Blue Jays GDT: 2023 v11 | Wed, Sept 21 | @ NYY | 7:00pm ET/4:00pm PT | Berrios vs Cole

[ChuckNorris4Cup]

Hernandez = avg .267, RBI 88, HR 25
Gurriel Jr. = avg .260, RBI 74, HR 23
Moreno = avg .279, RBI 43, HR 7

Totals = avg .269, RBI 205, HR 55

Varsho = avg .217, RBI 51, HR 16
Belt = avg .251, RBI 38, HR 16
Kiermaier = avg .273, RBI 34, HR 8

Totals = avg .247, RBI 123, HR 40

That difference of 82 RBI and 15 HR really factors in when you need more runs to win, losing that much offense for defense will put your team where it is today.

 

[MS]

It's funny looking back at the reactions to anyone who expressed even minor reservations about the team's inconsistent performance. My favorite quote:

"[T]he team is more likely to be in the playoffs than not right now."

I mean, they're still at 53% to make the playoffs.

This series has been absolutely bizarre. I figured the stadium would be packed and the players would be amped coming off a winning road trip having made big gains in the playoff picture with a playoff rival coming into town ... but the crowds have been tiny and the building a morgue, and the players just totally flat and useless.

People love blaming tiny decisions by the manager or what the front office has done but at some point it just has to come down to the players. This is a good team on paper and the veterans have just totally no-showed in this series. And I don't know what anyone but them can do about that.

 

[Ciao]

I can understand, it's always good to have a critical lens of the organization. Nobody is perfect in this org, not even Babe Schneider (who is as close to perfect as it comes right now).

But we're also witnessing a team that could potentially hit that 90 win mark again and still not make the playoffs. That would be another "successful season" (like 2021) that reaps no rewards. It's fair to say that there are big questions and decisions to be made during the offseason, but this is potentially an unprecedented result.

90+ win teams that did not make postseason since WC2+WC3 was added:

2022 - None
2021 - Jays (91) and Mariners (90)
2020 - None
2019 - Guardians (93)
2018 - Rays (90)
2017 - None
2016 - None
2015 - None
2014 - None
2013 - Rangers (91)
2012 - Rays (90)

The Blue Jays have had one period of time where they hit 90+ wins 3 years in a row ('91, '92, and '93). Obviously two of those culminated in the only championships the Jays have won, but for some to compare the current regime to Ricciardi seems distorted.

I wasn't around to witness the Gillick era, but it feels like some people here have completely forgotten just how bad this Jays team was after him. Even if they miss out this year, which would absolutely be disappointing, how does it stack up to 1987? Or even '88 and '90 for that matter? I'd rather they be in a race than suffering through the 20+ years of mediocrity again.

I certainly remember 1987 very, very well, and it really sucked.

The Blue Jays had 96 wins with seven games to play and lost all seven straight -- starting with the last game of a regular series against Detroit (no sweat -- they had already clinched that series and needed only a couple of wins in their next six games to clinch the pennant) -- then three straight losses against I think Milwaukee and then three straight losses -- including a 12-inning walk-off loss in Detroit.

If they had won even one of those games on the last weekend of the season against Detroit it would have forced a playoff between Toronto and Detroit. Instead, they stalled at 96 wins with seven straight season-ending losses and Detroit won the pennant with 98 wins.

It was biggest, most unimaginable heartbreaker ever.

The difference is that the '87 Jays were a team on the rise that the whole city believed in. It was beyond belief that they lost. There were no wild cards, and this was for the AL East pennant -- the whole enchilada that would bring them as favorites into the ALCS with the World Series only another step away.

The '87 Jay's were Gods in the City of Toronto -- and nothing at all like these dopes.

 

[Eyedea]

I certainly remember 1987 very, very well, and it really sucked.

The Blue Jays had 96 wins with seven games to play and lost all seven straight -- starting with the last game of a regular series against Detroit (no sweat -- they had already clinched that series and needed only a couple of wins in their next six games to clinch the pennant) -- then three straight losses against I think Milwaukee and then three straight losses -- including a 12-inning walk-off loss in Detroit.

If they had won even one of those games on the last weekend of the season against Detroit it would have forced a playoff between Toronto and Detroit. Instead, they stalled at 96 wins with seven straight season-ending losses and Detroit won the pennant with 98 wins.

It was biggest, most unimaginable heartbreaker ever.

The difference is that the '87 Jays were a team on the rise that the whole city believed in. It was beyond belief that they lost. There were no wild cards, and this was for the AL East pennant -- the whole enchilada that would bring them as favorites into the ALCS with the World Series only another step away.

The '87 Jay's were Gods in the City of Toronto -- and nothing at all like these dopes.

They weren’t a team on the rise though. They were well within their competitive window and followed that season with 87 (no playoffs), 89 (lost to As), and 86 (no playoffs). That 1990 season also culminated in another devastating end to the season dropping 6 of their last 8 to lose the division.

It took those years of heartbreak for “Stand” Pat Gillick to finally reconstruct the roster by acquiring Devo, Alomar, and Carter.

 

[Clark4Ever]

I know Vladdy and Springer have underachieved this season which is the primary reason for our lack of offensive production, but in retrospect, I think we would have been better off keeping Hernandez, Gurriel Jr. and Moreno.

 

[MS]

They weren’t a team on the rise though. They were well within their competitive window and followed that season with 87 (no playoffs), 89 (lost to As), and 86 (no playoffs). That 1990 season also culminated in another devastating end to the season dropping 6 of their last 8 to lose the division.

It took those years of heartbreak for “Stand” Pat Gillick to finally reconstruct the roster by acquiring Devo, Alomar, and Carter.

Yeah, what?

The 1987 Jays were in Year 5 of their competitive window (multiple years deeper than this team) having broken out with 89 wins in 1983 and averaging 92 wins/season between 1983-87. They'd also already had a massive choke/collapse when they blew a 3-1 lead to KC in the 1985 playoffs.

That core of Barfield/Moseby/Bell/Stieb/Clancy/Fernandez/Upshaw was closer to their end than their beginning and they weren't an 'up and coming team' at all anymore by that point. That was 'the year' for that group and they blew it.

 

[jetsforever]

I'll feel a bit better if we win tonight.

 

[Ciao]

They weren’t a team on the rise though. They were well within their competitive window and followed that season with 87 (no playoffs), 89 (lost to As), and 86 (no playoffs). That 1990 season also culminated in another devastating end to the season dropping 6 of their last 8 to lose the division.

It took those years of heartbreak for “Stand” Pat Gillick to finally reconstruct the roster by acquiring Devo, Alomar, and Carter.

Well, if you say so, but I was there and we all thought they were going to the World Series that year.

It turns out that was a lot harder than anyone around here expected, but we didn't know that then.

 

[Ciao]

Yeah, what?

The 1987 Jays were in Year 5 of their competitive window (multiple years deeper than this team) having broken out with 89 wins in 1983 and averaging 92 wins/season between 1983-87. They'd also already had a massive choke/collapse when they blew a 3-1 lead to KC in the 1985 playoffs.

That core of Barfield/Moseby/Bell/Stieb/Clancy/Fernandez/Upshaw was closer to their end than their beginning and they weren't an 'up and coming team' at all anymore by that point. That was 'the year' for that group and they blew it.

I remember the 1985 team -- and the two or three teams before that -- pretty well, too, and as far as I'm concerned the '87 team was the best team they had ever had up to that point and it was indeed the year we thought we would have the World Series played in Toronto.

1983 was all about "Let's go . . . Blue Jays . . . Let's . . . Play . . . Ball!" The were half-decent for once and it was refreshing.

'85 was a great disappointment, but really the first real disappointment. We thought they were pretty good, but it turned out not good enough! Remember the excitement of getting Bill Caudill in the off-season for Alfredo Griffin and Dave Collins? He was going to be the be-all and end-all closer they needed!

'87 we thought it had all been fixed, and it sure felt like a team on the rise to me. They seemed to be going places they had never gone before

 

[Eyedea]

Well, if you say so, but I was there and we all thought they were going to the World Series that year.

It turns out that was a lot harder than anyone around here expected, but we didn't know that then.

Sure but this isn't hindsight bias on my end. I'm simply stating the fact that the Jays core in 1987 was well in their prime and not simply beginning their competitive window (as evidenced by the seasons prior). Saying that they should've traded Barfield/Bell/Moseby since they were all about to hit a hard decline the next year would've been hindsight on my end. Just like people saying the Jays should've traded Vladdy, Manoah, and/or Kirk when they were all important contributors to the team last year (all of them are several years younger than Barfield/Bell/Moseby were in 1987 btw).

 

[Ciao]

Sure but this isn't hindsight bias on my end. I'm simply stating the fact that the Jays core in 1987 was well in their prime and not simply beginning their competitive window (as evidenced by the seasons prior). Saying that they should've traded Barfield/Bell/Moseby since they were all about to hit a hard decline the next year would've been hindsight on my end. Just like people saying the Jays should've traded Vladdy, Manoah, and/or Kirk when they were all important contributors to the team last year (all of them are several years younger than Barfield/Bell/Moseby were in 1987 btw).

"Stand Pat" was indeed the moniker, but anyone thinking they should have traded George Bell that summer just wasn't following the team then. Ditto for Moseby and Barfield, but to a lesser extent.

I don't think the fanbase would have at all understood those deals unless it turned out to be a Carter/Alomar-type acquisition, which frankly I don't think most of us anticipated or even understood until the deal was done and the proof was in the pudding.

There was no appetite then to break up what we then thought was a pretty sure thing -- not knowing just how hard the path would be.

I think your original question was how does this team (this year's collapse?) compare to the collapse in 1987, and remembering back to how we saw it then it's completely different. We were then full of hope and really did think the '87 Jays were a team on the rise, even if a forensic analysis some 35 years later says otherwise. We just didn't see it that way then, no matter how the true facts look in the rear-view mirror.

It was just heartbreaking.

 

[Eyedea]

"Stand Pat" was indeed the moniker, but anyone thinking they should have traded George Bell that summer just wasn't following the team then. Ditto for Moseby and Barfield, but to a lesser extent.

I don't think the fanbase would have at all understood those deals unless it turned out to be a Carter/Alomar-type acquisition, which frankly I don't think most of us anticipated or even understood until the deal was done and the proof was in the pudding.

There was no appetite then to break up what we then thought was a pretty sure thing -- not knowing just how hard the path would be.

I think your original question was how does this team (this year's collapse?) compare to the collapse in 1987, and remembering back to how we saw it then it's completely different. We were then full of hope and really did think the '87 Jays were a team on the rise, even if a forensic analysis some 35 years later says otherwise. We just didn't see it that way then, no matter how the true facts look in the rear-view mirror.

It was just heartbreaking.

The premise of my original post was the idea that if the Jays miss the playoffs this year, it’s nowhere close to the devastation of the 1987 team. The Jays will still be good and competitive next year, just like the Jays were in 1988 (and all the way through 1993). That’s all I ask and find this way more enjoyable than rebuilding or being stuck in mediocrity.

Some people like to compare the regime/org to AA and the Braves, when his most successful season came on the back of an 88 win team. His 100+ win WS favourite bowed out last year to the Phillies who were just happy to scrape their way into the postseason.

 

[jetsforever]

Bit of good injury news:

 

[Suntouchable13]

Bit of good injury news:

It would be good if we got April Chappy for a couple of weeks here.

 

[tmlfan98]

I think this is the first time all season that Varsho has been out of the lineup vs a RHP starter and it wasn't a rest day (he also sat only 4 days ago).

 

[jetsforever]

I think this is the first time all season that Varsho has been out of the lineup vs a RHP starter and it wasn't a rest day (he also sat only 4 days ago).

Finally looks like a major league lineup again

 

[chewey]

Hernandez = avg .267, RBI 88, HR 25
Gurriel Jr. = avg .260, RBI 74, HR 23
Moreno = avg .279, RBI 43, HR 7

Totals = avg .269, RBI 205, HR 55

Varsho = avg .217, RBI 51, HR 16
Belt = avg .251, RBI 38, HR 16
Kiermaier = avg .273, RBI 34, HR 8

Totals = avg .247, RBI 123, HR 40

That difference of 82 RBI and 15 HR really factors in when you need more runs to win, losing that much offense for defense will put your team where it is today.

Neat. What’s the actual amount of runs prevented and the difference in runs from Vlad, Springer and Chapman from last year? Would like to see the net picture of your argument.

 

[dredeye]

Thats not great. Looking bleak at this point.

And people think we might still get in lol.

 

[ChuckNorris4Cup]

Neat. What’s the actual amount of runs prevented and the difference in runs from Vlad, Springer and Chapman from last year? Would like to see the net picture of your argument.

Not sure about stats for defense, obviously there are people who do, and yes the stats from what I've seen for this year they're a good defensive team, but it needed to be balanced out more. Needed to keep one of either Hernandez or Gurriel Jr, and I was okay with letting Teo go because he imo is worse in the outfield then Gurriel, Gurriel also had a cannon of an arm. It was just the Varsho trade should of never happened, grabbing KK and Belt made sense, but losing both Teo and Gurriel bats and then the young prospect catcher on top was just too much, especially with how injury prone Jansen is.

What's kind of funny seeing today's lineup and supposedly Varsho is really good defensively and he's not in the lineup.... So what's more important offense or defense....

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Not sure about stats for defense, obviously there are people who do, and yes the stats from what I've seen for this year they're a good defensive team, but it needed to be balanced out more. Needed to keep one of either Hernandez or Gurriel Jr, and I was okay with letting Teo go because he imo is worse in the outfield then Gurriel, Gurriel also had a cannon of an arm. It was just the Varsho trade should of never happened, grabbing KK and Belt made sense, but losing both Teo and Gurriel bats and then the young prospect catcher on top was just too much, especially with how injury prone Jansen is.

What's kind of funny seeing today's lineup and supposedly Varsho is really good defensively and he's not in the lineup.... So what's more important offense or defense....

I mean at the end of the day this isn't an issue of having or not having Teo, Gurriel Jr or Moreno. They made a calculated gamble that the core offensive pieces they already had in house(Vlad,Bo,Springer,Kirk,Chapman) were strong enough offensively to be able to keep the offense competitive while improving our run prevention at the same time....which if we are being honest our dog shit defense in the outfield last year is probably pretty close to reason number 1 why we blew game 2 in the Wild Card round. So it all comes back around to the main issue....our best players just not being good enough. Gurriel being here instead of Varsho isn't pushing this team over the top even a little bit if Vladdy is still a replacement level player.

 

[ChuckNorris4Cup]

I mean at the end of the day this isn't an issue of having or not having Teo, Gurriel Jr or Moreno. They made a calculated gamble that the core offensive pieces they already had in house(Vlad,Bo,Springer,Kirk,Chapman) were strong enough offensively to be able to keep the offense competitive while improving our run prevention at the same time....which if we are being honest our dog shit defense in the outfield last year is probably pretty close to reason number 1 why we blew game 2 in the Wild Card round. So it all comes back around to the main issue....our best players just not being good enough. Gurriel being here instead of Varsho isn't pushing this team over the top even a little bit if Vladdy is still a replacement level player.

The defense wasn't going to catch all the HR the bullpen was giving up either, hence why improving the bullpen was a factor and they got Swanson hence losing Teo was ok, but didn't fully improve the bullpen until the deadline this year. At the end of the day it isn't defense that's losing them games it's driving in runs and being clutch. Gurriel and Moreno instead Varsho isn't putting them at the top of the division, but they're helping enough to win a game here or there or come up clutch more for sure.

 

[ChuckNorris4Cup]

Good start lol 1-0

 

[MK78]

Well shit...

 

[TheBeastCoast]

The defense wasn't going to catch all the HR the bullpen was giving up either, hence why improving the bullpen was a factor and they got Swanson hence losing Teo was ok, but didn't fully improve the bullpen until the deadline this year. At the end of the day it isn't defense that's losing them games it's driving in runs and being clutch. Gurriel and Moreno instead Varsho isn't putting them at the top of the division, but they're helping enough to win a game here or there or come up clutch more for sure.

I don't know, I just straight up disagree. This team(any team) rides and dies with its best players. Last year in that game there were a few balls that dropped in that shit show of a game 2 that our outfield this year just casually glide under. That is honestly just a fact. There was no scenario where we were going into this season with all three of Moreno,Kirk, and Jansen on the roster either. End of the day, multiple guys that we needed to carry the load offensively for this team....and should have been able to do so just have not. That isn't on any trade or free agent signing that is just core players having really bad years.

 

[Eyedea]

Not sure about stats for defense, obviously there are people who do, and yes the stats from what I've seen for this year they're a good defensive team, but it needed to be balanced out more. Needed to keep one of either Hernandez or Gurriel Jr, and I was okay with letting Teo go because he imo is worse in the outfield then Gurriel, Gurriel also had a cannon of an arm. It was just the Varsho trade should of never happened, grabbing KK and Belt made sense, but losing both Teo and Gurriel bats and then the young prospect catcher on top was just too much, especially with how injury prone Jansen is.

What's kind of funny seeing today's lineup and supposedly Varsho is really good defensively and he's not in the lineup.... So what's more important offense or defense....

Varsho’s likely not in the lineup because they’ll probably go to Bradford (lefty) after Eovaldi (pitch limit).