR jacket is now that the players had a totally standard party, and the expectation appears to again be that they should be the only team not celebrating or having fun.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I vote for ChatGPT to be our next manager. Can't be any worse.

 

[EpochLink]

When I agree wholeheartedly with Sid Seixeiro on something, you know it was a catastrophic f*** up. LMFAO.

f*** this guy, his opinions are much a chocolate covered onion.

Long-time Toronto Blue Jays coach Luis Rivera retiring

Luis Rivera, a member of the Toronto Blue Jays coaching staff since the 2011 season, is retiring, leaving the club with an opening for a third base and infield coach.

www.sportsnet.ca

Not a bad start to the offseason.

That hitting coach needs to be fired, this team couldn’t hit for shit.

 

[hoglund]

I'd say bring back Gibby.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

What would you guys think of a trade of Vladdy to SD for one of their 4 shortstops? Seong-Kim + prospects then move Bichette to 3B or 2B?

 

[Kurtz]

What would you guys think of a trade of Vladdy to SD for one of their 4 shortstops? Seong-Kim + prospects then move Bichette to 3B or 2B?

Bo would hate that.

SD said that they'll be cutting payroll this off-season. I think they might move Soto. Something around Vlad for Soto would make some sense.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Bo would hate that.

SD said that they'll be cutting payroll this off-season. I think they might move Soto. Something around Vlad for Soto would make some sense.

What do the Angels have that we could use? They might want Vladdy for the nostalgia and Arte Moreno is always making bonehead moves that help other teams (e.g., Vernon Wells trade).

 

[Kurtz]

What do the Angels have that we could use? They might want Vladdy for the nostalgia and Arte Moreno is always making bonehead moves that help other teams (e.g., Vernon Wells trade).

Funny you say that, because once they lose Ohtani, there's not much sense in them hanging onto Trout.

I doubt that that scumbag Edward Rogers would approve taking on Trout's remaining $200m+, but that's the kind of acquisition that would turn around the fan sentiment around this team in a hurry.

I know he's been super injury prone lately, but you take him out of CF and put him in a corner and you may have a similar effect to Springer injury-wise.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Funny you say that, because once they lose Ohtani, there's not much sense in them hanging onto Trout.

I doubt that that scumbag Edward Rogers would approve taking on Trout's remaining $200m+, but that's the kind of acquisition that would turn around the fan sentiment around this team in a hurry.

I know he's been super injury prone lately, but you take him out of CF and put him in a corner and you may have a similar effect to Springer injury-wise.

Well, if we could get them to eat a significant portion of that I'd have some interest.

 

[Stephen]

I am so tired of these modern coaches who over rely on numbers so they can always deflect it on something else
"It wasn't my decision, the numbers says so"

But that being said, coaches don't play the game
Back to back years this team failed to show up when it mattered most.

Pitchers did everything they could.

My reaction to all of this is that analytics in any sport should be to inform and optimize decisions but not become the sideshow itself. When decisions start looking like you’re following the GPS into the lake, we have a problem. And it’s not even data. It’s people making horrible decisions and refusing to make the judgement calls they’re paid to make.

 

[Eyedea]

Funny you say that, because once they lose Ohtani, there's not much sense in them hanging onto Trout.

I doubt that that scumbag Edward Rogers would approve taking on Trout's remaining $200m+, but that's the kind of acquisition that would turn around the fan sentiment around this team in a hurry.

I know he's been super injury prone lately, but you take him out of CF and put him in a corner and you may have a similar effect to Springer injury-wise.

Not sure how much interest they’d have with Schanuel being their 1B now.

 

[leafsfan2point0]

Schneider was decent for the season. Much.. Much better than Montoya. He didn’t make Vladdy F*** up on the bases or tell the team to be terrible in clutch situations. The one that needs to go IMO is Shatkins.