Blue Jays GDT: 2023 v11 | Wed, Sept 21 | @ NYY | 7:00pm ET/4:00pm PT | Berrios vs Cole

[Eyedea]

I’ll bet @MS’s house on it too.

Eflin’s thrown far fewer innings and is more than half a run higher in ERA. Just because these are counting stats doesn’t mean they don’t influence the vote. Are Cole’s expected stats worse? Is he likely to perform worse next year? These are not factors in the CYA voting. Even if you were to do a 50/50 split of RA9/FIP based wars then the only guy that comes close is Sonny Gray and I highly highly doubt anyone wants an 8-7 guy winning the award lol. Arguing about team record in Eflin/Cole starts is also negligible considering it’s only 2 more losses on Cole’s end.

 

[MS]

You are presenting your opinion as objective fact.

It's an objective fact that Cole is going to cakewalk the Cy Young voting and it will be close to unanimous.

Yes, obviously it's my opinion that Eflin would be an egregious choice.

I’ll bet @MS’s house on it too.

Eflin’s thrown far fewer innings and is more than half a run higher in ERA. Just because these are counting stats doesn’t mean they don’t influence the vote. Are Cole’s expected stats worse? Is he likely to perform worse next year? These are not factors in the CYA voting. Even if you were to do a 50/50 split of RA9/FIP based wars then the only guy that comes close is Sonny Gray and I highly highly doubt anyone wants an 8-7 guy winning the award lol. Arguing about team record in Eflin/Cole starts is also negligible considering it’s only 2 more losses on Cole’s end.

If anything this argument favours Cole since the Yankees record with him starting is HUGELY better than their record otherwise whereas the difference with Eflin starting in TB is much less.

And yeah, actual results still matter more than anything else. Going to theoreticals for award voting is ridiculous.

 

[Bjindaho]

It's an objective fact that Cole is going to cakewalk the Cy Young voting and it will be close to unanimous.

Yes, obviously it's my opinion that Eflin would be an egregious choice.



If anything this argument favours Cole since the Yankees record with him starting is HUGELY better than their record otherwise whereas the difference with Eflin starting in TB is much less.

And yeah, actual results still matter more than anything else. Going to theoreticals for award voting is ridiculous.

fWAR isn't theoretical. It is an attempt to adjust for differences in defense and luck with regards to starter performance.

 

[MS]

fWAR isn't theoretical. It is an attempt to adjust for differences in defense and luck with regards to starter performance.

That's literally the definition of theoretical.

 

[Bjindaho]

That's literally the definition of theoretical.

No, it isn't.

It is probabilistic.

 

[MS]

No, it isn't.

It is probabilistic.

Results separated from luck and defense are theoretical.

 

[Discoverer]

Results separated from luck and defense are theoretical.

Eh, if you're trying to evaluate the impact of a pitcher, I think it's important to try to strip out defense. I don't think it's necessarily theoretical - you're evaluating things that actually happened and just trying to assign credit/blame appropriately.

Luck, though, is a different subject altogether.