Blue Jays GDT: 2023 v13 | **WILDCARD SERIES GAME 2** Wed, Oct 4 | @ Min | 4:30pm ET/1:30pm PT | Berrios vs Gray

[jetsforever]

The WC roster is just for this round and can be different from the DS roster right?

 

[Dr.Funk]

The WC roster is just for this round and can be different from the DS roster right?

Correct

 

[Eyedea]

Yeah, I don't think one bad start against the Twins 4 months ago should override everything he's done this year.

It's more so the home/away splits on top of his susceptibility to left handed dominant lineups.

 

[Kurtz]

Interesting that Vegas has this series as a complete toss-up, but game 1 Minny is a very slight favourite.

 

[phillipmike]

Road shouldn’t be an issue. Jays score more runs on the road than at home.

We also give up more runs on the road too.

Runs scored per game:
Home: 4.22
Away: 4.99

Runs against per game:
Home: 4.07
Away: 4.21

Jays are better on the road but the pitchers we are starting are worse on the road.

Pitcher	Home ERA	Road ERA
Kevin Gausman	3.07	3.27
Jose Berrios	3.30	3.97
Chris Bassitt	2.86	4.50

Gausman's numbers are insignificant but doesnt bode well for us that the Twins have something on him this year where they were laying off his splitter. Luckily we won both games.

The good thing is Hicks, Cabrera, Swanson, Green and Mayza are all better on the Road. Romano, Richards and Garcia are better at home. Though Romano's splits arent ridiculous.

 

[tmlms13]

To me the starters really should be

Gausman
Kikuchi
Bassitt

Twins offense is 5th in MLB (using OPS) vs Righties. And 19th vs Lefties.

Kikuchi is one of the best pitchers vs LHB in MLB,

If you aren't going to use him now when it creates the biggest matchup advantage you are going to find then why even have him on the roster?

Actually Maybe Berrios over Bassitt for Game 3 but call it an audible depending on games 1 and 2

 

[Eyedea]

Minny is also a ridiculously good hitting team at home. I think Correa and Kirilloff are the only guys that fare better on the road for them.

If the Jays can just get out in front early, maybe that'll put pressure on the Twins offence and get them to start chasing out of the zone.

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

Can I ask who the Jays have doing the play by play/broadcasting whatever?

 

[theaub]

Plenty of opportunities to get creative to give Kikuchi some bulk innings this series. Berrios certainly isn't seeing anyone the third time through the order...

 

[Dr.Funk]

Can I ask who the Jays have doing the play by play/broadcasting whatever?

Dan and Buck

 

[Eyedea]

1	Edouard Julien	2B
2	Jorge Polanco	3B
3	Royce Lewis	DH
4	Max Kepler	RF
5	Alex Kirilloff	1B
6	Carlos Correa	SS
7	Ryan Jeffers	C
8	Matt Wallner	LF
9	Michael A. Taylor	CF
SP	Pablo Lopez	RHP

Twins get Lewis in at DH which also means Julien plays the field (2B), and a byproduct of that is Polanco playing 3B. Looks good for us as this is definitely not their best defensive setup. Their biggest base stealing threat is also on the bench so likely not a lot of running on Kirk/Gausman today.

 

[tmlms13]

We also give up more runs on the road too.

Runs scored per game:
Home: 4.22
Away: 4.99

Runs against per game:
Home: 4.07
Away: 4.21

Jays are better on the road but the pitchers we are starting are worse on the road.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Pitcher[/TD]
[TD]Home ERA[/TD]
[TD]Road ERA[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kevin Gausman[/TD]
[TD]3.07[/TD]
[TD]3.27[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jose Berrios[/TD]
[TD]3.30[/TD]
[TD]3.97[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Chris Bassitt[/TD]
[TD]2.86[/TD]
[TD]4.50[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Gausman's numbers are insignificant but doesnt bode well for us that the Twins have something on him this year where they were laying off his splitter. Luckily we won both games.

The good thing is Hicks, Cabrera, Swanson, Green and Mayza are all better on the Road. Romano, Richards and Garcia are better at home. Though Romano's splits arent ridiculous.

FTR Teams give up more runs on the road i.e. 6 teams have a road ERA under 4.00.... 14 teams have a home ERA under 4.00.

Jays are #7 in MLB in home ERA 3.68
Jays are #3 in MLB in road ERA, 3.88

That favours the Jays, they minimize the expected rise in giving up more runs on the road. i know era isn't a great stat but I'm thinking about relative to the rest of MLB teams' splits.

---
Jays offense at home, 23rd in MLB
Jays offense on the road, 7th in MLB

It's called home field advantage for a reason. And the Jays are one of the best if not the best at minimizing that advantage.

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

Dan and Buck

Awesome!

I was scared to assume Buck was still there. Absolute legend! Glad he's still going. I think I'll enjoy this game.

 

[tmlms13]

Dan and Buck

Are we, or do we get the US broadcast because the have exclusive rights and Dan and Buck get shoved to Radio with Wilner.

 

[Bjindaho]

Are we, or do we get the US broadcast because the have exclusive rights and Dan and Buck get shoved to Radio with Wilner.

That changed for this year.

 

[tmlms13]

That changed for this year.

I have to admit that it is sometimes fun (cringy) to hear Americans talk about Toronto and pander. Or try to make some hockey reference and completely embarrass themselves.

I've heard stuff like Canada rallies around the last remaining team in the playoffs no matter who it is.... lol nope, I actively cheer against them because the only Canadian team I want to see win the Cup is my own.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

For those who will get the ESPN broadcast, they are giving us Michael Kay (good) and A-Rod (bad)

 

[mikeyz]

It was so long ago that Pat Borders played in that game for the Twins.

What year was that? 04?

 

[Dr.Funk]

Are we, or do we get the US broadcast because the have exclusive rights and Dan and Buck get shoved to Radio with Wilner.

Wilner was fired a few years ago.

Ben Wagner does radio

But yes we get Dan and Buck all postseason long as far as the Jays go atleast.

 

[tmlms13]

Here's a nugget from ESPN's Bradford Doolittle quality analysis of the series

The Twins' offense has been better than Toronto's in recent weeks, which is not something you'd guess just looking at the names of who has been available.

When and if it goes to the bullpen, I really like the way Minnesota's current pecking order stacks up, with Chris Paddack back on the mound, Kenta Maeda able to work the middle innings and, of course, Jhoan Duran waiting at the end.

Where do I sign up for a job if that is the stuff the get paid to write.

 

[Dr.Funk]

 

[Eyedea]

Here's a nugget from ESPN's Bradford Doolittle quality analysis of the series





Where do I sign up for a job if that is the stuff the get paid to write.

He's just naming random names too. Maeda and Paddack aren't the names to fear in that bullpen. It's former Jay, Brock Stewart, and the legendary Kody Funderburk.

 

[rojac]

That changed for this year.

it changed last year. But given that the Jays postseason lasted only 2 games, I can see how one might forget.

 

[LaP]

and the legendary Kody Funderburk.

Two letters away from the best name in baseball history

 

[rojac]

I have to admit that it is sometimes fun (cringy) to hear Americans talk about Toronto and pander. Or try to make some hockey reference and completely embarrass themselves.

I've heard stuff like Canada rallies around the last remaining team in the playoffs no matter who it is.... lol nope, I actively cheer against them because the only Canadian team I want to see win the Cup is my own.

To be honest, the rallying around the last Canadian NHL team standing is definitely a thing. It's not all Canadian hockey fans, but it's a sizeable faction. Personally, I'm with you.