Blue Jays GDT: 2023 v13 | **WILDCARD SERIES GAME 2** Wed, Oct 4 | @ Min | 4:30pm ET/1:30pm PT | Berrios vs Gray

Who you got?


  • Total voters
    152
  • Poll closed .

Kurtz

Registered User
Jul 17, 2005
10,456
7,610
Interesting that Vegas has this series as a complete toss-up, but game 1 Minny is a very slight favourite.
 

phillipmike

Registered User
Oct 27, 2009
12,770
8,697
Road shouldn’t be an issue. Jays score more runs on the road than at home.

We also give up more runs on the road too.

Runs scored per game:
Home: 4.22
Away: 4.99

Runs against per game:

Home: 4.07
Away: 4.21

Jays are better on the road but the pitchers we are starting are worse on the road.

PitcherHome ERARoad ERA
Kevin Gausman3.073.27
Jose Berrios3.303.97
Chris Bassitt2.864.50

Gausman's numbers are insignificant but doesnt bode well for us that the Twins have something on him this year where they were laying off his splitter. Luckily we won both games.

The good thing is Hicks, Cabrera, Swanson, Green and Mayza are all better on the Road. Romano, Richards and Garcia are better at home. Though Romano's splits arent ridiculous.
 

tmlms13

Registered User
Apr 11, 2012
7,039
4,742
Waterloo, Ontario
To me the starters really should be

Gausman
Kikuchi
Bassitt

Twins offense is 5th in MLB (using OPS) vs Righties. And 19th vs Lefties.

Kikuchi is one of the best pitchers vs LHB in MLB,

If you aren't going to use him now when it creates the biggest matchup advantage you are going to find then why even have him on the roster?

Actually Maybe Berrios over Bassitt for Game 3 but call it an audible depending on games 1 and 2
 
Last edited:

Eyedea

The Legend Continues
Jan 29, 2012
27,818
3,674
Toronto, Ontario
Minny is also a ridiculously good hitting team at home. I think Correa and Kirilloff are the only guys that fare better on the road for them.

If the Jays can just get out in front early, maybe that'll put pressure on the Twins offence and get them to start chasing out of the zone.
 

theaub

34-38-61-10-13-15
Nov 21, 2008
18,886
1,977
Toronto
Plenty of opportunities to get creative to give Kikuchi some bulk innings this series. Berrios certainly isn't seeing anyone the third time through the order...
 
  • Like
Reactions: Discoverer

Eyedea

The Legend Continues
Jan 29, 2012
27,818
3,674
Toronto, Ontario
1Edouard Julien2B
2Jorge Polanco3B
3Royce LewisDH
4Max KeplerRF
5Alex Kirilloff1B
6Carlos CorreaSS
7Ryan JeffersC
8Matt WallnerLF
9Michael A. TaylorCF
SPPablo LopezRHP

Twins get Lewis in at DH which also means Julien plays the field (2B), and a byproduct of that is Polanco playing 3B. Looks good for us as this is definitely not their best defensive setup. Their biggest base stealing threat is also on the bench so likely not a lot of running on Kirk/Gausman today.
 

tmlms13

Registered User
Apr 11, 2012
7,039
4,742
Waterloo, Ontario
We also give up more runs on the road too.

Runs scored per game:
Home: 4.22
Away: 4.99

Runs against per game:

Home: 4.07
Away: 4.21

Jays are better on the road but the pitchers we are starting are worse on the road.

PitcherHome ERARoad ERA
Kevin Gausman3.073.27
Jose Berrios3.303.97
Chris Bassitt2.864.50

Gausman's numbers are insignificant but doesnt bode well for us that the Twins have something on him this year where they were laying off his splitter. Luckily we won both games.

The good thing is Hicks, Cabrera, Swanson, Green and Mayza are all better on the Road. Romano, Richards and Garcia are better at home. Though Romano's splits arent ridiculous.

FTR Teams give up more runs on the road i.e. 6 teams have a road ERA under 4.00.... 14 teams have a home ERA under 4.00.

Jays are #7 in MLB in home ERA 3.68
Jays are #3 in MLB in road ERA, 3.88

That favours the Jays, they minimize the expected rise in giving up more runs on the road. i know era isn't a great stat but I'm thinking about relative to the rest of MLB teams' splits.

---
Jays offense at home, 23rd in MLB
Jays offense on the road, 7th in MLB

It's called home field advantage for a reason. And the Jays are one of the best if not the best at minimizing that advantage.
 

tmlms13

Registered User
Apr 11, 2012
7,039
4,742
Waterloo, Ontario
That changed for this year.

I have to admit that it is sometimes fun (cringy) to hear Americans talk about Toronto and pander. Or try to make some hockey reference and completely embarrass themselves.

I've heard stuff like Canada rallies around the last remaining team in the playoffs no matter who it is.... lol nope, I actively cheer against them because the only Canadian team I want to see win the Cup is my own.
 

Dr.Funk

Registered User
Jul 2, 2004
20,060
2,729
Are we, or do we get the US broadcast because the have exclusive rights and Dan and Buck get shoved to Radio with Wilner.
Wilner was fired a few years ago.

Ben Wagner does radio

But yes we get Dan and Buck all postseason long as far as the Jays go atleast.
 

tmlms13

Registered User
Apr 11, 2012
7,039
4,742
Waterloo, Ontario
Here's a nugget from ESPN's Bradford Doolittle quality analysis of the series

The Twins' offense has been better than Toronto's in recent weeks, which is not something you'd guess just looking at the names of who has been available.

When and if it goes to the bullpen, I really like the way Minnesota's current pecking order stacks up, with Chris Paddack back on the mound, Kenta Maeda able to work the middle innings and, of course, Jhoan Duran waiting at the end.

Where do I sign up for a job if that is the stuff the get paid to write.
 

Eyedea

The Legend Continues
Jan 29, 2012
27,818
3,674
Toronto, Ontario
Here's a nugget from ESPN's Bradford Doolittle quality analysis of the series





Where do I sign up for a job if that is the stuff the get paid to write.

He's just naming random names too. Maeda and Paddack aren't the names to fear in that bullpen. It's former Jay, Brock Stewart, and the legendary Kody Funderburk.
 

rojac

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Apr 5, 2007
13,366
3,207
Waterloo, ON
I have to admit that it is sometimes fun (cringy) to hear Americans talk about Toronto and pander. Or try to make some hockey reference and completely embarrass themselves.

I've heard stuff like Canada rallies around the last remaining team in the playoffs no matter who it is.... lol nope, I actively cheer against them because the only Canadian team I want to see win the Cup is my own.
To be honest, the rallying around the last Canadian NHL team standing is definitely a thing. It's not all Canadian hockey fans, but it's a sizeable faction. Personally, I'm with you.
 

Ad

Ad

Ad