HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

[Vachon23]

I will admit like with Wright last year my assessment of Michkov is primarily based on games from 2 years ago lol

Like for myself

But you do talk about other options available

 

[NotProkofievian]

I don't doubt YOU watch game

My point was more that most posters that complain 24/7 that we need to take only Michkov where not even posting in the draft thread before the lottery and they never say what they like so much about Michkov except that his an elite talent

Michkov is a pretty perfect example of my reasoning regarding points and traits. Michkov is far from a perfect player. There is plenty to dislike in his game on a shift to shift basis. I've seen some downright ugly complete games from him. However, because his production is so far away from anything you could consider normal it makes people slow their roll.

But that's true, only to a lesser extent for other players as well, just it doesn't get applied. I'm not advocating for scouting by one single stat alone, but on production alone Cristall is top 5. Cristall is not a top 5 player in this draft, but IMO, the range to which you can reasonably drop him is like...to 15 or so. Not 35 to 65. That is just nonsense. Half of those guys between 5 and 35 are going to bust or become journeymen, and maybe 1 or 2 of them have anywhere near the upside.

 

[Kent Nilsson]

Why are people panicking about PP1 when you can get Klingberg, Gustafsson or Gostisbehere for spare change at the TDL ?

The playoffs are decided at 5v5 anyway. Thats where you need big minutes eaters like Ekblad, Pietrangelo or Slavin (none of these are PP phenoms). Reinbacher is a great great pick at 5 if you think he’s that.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

NHL has released its combine list. Not surprisingly no Russians or Belarusians.

 

[Mrb1p]

If his vision is as good as people say, and he isn't unduly benefitting from a pair of super capable linemates, I think he will be a point producer in the NHL. Top10? Hardly. Top30 possible. Keep in mind 8m dollar captain of the Habs Suzuki isn't even top60. We need a productive forward, we need many productive forwards.

Reinbacher won't be a top10 defenseman either, so I don't get why everybody is so insistant to be critical toward every prospect and super high and upbeat about Reinbacher specifically.

That sounds like a very definitive thing to say. Why cant Reinbacher be a top 10 D in the league? He has every tool to get there. Id say he has as good a shot as any U21 defender /Power to get to the top 10.

For all those who are talking about the Habs needing to take only Michkov 24h/7

I’m curious to know, how many games have you watch of him in the past 2 years ?

KHL games are super easy to acquire, theres a bunch of games on youtube and footage and he played internationally in 21 and 22, but Im 100% sure people didnt watch.

For my part, I did, and Michkov is just as good as Bedard and I love Reinbacher, probably more than everyone here and have seen a lot of his game and I believe I was the first one to rank him in my top 5, let alone 10 and the Habs would be insanely stupid to pick him ahead of Matvei.

Such a bad take…

Only Franchise Center hard harder to find then #1 Dmen

Id say generational talent, Patrick Kane level talent is much harder to find than both. Were talking top 3 player in the league qualiry.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

I'm not debating Michkov v Reinbacher. This is a non-issue for me and probably 90% of posters on here. If Michkov is there, you pick him.

To your point though, how many true elite RD are there in the league? I encourage you to try and count them, you'll probably be surprised. I have:

Makar
Fox
McAvoy
Hamilton
Karlsson
Seider
Montour? Pietrangelo? Burns? (Not even sure)

And then a group of RDs that are either good but non-elite, or old: Letang, Ekblad, Doughty, Carlson... It's at least on par with 1C in terms of rarity. Again, my point is:

If you believe Reinbacher can be part of that 1st group, then it makes sense to pick him at 5, if Michkov is gone.

I personally think his most likely outcome is the 2nd tier, which is why I wouldn't pick him before Benson.

I was responding regarding the tweet. It was a bit hyperbolic, but indeed I agree that it will be easier to find a Reinbacher on FA than a Michkov becauae of the reasons I stated.

 

[Gravity]

When is Bob MacKenzie releasing his final list?

 

[SwiftyHab]

I don’t know man; I don’t see many #1 /#2 Dman laying around on July 1st annually…. Pietrangelo was a big one, Suter as well. I think they are both equally rare.

It depends on what the guy thinks Reinbacher will be but the premise is weird to me.

Unlike Owen power or Dahlin who most thought were #1 Ds from the start but worst case would be great 2/3s, Reinbacher is likely a 2/3 and could be a 1 depending on development.

 

[BergevinBurner]

When is Bob MacKenzie releasing his final list?

A week prior to the draft.

 

[Schooner Guy]

Yeah, saw Draisaitl and Stone skate as prospects as well. Easier to hire a skating coach than to teach a great skater to shoot, pass, and think like he does.

I guarantee Wood has had several skating coaches since before he could tie his own skates. Just like pretty much every elite North American hockey player. Every single one of those skating coaches has tried to correct his mechanics. He can still make improvements but so will everyone else. One thing about hockey in this century is the game keeps on getting faster.

Yea I do think so, except for maybe Benson. I don't see a center like Smith with his numbers dropping past 5, we will see.

Many don't see Smith as a center at the NHL level.

When is Bob MacKenzie releasing his final list?

It usually comes out 4-7 days before the draft.

 

[CzarDemidov]

That sounds like a very definitive thing to say. Why cant Reinbacher be a top 10 D in the league? He has every tool to get there. Id say he has as good a shot as any U21 defender /Power to get to the top 10.

If the preponderance of scouts thought Reinbacher could be a top10 D in the NHL he would be ranked higher on a preponderance of lists. I don’t have any issue with the player but isn’t it strange the discussion is only looking at the maximal upside? Why can’t he be another (name from a hat) Jeff Petry?

Why are Smith’s weaknesses and Michkov’s weaknesses magnified but there is nothing to say about Reinbacher’s profile? If he’s really flawless then he would be ranked much higher on many more lists — no?

 

[calder candidate]

Michkov should have been neck a neck with Bedard, now there a political situation we didn’t the confrontation at the WJC. He will slide because a team like ANA, CBJ might will play it safe Fantilli, Carlson, Smith are very good prospect and are C, faster /fit their timeline better.
SJ will likely be tanking harder this year I don’t see any issue for them to waiting 3 years for the best player.
MTL most glaring need is RD but the also need to add top 6 talents and a legit goalie the only position where we seem to have a log jam is LD.

 

[Seb]

Unlike Owen power or Dahlin who most thought were #1 Ds from the start but worst case would be great 2/3s, Reinbacher is likely a 2/3 and could be a 1 depending on development.

Why is Reinbacher likely a 2/3? He's already playing on the top line in a men's league.

 

[BergevinBurner]

Why is Reinbacher likely a 2/3? He's already playing on the top line in a men's league.

Because he does everything ok, but nothing exceptional.

Bob McKenzie's list has him at 10th, so I'd have to imagine that means most of the scouts he surveyed don't see him as #1D or he'd be at least a bit higher up.

 

[Mrb1p]

If the preponderance of scouts thought Reinbacher could be a top10 D in the NHL he would be ranked higher on a preponderance of lists. I don’t have any issue with the player but isn’t it strange the discussion is only looking at the maximal upside? Why can’t he be another (name from a hat) Jeff Petry?

Why are Smith’s weaknesses and Michkov’s weaknesses magnified but there is nothing to say about Reinbacher’s profile? If he’s really flawless then he would be ranked much higher on many more lists — no?

And the preponderance of scouts had Slaf at 1. Cant use appeal to autorithy only when it fits your narrative.

Michkov has no weaknesses. Reinbacher has very limited weaknesses, hes just that good. Namely, puck handling and creativity.

Because he does everything ok, but nothing exceptional.

Bob McKenzie's list has him at 10th, so I'd have to imagine that means most of the scouts he surveyed don't see him as #1D or he'd be at least a bit higher up.

Theres a gulf between okay and exceptional, Reinbacher probably scores a 8.5 on most of those attributes, thats not "ok". Thats elite territory. Hes not any more "ok" than Hughes, Edvinsson, Nemec, Jiricek, Mintyukov and co. In fact? Of all these, Id say he has the highest overall score.

 

[Seb]

Because he does everything ok, but nothing exceptional.

Bob McKenzie's list has him at 10th, so I'd have to imagine that means most of the scouts he surveyed don't see him as #1D or he'd be at least a bit higher up.

Doing everything "ok" is putting it very lightly. He plays top minutes in a men's league, getting 22 pts in 46 games (2 in 3 in the playoffs).

You don't do that by being only "ok".

Reinbacher is a very controversial prospect right now, his spot varies so much from list to list. I am sure that some scouts/teams have him more around 5 than 10. I agree with them.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Doing everything "ok" is putting it very lightly. He plays top minutes in a men's league, getting 22 pts in 46 games (2 in 3 in the playoffs).

You don't do that by being only "ok".

Reinbacher is a very controversial prospect right now, his spot varies so much from list to list. I am sure that some scouts/teams have him more around 5 than 10. I agree with them.

Only OK at everything is such a miscalculation and misrepresentation.

He doesn't dangle people and doesn't pass the puck through 3 sets of feet in the regular season. That's what they mean.

He's a high end skater.
His defensive game is very strong and projects to be high-end to elite.
His handling skills are average.
His passing skills are above average.
His panic threshold is at a high level.
He has a high end shot for a defenseman.

He's the guy who eats 25-30 minutes of ice and puts your team in advantageous positions the entire time.

 

[BergevinBurner]

Theres a gulf between okay and exceptional, Reinbacher probably scores a 8.5 on most of those attributes, thats not "ok". Thats elite territory. Hes not any more "ok" than Hughes, Edvinsson, Nemec, Jiricek, Mintyukov and co. In fact? Of all these, Id say he has the highest overall score.

Well most NHL scouts don't see it like that or he'd be way high up on Bob's list.

 

[Seb]

Only OK at everything is such a miscalculation and misrepresentation.

He doesn't dangle people and doesn't pass the puck through 3 sets of feet in the regular season. That's what they mean.

He's a high end skater.
His defensive game is very strong and projects to be high-end to elite.
His handling skills are average.
His passing skills are above average.
His panic threshold is at a high level.
He has a high end shot for a defenseman.

He's the guy who eats 25-30 minutes of ice and puts your team in advantageous positions the entire time.

I think they are trying to compare him to players like Erik Karlsson which is so wrong. Because he doesn't have the high end dynamism, skating or shot doesn't mean he won't be effective offensively.

The comparison is even more wrong when you see how these high end offensive minded players usually are defensively.

So you have the chance here to pick a guy who will be a god damn wall defensively, eat top minutes in a game AND contribute offensively. But because he doesn't have Makar's skating, Weber's shot or Andrei Markov's IQ he is seen as a low ceiling player?

Man I hope Reinbacher gets picked later in the draft and proves everyone wrong.

 

[Andrei79]

Because he does everything ok, but nothing exceptional.

Bob McKenzie's list has him at 10th, so I'd have to imagine that means most of the scouts he surveyed don't see him as #1D or he'd be at least a bit higher up.

There's always lag though on Bob's list. Pettersson was 11th in his draft lottery list in April and ended up 7th in his final list, only to be drafted 5th. Well have a clearer idea in June.

 

[Jack Skellington]

Well most NHL scouts don't see it like that or he'd be way high up on Bob's list.

He's had a meteoric rise and 90 percent of public lists are just piggybacking off of other lists and making slight changes. He will very likely be between picks 4-7 on Bob's final list and all the other lists will follow suit. Cam Allen was 8 on McKenzie's list before the season, should we take him?

 

[DiglettDangles]

Only OK at everything is such a miscalculation and misrepresentation.

He doesn't dangle people and doesn't pass the puck through 3 sets of feet in the regular season. That's what they mean.

He's a high end skater.
His defensive game is very strong and projects to be high-end to elite.
His handling skills are average.
His passing skills are above average.
His panic threshold is at a high level.
He has a high end shot for a defenseman.

He's the guy who eats 25-30 minutes of ice and puts your team in advantageous positions the entire time.

Not responding to you in particular but on the Reinbacher topic.

I guess what doesn't excite people, me included, is that we expect a game-breaker at 5OA.
A Michkov/Carlsson/Smith/Benson is a guy the opposing team has to adjust their gameplan around.
Reinbacher is the opposite, he's the guy you send out as your gameplan adjustment.
Both are very valuable.

But it tells a lot about an organization (active/reactive) if all your players are risk mitigators instead of risk takers.
Caufield and Suzuki are the only guys on this team that bring any type of danger level and fear.
Dach and Slaf can get there mostly if they start using their big frame to disrupt.
Hutson too but because he's deceptive.

I think that to get to the top you need that aura of danger, that ballstothewallness, that ability to get the opponent out of their comfort zone.

I want the Habs to be the unstoppable force, not the Price-led immovable object of the last 15 years.

 

[Mrb1p]

Well most NHL scouts don't see it like that or he'd be way high up on Bob's list.

MoST NHL sCOUTs

 

[Jack Skellington]

Not responding to you in particular but on the Reinbacher topic.

I guess what doesn't excite people, me included, is that we expect a game-breaker at 5OA.
A Michkov/Carlsson/Smith/Benson is a guy the opposing team has to adjust their gameplan around.
Reinbacher is the opposite, he's the guy you send out as your gameplan adjustment.
Both are very valuable.

But it tells a lot about an organization (active/reactive) if all your players are risk mitigators instead of risk takers.
Caufield and Suzuki are the only guys on this team that bring any type of danger level and fear.
Dach and Slaf can get there mostly if they start using their big frame to disrupt.
Hutson too but because he's deceptive.

I think that to get to the top you need that aura of danger, that ballstothewallness, that ability to get the opponent out of their comfort zone.

I want the Habs to be the unstoppable force, not the Price-led immovable object of the last 15 years.

Ok we should have tanked harder then because unless Michkov or Carlsson fall to 5, that top line star likely isn't available anyways. Smith and Benson are far more likely to end up as solid top 6 contributing wingers than 90 point star players. This is just the nature of the draft. If the Habs for whatever reason project Reinbacher as a 50-60pt number one dman and the other forwards as ~60 point wingers then that's an easy choice.

 

[le_sean]

I think they are trying to compare him to players like Erik Karlsson which is so wrong. Because he doesn't have the high end dynamism, skating or shot doesn't mean he won't be effective offensively.

The comparison is even more wrong when you see how these high end offensive minded players usually are defensively.

So you have the chance here to pick a guy who will be a god damn wall defensively, eat top minutes in a game AND contribute offensively. But because he doesn't have Makar's skating, Weber's shot or Andrei Markov's IQ he is seen as a low ceiling player?

Man I hope Reinbacher gets picked later in the draft and proves everyone wrong.

Speaking of Karlsson, how did his team do despite his ludicrous offensive season? Like how do you get 101 points and -26?