Prospect Info: 2023 NHL Draft - Potential Selection Discussion

[SeaOfBlue]

Hill isnt as good as he's seeming to play... he isnt a full time starter material.
Jarry is the only real 'starter', and he has injury issues almost as bad as Murray
the older ones are slightly better

Hill and Jarry are probably the best of the crop, so all the more reason why we shouldn't need to buy out Murray just to save as much as we would if we just retained him for 50% (plus it wouldn't need to be a dead cap over 2 years).

The other thing is that Hill and Jarry are still risks who would need to get decent term (at least 3 or 4 years). Murray is a one-year bet. Teams would probably be happier just giving up a mid-round pick than give up the term... especially if they miss out on Raanta/Andersen/Blackwood/Varlamov.

 

[Thornbury]

Exactly what I've been saying for a while.

This is effectively how the UFA goalie market breaks down:

Good, young-ish tandem guys: Adin Hill, Tristan Jarry, Joonas Korpisalo, MacKenzie Blackwood (likely non-tendered) - PIT, OTT, DET, LA, CAR, SEA
Solid veteran 1B's: Frederik Andersen, Antti Raanta, Semyon Varlamov - VGK, NYI, CAR, DET, SEA
Older backups who may have a little bit left in the tank: Cam Talbot, Martin Jones, James Reimer, Alex Stalock - NYI, SJS, NYR, WPG, TBL, VAN, SEA
Slightly younger backups who may get jobs behind guys like Shestyerkin/Vasilevsky/Sorokin: David Rittich, Alex Nedeljkovic, Anthony Stolarz, Alex Lyon, Joey Daccord - NYI, SJS, NYR, WPG, TBL, VAN, FLA, SEA
Guys who should just retire: Brian Elliott, Jonathan Quick, Craig Anderson, Thomas Greiss, Jaroslav Halak

The rest are #3's at best and may find jobs in BUF, STL, ANA, TOR, PHI, NJD, NYI, etc.

Hill, Jarry, and Korpisalo are likely getting nice deals. Blackwood, Andersen, Raanta, and Varlamov are likely getting deals in the 2-2.5 mill range (Varlamov likely gets another 1-1.5 mill in performance bonuses to take it up to the 3.5 mill range). The rest are probably under 1.5 mill.

Murray with full retention would likely fall in that 2nd category with Blackwood, Andersen, Raanta, and Varlamov, and I could see us getting like a 4th for him if we do that.

And I believe when you suggest full retention it is 50%, the max a team can retain. That would work for us, and for the team we trade with.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

And I believe when you suggest full retention it is 50%, the max a team can retain. That would work for us, and for the team we trade with.

It would be 50% of his current cap hit, not his overall cap hit. So something like just under 2.35 mill. Plus 50% of his real money, which would be 3 mill (since he makes 8 mill in real dollars next year, with Ottawa covering 2 mill already).

For the Leafs, who can probably afford to have the 2.35 mill in dead cap this year before new extensions are kicking in more than 2 mill next year, plus just not having dead money on the books for 2 years, it just makes a lot more sense than the buyout.

Buyout should only be in the case that literally nobody wants him and that is the best remaining option. And we should know that before the first buyout window on June 30th since the draft would have already come and gone, and teams probably have a good idea about their plans in net ahead of free agency.

 

[Phion Keneuf]

Late pick on Ben Gaudreau?

Sharks 3rd rounder in 2021, rated their top G prospect before he decided to re-enter the draft.

Benjamin Gaudreau Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com

Statistics of Benjamin Gaudreau, a hockey player from Corbeil, ONT born Jan 11 2003 who was active from 2019 to 2024.

www.hockeydb.com

Not the best OHL numbers, but showed some promise in the playoffs.

 

[nuck]

Buyout isn't gonna happen. If anything we'd eat some of the salary and get the highest pick we possibly could for him and maybe an AHL player or something. I think we could trade the contract without eating salary but maybe it's worth retaining some if it can get you a pick in a round or 2 earlier.

I don't know that you are getting anything for him even with the retention. He was a .906 goalie on a weak Sens club and was a .903 on a much defensively better Leafs team, and again with the injuries.

Unless he is going to a club spending to the cap the $3M net salary is what they will care about most and he has proven so brittle he almost forces you into a 3 goalie rotation. I think the sweetener goes the other way and that is what makes him more attractive than a $2M UFA. Maybe a prospect rather than a pick because they don't have a lot. I would be ecstatic if they didn't have to give value to get rid of him. I am sure they will look into a trade before a buy out is considered but the window is only a couple of weeks away.

 

[LaPlante94]

I don't know that you are getting anything for him even with the retention. He was a .906 goalie on a weak Sens club and was a .903 on a much defensively better Leafs team, and again with the injuries.

Unless he is going to a club spending to the cap the $3M net salary is what they will care about most and he has proven so brittle he almost forces you into a 3 goalie rotation. I think the sweetener goes the other way and that is what makes him more attractive than a $2M UFA. Maybe a prospect rather than a pick because they don't have a lot. I would be ecstatic if they didn't have to give value to get rid of him. I am sure they will look into a trade before a buy out is considered but the window is only a couple of weeks away.

If you look at just the save % then you aren't getting the entire picture of a goalie usually, especially when they only played like 20 games or so. He had some bad games early in the season and then started playing much better and then got hurt. Came back and it was usually the same thing. Everytime he got in a groove and started looking like a very good goalie he got hurt and some of the injuries were just unlucky. He went on a run where he saved our asses many games and stole games for us. He did the same thing in Ottawa too. If he can stay healthy he's a very good goalie and any team in the league will take that chance for 1 year, especially if he'd only be 2.3 mil towards the cap if we retained 50%.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Late pick on Ben Gaudreau?

Sharks 3rd rounder in 2021, rated their top G prospect before he decided to re-enter the draft.

Benjamin Gaudreau Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com

Statistics of Benjamin Gaudreau, a hockey player from Corbeil, ONT born Jan 11 2003 who was active from 2019 to 2024.

www.hockeydb.com

Not the best OHL numbers, but showed some promise in the playoffs.

Easy pass. I liked Gaudreau in his draft year, but his numbers are nowhere near good enough and he lost Team Canada's net to Thomas Milic, who is also likely not going to be drafted.

I'd consider him on an AHL contract after next year. Cavallin is going to either be in the AHL or out of the organization (unless he really wants to stick around and replaces McKay as the "veteran"), so we would need a new young guy for the Growlers.

If we want a goalie, either go for one of the big guns or just avoid it altogether unless you like Peck, Clara, Zavragin, Hellnemo, or want to take a swing at one of the longer shot CHL prospects (Milic, Stoesser, Meneghin, Bowen, or Miller) but that is usually not worth it.

 

[trellaine201]

I sure hope we move up by trading a big piece away. Its quite obvious our team is built for regular season. Who cares if we get 100 points every year. Means shit come playoffs.

 

[Menzinger]

Imo a new GM is less likely to trade a 1st away - it will be the first opportunity to have a major decision on the team, they likely won't want to give it up.

If they try and dump Murray via trade - I think a prospect that the GM has no attachment to is more likely to be the sweetner than a pick

 

[francis246]

Imo a new GM is less likely to trade a 1st away - it will be the first opportunity to have a major decision on the team, they likely won't want to give it up.

If they try and dump Murray via trade - I think a prospect that the GM has no attachment to is more likely to be the sweetner than a pick

I’d have to agree with this, I don’t see them trading the pick

 

[hockeywiz542]

NHL Draft 2023: Pronman and Wheeler answer the biggest questions facing NHL teams

Consider this our experts' pre-draft press conference of sorts.

theathletic.com

Toronto Maple Leafs

The Leafs are in a position where they have to find contributions from prospects on cheap contracts reasonably soon (Hello 2021 pick and new golden boy in Toronto, Matthew Knies). What are the chances of the Leafs finding a player at No. 28 who will be ready for the NHL in, say, 2025, and what are some options for pro-ready(ish) picks? —Joshua Kloke

Pronman: Like Knies you can keep an eye on late birthdates, especially those who are physically developed. Charlie Stramel, Gavin Brindley or Nico Myatovic fit that bill.

Wheeler: Corey’s list sounds about right to me. Oscar Fisker Mølgaard’s pro experience, Kasper Halttunen’s physical maturity, and Ethan Gauthier’s pro-style game could all maybe help them make the jump faster than some of their peers in that range, but the middle of those three would need to make a lot of progress in some important areas, and all three feel like long shots to get to where Knies has got along a similar timeline.

 

[The Nic]

I sure hope we move up by trading a big piece away. Its quite obvious our team is built for regular season. Who cares if we get 100 points every year. Means shit come playoffs.

Right. Far better to miss the playoffs entirely... which we used to do every year with ease!

 

[tmlms13]

Imo a new GM is less likely to trade a 1st away - it will be the first opportunity to have a major decision on the team, they likely won't want to give it up.

If they try and dump Murray via trade - I think a prospect that the GM has no attachment to is more likely to be the sweetner than a pick

I could see them just trade down a bit to get rid of Murray.

If you trade 28th + Murray for a early 2nd. Sure you're trading away a first on paper so it looks bad, but won't be when you look at deeper.

Detroit has 41, 42, & 43 and a ton of cap space. I'd offer Murray + 28th for one of those 3 picks

 

[LaPlante94]

Right. Far better to miss the playoffs entirely... which we used to do every year with ease!

Back when our #1C was a 3rd liner at best. I'm sure if we moved a core piece now we'll go back to missing the playoffs easily just like before.

 

[Captain Crunch]

Right. Far better to miss the playoffs entirely... which we used to do every year with ease!

Compared to being in the playoffs every year only to go out in the first round (in epic fashion against the Habs), and barely get into the 2nd round only to go out quickly. And keep this insanity going. Yeah, that's so much better. smh!!!

 

[Fogelhund]

Compared to being in the playoffs every year only to go out in the first round (in epic fashion against the Habs), and barely get into the 2nd round only to go out quickly. And keep this insanity going. Yeah, that's so much better. smh!!!

Yes, being the in playoffs > not being in the playoffs.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

NHL Draft 2023: Pronman and Wheeler answer the biggest questions facing NHL teams

Consider this our experts' pre-draft press conference of sorts.

theathletic.com

Toronto Maple Leafs

The Leafs are in a position where they have to find contributions from prospects on cheap contracts reasonably soon (Hello 2021 pick and new golden boy in Toronto, Matthew Knies). What are the chances of the Leafs finding a player at No. 28 who will be ready for the NHL in, say, 2025, and what are some options for pro-ready(ish) picks? —Joshua Kloke

Pronman: Like Knies you can keep an eye on late birthdates, especially those who are physically developed. Charlie Stramel, Gavin Brindley or Nico Myatovic fit that bill.

Wheeler: Corey’s list sounds about right to me. Oscar Fisker Mølgaard’s pro experience, Kasper Halttunen’s physical maturity, and Ethan Gauthier’s pro-style game could all maybe help them make the jump faster than some of their peers in that range, but the middle of those three would need to make a lot of progress in some important areas, and all three feel like long shots to get to where Knies has got along a similar timeline.

It's almost like all those years of taking 5'9 170lbs guys may not have been the best option if we wanted to develop playoff warriors.

 

[Captain Crunch]

Yes, being the in playoffs > not being in the playoffs.

Can't argue with that, but if that is the best that this core can do, it's time to move on. Would not mind in the least having to miss the playoffs for a bit if it meant ending up with a core that could actually win some playoff rounds and become a legitimate Cup contender.
Winning playoff rounds, starting on time, not shying away from contact > winning only one game in the 2nd round in 5 attempts with this core, not starting on time, shying away from contact

 

[Fogelhund]

Can't argue with that, but if that is the best that this core can do, it's time to move on. Would not mind in the least having to miss the playoffs for a bit if it meant ending up with a core that could actually win some playoff rounds and become a legitimate Cup contender.
Winning playoff rounds, starting on time, not shying away from contact > winning only one game in the 2nd round in 5 attempts with this core, not starting on time, shying away from contact

I get what you are saying, and why you are saying it. Matthews was amongst the leaders in hits for forwards in the playoffs, Tavares is up there too. Even Marner used his body some... Nylander, well, he never will.. Interesting... one of the Leafs forwards still has the most hits so far in the playoffs.

To me, this failure completely comes down to shooting percentage. Matthews at 10.2 when his last few seasons have been 17%. Tavares at 9.1 vs. career 13.1 Nylander at 8.5% vs 13.7 regular season.

Matthews shooting wasn't to his expected all season long, and we must question why. Another wrist injury, permanent impairment? Matthews at 17% shooting... along with one other guy shooting at a normal rate, and we are still playing. But to focus on Matthews for a minute.... Is there a reasonable expectation that his shooting will return to what is once was, or has he regressed?

If Matthews shooting has regressed, then he becomes a good, but not elite player. To me, that's the biggest question of this offseason.

The core needs to win, and they haven't... that's a big problem. Starting on time has been a problem at times, as has conceding goals late in the periods. At times, these guys aren't focused enough. I don't think the physicality was a problem with this team. The shooting was. If Matthews elite ability to shoot is done.... then this group is done too. It's really that simple. We can complain about a billion other things, but if Matthews is no longer the shooter he was... it's over.

 

[uncleben]

We're way off topic in here.

 

[Makaveli]

Hoping we can somehow get Riley Heidt, doubt he will fall to us though. If not him then Otto Stenberg.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Is there a prototype or specific element that stands out as something that Treliving looks for in a draft ?

 

[daethfromabove1979]

Is there a prototype or specific element that stands out as something that Treliving looks for in a draft ?

He seems to pick a lot of players out of CHL/JrA, 35 out of 54 picks (65%).

Dubas only has 14 out of 35 selections from CHL/JrA, (40%).

 

[Menzinger]

 

[LaPlante94]

Is there a prototype or specific element that stands out as something that Treliving looks for in a draft ?

I feel like with us actually having a development program and a very good one and analytics department he might change the way he drafts a bit while mixing in some of his old ways. He seems to have a pretty good eye for defensemen unless those picks were from scouts.