Prospect Info: 2023 NHL Draft - Potential Selection Discussion

[BertCorbeau]

If you take a 6'4 man that doesn't mind the dirty areas and the scoring doesn't work out, they can at least be effective 3rd/4th liners.

If you take a 5'8 skill winger and his skillset doesn't pan out they're essentially Swiss Hockey League fodder.

I think that's an oversimplification on drafting strategy

 

[BertCorbeau]

No, K'Andre Miller was a personal fav of mine and it was disappointing to see the Rangers scoop him up, turn him into an impact defensemen and then see people talk about the Dubas trade down like it's some smart strategy... when it's never paid off.

Eh I think it's a bit early to judge the drafting by Dubas to see what's truly paid off. I mean we've just starting to see the 2018 class get into NHL action.

The trade backs that netted Hirvonen/Niemela and Moldenhauer/Grebenkin have some potential to look really good.

While the trade back in 2018 to get Sandin wasn't a home run because SDA hasn't quite panned out doesn't mean it was a failure either. Dropping back a few spots and picking up an extra pick to still get a player that you seeing good value in is still a smart strategy.

It doesn't always work though .. and I'm not saying it's some new genius idea or that it should be used all the time.

 

[Stephen]

Eh I think it's a bit early to judge the drafting by Dubas to see what's truly paid off. I mean we've just starting to see the 2018 class get into NHL action.

The trade backs that netted Hirvonen/Niemela and Moldenhauer/Grebenkin have some potential to look really good.

While the trade back in 2018 to get Sandin wasn't a home run because SDA hasn't quite panned out doesn't mean it was a failure either. Dropping back a few spots and picking up an extra pick to still get a player that you seeing good value in is still a smart strategy.

It doesn't always work though .. and I'm not saying it's some new genius idea or that it should be used all the time.

Yeah I agree with your last point. There's a situational flexibility that needs to be applied to any draft situation. Trade up, down, stand pat, out. There's always a situation and a rationale that can be used, and no one's complaining if it works.

I guess my main issue with playing the percentages game is it tells me your staff is more comfortable going for quantity than accurately pinpointing and targeting something special that might be left on the board. I felt like there was a similar dynamic at play with Liam Ohgren and Danila Yurov in the 2022 draft too before Toronto did the Mrazek deal.

 

[RoadWarrior]

If you take a 6'4 man that doesn't mind the dirty areas and the scoring doesn't work out, they can at least be effective 3rd/4th liners.

If you take a 5'8 skill winger and his skillset doesn't pan out they're essentially Swiss Hockey League fodder.

That’s oversimplification. Noel Accarri is 5’10 third liner but plays a much bigger game and hits like a truck. The difference is that bigger players can get away with being mediocre skaters. Small and slow doesn’t translate very well.

 

[Fogelhund]

If you take a 6'4 man that doesn't mind the dirty areas and the scoring doesn't work out, they can at least be effective 3rd/4th liners.

If you take a 5'8 skill winger and his skillset doesn't pan out they're essentially Swiss Hockey League fodder.

If you take a player that ends up having the skills to play in the NHL, you get a NHL player. If you take a player that doesn’t, you don’t get a NHL player.

In 2018 we chose 6’3” Korshkov.

5’7” DeBrincat was chosen 8 picks later.

The deeper into the draft you go, the more these picks are gambling lottery picks. Picking big guys doesn’t translate in NHL players more often.

Hunter picking a bunch of big d men yielded us with zero NHL guys.

A solid NHL prospect system should have all types of players in it. It should value smaller skill players. It should value bigger players too. It should value skating and a bunch of other things. It should value grit.

But to make a statement that you draft guys at 6’4”, is wearing blinders and a path to failure, to the same degree as over emphasizing skill only.

 

[Martin Skoula]

If you take a player that ends up having the skills to play in the NHL, you get a NHL player. If you take a player that doesn’t, you don’t get a NHL player.

In 2018 we chose 6’3” Korshkov.

5’7” DeBrincat was chosen 8 picks later.

The deeper into the draft you go, the more these picks are gambling lottery picks. Picking big guys doesn’t translate in NHL players more often.

Hunter picking a bunch of big d men yielded us with zero NHL guys.

A solid NHL prospect system should have all types of players in it. It should value smaller skill players. It should value bigger players too. It should value skating and a bunch of other things. It should value grit.

But to make a statement that you draft guys at 6’4”, is wearing blinders and a path to failure, to the same degree as over emphasizing skill only.

Tyler “3rd line floor” Biggs ended up being a bottom 6er.. in the ECHL. At least the 5’8 guys will usually end up as top AHL scorers/AAAA tweeners if they don’t make it, the fridges that don’t make it end up flipping burgers by the time they’re 30.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

If you take a player that ends up having the skills to play in the NHL, you get a NHL player. If you take a player that doesn’t, you don’t get a NHL player.

In 2018 we chose 6’3” Korshkov.

5’7” DeBrincat was chosen 8 picks later.

The deeper into the draft you go, the more these picks are gambling lottery picks. Picking big guys doesn’t translate in NHL players more often.

Hunter picking a bunch of big d men yielded us with zero NHL guys.

A solid NHL prospect system should have all types of players in it. It should value smaller skill players. It should value bigger players too. It should value skating and a bunch of other things. It should value grit.

But to make a statement that you draft guys at 6’4”, is wearing blinders and a path to failure, to the same degree as over emphasizing skill only.

Korshkov was an off the board wasted pick any way you slice it. In a comparable ranking, I'd rather take the bigger player than the smaller player. Not sure what Dubas was thinking with that pick tbh

 

[Coaches Coroner]

If you take a 6'4 man that doesn't mind the dirty areas and the scoring doesn't work out, they can at least be effective 3rd/4th liners.

If you take a 5'8 skill winger and his skillset doesn't pan out they're essentially Swiss Hockey League fodder.

The top is simply not true and countless tough players taken toohigh are proof enough...some aren't even capable AHL 4th liners lmao. You guys have a short memory considering Hunter loved those behemoths that couldn't play hockey. You guys just like seeing big numbers on the Ht/Wt section lol.

Korshkov was an off the board wasted pick any way you slice it. In a comparable ranking, I'd rather take the bigger player than the smaller player. Not sure what Dubas was thinking with that pick tbh

Korshkov was a Hunter pick lmao. Some of you have Dubas-Derangement-Syndrome.

 

[Fogelhund]

Korshkov was an off the board wasted pick any way you slice it. In a comparable ranking, I'd rather take the bigger player than the smaller player. Not sure what Dubas was thinking with that pick tbh

After the Maple Leafs completed their participation in the 2016 NHL entry draft Saturday at First Niagara Center, Mark Hunter, the organization’s director of player personnel – and the man who watches more young hockey players than just about anyone else on the planet – took a few minutes to meet with the media and provide some brief thoughts on most of the youngsters Toronto drafted from Rounds 2-7. Here’s what Hunter had to say:


Round 2:

Yegor Korshkov, RW, Yaroslavl (31st overall): I’ve seen him in the world juniors, big strong guy, has good skils. Evgeny Namestnikov, who does some scouting for the Leafs, he coached him all year. He’s the one who pushed (Leafs and Marlies winger Nikita) Soshnikov, so to me it was a no-brainer, but we’ll see. He’s got to get better, of course, got to get stronger, and (we) think he’s got a good upside.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

If you take a 6'4 man that doesn't mind the dirty areas and the scoring doesn't work out, they can at least be effective 3rd/4th liners.

If you take a 5'8 skill winger and his skillset doesn't pan out they're essentially Swiss Hockey League fodder.

That isn't true at all. There's plenty of big players who don't have the skill to hack it in the NHL at any capacity

Korshkov was an off the board wasted pick any way you slice it. In a comparable ranking, I'd rather take the bigger player than the smaller player. Not sure what Dubas was thinking with that pick tbh

He was probably thinking, "wow Mark Hunter is a moron" like the rest of the world

 

[nuck]

Yeah I agree with your last point. There's a situational flexibility that needs to be applied to any draft situation. Trade up, down, stand pat, out. There's always a situation and a rationale that can be used, and no one's complaining if it works.

I guess my main issue with playing the percentages game is it tells me your staff is more comfortable going for quantity than accurately pinpointing and targeting something special that might be left on the board. I felt like there was a similar dynamic at play with Liam Ohgren and Danila Yurov in the 2022 draft too before Toronto did the Mrazek deal.

I would lthink that trade downs are based on there being a plateau of talent when the pick comes up. Not every scout has seen every player so the final lists have inherent guesswork involved. If there is clear separation they don't make the move. Not to go with an obviously stronger pick with your 1st gives the measurable chance that you are taking a guy who will not be a player over a guy that will.

 

[Stephen]

I would lthink that trade downs are based on there being a plateau of talent when the pick comes up. Not every scout has seen every player so the final lists have inherent guesswork involved. If there is clear separation they don't make the move. Not to go with an obviously stronger pick with your 1st gives the measurable chance that you are taking a guy who will not be a player over a guy that will.

That’s exactly my point. Plateaus only exist on draft day when there’s a certain low level of resolution on the upside of prospects and fuzziness to the picture. But when rubber hits the road and you look back on any draft you’re not going to see a six pack of middle lineup players in clusters.

So if there’s a bluechip, BPA guy falling in the draft I would recommend trading up and snatching that guy up than moving down to select more.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

After the Maple Leafs completed their participation in the 2016 NHL entry draft Saturday at First Niagara Center, Mark Hunter, the organization’s director of player personnel – and the man who watches more young hockey players than just about anyone else on the planet – took a few minutes to meet with the media and provide some brief thoughts on most of the youngsters Toronto drafted from Rounds 2-7. Here’s what Hunter had to say:


Round 2:

Yegor Korshkov, RW, Yaroslavl (31st overall): I’ve seen him in the world juniors, big strong guy, has good skils. Evgeny Namestnikov, who does some scouting for the Leafs, he coached him all year. He’s the one who pushed (Leafs and Marlies winger Nikita) Soshnikov, so to me it was a no-brainer, but we’ll see. He’s got to get better, of course, got to get stronger, and (we) think he’s got a good upside.

I stand corrected.

 

[ChazzMichaelMichaels]

Out of everyone in the top 25, he is one of the more likely to fall.

He was awful at the U18's. Pretty much confirmed every concern about him.

What's your thoughts on Etienne Morin?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

What's your thoughts on Etienne Morin?

I think in a lot of ways he is like Sandin.

Skating is fine but could get better. Smart two-way guy but his value will always be more in the offensive end. Similar size and similar ability to have a bit of an edge without it being a main focal point.

2nd pairing upside but I do not think he really stands out vs. most of the other defenders available in that range (Akey, Lindstein, Willander, Price, Molendyk, Bonk, etc.). It is more a matter of stylistic preference.

 

[Menzinger]

That isn't true at all. There's plenty of big players who don't have the skill to hack it in the NHL at any capacity

I think there's definitely way too much belief in the idea that big players will likely automatically translate into becoming energy 4th line guys.

The fact that even larger 1st/2nd round picks completely flopped like Tyler Biggs or Korshkov should be proof enough. Let alone the many later round guys in who never made it

 

[Leaf Rocket]

I think in a lot of ways he is like Sandin.

Skating is fine but could get better. Smart two-way guy but his value will always be more in the offensive end. Similar size and similar ability to have a bit of an edge without it being a main focal point.

2nd pairing upside but I do not think he really stands out vs. most of the other defenders available in that range (Akey, Lindstein, Willander, Price, Molendyk, Bonk, etc.). It is more a matter of stylistic preference.

I watched him a bit in Moncton and all...there is something about him that rubs me the wrong way. I could be completely off base here though, feels like this guy is more of great CHLer than to translate above. Just my two cents.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I think there's definitely way too much belief in the idea that big players will likely automatically translate into becoming energy 4th line guys.

The fact that even larger 1st/2nd round picks completely flopped like Tyler Biggs or Korshkov should be proof enough. Let alone the many later round guys in who never made it

I think it's more likely that the opposite is true. The biggest indicator (although still not perfect) of future success is production. A skilled player who falls short of their potential still had a chance at making the NHL as a depth player, especially in the modern NHL that's trending towards getting scoring from every line. Players who may be small at 17 or 18 can always still grow or at least put on muscle

 

[Mess]

The son of a longtime NHLer broke Auston Matthews’ single-season junior scoring record

For years, the United States National Development Program (USNDP) has been a veritable hockey factory. Tons of high-end National Hockey League players have gone through Ann Arbor en route to drafting and eventual pro stardom. There are a few really promising USNDP products in the 2023 NHL Draft class. Son of a long-time NHLer and owner of a very impressive scoring record, winger Gabe Perreault could be home run swing of a pick in the first round.

Scouting report​

Born in Quebec during the 2004-05 NHL lockout, Perreault is part of a fairly prominent hockey family. His father is Yanic Perreault, who played 14 NHL seasons and currently works with the Chicago Blackhawks as a development coach. His older siblings are Jeremy (a coach with the Chicago Mission youth program), Liliane (recently finished her senior season with Mercyhurst in the NCAA) and Jacob (a 2020 first-round pick by Anaheim).

Perreault is listed at 5’11” and 165 pounds, and he’s a left shot winger. A May 2005 birthday, he’s one of the younger players in the draft class. He has dual Canadian/American citizenship, but he represented the United States in international competitions. If there’s one thing you need to know about Perreault, it’s this: the kid can put up offensive numbers. He’s the guy that broke Auston Matthews’ single-season points record with the USNDP. (Yeah, he’s that kid.)

Perreault is committed to Boston College for the 2023-24 season, where he’ll be coached by Greg Brown, who was part of the staff that sent the likes of Johnny Gaudreau and Cam Atkinson to the NHL.

The numbers​

The USNDP plays a weird schedule, which features a mixture of games against teams from the United States Hockey League, colleges, and international teams. Between all of those opponents, Perreault had 53 goals and 132 points in 63 games. In 23 games against USHL opponents, he had 19 goals and 45 points. On a per-game basis, only teammate Will Smith’s 2.10 points-per-game beat out Perreault’s 1.96. In the entire league.

The son of a longtime NHLer broke Auston Matthews’ single-season junior scoring record

<strong><em>Brought to you by odds site <a href="https://betway.com/en...

flamesnation.ca

 

[LaPlante94]

Defence is weird in this draft. Not many guys who really blow you away but a lot of them seem like very safe picks who'll be NHLers at some point. I really like Price from Kelowna because he's got a very good defensive stick and positioning and can skate and move the puck well. Cam Allen is another who is probably a mid 2nd/3rd round guy but if you like Connor Clifton then you'll love Allen. Then got a lot of the other obvious names that get thrown around. I feel like you can't really go wrong with a d man in that 25-70/80 range. Moldendyk I feel is the highest risk/reward pick out of all of them imo.

 

[hockeywiz542]

2023 NHL Draft ranking: Scott Wheeler’s top 100 is divided into six tiers - The Athletic

The 2023 class, led by a quintet of true star forward prospects in Regina sensation Connor Bedard, Michigan’s Hobey Baker-winning freshman Adam Fantilli, Russia’s Matvei Michkov, Örebro’s Leo Carlsson, and the NTDP’s ultra-talented Will Smith, boasts arguably the best collection of talent I’ve scouted at the top of the draft since the 2015 draft.

It’s more than just its top end, too, and I also believe it to be deeper on the whole than your average draft — it should produce impact players in larger quantities than is typical.

The ranking, now completely sortable, is made up of 69 forwards, 25 defensemen, and six goalies from nine different countries. While it’s widely considered a forward-heavy draft, that number is actually only one more than last year’s list due to the emergence of a handful of high-end D prospects and that strong core group of half a dozen or so goalies.

Tier 4

17. Colby Barlow

LW, OWEN SOUND

18. Quentin Musty

LW, SUDBURY

19. Calum Ritchie

C, OSHAWA

20. Nate Danielson

C, BRANDON

21. Mikhail Gulyayev

LHD, OMSKIE

22. Bradly Nadeau

LW, PENTICTON

23. Riley Heidt

C, PRINCE GEORGE

24. Gavin Brindley

C, MICHIGAN

25. Samuel Honzek

LW, VANCOUVER

26. Daniil But

LW, YAROSLAVL

27. Tom Willander

RHD, ROGLE

28. Jayden Perron

RW, CHICAGO

29. Otto Stenberg

C, FROLUNDA

30. Ethan Gauthier

RW, SHERBROOKE

31. Koehn Ziemmer

RW, PRINCE GEORGE

32. Etienne Morin

LHD, MONCTON

 

[Stephen]

Tom Willander is an interesting Rogle RH defenseman in our range.

 

[Mitch nylander]

Here is a fun little draft simulator tool: Realgud draft simulator

I typically look for players with good Iq, and great skating. I think those two skills are incredible hard to teach. You can't teach a player to be smarter and you can't always fix bad feet.

As a result, I ended up going with:

28: Mikhail Gulyayev Just remarkable upside. Great offensive defensemen, with excellent skating. His speed and playmaking made this a must pick.

153 Juraj Pekarcik: Liked his game in the u-18s. Great skating and speed coupled with projectable size. Smart player too. Being one of the youngest players of the draft is something to note as well.

185 Felix Unger Sorum: Another young center. Two way forward with IQ. Not an overly flashy player, but gets the job done. Considered Odrej Molnar and Daniil Karpovich at this pick.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Here is a fun little draft simulator tool: Realgud draft simulator

I typically look for players with good Iq, and great skating. I think those two skills are incredible hard to teach. You can't teach a player to be smarter and you can't always fix bad feet.

As a result, I ended up going with:

28: Mikhail Gulyayev Just remarkable upside. Great offensive defensemen, with excellent skating. His speed and playmaking made this a must pick.

153 Juraj Pekarcik: Liked his game in the u-18s. Great skating and speed coupled with projectable size. Smart player too. Being one of the youngest players of the draft is something to note as well.

185 Felix Unger Sorum: Another young center. Two way forward with IQ. Not an overly flashy player, but gets the job done. Considered Oscar Molnar and Daniil Karpovich at this pick.

I also took Gulyayev, but I then got Sotheran (stay-at-home RD with size and good overall complimentary ability; perfect fit for a guy like Gulyayev long term) and Tommasso De Luca (could be the steal of the draft; gritty with great hands, vision, and edges. Solid shot and speed. Great defensive player as well).

 

[weems]

Here is a fun little draft simulator tool: Realgud draft simulator

I typically look for players with good Iq, and great skating. I think those two skills are incredible hard to teach. You can't teach a player to be smarter and you can't always fix bad feet.

As a result, I ended up going with:

28: Mikhail Gulyayev Just remarkable upside. Great offensive defensemen, with excellent skating. His speed and playmaking made this a must pick.

153 Juraj Pekarcik: Liked his game in the u-18s. Great skating and speed coupled with projectable size. Smart player too. Being one of the youngest players of the draft is something to note as well.

185 Felix Unger Sorum: Another young center. Two way forward with IQ. Not an overly flashy player, but gets the job done. Considered Oscar Molnar and Daniil Karpovich at this pick.

Damn that's a really long wait on the simulator between our first pick and our second