HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

[BeliveauFan4ever]

Leo would be a nice surprise for us....I'll take it

Several steps beyond nice, IMO.

I’ve been unable to let go of The Dream.

 

[calder candidate]

But we wouldn't be taking those guys at 19 either.

All I am saying is that the philosophy to never draft a goalie high is a bad philosophy, it's built on very shaky logic.

If your scouts have identified someone who they think is a top starting goalie in the NHL, why wouldn't you take him? Why would you just have a philosophy to take a skater, when in the late 1st and 2nd round, the odds are you don't get anything and if you do, it is more likely just a bottom 6/bottom pair defenseman.

I have no issue taking a goalie but I need to be convinced because the success rate is juste lower, goalie are harder to project, there plenty of Fw and D coming from the late 1st and late 2nd. I not going to draft a player if I’m not convinced regardless of position, but Fw are easier to project, than D which are easier than G, and you only need 1 goalie, if it all the same I pick the FW or D build the better team and take an chance with later pick of G or fix it later.

 

[BeliveauFan4ever]

Imagine wasting a high pick on a goalie when all you need is Adin Hill or cap dump Bobrovsky…

Imagine signing either of those guys for cheap.

I can’t.

 

[SOLR]

And they didn't draft them - so why draft Eichel and Stone when you can just acquire them?

A short look at these 2 trades proves this argument wrong. Significant draft assets were traded for the two, including highly valued prospects in the right positions.

The real argument here = we need a lot of draft assets vs. we need to draft every player.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I have no issue taking a goalie but I need to be convinced because the success rate is juste lower, goalie are harder to project, there plenty of Fw and D coming from the late 1st and late 2nd. I not going to draft a player if I’m not convinced regardless of position, but Fw are easier to project, than D which are easier than G, and you only need 1 goalie, if it all the same I pick the FW or D build the better team and take an chance with later pick of G or fix it later.

Is the success rate lower or is it skewed?

There's ~200 skaters drafted every year, the amount of goalies drafted every year is a fraction of that.

There's ~64 goalies on NHL rosters every year.

It's just a blind argument.

The Habs had 3 top 5 picks in recent memory prior to Slafkovsky.

Carey Price, Alex Galchenyuk and Jesperi Kotkaniemi.

If I looked at that, I would say goalies are easier to project and using a top 5 pick on a goalie yields better results.

Everything against drafting a goalie is just confirmation bias. Getting Vasilevskiy at 19 isn't an argument FOR taking a goalie round 1 the same way getting Subban in round 1 of the same draft isn't an argument AGAINST taking a goalie in round 1.

You trust your scouts and if they identify a goalie they like, you go and get them regardless of where it is in the draft. Forwards and defenseman bust all the time. It just seems more frequent with goalies because teams select a whole lot less of them and since there's usually less good goalies every draft, the volume isn't there. With a forward you can point to usually someone in the 20s who was taken and had a good career, but are often neglecting the 9 other guys taken in the 20s who look like McCarron or Poehling.

 

[Vachon23]

 

[Pompeius Magnus]

Several steps beyond nice, IMO.

I’ve been unable to let go of The Dream.

I liked Dusty a lot too but he's long gone now, time to let it go brother

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

2003

1st goalie draft: Marc-Andre Fleury
Best goalie: Fleury (?)

Other notables:
Brian Elliott - 9th
Jaroslav Halak - 9th
Corey Crawford -2nd, 52nd
Jimmy Howard 64th

2004

1st Goalie drafted: Al Montoya, 6th OV
Best goalie: Pekka Rinne, 8th round

Others
Cory Schneider 26th
Devan Dubnyk 14th
Thomas Greiss

2005

1st Goalie drafted: Carey Price
Best goalie: Carey Price

Others
Tuukka Rask, 21st
Ondrej Pavelec, 41st
Jonathan Quick 72nd
Ben Bishop 85th

2006

1st Goalie drafted: Jonathan Bernier, 11th
Best Goalie Semyon Varlamov, 23rd.

Others:
Steve Mason, 69th
James Reimer, 99th

2007:

1st Goalie drafted: Joel Gistedt, 36th
Best Goalie: Scott Darling 153rd

Absolute shit year for goalies.

2008:
1st Goalie Drafted: Chet Pickard, 18th
Best Goalie: Braden Holtby, 93rd

Others:
Jacob Markstrom 31st
Jake Allen 34th

2009:

1st Goalie Drafted: Mikko Koskinen, 31st.
Best Goalie: Robin Lehner, 46th

Others
Darcy Kuemper, 161st

2010:

1st Goalie Draft: Jack Campbell, 11th
Best Goalie: Fredrik Andersen*

Others:
Phillipp Grubauer, 112th
Petr Mrazek, 141st

2011

1st Goalie Drafted: Magnus Hellberg, 38th
Best Goalie: John Gibson, 39th

Others
Jordan Binnington, 88th
Laurent Brossoit, 164th

2012:

1st Goalie Drafted: Andrei Vasilevskiy, 19th
Best Goalie: Andrei Vasilevskiy

Others
Connor Hellebuyck, 130th
Fredrik Andersen*
Matt Murray, 83rd

2013:

1st Goalie Drafted: Zachary Fucale, 36th
Best Goalie: Juuse Saros, 99th

Other:
Tristan Jarry, 44th

2014:

1st Goalie Drafted: Mason MacDonald, 34th.
Best Goalie: Igor Shesterkin, 118th

Others:
Thatcher Demko, 36th
Ilya Sorokin, 78th
Elvis Merzlikins, 76th

2015:

1st Goalie Drafted: Ilya Samsonov, 22nd
Best Goalie: Ilya Samonson

Others
Dan Vladar, 75th
Adin Hill, 76th
Samuel Montembeault, 77th

Kind of neat, but none of these are actual high-end goalies.

2016:

1st Goalie Drafted: Carter Hart, 48th
Best Goalie: Carter Hart

Others:

Looks like a crap draft.

2017:

1st Goalie Drafted: Jake Oettinger, 26th
Best Goalie: Jake Oetinnger

Others:
Jeremy Swayman, 111th
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, 54th

2018:

1st Goalie Drafted: Olof Lindblom, 39th
Best Goalie: Akira Schmid, 136th.

Others:
Lukas Dostal, 85th
Joel Hofer, 107th
Samuel Errson, 143rd

2019:

1st Goalie Selected: Spencer Knight, 14th
Best Goalie: Spencer Knight

Others:
Pyotr Kochetkov, 36th.
Mads Sogaard


2019 is too early to tell, but the rest are to just see when the first goalie was drafted.

2020:

Yaroslav Askarov, 11th. Next Drew Commesso, 46th

2021

Sebastien Cossa, 15th. Jesper Wallstedt, 20th. After these 2 the next is Alex Kolosov, 78th

2022

Topias Leinonen, 41st. Next Niklas Kakko, 58th.

Got bored and that's what it's been like for the past 20 years. Goalies aren't being drafted top 10, not that there's a goalie worthy of a top 10 pick in this year's draft. If I'm not mistaken, I believe Wallstedt was ranked quite high at some points, but then got drafted 20th.

 

[Vachon23]

Hmm. Not sure I agree. Beck had a good season but it's entirely plausible that one of the top 3Gs in this class has a better D+1. Hutson sure but that's a pretty unique situation. What about like Jesper Wallstedt? I don't think Beck's value is anywhere close to him right now, and I'm a big fan of Beck.

Exaclty ! last year wasn't a good goalie draft year but if Minnesota call me and offer me Wallstedt against Beck, I'm doing it right away and I would even be ready to add

 

[Vachon23]

Dallas also tried that in 2010 with Campbell and that didn't work out. Could have drafted Tarasenko and then in the 3rd drafted Grubauer.

Oettinger is a really good goalie, but he might have cost Dallas a series and definitely cost Dallas some games, but he helped win some, too.

Dallas would't have been in the semi final without Oettinger though

And in 2009 they tried to draft there #1 C in Scott Glennie and it didn't work out. Does that mean they should't draft a center ? They are flop at every position in the 1st round, it's not only goalies

1st Goalie Drafted: Mason MacDonald, 34th.

Completely forgot that CGY took MacDonald before Demko. I will never understand what they saw to make that pick

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Dallas would't have been in the semi final without Oettinger though

And in 2009 they tried to draft there #1 C in Scott Glennie and it didn't work out. Does that mean they should't draft a center ? They are flop at every position in the 1st round, it's not only goalies

If the numbers told you you're more likely to get your number 1 centre via a trade, or drafted in the later rounds, then I would advise against drafting your centre that high, but it doesn't.

Everything suggests that if you get your number 1 goalie, it's going to be a goalie that's either drafted later, or you traded for. Given how the NHL is going with a tandem now rather than 1 guy to play the majority and 1 guy to play a handful of games, you can be picky.

 

[Vachon23]

If the numbers told you you're more likely to get your number 1 centre via a trade, or drafted in the later rounds, then I would advise against drafting your centre that high, but it doesn't.

Everything suggests that if you get your number 1 goalie, it's going to be a goalie that's either drafted later, or you traded for. Given how the NHL is going with a tandem now rather than 1 guy to play the majority and 1 guy to play a handful of games, you can be picky.

I understand your point and I do agree that you should't draft a goalie because you need a goalie and reach on him.

But if you're scouting staff are extremely high on that goalie and they see him as a #1 goalie for the next 10 years then you pick him.

Yes you can trade for someone like Adam Hill but he's gonna be the solution for what 1 year ? Getting a stud #1 Goalie would give us a chance every year and we could concentrate on acquiring others holes after that.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

I understand your point and I do agree that you should't draft a goalie because you need a goalie and reach on him.

But if you're scouting staff are extremely high on that goalie and they see him as a #1 goalie for the next 10 years then you pick him.

Yes you can trade for someone like Adam Hill but he's gonna be the solution for what 1 year ? Getting a stud #1 Goalie would give us a chance every year and we could concentrate on acquiring others holes after that.

Yeah, that's an outlier.

This draft, if Hrabal is still there at 31/32, or 37th and the habs take him, I'd be fine and happy with that pick.

I'm not trying to say trade for other team's goalies they drafted in the 4th round, but rather the goalie of your team's future might be drafted in the 4th by your team.

Draft goalies, but don't feel the need to draft a goalie mid first- mid 2nd every time.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Yeah, that's an outlier.

This draft, if Hrabal is still there at 31/32, or 37th and the habs take him, I'd be fine and happy with that pick.

I'm not trying to say trade for other team's goalies they drafted in the 4th round, but rather the goalie of your team's future might be drafted in the 4th by your team.

Draft goalies, but don't feel the need to draft a goalie mid first- mid 2nd every time.

I don't think anyone is advocating that.. and I certainly wouldn't.

I just disagree with a philosophy that says never use a top 2 round pick on a goalie.

If your scouting staff has identified someone with high end starting potential, you take him. It's not like you are just as likely to get a Sebastien Aho in the 2nd round, that is rare.. more likely you end up with Jacob De La Rose.

 

[Vachon23]

Yeah, that's an outlier.

This draft, if Hrabal is still there at 31/32, or 37th and the habs take him, I'd be fine and happy with that pick.

I'm not trying to say trade for other team's goalies they drafted in the 4th round, but rather the goalie of your team's future might be drafted in the 4th by your team.

Draft goalies, but don't feel the need to draft a goalie mid first- mid 2nd every time.

You should never draft for need in the top 2 rounds because you don't even know what will be your hole in 3-4 years. A good exemple I have, a lot of people didn't want Moritz Seider in 2019 when he was ranked in our draft range because we where stack on the RD with Weber, Petry, Juulsen and Brook but 4 years later, RD is one of our biggest need.

 

[Vachon23]

 

[pylero]

I mean we can argue that Smith is the 3rd most offensively gifted player in the draft behind Bedard and michkov. Maybe Habs pass on him to take reinbacher but I dont think it's an indictment of his talent just his compete level and maybe need if Habs brass sees that cluster of players on the same tier

I mostly agree with you. My post was a mock and not personal rankings. I do believe that Reinbacher is the target for habs' brass, not only because of teams needs, but from the lack of details given by Hughes in his morning presser. Seems like smokescreen to me. I do have a hunch that Smith is not coming to Montreal too, and Hughes' comment (or lack thereof about his play) just added to this feeling.

I would also definitely bet that Leonard is going higher than Smith - this is a copycat league, and Zegras, his best comparable IMO, went 9 in 2019. Many will believe his lack of defensive implication will hurt him at the next level. I see him going to Arizona, where they'll be happy to bet on another American kid going to college. He'll essentially be their Keller replacement IMO.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I mostly agree with you. My post was a mock and not personal rankings. I do believe that Reinbacher is the target for habs' brass, not only because of teams needs, but from the lack of details given by Hughes in his morning presser. Seems like smokescreen to me. I do have a hunch that Smith is not coming to Montreal too, and Hughes' comment (or lack thereof about his play) just added to this feeling.

I would also definitely bet that Leonard is going higher than Smith - this is a copycat league, and Zegras, his best comparable IMO, went 9 in 2019. Many will believe his lack of defensive implication will hurt him at the next level. I see him going to Arizona, where they'll be happy to bet on another American kid going to college. He'll essentially be their Keller replacement IMO.

I don't think Arizona would go Smith.. they just went Cooley. Arizona is a more likely destination for Leonard or Reinbacher, even Dvorsky.

Anthony M confirmed to me that Hrabal was also interviewed by the Habs.

 

[Vachon23]

I like everything about that kid !

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

I mostly agree with you. My post was a mock and not personal rankings. I do believe that Reinbacher is the target for habs' brass, not only because of teams needs, but from the lack of details given by Hughes in his morning presser. Seems like smokescreen to me. I do have a hunch that Smith is not coming to Montreal too, and Hughes' comment (or lack thereof about his play) just added to this feeling.

I would also definitely bet that Leonard is going higher than Smith - this is a copycat league, and Zegras, his best comparable IMO, went 9 in 2019. Many will believe his lack of defensive implication will hurt him at the next level. I see him going to Arizona, where they'll be happy to bet on another American kid going to college. He'll essentially be their Keller replacement IMO.

Yeah I do agree that Habs are either going to go with Reinbacher or Leonard. Hughes has basically indirectly indicated that he sees the players available to him on the same level talent wise. So at that point, he can think about roster construction and those two players are the most obvious fits for the Habs. Especially reinbacher

 

[MasterMatt25]

Based on Hughes interviews, I'm guessing the priority is (assuming top 4 has Bedard/Fantilli/Carlsson all gone):

1. Smith
2. Leonard
3. Reinbacher
4. Dvorsky




170. Michkov

 

[NekkiChiconey]

Hmm. Not sure I agree. Beck had a good season but it's entirely plausible that one of the top 3Gs in this class has a better D+1. Hutson sure but that's a pretty unique situation. What about like Jesper Wallstedt? I don't think Beck's value is anywhere close to him right now, and I'm a big fan of Beck.

Jesper Wallstedt was touted as a first round pick for a while and was picked 20th. Let's also not forget Cossa, who by all accounts seems like a wasted pick right now.

I just think it's easy to say that your scouts can "identify a future starter" with any kind of certainty, whereas "any forward left at 35 is a future 3rd liner anyway". The scouting staff will always think they found gems in every round. All I'm saying is, do not pick a goalie just because.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

This draft still has potential to get very weird, Reinbacher and Leonard could go top-5, meaning 2 of Smith, Carlsson, and Michkov go 6 and 7, with the other getting picked 3rd

And michkov could fall way past 7

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

This draft still has potential to get very weird, Reinbacher and Leonard could go top-5, meaning 2 of Smith, Carlsson, and Michkov go 6 and 7, with the other getting picked 3rd

And michkov could fall way past 7

If Carlsson drops to 5, I guarantee Habs pick him. I'd be willing to bet all the cash in my wallet which is like $65 but the thought still matters

 

[Johan Bostrom]

1. Bedard

2. Fantilli

3. Carlsson

4. Michkov

5. Smith

6. Leonard

7. Benson

8. Reinbacher

9. Dvorsky

10. Perreault

11. Wood

12. Moore

13. Barlow

14. But

15. Willander

16. Yager

17. Sale

18. Sandin Pellikka

19. Simashev

20. Musty

My rankings following just the forum and watching highligts (from Sweden). Any major flaws?