Yeah, I've never read the original bitcoin whitepaper that
@2CHAINZ referenced, but I have read online tutorials on blockchain. I have a degree in Comp Eng, so I understand it pretty well.
But I will admit that I "don't understand bitcoin". In the sense that I don't understand why it has value, and in particular why it would go up (or down) in value at any time. If I buy stock in a company, purchase a bond, or even exchange money from one currency to another (say Cdn$ to US$) I understand what each of those things represents and why they have value and (mostly) why that value might change over time. IE, when that stuff might go down, I can understand why and therefore can decide on my own whether I think that will happen. With Bitcoin, I have no clue so can't possibly predict.
But... when I state that Bitcoin is higher risk than a broad based stock ETF, that is based purely on actual historical financial data. When professional investors consider any investment, be it an individual stock or ETF or managed fund, there are a handful of metrics that define it's "risk". One of them is its "drawdown" -- basically the amount it goes down from it's peak price to lowest price in a given timeframe.
In the last 40 years the S&P 500 has had 4 major drawdown events: the 1987 Black Monday crash (-30%), the 2001 dot com bubble burst (-45%), the 2008 financial crisis (-48%) and the 2020 Covid crash (-20%).
Just eyeballing the returns for Bitcoin, it has had 4 drawdowns of similar or larger magnitude
in the last 7 years.
That is, major drawdowns happen in Bitcoin almost
6 times more often than the S&P 500.