Prospect Info: 2023 NHL Draft - Potential Selection Discussion

[LaPlante94]

If I’m a GM, I’m not playing historical percentages on picks and I’m leaning heavy on scouts to find the true gems in each draft. The Dubas era just struck me as playing the odds and that’s not all of it. There’s got to be insight as well.

Yeah if you have a lot of picks or your normal amount then why not trade up or stay put and pick where your original pick is at, but if you're in our position and only have 3 picks and your 2nd pick isn't all the way until the 5th round then I'd like to give my scouts 2 chances to try and find a gem in that 2nd/3rd round range instead of trying to just hit on that 1 with the 28th pick. Say we trade back to like 35 and get another pick in the 50s do you really think we're gonna miss out on a player within those 8 picks that'll be better than the players we could get at 35 and 50 something? Get a chance to draft 2 top 6 players or top 4 D man over 1. Also in the later rounds from like 5-7 you might as well trade back as many times as you can to get as many picks as you can get to let your scouts really try to find hidden gems in leagues/places many scouts might not scout as well. Unless someone very talented and projected earlier drops and you want to take that swing on them.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Yeah if you have a lot of picks or your normal amount then why not trade up or stay put and pick where your original pick is at, but if you're in our position and only have 3 picks and your 2nd pick isn't all the way until the 5th round then I'd like to give my scouts 2 chances to try and find a gem in that 2nd/3rd round range instead of trying to just hit on that 1 with the 28th pick. Say we trade back to like 35 and get another pick in the 50s do you really think we're gonna miss out on a player within those 8 picks that'll be better than the players we could get at 35 and 50 something? Get a chance to draft 2 top 6 players or top 4 D man over 1. Also in the later rounds from like 5-7 you might as well trade back as many times as you can to get as many picks as you can get to let your scouts really try to find hidden gems in leagues/places many scouts might not scout as well. Unless someone very talented and projected earlier drops and you want to take that swing on them.

For me, it is about maximizing the value of the draft and getting as many picks in surplus parts of the draft as possible. In this draft, 28 does not vary a lot between our pick and a pick that is ~10 spots lower, so trading down makes the most sense. However, if someone unexpectedly falls, then that is another question.

At the same time, if the draft sucks where we would get another pick, then it may make more sense to just keep the pick. In this draft, however, trading down could put us in a prime range for one of the secondary goalie prospects, or we could possibly even draft one of the better ones with our lower pick. There are also some solid center and defensive prospects available in the top 75.

 

[Coaches Coroner]

Nah I disagree. I think you grab the most bluechip thing you can get your hands on and if that’s trading up you do it. That’s where the real scouting comes into focus and you move off all that Dubas stuff about odds, percentages and that betting language he loves so much.

This is making the assumption that there is a "most bluechip" prospect on the board. We're talking about the late 1st, very few blue chips and in this draft there are lots of guys from 28-40 that are roughly interchangeable from a current value/potential standpoint. If your scouts tell you "we like 10 guys in this range" and you can drop back 5-8 spots, get 1 and lean on your scouts for their next favourite pick in the mid/late 2nd, you do it if they're bullish on a player you can still get around there.

 

[Peasy]

Oh jeez, 5'8? Yea that's a no go for me.

He plays like a gallagher.

But, Honzek, Willander could be good picks too if theyre still there at 28.

Should have plenty of options.

 

[hockeywiz542]

NHL Mock Draft 2.0: Leo Carlsson rising after strong play at Worlds

Corey Pronman makes his second attempt at predicting how the first round of the 2023 NHL Entry Draft will play out.

theathletic.com

24. Nashville (via Edmonton): David Edstrom, C, Frolunda Jr. (SWEDEN-JR.)

I’m not sure where Edstrom will go on draft day. Some scouts think he will end up much higher than No. 24, some a lot lower. Regardles, for Nashville a two-way center with size who can skate and has some offense would be a great start to the Barry Trotz regime.

25. St. Louis (via Toronto): Quentin Musty, LW, Sudbury (OHL)

Musty is a bit of a polarizing player due to his so-so footspeed and compete, while also being a big forward with dynamic offensive abilities. I could see him go earlier than this, but he would be a solid fit for the Blues at No. 25 still.

26. San Jose (via New Jersey): Michael Hrabal, G, Omaha (USHL)

I suspect Hrabal will be the first goalie picked, and he could be a late first or very early second-round pick. Big athletic goaltenders like Sebastian Cossa went No. 15, and Mads Sogaard went No. 37, so that’s the rough ballpark I’m thinking for Hrabal, closer to the Sogaard side. The Sharks need a goalie of the future, but so do Colorado, Toronto, Vegas and Montreal — just to name the clubs with this need and late first-round picks.

27. Colorado: Carson Rehkopf, LW, Kitchener (OHL)

I think Rehkopf will be a late first-round or early second on draft day due to his unique toolkit as a big center who can skate, has skill, and has one of the best shots in the draft. He ticks a lot of the physical tools Colorado typically looks for in terms of great skating ability. I could see Gavin Brindley or Tanner Molendyk as possibilities here for those same reasons.

28. Toronto (via Boston): Etienne Morin, D, Moncton (QMJHL)

Toronto is undergoing a management change now so it’s tough to tell what direction they will go in. Morin would fit a lot of the puck-moving elements they usually covet in defensemen so for now he’s the projection.

29. St. Louis (via Dallas): Oliver Bonk, D, London (OHL)

People in the league think Bonk could go comfortably in the top 25, and I’ve mocked him there before, but it so works out he’s there at No. 29 for the Blues. He’s a big mobile puck-mover who is a right-shot and would fit into the type of blue line Doug Armstrong likes to build.

30. Carolina: Gavin Brindley, C, Michigan (BIG10)

Brindley checks a lot of the boxes Carolina tends to covet and frankly has some rhymes to Seth Jarvis, albeit in a lesser version of that player type. I could see Bradly Nadeau or Mikhail Gulyayev here as well.

31. Montreal (via Florida): Tanner Molendyk, D, Saskatoon (WHL)

Montreal takes a high-end skating and competitive defenseman in Molendyk, who has a stylistic rhyme to a player they just traded away and picked at a similar range in Alexander Romanov.

32. Vegas: Danny Nelson, C, Usa U-18 (NTDP)

Nelson helped himself with a strong U18 Worlds and I think will be a fairly early draft pick. His physical tools plus a strong compete fit into the type of player Vegas tries to build around.

 

[Leaf Rocket]

I'm not sold on Morin but maybe that's just me

 

[Stephen]

This is making the assumption that there is a "most bluechip" prospect on the board. We're talking about the late 1st, very few blue chips and in this draft there are lots of guys from 28-40 that are roughly interchangeable from a current value/potential standpoint. If your scouts tell you "we like 10 guys in this range" and you can drop back 5-8 spots, get 1 and lean on your scouts for their next favourite pick in the mid/late 2nd, you do it if they're bullish on a player you can still get around there.

Seems like every single year there's one or two gems in the 20-40 range.

Pastrnak in 2014
Aho in 2015
Thompson, Kyrou, DeBrincat in 2016
Oettinger in 2017
Miller in 2018
Kochetkov in 2019

And the trade down appears to be playing the percentages to have more lottery tickets. But you also can't consistently maneuver out of higher position to go for quantity. We got burned on the Dermott and Sandin trade downs.

 

[Coaches Coroner]

Seems like every single year there's one or two gems in the 20-40 range.

Pastrnak in 2014
Aho in 2015
Thompson, Kyrou, DeBrincat in 2016
Oettinger in 2017
Miller in 2018
Kochetkov in 2019

And the trade down appears to be playing the percentages to have more lottery tickets. But you also can't consistently maneuver out of higher position to go for quantity. We got burned on the Dermott and Sandin trade downs.

8 in a 5 year span, a few of which could have been traded down for out of the 1st round. How did trading down for Sandin "hurt" us when no one any better was taken with 25 (our original pick) or from 26-29). Not sure who you think would have been a better pick either at 25 or at 28 that would have been much better.

 

[Martin Skoula]

8 in a 5 year span, a few of which could have been traded down for out of the 1st round. How did trading down for Sandin "hurt" us when no one any better was taken with 25 (our original pick) or from 26-29). Not sure who you think would have been a better pick either at 25 or at 28 that would have been much better.

Plus in 2016 the mistake was staying at #31 to take a massive reach for a guy Hunter was 100% sure about. Having DubasAI trade down and blindly take the highest scoring D-1 CHL player would have gotten Kyrou or DeBrincat.

Historically the 1st pick of the 2nd is almost always a bust because of guys like Hunter trying to gigabrain it instead of just taking the most skilled guy left on the table, everyone wants their super secret “he should have been a first rounder” steal. Let someone else overpay for the privilege of embarrassing themselves.

 

[Stephen]

8 in a 5 year span, a few of which could have been traded down for out of the 1st round. How did trading down for Sandin "hurt" us when no one any better was taken with 25 (our original pick) or from 26-29). Not sure who you think would have been a better pick either at 25 or at 28 that would have been much better.

We should have traded up for K'Andre Miller.

 

[Coaches Coroner]

We should have traded up for K'Andre Miller.

Would Ottawa have swapped picks with us over NYR? They gave up 26 and 2nd (48) and our next pick after our 25 was 2nd (52). How much more do we add to outbid them and sway OTT into trading with a rival instead? Plenty of teams look stupid when you hand pick the outliers with plenty of hindsight.

 

[Stephen]

Would Ottawa have swapped picks with us over NYR? They gave up 26 and 2nd (48) and our next pick after our 25 was 2nd (52). How much more do we add to outbid them and sway OTT into trading with a rival instead? Plenty of teams look stupid when you hand pick the outliers with plenty of hindsight.

Dubas and Ottawa completed a number of deals over the years including pick swaps like Niemela and Hirvonen for Kleven. Don't have to make an excuse as to why they didn't make that move when their philosophy would have prevented it anyway.

 

[kk87]

I wonder if Cristall could fall to us... I can dream...

 

[Coaches Coroner]

Dubas and Ottawa completed a number of deals over the years including pick swaps like Niemela and Hirvonen for Kleven. Don't have to make an excuse as to why they didn't make that move when their philosophy would have prevented it anyway.

Less important than the part where there was another team bidding on the pick and how much more you would have had to give in a bidding war. You don't have to pretend you would have made that move on draft day without copious hindsight.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

We should have traded up for K'Andre Miller.

If the standard for getting burned on a draft pick is if a better player went higher in the draft that they didn't trade up for, pretty much every pick is a mistake. That seems like an unreasonably harsh opinion

 

[notbias]

Seems like every single year there's one or two gems in the 20-40 range.

Pastrnak in 2014
Aho in 2015
Thompson, Kyrou, DeBrincat in 2016
Oettinger in 2017
Miller in 2018
Kochetkov in 2019

And the trade down appears to be playing the percentages to have more lottery tickets. But you also can't consistently maneuver out of higher position to go for quantity. We got burned on the Dermott and Sandin trade downs.

trading down only makes sense if you don't have a preferred target. They discussed trading down when Knies was available but said he was too good to pass up.

If the standard for getting burned on a draft pick is if a better player went higher in the draft that they didn't trade up for, pretty much every pick is a mistake. That seems like an unreasonably harsh opinion

The opinion doesn't make sense

Dubas and Ottawa completed a number of deals over the years including pick swaps like Niemela and Hirvonen for Kleven. Don't have to make an excuse as to why they didn't make that move when their philosophy would have prevented it anyway.

Dubas has moved up in the draft if that is what you're implying by doesn't fit his philosophy.

 

[nuck]

I wonder if Cristall could fall to us... I can dream...

I wouldn't bet on it. Everyone but Button seems to love him

Ranked #13 by CONSOLIDATED RANKING
Ranked #8 by ELITEPROSPECTS.COM
Ranked #9 by FCHOCKEY
Ranked #16 by DAILY FACEOFF
Ranked #6 by THE HOCKEY NEWS
Ranked #18 by TSN/BOB McKENZIE
Ranked #25 by MCKEEN'S HOCKEY
Ranked #35 by TSN/CRAIG BUTTON
Ranked #15 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (NA Skaters)
Ranked #25 by SPORTSNET
Ranked #10 by RECRUIT SCOUTING
Ranked #8 by DOBBERPROSPECTS
Ranked #9 by DRAFT PROSPECTS HOCKEY
Ranked #12 by SMAHT SCOUTING

 

[Peasy]

I wouldn't bet on it. Everyone but Button seems to love him

Ranked #13 by CONSOLIDATED RANKING
Ranked #8 by ELITEPROSPECTS.COM
Ranked #9 by FCHOCKEY
Ranked #16 by DAILY FACEOFF
Ranked #6 by THE HOCKEY NEWS
Ranked #18 by TSN/BOB McKENZIE
Ranked #25 by MCKEEN'S HOCKEY
Ranked #35 by TSN/CRAIG BUTTON
Ranked #15 by NHL CENTRAL SCOUTING (NA Skaters)
Ranked #25 by SPORTSNET
Ranked #10 by RECRUIT SCOUTING
Ranked #8 by DOBBERPROSPECTS
Ranked #9 by DRAFT PROSPECTS HOCKEY
Ranked #12 by SMAHT SCOUTING

Not saying it will happen, but its possible. For example here are some of Lambert's rankings last year, ended up going 30th.

2022 NHL Entry Draft: Ranked #14 by Elite Prospects
2022 NHL Entry Draft: Ranked #10 by ISS Hockey
2022 NHL Entry Draft: Ranked #9 by FCHockey
2022 NHL Entry Draft: Ranked #42 by TSN/Craig Button
2022 NHL Entry Draft: Ranked #8 by McKeen's Hockey
2022 NHL Entry Draft: Ranked #16 by TSN/McKenzie
2022 NHL Entry Draft: Ranked #10 by NHL Central Scouting

I could see a lot of NHL people not liking Cristall.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I wonder if Cristall could fall to us... I can dream...

Out of everyone in the top 25, he is one of the more likely to fall.

He was awful at the U18's. Pretty much confirmed every concern about him.

 

[Stephen]

If the standard for getting burned on a draft pick is if a better player went higher in the draft that they didn't trade up for, pretty much every pick is a mistake. That seems like an unreasonably harsh opinion

No, K'Andre Miller was a personal fav of mine and it was disappointing to see the Rangers scoop him up, turn him into an impact defensemen and then see people talk about the Dubas trade down like it's some smart strategy... when it's never paid off.

 

[RoadWarrior]

It's almost like all those years of taking 5'9 170lbs guys may not have been the best option if we wanted to develop playoff warriors.

the problem wasn’t only the size it was their lack of toughness. Engvall is a good example of a big man who plays small.

the leafs need to draft tough players regardless of size.

No, K'Andre Miller was a personal fav of mine and it was disappointing to see the Rangers scoop him up, turn him into an impact defensemen and then see people talk about the Dubas trade down like it's some smart strategy... when it's never paid off.

Trading down never worked.

 

[BertCorbeau]

No, K'Andre Miller was a personal fav of mine and it was disappointing to see the Rangers scoop him up, turn him into an impact defensemen and then see people talk about the Dubas trade down like it's some smart strategy... when it's never paid off.

Wasn’t that trade down from 25th OA? And Miller was taken 22nd?

 

[Stephen]

Wasn’t that trade down from 25th OA? And Miller was taken 22nd?

Ottawa held the 22nd pick. Toronto held the 25th pick. Rangers held the 26th pick. St. Louis held the 29th pick.

Rangers traded a second rounder and the 26th to get to 22nd, taking K'Andre Miller.

Toronto traded down to 29th and selected Sandin, adding a third that became Simeon Der-Arguchitsev.

Ottawa got Jacob Bernard-Docker and some other guy.

St. Louis ended up with Dominik Bokk.

 

[hockeynorth]

Ottawa held the 22nd pick. Toronto held the 25th pick. Rangers held the 26th pick. St. Louis held the 29th pick.

Rangers traded a second rounder and the 26th to get to 22nd, taking K'Andre Miller.

Toronto traded down to 29th and selected Sandin, adding a third that became Simeon Der-Arguchitsev.

Ottawa got Jacob Bernard-Docker and some other guy.

St. Louis ended up with Dominik Bokk.

There was a report dubas was keeping the pick if Miller got to Toronto FYI, if that makes you feel any better. Durzi was leafs next pick, would've had to be coupled to get Miller, meaning no Muzzin or different Muzzin. Not saying whether this is right or wrong, just really weird little what if scenario if Leafs get Miller.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

the problem wasn’t only the size it was their lack of toughness. Engvall is a good example of a big man who plays small.

the leafs need to draft tough players regardless of size.


Trading down never worked.

If you take a 6'4 man that doesn't mind the dirty areas and the scoring doesn't work out, they can at least be effective 3rd/4th liners.

If you take a 5'8 skill winger and his skillset doesn't pan out they're essentially Swiss Hockey League fodder.