HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Ridiculous blinders on by damn near everyone this year for this kid. Can't wait for everybody to collectively pretend that they wanted him. He's elite offensively, he's elite defensively, he's a workhorse. But he's one inch too short to be good.

I'd be fine with him, too.

Of all the speculated people it's really just Dvorsky I wouldn't be happy about if the Habs drafted him, but wouldn't be pissed.

 

[morhilane]

I think people are sleeping on the smartest player in the draft (Perreault). Always in the right place at the right time, I think he puts up 70-80 regularly in the NHL once he gets there.

He's one of the worst skater in the draft, that's why he's not higher on people's list.

 

[Toene]

Ridiculous blinders on by damn near everyone this year for this kid. Can't wait for everybody to collectively pretend that they wanted him. He's elite offensively, he's elite defensively, he's a workhorse. But he's one inch too short to be good.

The most common criticism I see is people saying his body will break down like Gallagher's did because of his style and size. Benson is twice as talented as BG and wont be used as a "net-presence" because it would be a waste of his qualities. And even then, Gally gave us at least a decade of great possession stats. The awful contract makes it easy to forget how effective he was in his prime. A lot of goals he helped create that didnt register in his stats because he didnt touch the puck but his presence directly affected the play into succeeding.

 

[Balthazar]

You could tell in today's presser that Hughes loves Smith and Leonard.

Leonard's floor is super high, the only question mark is his size vs his style of play. Is he big enough to play a power forward in the NHL and stay healthy? Other than that he appears to be a can't miss prospect.

Assuming there's no surprise in the top 4 it's going to be either Leonard or Reinbacher. IMO in the end they'll go with the premium position and pick the right-handed defenseman but I won't be surprised if they pick Leonard.

 

[Toene]

You could tell in today's presser that Hughes loves Smith and Leonard.

Leonard's floor is super high, the only question mark is his size vs his style of play. Is big enough to play a power forward in the NHL and stay healthy? Other than that he appears to be a can't miss prospect.

Assuming there's no surprise in the top 4 it's going to be either Leonard or Reinbacher. IMO in the end they'll go with the premium position and pick the right-handed defenseman.

I personally believe the order is :
Smith
Leonard
Reinbacher
Dvorsky

in the eyes of Montréal's scouts. From the little information we were privy to.

 

[Balthazar]

I personally believe the order is :
Smith
Leonard
Reinbacher
Dvorsky

in the eyes of Montréal's scouts. From the little information we were privy to.

Could be. I think they prefer Leonard but in the end they'll value the defenseman more.

If they believe that Reinbacher can be a first pairing RD it's a HUGE piece of the puzzle in any rebuild, they are extremely hard to find...you basically have to draft them (whereas top 6 wingers are a dime a dozen on the trade and UFA markets).

 

[Goldenhands]

I don't think so.. Hrabal probably the only one who goes round 1, if at all.

Bjarnason is a good goalie prospect but he certainly didn't leave scouts with a fantastic taste in their mouths in his U-18s.

Fowler at a more convincing end to his year and coming up in big games.

Well its not just about pure performance, I agree that Bjarnasson didnt have impressive peak performances and had his ups and downs at the U18, but inconsistency with young goaltenders isnt unusual, with Bjarnasson you take the gamble that it will come together with proper development, but the upside remains very high since technically he is pretty strong and the size is ideal. There are alot of similarities with a young Carey Price, not only because he wears the same number, but technically, similar size, calm in net and similar inconsistency in their draft year. People want upside with the Florida pick, Bjarnasson is the biggest homerun swing you can take IMO.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Would you say historically (in the last 20~ years) Europeans are better value in the first round?

No, not at all. I mean 20 years ago they were probably still being under drafted, but I don't think that's an issue as much anymore.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Hughes as been talking about Leonard a lot today, seems to like him,
I hope he dosen't pick him at #5,
if he wants him we should go back a couple spots and get a 2nd rounder on top.

Leonard won't be there past #6. If we don't take him at #5, Arizona will take him #6. There's no dropping back here.

 

[River Meadow]

If I were GM I'd be scared as hell to draft Michkov when there are way easier paths....

You need to talk to Michkov and his team and make damn sure you get some assurances and hear what you need to hear.

 

[Jack Skellington]

I have him at 7, I think he's a great prospect.. I just don't talk about him because there's no reason to believe the Habs are interested.

Why is there no reason to believe we would be interested? Is that your contextual read on the situation or has information come out?

The only undersized forward we have in the pipeline that actually means anything is Caufield. Guys like Mesar, Farrell, RHP, Gallagher, mean sweet f*** all for the actual future of this team. They're interchangeable and we shouldn't be selecting our 5th overall pick around them, it should be the other way around. The core guys we have in place are for the most part good sized players.

I can't think of a more Martin St Louis style player than Benson and he epitomizes the words Hughes uses to describe players he wants. Compete, skill, intelligence. People call him an average skater but IMO hes a fantastic skater overall. He has average top speed, which is a huge difference. Far less important than his elite footwork and agility for the style of play he has.

The injury concerns are fair, but is that really how we're going to draft players now?

 

[jiboy]

Where do you guys have Nick Lardis and Oliver Moore ?

 

[Vachon23]

Where do you guys have Nick Lardis and Oliver Moore ?

I have Moore in the top 20

Lardis start of the 2nd round

 

[Kennerback]

Leonard won't be there past #6. If we don't take him at #5, Arizona will take him #6. There's no dropping back here.

I think interest on Leonard will vary from one club to the next. The fact Smith gets the 1 on 2 supper with Jarmo and JD (Columbus) and not Leonard is significant.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

I think interest on Leonard will vary from one club to the next. The fact Smith gets the 1 on 2 supper with Jarmo and JD (Columbus) and not Leonard is significant.

Not really. Columbus has already said that they're taking a center, and absolutely no one expects Leonard to go #3. There's no surprise at all that Fantilli, Carlsson & Smith are who they're taking to dinner. One of those 3 will be a Columbus Blue Jacket.

Arizona has already had multiple interviews with Leonard and had dinner with him this week. They're seriously interested.

 

[Jabba11]

It would be crazy to see Carlsson fall to us. Pretty nice to be honest.

Bedard
Fantilli
Smith
Michkov
Carlsson


Very possible scenario!

 

[Mrb1p]

Were overrating Leonard if we believe hes gonna be probably the best goalscoring powerforward ever, lol. I mean, if you're going to say this, why is he 5th on your list? Pump those numbers up and put him 1st.

Hes 5'11 and super skilled, hes not 6'1 and coming off a year where he terrorized the dub, lol.

 

[SOLR]

2003

1st goalie draft: Marc-Andre Fleury
Best goalie: Fleury (?)

Other notables:
Brian Elliott - 9th
Jaroslav Halak - 9th
Corey Crawford -2nd, 52nd
Jimmy Howard 64th

2004

1st Goalie drafted: Al Montoya, 6th OV
Best goalie: Pekka Rinne, 8th round

Others
Cory Schneider 26th
Devan Dubnyk 14th
Thomas Greiss

2005

1st Goalie drafted: Carey Price
Best goalie: Carey Price

Others
Tuukka Rask, 21st
Ondrej Pavelec, 41st
Jonathan Quick 72nd
Ben Bishop 85th

2006

1st Goalie drafted: Jonathan Bernier, 11th
Best Goalie Semyon Varlamov, 23rd.

Others:
Steve Mason, 69th
James Reimer, 99th

2007:

1st Goalie drafted: Joel Gistedt, 36th
Best Goalie: Scott Darling 153rd

Absolute shit year for goalies.

2008:
1st Goalie Drafted: Chet Pickard, 18th
Best Goalie: Braden Holtby, 93rd

Others:
Jacob Markstrom 31st
Jake Allen 34th

2009:

1st Goalie Drafted: Mikko Koskinen, 31st.
Best Goalie: Robin Lehner, 46th

Others
Darcy Kuemper, 161st

2010:

1st Goalie Draft: Jack Campbell, 11th
Best Goalie: Fredrik Andersen*

Others:
Phillipp Grubauer, 112th
Petr Mrazek, 141st

2011

1st Goalie Drafted: Magnus Hellberg, 38th
Best Goalie: John Gibson, 39th

Others
Jordan Binnington, 88th
Laurent Brossoit, 164th

2012:

1st Goalie Drafted: Andrei Vasilevskiy, 19th
Best Goalie: Andrei Vasilevskiy

Others
Connor Hellebuyck, 130th
Fredrik Andersen*
Matt Murray, 83rd

2013:

1st Goalie Drafted: Zachary Fucale, 36th
Best Goalie: Juuse Saros, 99th

Other:
Tristan Jarry, 44th

2014:

1st Goalie Drafted: Mason MacDonald, 34th.
Best Goalie: Igor Shesterkin, 118th

Others:
Thatcher Demko, 36th
Ilya Sorokin, 78th
Elvis Merzlikins, 76th

2015:

1st Goalie Drafted: Ilya Samsonov, 22nd
Best Goalie: Ilya Samonson

Others
Dan Vladar, 75th
Adin Hill, 76th
Samuel Montembeault, 77th

Kind of neat, but none of these are actual high-end goalies.

2016:

1st Goalie Drafted: Carter Hart, 48th
Best Goalie: Carter Hart

Others:

Looks like a crap draft.

2017:

1st Goalie Drafted: Jake Oettinger, 26th
Best Goalie: Jake Oetinnger

Others:
Jeremy Swayman, 111th
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, 54th

2018:

1st Goalie Drafted: Olof Lindblom, 39th
Best Goalie: Akira Schmid, 136th.

Others:
Lukas Dostal, 85th
Joel Hofer, 107th
Samuel Errson, 143rd

2019:

1st Goalie Selected: Spencer Knight, 14th
Best Goalie: Spencer Knight

Others:
Pyotr Kochetkov, 36th.
Mads Sogaard


2019 is too early to tell, but the rest are to just see when the first goalie was drafted.

2020:

Yaroslav Askarov, 11th. Next Drew Commesso, 46th

2021

Sebastien Cossa, 15th. Jesper Wallstedt, 20th. After these 2 the next is Alex Kolosov, 78th

2022

Topias Leinonen, 41st. Next Niklas Kakko, 58th.

Got bored and that's what it's been like for the past 20 years. Goalies aren't being drafted top 10, not that there's a goalie worthy of a top 10 pick in this year's draft. If I'm not mistaken, I believe Wallstedt was ranked quite high at some points, but then got drafted 20th.

Wallstedt was highway robbery at 20.

 

[Andrei79]

Were overrating Leonard if we believe hes gonna be probably the best goalscoring powerforward ever, lol. I mean, if you're going to say this, why is he 5th on your list? Pump those numbers up and put him 1st.

Hes 5'11 and super skilled, hes not 6'1 and coming off a year where he terrorized the dub, lol.

50 goals 90 point in a low scoring era Iginla isn't a realistic expectation. So many things would have to go right, so it's unlikely and not something you can really factor in. But the style is kind of there. At least, the "idea" of that kind of player is. Iginla also had some 30 goals 70point ish seasons which could be more around the high end for Leonard, just ad he could just as well be a high end Farabee at 40-60 points. Something like an Adam Deadmarsh. Deadmarsh was a hell of a gamer and around the same size. That might actually be my best comp for him and more accurate to convey the style/potential. You're completely wrong about Iginlas draft year though. He didn't terrorize the dub. He went just under ppg. He was like 60 points under the leading scorer on his team

Also... Aren't you the guy who was christening a late second rounder, who you had middle of the first, as a "100 point potential" player? You're freely giving advice you're not taking yourself.

 

[SOLR]

1. Bedard

2. Fantilli

3. Carlsson

4. Michkov

5. Smith

6. Leonard

7. Benson

8. Reinbacher

9. Dvorsky

10. Perreault

11. Wood

12. Moore

13. Barlow

14. But

15. Willander

16. Yager

17. Sale

18. Sandin Pellikka

19. Simashev

20. Musty

My rankings following just the forum and watching highligts (from Sweden). Any major flaws?

But should not be in the top 90.

Based on Hughes interviews, I'm guessing the priority is (assuming top 4 has Bedard/Fantilli/Carlsson all gone):

1. Smith
2. Leonard
3. Reinbacher
4. Dvorsky




170. Michkov

So we are drafting Michkov for sure then.

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

If I were GM I'd be scared as hell to draft Michkov when there are way easier paths....

You need to talk to Michkov and his team and make damn sure you get some assurances and hear what you need to hear.

Apparently he really wants to play in the NHL. I think ultimately he will and the team that drafts him will be laughing all the way to the podium

Honestly if I were Anaheim, I'd pick michkov. He's that much better than fantilli and Carlsson that I'd risk it

 

[calder candidate]

Is the success rate lower or is it skewed?

There's ~200 skaters drafted every year, the amount of goalies drafted every year is a fraction of that.

There's ~64 goalies on NHL rosters every year.

It's just a blind argument.

The Habs had 3 top 5 picks in recent memory prior to Slafkovsky.

Carey Price, Alex Galchenyuk and Jesperi Kotkaniemi.

If I looked at that, I would say goalies are easier to project and using a top 5 pick on a goalie yields better results.

Everything against drafting a goalie is just confirmation bias. Getting Vasilevskiy at 19 isn't an argument FOR taking a goalie round 1 the same way getting Subban in round 1 of the same draft isn't an argument AGAINST taking a goalie in round 1.

You trust your scouts and if they identify a goalie they like, you go and get them regardless of where it is in the draft. Forwards and defenseman bust all the time. It just seems more frequent with goalies because teams select a whole lot less of them and since there's usually less good goalies every draft, the volume isn't there. With a forward you can point to usually someone in the 20s who was taken and had a good career, but are often neglecting the 9 other guys taken in the 20s who look like McCarron or Poehling.

every position bust but your odd of getting starting Goalie in the 1st and the 4th are almost equivalent which just isn’t the same with FW or D…
every year there a goalie from the 2nd, 3rd or 4th that is better or equivalent to the first G drafted which just doesn’t happen with other position.

Because goalie are harder to predict, they take longer to develop, the difference between the top goalies and the worst is a lot less significant than players.

Out of Price, Galchenyuk and KK, price is the most successful pick yet he still wasn’t the best pick. If you are convinced the goalie the better make you make the pick but you have to be aware that historically lot of team fail to identify the best goalie.

 

[Hacketts]

I have him at 7, I think he's a great prospect.. I just don't talk about him because there's no reason to believe the Habs are interested.

Maybe, maybe not.

We don't really know, but he's a player that does check off boxes that there looking for. This is a management group that did draft Marchand, and has a coach in MSL, so at least we do have an expertise in knowing what to look for in a smaller player. I get he's a bit of a long shot cause of his size, but he's also the type of player to find success in this league with his toolkit and attributes.

 

[Mrb1p]

50 goals 90 point in a low scoring era Iginla isn't a realistic expectation. So many things would have to go right, so it's unlikely and not something you can really factor in. But the style is kind of there. At least, the "idea" of that kind of player is. Iginla also had some 30 goals 70point ish seasons which could be more around the high end for Leonard, just ad he could just as well be a high end Farabee at 40-60 points. Something like an Adam Deadmarsh. Deadmarsh was a hell of a gamer and around the same size. That might actually be my best comp for him and more accurate to convey the style/potential. You're completely wrong about Iginlas draft year though. He didn't terrorize the dub. He went just under ppg. He was like 60 points under the leading scorer on his team

Also... Aren't you the guy who was christening a late second rounder, who you had middle of the first, as a "100 point potential" player? You're freely giving advice you're not taking yourself.

Iginla was on the 2nd line behind Doan and dint play PP, his story is well known. He was a physical force that was seen as a grinder, thats what I meant, Leonard isnt a physical player first, hes a skilled player with physicality sprinkled in, similar to Slafkovsky.


Whos the late second rounder?

I like how you made it a point to reply to me in a rude way even though you basically agreed with what I said. I think you may need a moment, friend.

 

[Andrei79]

Iginla was on the 2nd line behind Doan and dint play PP, his story is well known. He was a physical force that was seen as a grinder, thats what I meant, Leonard isnt a physical player first, hes a skilled player with physicality sprinkled in, similar to Slafkovsky.


Whos the late second rounder?

I like how you made it a point to reply to me in a rude way even though you basically agreed with what I said. I think you may need a moment, friend.

It's difficult to see what you mean if you're not explaining it though. But yeah, Iginla was seen as you say. Leonard is more physical than Slaf though. He hurts guys with open ice hits. He's kind of like a current era Deadmarsh, if I can reprize that comp, meaning more skill and less of that 90s bulldozer kind of playstyle.

It should have said early (Firkus).

Pointing out a discrepancy isn't anymore rude when you're on the receiving end than when you're doing it. You know you're quick on the hyperboles, so I'm not sure why you're pointing them out tbh. But yeah, if it felt demeaning that wasn't the intention.

If we go back to our own individual biases though. Leonard is definitely the kind of player I'll overshoot. That Deadmarsh/Iginla kind of gamer who can skate and make skilled plays is just so unique that I'd tend to forget he's his own player with his own trajectory. That trajectory could be just a better Farabee.