Boston Bruins 2023 Off-Season CAP, Trade Rumors and Free Agent Talk X

[Sheppy]

His minus was when Bertuzzi tossed a pizza out front in the defensive zone while Grizz was over by the bench. Plus/Minus is a terrible stat and it just takes something like that (or his other minus being Ullmark’s gaffe) to repudiate it.

I just find it alarming that he's never actually been a positive player in the post season. He puts up very solid +/- numbers in the regular season and then it nose dives in the post season. Not only does it nose dive, but his offensive production goes to complete shit too. (Mind you, he's not great offensively to begin with)

 

[Gee Wally]

 

[TCB]

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

I just find it alarming that he's never actually been a positive player in the post season. He puts up very solid +/- numbers in the regular season and then it nose dives in the post season. Not only does it nose dive, but his offensive production goes to complete shit too. (Mind you, he's not great offensively to begin with)

For the sake of everyone else I won’t post again the breakdown of his playoff performance and why plus minus isn’t a plausible way to evaluate it. But it is funny to me that people who abhor advanced stats or analytics or anything like that will use a different stat to continually try to make a point - a stat that is so bad literally no one uses it for any kind of evaluation any more.

 

[ProdigalFan]

I'd take the proven player in Jake, rather than lesser players.

Check Jake's stats. Watch him last year. And the latter half of the 22 season. He's improved. He's great on the PK. His forecheck this year was great. Had he not broken his leg he would of gotten 30 EASILY.

I'm not trading him away. Let him be apart of our core with Pasta.

Unlike last year, shootout points are going to be important for this team, and Jake was pretty good in the shootout for us.

 

[GoBs]

For the sake of everyone else I won’t post again the breakdown of his playoff performance and why plus minus isn’t a plausible way to evaluate it. But it is funny to me that people who abhor advanced stats or analytics or anything like that will use a different stat to continually try to make a point - a stat that is so bad literally no one uses it for any kind of evaluation any more.

Thank you

 

[Sheppy]

For the sake of everyone else I won’t post again the breakdown of his playoff performance and why plus minus isn’t a plausible way to evaluate it. But it is funny to me that people who abhor advanced stats or analytics or anything like that will use a different stat to continually try to make a point - a stat that is so bad literally no one uses it for any kind of evaluation any more.

I just don't really see any real positives to his playoff game. Advanced stats or not. He's bad in the playoffs. I'm just saying to go from the high end of the +/- spectrum to a complete 180. There has to be some blame put on Grzelcyk and not because it's everyone else fault.

+/- is a pretty bleh stat, I agree, but it's alarming to see how high it is in the regular season and how dog shit it is in the post season.

I've watched enough hockey to know when the game is over a players head. In the post season, it's over Grzelcyk's head.

I also have the same concerns about the goaltending to a degree, but I'm willing to see how they do this year if they get there.

 

[Sheppy]

But that's why I gave all his stats for both the regular season and the playoffs. Over the course of his career he has not been the same player when the sun starts setting after 7. This isn't about a few games.

I spent years adamantly defending him and citing his advanced numbers as a reason to overlook his post-season issues. I figured it was a fluke. But after awhile I realized the game gets too fast and too strong for him in the playoffs, which is why I think he struggles so much. And for as much as he brings for 82, I don't want anyone I can't trust when the playoff begin.

The fact he got benched shows I'm not the only "smaht" person who feels this way.

This is basically how I feel.

 

[NeelyDan]

Actually you know everyone well but right now what’s trending (90%)

Diets - we are all on diets and lot of food discussions and photos

Football

Lou is so down on Mets and recovering from Bruins rarely hockey or baseball

Although I’m trying to pry Luke Hughes from him lol

any token Canadians that I can bump off and assume their place?

 

[TCB]

I like Millers idea here.

 

[DKH]

any token Canadians that I can bump off and assume their place?

No. We complain about our families here

Take anyone to long to catch up to all these kids

 

[NDiesel]

His minus was when Bertuzzi tossed a pizza out front in the defensive zone while Grizz was over by the bench. Plus/Minus is a terrible stat and it just takes something like that (or his other minus being Ullmark’s gaffe) to repudiate it.

It is an insanely limited stat but i don't agree with this line of thinking either.

For every play like this that he had no fault in, how many times did he miss his guy in front and get bailed out by Ullmark? Or make a bad pinch and get bailed out by his d partner on a 2 on 1? And on and on you can go both ways.

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Great post

I keep hearing how Florida was to big and tough for Grzelcyk yet games 3 and 4 in Florida with last call on matchups - Grzelcyk was in lineup for the 4-2 and 6-2 wins but not game 6 a 7-5 loss

I'd be shocked to this day if Gryz had not been maimed in the first two games. Recall, Florida running around with a spare rulebook on their side until Tkachuk had to be fined to calm them down.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

It is an insanely limited stat but i don't agree with this line of thinking either.

For every play like this that he had no fault in, how many times did he miss his guy in front and get bailed out by Ullmark? Or make a bad pinch and get bailed out by his d partner on a 2 on 1? And on and on you can go both ways.

Exactly. That’s why there are better stats to capture what you’re talking about. Thank you.

 

[NDiesel]

For the sake of everyone else I won’t post again the breakdown of his playoff performance and why plus minus isn’t a plausible way to evaluate it. But it is funny to me that people who abhor advanced stats or analytics or anything like that will use a different stat to continually try to make a point - a stat that is so bad literally no one uses it for any kind of evaluation any more.

Im not trying to get us derailed here, but I am genuinely curious on your thoughts.

Isnt it a bit alarming to you that they seem to control the shots and possession when he's on the ice but he:

1) Never has a positive goal differential in the playoffs

2) Rarely collects points for all that possession

It's very odd to me, because you would think with how good his transition game is he would be gathering a lot more secondary assists at the very least.

 

[Caper Bruins fan]

I won’t miss Nosek . While I don’t expect much offensively out of a 4th line center, you can’t be a total black hole offensively either like Nosek was . Give me a Kuraly 2019 type .

 

[NDiesel]

Actually you know everyone well but right now what’s trending (90%)

Diets - we are all on diets and lot of food discussions and photos

Football

Lou is so down on Mets and recovering from Bruins rarely hockey or baseball

Although I’m trying to pry Luke Hughes from him lol

Oh man I'm surprised he's not also down on the Vikings

 

[Dr Quincy]

Im not trying to get us derailed here, but I am genuinely curious on your thoughts.

Isnt it a bit alarming to you that they seem to control the shots and possession when he's on the ice but he:

1) Never has a positive goal differential in the playoffs

2) Rarely collects points for all that possession

It's very odd to me, because you would think with how good his transition game is he would be gathering a lot more secondary assists at the very least.

Advanced stats, even relative ones, aren't perfect at really determining how good a role player on a really good or really bad team is. There's an attempt to figure it out, and it's good to look at, but like any stat, it doesn't tell the whole story.

It's possible that he in general does help the team generate more chances than they give up. But it's also possible, that in a Game 7 OT, when the team has the puck behind his goalie's net, that he doesn't do a great job of holding his ground, and when a series ending shot is taken, he kind of flinches instead of putting himself in front of it. Watch that Verhaghe goal, and you don't need any relative metrics to tell you that he didn't do his job there.

One play. Doesn't mean he sucks, but just adds to the whole picture instead of just relying on stats (which by the way I do generally like... but they aren't perfect).

 

[BMC]

But that's why I gave all his stats for both the regular season and the playoffs. Over the course of his career he has not been the same player when the sun starts setting after 7. This isn't about a few games.

I spent years adamantly defending him and citing his advanced numbers as a reason to overlook his post-season issues. I figured it was a fluke. But after awhile I realized the game gets too fast and too strong for him in the playoffs, which is why I think he struggles so much. And for as much as he brings for 82, I don't want anyone I can't trust when the playoff begin.

The fact he got benched shows I'm not the only "smaht" person who feels this way.

This right here has always been my objection to Gryzz. Always.

 

[quietbruinfan]

Winckowski and his continious stream of hangers is tiresome. Move?

 

[NDiesel]

Advanced stats, even relative ones, aren't perfect at really determining how good a role player on a really good or really bad team is. There's an attempt to figure it out, and it's good to look at, but like any stat, it doesn't tell the whole story.

It's possible that he in general does help the team generate more chances than they give up. But it's also possible, that in a Game 7 OT, when the team has the puck behind his goalie's net, that he doesn't do a great job of holding his ground, and when a series ending shot is taken, he kind of flinches instead of putting himself in front of it. Watch that Verhaghe goal, and you don't need any relative metrics to tell you that he didn't do his job there.

One play. Doesn't mean he sucks, but just adds to the whole picture instead of just relying on stats (which by the way I do generally like... but they aren't perfect).

Really appreciate the post, didn't think liking it gave it enough credit.

 

[Mr. Make-Believe]

The odds makers agree. Only the smaht folks here at HF think they suck.

For reference, here's what jfresh thought the standings would be before the 22-23 season:

 

[NDiesel]

For reference, here's what jfresh thought the standings would be before the 22-23 season:
View attachment 729981

I wonder how/why he had Vegas so low. I kinda understand all the other ones he was wrong on besides that one and Dallas.

 

[PlayMakers]

Advanced stats, even relative ones, aren't perfect at really determining how good a role player on a really good or really bad team is. There's an attempt to figure it out, and it's good to look at, but like any stat, it doesn't tell the whole story.

It's possible that he in general does help the team generate more chances than they give up. But it's also possible, that in a Game 7 OT, when the team has the puck behind his goalie's net, that he doesn't do a great job of holding his ground, and when a series ending shot is taken, he kind of flinches instead of putting himself in front of it. Watch that Verhaghe goal, and you don't need any relative metrics to tell you that he didn't do his job there.

One play. Doesn't mean he sucks, but just adds to the whole picture instead of just relying on stats (which by the way I do generally like... but they aren't perfect).

There are so many people who failed on that Verhaege goal before Grzelcyk "fails" to a block a shot going top corner that even Swayman failed to block.

Carlo and Bergeron are behind the net and lose the battle for the puck. Marchand is a blade length away from the shooter but doesn't block the shot, yet Grzelcyk gets blamed for that goal.

 

[PlayMakers]

I wonder how/why he had Vegas so low. I kinda understand all the other ones he was wrong on besides that one and Dallas.

Vegas missed the playoffs the year before. Most people had them missing the playoffs again.