2023 Tank Thread (Mod post Page 60)

[GunnarStahl]

Since it seems the Ducks will likely finish bottom 5 this year, I figured we should have a thread for discussing the implications of where the f***s will finish in the standings. As well as what factors could affect where they finish.

Tonight was interesting as all bottom 5 teams earned 2 points sans the Ducks and the Hawks.

Hey Folks,

Want to clear some of the air here, Tank talk is not an issue, please talk tank to your heart’s content here, totally understand how critical it is for that Future Potential Top pick. The issue is posting in the GDT, like you want the team to lose or make posts that you are angry they are winning or won the game, or bashing the team for not tanking.

The main reason is, to respect your fellow members. The GDT is about discussion of the game on a live basis and then post game discussion and opinions. A lot of fans are not rooting for the team to lose, and everyone has their views and opinions towards tanking, and may not want to discuss tanking in the GDT

If you guys have any concerns, feel free to PM me or another mod, and would be happy to explain more in detail.

Thanks!

Leo

Click to read more...

 

[lwvs84]

I'm confused. Isn't D+0 (draft year) imply that season's production is for the draft? For example, Beniers was drafted in the 2021 draft, then his 2020-21 season is his draft year (D+0 season).

Here's how I see it:

Beniers​

2019-20 (D-1): USDP = 0.93 ppg and USHL = 1.00 ppg​

2020-21 (D+0): NCAA = 1.00 ppg <---- Drafted​

2021-22 (D+1): NCAA = 1.16 ppg​

2022-23 (D+2): NHL = 0.73 ppg​

Another way I interpret it is the NHL rights to CHL players. The NHL team has two years to sign their players when they are drafted or they go back into the draft. We can use another 2021 prospect as an example with LW Tschigerl, a Ducks 5th round pick. CapFriendly shares that Tschigerl must be signed by Jun 1, 2023, which would mark two years from his draft date, or D+2 season. We can work backwards.

2022-23 (D+2)​

2021-22 (D+1)​

2020-21 (D+0)​

If I'm wrong, then I don't mind changing my logic.

From what I understand, people go by when a prospect is a team's "property" or drafted by the team. So D+0 means the first year the player is officially affiliated with a franchise.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

From what I understand, people go by when a prospect is a team's "property" or drafted by the team. So D+0 means the first year the player is officially affiliated with a franchise.

Well, shit. I've been doing it wrong all these damned years!

 

[forever1922]

Well, shit. I've been doing it wrong all these damned years!

Don't be swayed. Your logic was correct.

It has nothing to do with rights being owned by franchise, it refers to draft eligibility. And you had it explained exactly as it is.

 

[lwvs84]

Well, shit. I've been doing it wrong all these damned years!

I thought your way made sense, but a lot of what people have posted was the other way around... not sure what the right way is haha.

 

[GunnarStahl]

The right way is referring to DY as the first year a prospect was eligible. For example, in the last draft, Mintyukov was selected after playing his DY or D-0 whichever term you prefer. He is now playing his D+1. Meanwhile Ben King was drafted as a double overaged prospect after playing his D+2 year. As a result he is now in his D+3 year. Ben Kings DY was 2020.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I thought your way made sense, but a lot of what people have posted was the other way around... not sure what the right way is haha.

I was thinking "draft year" production, which would be the production before they got drafted. Your explanation is "drafted year" production, which would mean production after they were drafted. I never thought of it from an NHL property perspective. I always thought of it from the prospects' and draft perspective, "What did they produce in their draft season, the season they will be drafted."

Here is HockeyProspecting's usage of D-1, D+0, and D+3:

• The tool provides the player’s NHLe for five years of development, from their D-1 season (i.e., pre-draft year) through their first eligible draft year (i.e., true draft year) through to their D3 season (i.e., third season after their first eligible draft year)

What I like about HP's definition is it fixates on first eligible draft year. That makes a lot more sense as it is a set standard of apples to apples comparison for prospects for HP's purposes. That's just one source, but there could be other sources that uses the NHL property perspective definition. ::: raising shoulders :::

 

[Kalv]

I'm confused. Isn't D+0 (draft year) imply that season's production is for the draft? For example, Beniers was drafted in the 2021 draft, then his 2020-21 season is his draft year (D+0 season).

Here's how I see it:

Beniers​

2019-20 (D-1): USDP = 0.93 ppg and USHL = 1.00 ppg​

2020-21 (D+0): NCAA = 1.00 ppg <---- Drafted​

2021-22 (D+1): NCAA = 1.16 ppg​

2022-23 (D+2): NHL = 0.73 ppg​

Another way I interpret it is the NHL rights to CHL players. The NHL team has two years to sign their players when they are drafted or they go back into the draft. We can use another 2021 prospect as an example with LW Tschigerl, a Ducks 5th round pick. CapFriendly shares that Tschigerl must be signed by Jun 1, 2023, which would mark two years from his draft date, or D+2 season. We can work backwards.

2022-23 (D+2)​

2021-22 (D+1)​

2020-21 (D+0)​

If I'm wrong, then I don't mind changing my logic.

I haven't seen any universally accepted method

I guess to me D is the D (that's what she said, I guess), not any season. D -1 is season before and D+1 is season after. D is just a draft, not a season.

That's just how I calculate it in my head

 

[TheGoodShepard1]

More of the undercard to the main tank, so I’ll go ahead and tempt some fate but Philadelphia (Buffalo) and St. Louis (at Washington) both leading by identical 4-0 scores after two periods. If the results hold, the Flyers would go 7 clear and the Blues (who have been really struggling recently and who we play next Saturday) would jump to an 11 point lead before the Ducks play tonight. Provides a little more of a buffer

 

[Gliff]

D+1 is the season after they are drafted.
Minty is in his d+1.
Bedard is in his draft year.

 

[Static]

Flyers and blues both won

 

[Terry Yake]

didn't expect to lose to the jackets but man did they tease us

that sucked

 

[ohcomeonref]

 

[TheGoodShepard1]

They were the second best team all night, but Columbus simply cannot be stopped. Those last three minutes will be replayed for generations of how to execute a tank job.

 

[Terry Yake]

there's no way they're catching the jackets. they're just too good at tanking

i just hope they finish bottom 3

 

[Dryish]

Just for the heck of it, I went through the bottom four teams' remaining schedules to see how the rest of the season could shake out.

The current situation has us at 56pts (69gp), Chicago at 54pts (68gp), San Jose at 52pts (69gp) & Columbus at 49pts (68gp). This means that, given the same results for all teams, Chicago needs to win at least once to surpass us, San Jose needs to win two more games than we do, and Columbus would need to win four more games than we do to catch up.

Out of the remaining games, at a quick glance...

Ducks have 3-5 winnable games left (Vancouver 2x, Arizona 1x, maybe Calgary 2x)
Chicago has 3-5 winnable games left (Vancouver 2x, Arizona 1x, Philadelphia 1x, maybe Calgary 1x)
Sharks have 2-4 winnable games left (Vancouver 1x, Arizona 1x, maybe Calgary 2x)
Columbus has 1-2 winnable games left (Philadelphia 1x, maybe Montreal 1x)

So, honestly, we're probably finishing 3rd or 4th last. I'd say 3rd is more likely by a small margin, but who really knows. Very unlikely to end back at 2nd last, almost impossible to finish last.

Let's see how this goes. Obviously not exactly like this, since the better teams can have worse days (especially going into the playoffs), but this sorta gives you a picture.

 

[DuckDuckGetz]

I've given up on last. 2nd to last is good with me, and I think it's still within reach.

 

[Leonardo87]

I've given up on last. 2nd to last is good with me, and I think it's still within reach.

If we played like we did last night against better teams , then will likely end up there. Last place is not happening. Columbus is cooked.

 

[GreatBear]

Philadelphia tied by Carolina with one second left in the game, and then Carolina goes on to win in overtime. That is sad. Every point that these teams above us can earn could be important to keep us as low a possible. Philadelphia now leads us by six points. Montreal (up by four points over us) is tied with Tampa Bay after one period. The big game of the night is Chicago at Arizona. Go Hawks.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Philadelphia tied by Carolina with one second left in the game, and then Carolina goes on to win in overtime. That is sad. Every point that these teams above us can earn could be important to keep us as low a possible. Philadelphia now leads us by six points. Montreal (up by four points over us) is tied with Tampa Bay after one period. The big game of the night is Chicago at Arizona. Go Hawks.

Philly earning a point is a great thing! It cancels out all the times we earn an OTL. We have the same amount of games played and Philly is up six.

The night is starting off great! That's all I've got to say. I won't comment on on-going games until they're completed.

 

[Terry Yake]

i get the sense it'll be a team like philly or vancouver that ends up with bedard

 

[DuckDuckGetz]

i get the sense it'll be a team like philly or vancouver that ends up with bedard

Two terribly run teams... He'll be traded by the start of the season for Seth Jones or something.

 

[goonsaredumb]

Two terribly run teams... He'll be traded by the start of the season for Seth Jones or something.

That seems like a Chicago move but they've already done the trade a good prospect and some assets for Seth Jones move.

Chicago really seemed to just miss the part in the "How to Rebuild" manual that says you actually need to keep the young guys to build around for the future. Debrincat, Boqvist, Dach, and Hagel are just some of the names they traded away, Nazar/Korchinski/Reichel shouldn't get too comfortable.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Montreal gave up 3 goals, including an EN, in the third period. Couldn't hold against Tampa. Bleah.

 

[Terry Yake]

if you told me the sharks are actually playing to lose i would believe it

 

[TheGoodShepard1]

Karlsson’s play since the deadline has been terrible enough to potentially cost him the Norris and the Sharks goaltending is ass. Do not reward them with Bedard