Last year i expected the Jays to beat the Mariners easily and they got swept. I've learned my lesson. I can actually enjoy it now because i go in with no expectations - probably that they will lose, so if we win, i will be pleasantly surprised.
Nonetheless, the Twins are no slouch, they are better than us in all categories except defense.
Starters:
Twins 12 fWAR (Lopez, Gray, and Ryan)
Toronto: 10.9 fWAR (Gausman, Berrios and Bassitt)
I kept out Maeda, Ober, Kikuchi and Ryu.
Bullpen:
Twins 7 fWAR (Jax, Pagan, Dhuran, Stewart, Funderburk, and Varland)
Toronto: 5.3 fWAR (Mayza, Romano, Garicia, Swanson, Cabrera, Green and Hicks)
wRC+:
Twins 109
Toronto: 107
DRS:
Twins: 33
Toronto: 82
The only edge the Jays have are in;
-Defense
-Twins also have an 18 game playoff losing streak - so the Jays may have a mental edge. In addition, the Jays were battle tested all season playing against tougher competition. The Twins have been coasting since August.
However, the Twins own Gausman over the last few years and his splitter has been hit hard by them. Not to mention all their lefties in their lineup which is Bassistt's kryptonite along with playing on the road.
All things point towards a Twins series win quite easily. So go in thinking that and if the Jays win, you will be pleasantly surprised.