2023 NHL Draft situation
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Kevin Musto
Hard for Bedard
- Feb 16, 2018
- 23,112
- 29,795
I read that in my head like "Zock" because of Dach
- Dec 15, 2015
- 5,572
- 3,381
So yesterday on a sports radio channel here in Ottawa,the hosts of a show were taking about Connor Bedard and the 11 lottery teanswith a chance at him...
Maybe with tongue in cheek or maybe not,they said something like: we all know Chicago gets him....because that is what Gary wants!
So maybe they were just joking around ...butthey also implied that Bedard in Columbus or Anaheim or Arizona woukld not be what the NHL would like to maximize marketing potential and revenues from Bedard's superstardom trajectory ...and implied having a healthy Chicago market is very important to the NHL...
So they then ended the discussion with IF there are no "shenanigans"....ie. IF there is no "fix" then Bedard will end up with the luckiest team from the 11 with a chance at him...but maybe tgey were really asking if the lottery will be rigged to land hom in Chicago as tfe NHL's preferred optimal destination for him?
I have posted many times my feelings Hawks would not be so lucky in an honest lottery...Odds much much higher that hexwill end up with 1 of the other 10 teams having a chance at him ...
But the idea that the NHL might "fix" a lottery in favour of 1 preferred team might not be just a conspiracy theory ...We keep coming back to the Crosby draft and the suspicion the NHL could not afford Pittsburgh and one of its owners,Mario Lemieux,going bankrupt...that it would be a disaster for the NHL...so it is highly suspected tge NHL "fixed" it to bail our Mario and save the Pittsburgh franchise...
We can of course never find out the truth...which is why when a situation cones up that a "fix" solution seems like it might be the preference from an NHL optimal for revenues solution,one must not just laugh off the possibility for a non-kosher lottery.
However...no danger the Hawks go bankrupt...so not exactly the dire circumstances that were there in the Pittsburgh /Mario situation prior to that lottery ...
Yet for obvious reasons the NHL would like both a healthy arena filled Chicago market AND a large market and good time zone to maximize the Bedard revenue generating potential ...
So we can only bring up this topic with the idea that it cannot be dismissed outright....if only Hawks fans brought this up as a possible outcome,then that would be a fantasy wish...but the fact that it was Ottawa sportscaster bring up there could be a fix to satisfy NHL preferred location for Bedard for marketing and revenue maximization suggests it just might be in the works..
I will end with just saying that I fo nit believe luck will land us Bedard ...but rather that a healthy Chicago market generating top revenues plus the marketing opportunities to feed off the Bedard phenomenon are really both answered if he is "put" into the Chicago market...
Just saying what others are thinking...
Maybe with tongue in cheek or maybe not,they said something like: we all know Chicago gets him....because that is what Gary wants!
So maybe they were just joking around ...butthey also implied that Bedard in Columbus or Anaheim or Arizona woukld not be what the NHL would like to maximize marketing potential and revenues from Bedard's superstardom trajectory ...and implied having a healthy Chicago market is very important to the NHL...
So they then ended the discussion with IF there are no "shenanigans"....ie. IF there is no "fix" then Bedard will end up with the luckiest team from the 11 with a chance at him...but maybe tgey were really asking if the lottery will be rigged to land hom in Chicago as tfe NHL's preferred optimal destination for him?
I have posted many times my feelings Hawks would not be so lucky in an honest lottery...Odds much much higher that hexwill end up with 1 of the other 10 teams having a chance at him ...
But the idea that the NHL might "fix" a lottery in favour of 1 preferred team might not be just a conspiracy theory ...We keep coming back to the Crosby draft and the suspicion the NHL could not afford Pittsburgh and one of its owners,Mario Lemieux,going bankrupt...that it would be a disaster for the NHL...so it is highly suspected tge NHL "fixed" it to bail our Mario and save the Pittsburgh franchise...
We can of course never find out the truth...which is why when a situation cones up that a "fix" solution seems like it might be the preference from an NHL optimal for revenues solution,one must not just laugh off the possibility for a non-kosher lottery.
However...no danger the Hawks go bankrupt...so not exactly the dire circumstances that were there in the Pittsburgh /Mario situation prior to that lottery ...
Yet for obvious reasons the NHL would like both a healthy arena filled Chicago market AND a large market and good time zone to maximize the Bedard revenue generating potential ...
So we can only bring up this topic with the idea that it cannot be dismissed outright....if only Hawks fans brought this up as a possible outcome,then that would be a fantasy wish...but the fact that it was Ottawa sportscaster bring up there could be a fix to satisfy NHL preferred location for Bedard for marketing and revenue maximization suggests it just might be in the works..
I will end with just saying that I fo nit believe luck will land us Bedard ...but rather that a healthy Chicago market generating top revenues plus the marketing opportunities to feed off the Bedard phenomenon are really both answered if he is "put" into the Chicago market...
Just saying what others are thinking...
EbonyRaptor
Registered User
This is the best fiddy post I've ever read. Well done dude.
Draft rankings st the allstar break..
1.Columbus
2.CHICAGO
3.Anaheim
4.Arizona
5.San Jose
6.Montreal
7.Vancouver
8.St.Louis
9.Philadelphia
10.Ottawa
11.Montreal(via FLA)
12.Detroit
13.Vancouver(via NYI)
14.Buffalo
15.Nashville
16.Calgary
Hawks would pick #2, #27(TB), #34, #59(TB), #66, #95(DAL) and #98
1.Columbus
2.CHICAGO
3.Anaheim
4.Arizona
5.San Jose
6.Montreal
7.Vancouver
8.St.Louis
9.Philadelphia
10.Ottawa
11.Montreal(via FLA)
12.Detroit
13.Vancouver(via NYI)
14.Buffalo
15.Nashville
16.Calgary
Hawks would pick #2, #27(TB), #34, #59(TB), #66, #95(DAL) and #98
Thanks for posting it … I guess.
I have no doubt (nor any proof) the Crosby draft was fixed.
I also have no doubt that a maximum of maybe 3 people knew about it.
It is said there was a lot of inner questions quietly asked at high levels.
All the lotteries over the last 10-15 (?) years have a surety bond from a well known accounting firm. They are not risking billions in worldwide future business to appease Gary Bettman.
Question.
Would you A) Trade #2 for #6 and 11?
Or B) for #7 and 13?
I would do it for 6-11 but not 7-13.
6 gets you 1 of Michkov, Benson or Smith.
11 gets you 1 of Cristall, Yager or Ritchie
I’m just not sold on the 2 and 3 guys like others are.
Comparing scoring paces vs.USHL competition in their D-1years:
Fantilli G/PG .6851
P/PG 1.37
2021/22 Chicago Steel
Will Smith G/PG .3888
P/PG .7777
2021/22 USNTDP
Jack Hughes G/PG .7777
P/PG 2.0
2017/18 USNTDP
Macklin Celebrini G/PG .7815
P/PG 1.5727
2022/23 Chicago Steel
(2024 Draft eligible)
Turning to draft year comparisons....Fantilli is in the NCAA so cannot use USHL competition as a measure for hom this season..
But his G/PG vs NCAA = .739 to date
P/PG vs. NCAA = 1.91 to date
Hughes draft year was 2018/19
with USNTDP vs USHL
his G/PG = .500
his P/PG = 2.0
So his goal scoring pace was worse tgan a year earlier vs.USHL and his P/OG stayed the same pace..
Will Smith 2022/23 in his draft year iscon pace for G/PG = .658
P/PG =1.81
Basically at least using USHL competition to measure (albeit different seasobs( we can see tgat Jack Hughes stagnated on this measure and actualkyvdrvkubed in goal pace..
Whereas Will Smith realky improved a lot both in goal pace and points per game pace...(so far this sesson) over what he did last season with the USNTDO vs the USHL competition.
This may indicate some guys reach ceilingsfir draft purposes earlier abdcsone do it later ..butctgen after tge draft a new ceiling for NHL level pkay is re-set..
Obviously strenth/deotvof talentvon a team also affects production level...so itctook Jack Highesxa few years mire in tge NHL to reach their heights hevnkw hass this season in NJ..
ButcU think we can see that fir Will Smith he has reakkyvblossonedvthis sesdon vs. Less than spectacular numbers lastcseadon...
Howver most scoutsxwoukd put more value on what Fantilli is doing at tge higher level of NCAA competition than what Smith is doing vs. The USHL level..
However the USNTD u18s also exhibition schedule vs. NCAa teams abd a schedule vs some prep teams..If I could add up only the scoring paces vs tte NCAA teams tgen Ivcoujdxconoare Will Smith to Fanrukli for thisxseason on the same measure of conoetition..But I do not have that breakdown ...I believe they lump on all the non-USHL schedule of the USBTDP u18s into the same stats so there is no breakdown of just the games vs NCAA teams ...ratger they include games vs prep schools in these non-USHL games stats ..
It may be possible to go game by game to sort this out...but that is too much research for me to do..
Fantilli G/PG .6851
P/PG 1.37
2021/22 Chicago Steel
Will Smith G/PG .3888
P/PG .7777
2021/22 USNTDP
Jack Hughes G/PG .7777
P/PG 2.0
2017/18 USNTDP
Macklin Celebrini G/PG .7815
P/PG 1.5727
2022/23 Chicago Steel
(2024 Draft eligible)
Turning to draft year comparisons....Fantilli is in the NCAA so cannot use USHL competition as a measure for hom this season..
But his G/PG vs NCAA = .739 to date
P/PG vs. NCAA = 1.91 to date
Hughes draft year was 2018/19
with USNTDP vs USHL
his G/PG = .500
his P/PG = 2.0
So his goal scoring pace was worse tgan a year earlier vs.USHL and his P/OG stayed the same pace..
Will Smith 2022/23 in his draft year iscon pace for G/PG = .658
P/PG =1.81
Basically at least using USHL competition to measure (albeit different seasobs( we can see tgat Jack Hughes stagnated on this measure and actualkyvdrvkubed in goal pace..
Whereas Will Smith realky improved a lot both in goal pace and points per game pace...(so far this sesson) over what he did last season with the USNTDO vs the USHL competition.
This may indicate some guys reach ceilingsfir draft purposes earlier abdcsone do it later ..butctgen after tge draft a new ceiling for NHL level pkay is re-set..
Obviously strenth/deotvof talentvon a team also affects production level...so itctook Jack Highesxa few years mire in tge NHL to reach their heights hevnkw hass this season in NJ..
ButcU think we can see that fir Will Smith he has reakkyvblossonedvthis sesdon vs. Less than spectacular numbers lastcseadon...
Howver most scoutsxwoukd put more value on what Fantilli is doing at tge higher level of NCAA competition than what Smith is doing vs. The USHL level..
However the USNTD u18s also exhibition schedule vs. NCAa teams abd a schedule vs some prep teams..If I could add up only the scoring paces vs tte NCAA teams tgen Ivcoujdxconoare Will Smith to Fanrukli for thisxseason on the same measure of conoetition..But I do not have that breakdown ...I believe they lump on all the non-USHL schedule of the USBTDP u18s into the same stats so there is no breakdown of just the games vs NCAA teams ...ratger they include games vs prep schools in these non-USHL games stats ..
It may be possible to go game by game to sort this out...but that is too much research for me to do..
Last edited:
I’m no scout by any stretch, but I’m really liking Carlsson.
clydesdale line
Connor BeJesus
- Jan 10, 2012
- 25,767
- 24,807
I like him more than Fantilli to be honest. Fantilli has the better tools, Carlsson has the better hockey sense.
EbonyRaptor
Registered User
So, would I rather have Fantilli or Benson AND Cristall?
That's a toughie ... I think the Hawks need more size in their top-6 prospects - Reichel and Nazar are not big. Fantilli or Carlsson would give them skill AND size. While I don't think it's as cut and dry as a quality vs quantity proposition usually is because the Hawks need quantity of top prospects - I think I would have to come down on the side of getting one of the big centermen.
- Dec 15, 2015
- 5,572
- 3,381
Wheeler posting his minor league system rankings and he is down to 6 and not hit the Hawks yet. So top 5 system according to his ranking.
MicronMega
Registered User
Larmer83
I'm taking the high road moving forward.
Kevin Musto
Hard for Bedard
- Feb 16, 2018
- 23,112
- 29,795
Hattrick Kane
Registered User
- Oct 8, 2018
- 10,520
- 15,940
I’m honestly not that shocked. Following sone of our younger guys who were recently drafted, a lot of them are playing really good hockey right now.
It also helps that we have a legit blue chipper in Korchinski, which very few teams do and we got him at 7. He’s destroying the WHL right now, and I honestly believe he has a legit shot at quarterbacking the powerplay for the Hawks next year. I’m very excited for him.
I haven’t watched enough to have an opinion on that, but it seems like Carlsson gets a bit overshadowed by the other two.
Cool, I just don’t see him as significantly better than others and the more I read/watch the more I like Michkov and Smith.
I’ve read a ton about your boy Cristall. I can see Michkov and Cristall both as “Kane clones”. Two good offensively gifted snipers.
Nasar should be in the top 6 and I think you’re selling Greene short.
Then is Reichel a wing again? And then there is next years top 5 pick as well.
I know how important center is. But I don’t think it hurts the hawks to pass on Fantilli. … I’d probably prefer Carlsson.
* Except for the WJC my opinion was formed from reading several articles and probably 4 or 5 video clips of each player
It’s my opinion based on that info. Not intended to be an expert draft analysis.
if the Hawks get moved down to 4 from 2 by neither MTL or VAN...sure
Montreal at 6 and 11 are looking at getting Will Smith and Ryan Leonard, both USDP centres...not too shabby
- Dec 15, 2015
- 5,572
- 3,381
If the Hawks move down to 4 I would rather draft Michkov than make that trade.
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