Prospect Info: 2023 NHL Draft - Potential Selection Discussion

[Fogelhund]

Interesting analysis on Treliving's drafting, trends, and past success.

Analyzing Brad Treliving's Draft History | PPP Leafs

Analyzing the draft history of Brad Treliving with the Calgary Flames and seeing how he stacks up against Kyle Dubas and the Maple Leafs. No reason, why do you ask?

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Flames GM Brad Treliving’s Draft History - The Hockey Writers Flames History Latest News, Analysis & More

Calgary Flames GM Brad Treliving has helmed the team at six NHL Entry Drafts. Revisit the general manager's draft history from 2014 to 2019 in this article.

thehockeywriters.com

 

[Maplebeasts]

This is the right approach to drafting.

 

[thewave]

This is the right approach to drafting.

Think he means trade for someone.

 

[ErnieLeafs]

Hope Treliving puts a priority on drafting defensemen. Get the back end solidified and build from the net out. If you trade a core 4 player, make it for Hellebuyk and players.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Hope Treliving puts a priority on drafting defensemen. Get the back end solidified and build from the net out. If you trade a core 4 player, make it for Hellebuyk and players.

Terrible idea. You want to invest in a goalie hitting his 30's and needing a new deal which is almost certainly going to age poorly? Not saying Hellebuyck is Markstrom, but hasn't Treliving already learned this from Markstrom? And we also have to trade one of our core players on top of it?

Goalies are important for playoff success but they are also extremely volatile. Even the top guys have their ebbs and flows; just perhaps less than worse goalies. But we are seeing more and more that guys who are complete nobodies are taking their teams far: Khudobin took Dallas to the Finals; Hill has taken Vegas to the finals and he wasn't even their backup to start the year; Binnington comes out of nowhere and wins St. Louis a Cup; Washington and Pittsburgh effectively tandemed their way to their Cups because they couldn't trust their Vezina-caliber starters the entire way... Or heck, even Bobrovsky (a 10.5 mill goalie) was benched in favour of a 3rd stringer before taking the job back and running with it all the way to the Finals. Akira Schmid, who was Jersey's like 4th stringer to start the year, also outdueled reigning Vezina winner Shesterykin in the first round too. A half broken Mike Smith beats out Vezina finalist Markstrom, although that was more so because Markstrom gave a historically awful performance.

Point is, Samsonov and Woll have proven enough to be our goalies for next year... And we could invest all of those assets only for Hellebuyck to suck as bad as he did this past year for Winnipeg (although the team in front of him certainly did not help much). Samsonov had his rough moments, but he did something that Campbell and Andersen never could and that was come up big when we needed him (and not give up too many back breaking goals). Against Vasilevsky no less. And Woll gave the Leafs plenty of chances to win against Florida too, but Bobrovsky is just playing like a man possessed.

We need those two to come through, but if we want to truly improve our chances of winning, we are better off investing in making sure our forward depth is strong and our defense is able to rebound from a poor playoff performance.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Terrible idea. You want to invest in a goalie hitting his 30's and needing a new deal which is almost certainly going to age poorly? Not saying Hellebuyck is Markstrom, but hasn't Treliving already learned this from Markstrom? And we also have to trade one of our core players on top of it?

Goalies are important for playoff success but they are also extremely volatile. Even the top guys have their ebbs and flows; just perhaps less than worse goalies. But we are seeing more and more that guys who are complete nobodies are taking their teams far: Khudobin took Dallas to the Finals; Hill has taken Vegas to the finals and he wasn't even their backup to start the year; Binnington comes out of nowhere and wins St. Louis a Cup; Washington and Pittsburgh effectively tandemed their way to their Cups because they couldn't trust their Vezina-caliber starters the entire way... Or heck, even Bobrovsky (a 10.5 mill goalie) was benched in favour of a 3rd stringer before taking the job back and running with it all the way to the Finals. Akira Schmid, who was Jersey's like 4th stringer to start the year, also outdueled reigning Vezina winner Shesterykin in the first round too. A half broken Mike Smith beats out Vezina finalist Markstrom, although that was more so because Markstrom gave a historically awful performance.

Point is, Samsonov and Woll have proven enough to be our goalies for next year... And we could invest all of those assets only for Hellebuyck to suck as bad as he did this past year for Winnipeg (although the team in front of him certainly did not help much). Samsonov had his rough moments, but he did something that Campbell and Andersen never could and that was come up big when we needed him (and not give up too many back breaking goals). Against Vasilevsky no less. And Woll gave the Leafs plenty of chances to win against Florida too, but Bobrovsky is just playing like a man possessed.

We need those two to come through, but if we want to truly improve our chances of winning, we are better off investing in making sure our forward depth is strong and our defense is able to rebound from a poor playoff performance.

I like Helley but he's probably going to want a raise but age curve and length of contract make it unappealing.

If I was going to chase a goalie out there, it would be Saros but it would be low on my list of priorities. Samsonov was just fine and I believe Woll earned his chance.

 

[LeafGrief]

I will yet again hope for a 6'2+ defenseman who can skate. I saw Oliver Bonk play this year and while he wasn't exciting, he looked like a big, toolsy guy who could develop into a solid player. Unfortunately, the Rags are drafting ahead of us and they will probably pick him up just like they took Schneider and Miller when we should have.

 

[fahad203]

I will yet again hope for a 6'2+ defenseman who can skate. I saw Oliver Bonk play this year and while he wasn't exciting, he looked like a big, toolsy guy who could develop into a solid player. Unfortunately, the Rags are drafting ahead of us and they will probably pick him up just like they took Schneider and Miller when we should have.

I felt old when Nik Antropov son was draft eligible.
Olive Bonk, who's dad Radek was supposed to be the next Jagr

Life comes at you pretty fast

 

[Maplebeasts]

I will yet again hope for a 6'2+ defenseman who can skate. I saw Oliver Bonk play this year and while he wasn't exciting, he looked like a big, toolsy guy who could develop into a solid player. Unfortunately, the Rags are drafting ahead of us and they will probably pick him up just like they took Schneider and Miller when we should have.

Miller is good. Schneider isn’t. You can also get a lot more upside than Bonk at 28.

 

[horner]

I will yet again hope for a 6'2+ defenseman who can skate. I saw Oliver Bonk play this year and while he wasn't exciting, he looked like a big, toolsy guy who could develop into a solid player. Unfortunately, the Rags are drafting ahead of us and they will probably pick him up just like they took Schneider and Miller when we should have.

In the mold of Brodie.
And Hunter will teach him how to be a good pro.
He and Dickerson will be there top pairing d next yr.
He couldn't be in a better program

Miller is good. Schneider isn’t. You can also get a lot more upside than Bonk at 28.

He will be that steady dman thatvwe will be looking for in the future Brodie

 

[LeafGrief]

Miller is good. Schneider isn’t. You can also get a lot more upside than Bonk at 28.

It never ceases to amaze me at how little people on this website value the "upside" of a 2nd pairing D who can play 20 minutes a night. You don't have to draft offense first waterbugs and hope they learn how to defend in the AHL to get upside, you can also draft guys with tools and hope that they learn to dominate with those tools. 99/100 times, "upside" is a proxy for how many points the kid puts up in junior.

 

[Maplebeasts]

It never ceases to amaze me at how little people on this website value the "upside" of a 2nd pairing D who can play 20 minutes a night. You don't have to draft offense first waterbugs and hope they learn how to defend in the AHL to get upside, you can also draft guys with tools and hope that they learn to dominate with those tools. 99/100 times, "upside" is a proxy for how many points the kid puts up in junior.

I would rather take someone like Gulyayev, Dragicevic, Musty or Brindley if they are there. Bonk likely maxes out as a second pair D if his development works out well. If I’m drafting in the first I want to take someone who can turn out to be a top pairing/first line calibre player if I develop them correctly.

 

[LeafGrief]

I would rather take someone like Gulyayev, Dragicevic, Musty or Brindley if they are there. Bonk likely maxes out as a second pair D if his development works out well. If I’m drafting in the first I want to take someone who can turn out to be a top pairing/first line calibre player if I develop them correctly.

Citation needed.

My favourite part of prospect discussions is when people make up ceilings and floors for kids. When you're drafting outside of the top5, players are magic beans. You pick the magic beans that you like the most and then hope they sprout. NHL bluelines are full of top pairing guys who were late round picks and developed into steady two way players. I like magic beans that are 6'2 defenders and can play two-way hockey.

 

[horner]

It never ceases to amaze me at how little people on this website value the "upside" of a 2nd pairing D who can play 20 minutes a night. You don't have to draft offense first waterbugs and hope they learn how to defend in the AHL to get upside, you can also draft guys with tools and hope that they learn to dominate with those tools. 99/100 times, "upside" is a proxy for how many points the kid puts up in junior.

The thing that people may not know about Bonk is that he played on the PP.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Citation needed.

My favourite part of prospect discussions is when people make up ceilings and floors for kids. When you're drafting outside of the top5, players are magic beans. You pick the magic beans that you like the most and then hope they sprout. NHL bluelines are full of top pairing guys who were late round picks and developed into steady two way players. I like magic beans that are 6'2 defenders and can play two-way hockey.

We are talking about a guy who played on the power play for one of the best teams in the OHL. Why would I think Bonk is higher upside than someone like Gulyayev or Dragicevic who have high end skill and elite production?

 

[LeafGrief]

We are talking about a guy who played on the power play for one of the best teams in the OHL. Why would I think Bonk is higher upside than someone like Gulyayev or Dragicevic who have high end skill and elite production?

Is this a trick question? He’s a defenseman, not a winger. His ability to defend, positioning, and IQ are fundamental to his game, not production. Brodie had 14 points for us this year playing most of it on the first pair.

Seriously, you’re just proving my point that upside means more points in junior.

 

[Green Snow Storm]

Simashev would be a dream at 28, while many rankings have him around our range I think he’s going to go in the top 15-20. Maybe even higher.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Is this a trick question? He’s a defenseman, not a winger. His ability to defend, positioning, and IQ are fundamental to his game, not production. Brodie had 14 points for us this year playing most of it on the first pair.

Seriously, you’re just proving my point that upside means more points in junior.

Defensemen that put up big point totals are also really valuable in today’s NHL, especially if they aren’t defensive liabilities (like Gulyayev). I am not passing on Gulyayev’s offensive talent for Bonk, even ignoring production.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Simashev would be a dream at 28, while many rankings have him around our range I think he’s going to go in the top 15-20. Maybe even higher.

I'm hoping it's some dumb luck it keeps coming with teams having a guy 1 ahead of him or scared of the Russian factor.

Doesn't seem like there is a negative except for the fact he is Russian from what I have read but that's about all I can contribute

 

[Green Snow Storm]

I'm hoping it's some dumb luck it keeps coming with teams having a guy 1 ahead of him or scared of the Russian factor.

Doesn't seem like there is a negative except for the fact he is Russian from what I have read but that's about all I can contribute

His offence is largely unknown, but the guy is great defensively and in transition, any offence would be a bonus, but that kid could be a defensive stalwart for years in this league.

 

[LeafGrief]

Defensemen that put up big point totals are also really valuable in today’s NHL, especially if they aren’t defensive liabilities (like Gulyayev). I am not passing on Gulyayev’s offensive talent for Bonk, even ignoring production.

Not if they can’t play defense, Erik Gustafsson comes to mind. Nobody wants a 3rd pairing power play quarterback, they want guys who can play 22 minutes a night of tough matchups.

Applying winger metrics to drafting defensemen is a tale as old as time for this forum, but it has never made sense. Every year we piss and moan about our blue line and needing these exact types of players, and every year people want to draft the guys who have the highest point totals in junior. Draft BPA, but points are mostly good for grousing on the prospects board and collecting likes by posting hot takes about “upside”

 

[Menzinger]

 

[tmlms13]

I felt old when Nik Antropov son was draft eligible.
Olive Bonk, who's dad Radek was supposed to be the next Jagr

Life comes at you pretty fast

He was

 

[ErnieLeafs]

Terrible idea. You want to invest in a goalie hitting his 30's and needing a new deal which is almost certainly going to age poorly? Not saying Hellebuyck is Markstrom, but hasn't Treliving already learned this from Markstrom? And we also have to trade one of our core players on top of it?

Goalies are important for playoff success but they are also extremely volatile. Even the top guys have their ebbs and flows; just perhaps less than worse goalies. But we are seeing more and more that guys who are complete nobodies are taking their teams far: Khudobin took Dallas to the Finals; Hill has taken Vegas to the finals and he wasn't even their backup to start the year; Binnington comes out of nowhere and wins St. Louis a Cup; Washington and Pittsburgh effectively tandemed their way to their Cups because they couldn't trust their Vezina-caliber starters the entire way... Or heck, even Bobrovsky (a 10.5 mill goalie) was benched in favour of a 3rd stringer before taking the job back and running with it all the way to the Finals. Akira Schmid, who was Jersey's like 4th stringer to start the year, also outdueled reigning Vezina winner Shesterykin in the first round too. A half broken Mike Smith beats out Vezina finalist Markstrom, although that was more so because Markstrom gave a historically awful performance.

Point is, Samsonov and Woll have proven enough to be our goalies for next year... And we could invest all of those assets only for Hellebuyck to suck as bad as he did this past year for Winnipeg (although the team in front of him certainly did not help much). Samsonov had his rough moments, but he did something that Campbell and Andersen never could and that was come up big when we needed him (and not give up too many back breaking goals). Against Vasilevsky no less. And Woll gave the Leafs plenty of chances to win against Florida too, but Bobrovsky is just playing like a man possessed.

We need those two to come through, but if we want to truly improve our chances of winning, we are better off investing in making sure our forward depth is strong and our defense is able to rebound from a poor playoff performance.

He’s 30, or going to be. If you can get 3-4 years of what he’s capable of, that may be enough to win a cup. Call me crazy, but we can develop Woll behind him in tandem, and I’d take the goalie who can win you a playoff series himself, over my other options.

I like Sammy, but he’s not Hellebuyk.

 

[Gallagbi]

That feels like a lot of them re entering