HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

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If your claim is that Signing FAs is difficult for Montreal, then it also applies to forwards.

Cost control doesn't exist, it's an irrelevant argument. Go ask Cole Caufield, who has not played a single full NHL season yet, if he's going to be cost controlled when we need him to be.
So you’re saying Caufield would get the same contract from the Habs if he was a UFA? And that he’d have the same chance of re-signing with the Habs without them owning his rights? Or the fact they can offer an extra year?

It definitely does exist. To deny it is an odd hill to die on.
 
So you’re saying Caufield would get the same contract from the Habs if he was a UFA? And that he’d have the same chance of re-signing with the Habs without them owning his rights? Or the fact they can offer an extra year?

It definitely does exist. To deny it is an odd hill to die on.
Can you define cost control and give us some examples of it in action?
 
You should start your own scouting agency bud..! Surprising you don't do that for a living, instead of talking on the internet with a bunch of amator lmfao. All I'm saying, is that they are not picking a D top 5 this year, will see soon enough.

You should start your own scouting agency bud..!
Please do not feed his ego...it is getting too big for this forum as it stands now.:sarcasm:
 
I expect Reinbacher at 5 followed by mini-melt down on this board followed by an announcement of a trade then we grab Wood
Take a look at our last draft, all strong skaters from pick 1 to pick 127. Pretty sure Habs have no interest in Wood at all, NHL is all speed and pace, Wood isnt that.
 
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Based on all the draft literature I’ve read it seems to me you’re really severely underrating Smith’s upside. Look at his reports and stats, he’s something special.
I've read that same literature, and I've seen him play between 5-7 games. I'm not going to pretend I've seen his entire season. However, the gap between current stats/skills and actual NHL performance has to be bridged by projecting his skills onto NHL play. This is what holds Smith back for me. The skill will still be there, but he'll have less time, less space, less puck share, better opponents, and more responsabilities. I'm skeptical about how well the way he produces now will translate. Is it 50%? 90%?.

Don't get it twisted though, he's still very high on my list (6-8) and chances are he'll be a very good player. I'll also say that he has the best vision in the draft, and possibly the best I've seen since J Hughes. I just don't think he'll be a 1C, nor a top-10 point producer in the league.
 
I've read that same literature, and I've seen him play between 5-7 games. I'm not going to pretend I've seen his entire season. However, the gap between current stats/skills and actual NHL performance has to be bridged by projecting his skills onto NHL play. This is what holds Smith back for me. The skill will still be there, but he'll have less time, less space, less puck share, better opponents, and more responsabilities. I'm skeptical about how well the way he produces now will translate. Is it 50%? 90%?.

Don't get it twisted though, he's still very high on my list (6-8) and chances are he'll be a very good player. I'll also say that he has the best vision in the draft, and possibly the best I've seen since J Hughes. I just don't think he'll be a 1C, nor a top-10 point producer in the league.

What about Smith's offense do you think doesn't translate ? He thinks quickly and has the deception in his game thats usually successful in the NHL.
 
Both are likely top 10 picks, how would they be reaches?
The concensus top5 on pretty much everylist except maybe Button is Bedard-Fantilli-Carlsson-Michkov-Smith. Not taking one of theses 5 is a reach, not saying it's a bad decision, but it's gonna go againts most list we can read. I really don't think Molson will take Michkov, maybe that's why Mise-O-Jeu have Dvorsky or Reinbacher over him, Honestly it's really hard to know, that's why we speculate, but I'm really confident the Habs are going to take a Foward with the pick. Maybe if we get Dubois at the draft, they will opt for the defense, maybe.
 
The concensus top5 on pretty much everylist except maybe Button is Bedard-Fantilli-Carlsson-Michkov-Smith. Not taking one of theses 5 is a reach, not saying it's a bad decision, but it's gonna go againts most list we can read. I really don't think Molson will take Michkov, maybe that's why Mise-O-Jeu have Dvorsky or Reinbacher over him, Honestly it's really hard to know, that's why we speculate, but I'm really confident the Habs are going to take a Foward with the pick. Maybe if we get Dubois at the draft, they will opt for the defense, maybe.

At which spot would you consider him not being a reach?
 
The better arguments against Reinbacher are more like ;
we have the opportunity to grab a premium scoring forward and those forwards are only found at the very top of drafts - which is not even a guarantee every year.

Instead of he's 20th on some lists or he's not Makar-like ..
True.

But on the other end, that is realistically only true for Bedard and Michkov.

Nobody else is a surefirer priemium scoring forward.

Obviously, i won't also argue against taking Reinbacher above Fantilli or Carlsson.

But after them, we are in a more speculative spot to acquire a premium scoring forward and at this point, the bet on Reinbacher may be more tempting than the bet on Smith or Benson for example.

We have the opportunity to select a potential premium scoring at 5 but the odds are greatly diminished there and we should go BPA, not need.

Reinbacher has a case for BPA at 5 imo.
 
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What about Smith's offense do you think doesn't translate ? He thinks quickly and has the deception in his game thats usually successful in the NHL.
Thinks quickly, high hockey IQ and elite vision, he also goes near the net. I don't see how his game doesn't translate. I feel people say that about some skills players every year and it's a mistake because their game round up as they mature as players.
 
At which spot would you consider him not being a reach?
I think after 5 it really depends on who likes who, but I see the top 5 being clear. Was KK a reach at 3? I would say yea. Maybe reach is not the good word, but I'm gonna be highly surprise if they choose Reinbacher at 5. He's not the guy with the most upside and he's not a need IMO. I would be less surprise to see Dvorsy being pick, considering his nationality and performance at the WJC and U18. Finally, I just want us to draft the guy with the highest offensive potential, and I think Smith and Michkov are the guys to look at. We have enough two way players and D in the pipeline, what we lack is a true offensive superstar to play with Cole.
 
The concensus top5 on pretty much everylist except maybe Button is Bedard-Fantilli-Carlsson-Michkov-Smith. Not taking one of theses 5 is a reach, not saying it's a bad decision, but it's gonna go againts most list we can read. I really don't think Molson will take Michkov, maybe that's why Mise-O-Jeu have Dvorsky or Reinbacher over him, Honestly it's really hard to know, that's why we speculate, but I'm really confident the Habs are going to take a Foward with the pick. Maybe if we get Dubois at the draft, they will opt for the defense, maybe.
Do you think the odds favor Reinbacher and Dvorsky over Michkov because of the russian factor, or because there is very low chance he is available at 5?

Also what are the odds of Carlsson, Fantilli and Smith?

I would not put too much stock into it. I think the odds last year vastly favored Wright but they grinded slowly in favor of Slafkovsky.
 
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What about Smith's offense do you think doesn't translate ? He thinks quickly and has the deception in his game thats usually successful in the NHL.
He thinks quickly but as of now doesn't have the feet to follow (in the NHL). He has the puck on his stick for sooo long with the usntdp and can effectively evaluate his options, but he won't have nearly as much time in the NHL. I don't think he'll score from distance, but also won't drive the net to pick-up rebounds. I still think he scores 30-ish goals, but to really be elite offensively I think he'll need linemates who can both finish and open up the play for him.

Essentially, is his offensive package better than Suzuki?
 
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The concensus top5 on pretty much everylist except maybe Button is Bedard-Fantilli-Carlsson-Michkov-Smith. Not taking one of theses 5 is a reach, not saying it's a bad decision, but it's gonna go againts most list we can read. I really don't think Molson will take Michkov, maybe that's why Mise-O-Jeu have Dvorsky or Reinbacher over him, Honestly it's really hard to know, that's why we speculate, but I'm really confident the Habs are going to take a Foward with the pick. Maybe if we get Dubois at the draft, they will opt for the defense, maybe.

We know why a team wouldn't pick Michkov and it isn't a Canadiens only issue. They're not passing him over due to hockey reasons. It's annoying to see the discourse talk about "reaches" in that context. Nobody called Jayden Schwartz a reach because both Tarasenko and Kuznetsov were there, yet the situation was more stable back then. A reach is Blake Wheeler at 5.
 
Do you think the odds favor Reinbacher and Dvorsky over Michkov because of the russian factor, or because there is very low chance he is available at 5?
I think there's a good chance Grier goes after him, he pretty much said it. I also don't believe Molson is going to allow us to take him. He really really didn't like the bad press after the Mailloux pick, I just don't see it happening. I hope I'm wrong though. I want to end the draft with Michkov or Smith, and let the kid develop at least an other full year.
 
The concensus top5 on pretty much everylist except maybe Button is Bedard-Fantilli-Carlsson-Michkov-Smith. Not taking one of theses 5 is a reach, not saying it's a bad decision, but it's gonna go againts most list we can read. I really don't think Molson will take Michkov, maybe that's why Mise-O-Jeu have Dvorsky or Reinbacher over him, Honestly it's really hard to know, that's why we speculate, but I'm really confident the Habs are going to take a Foward with the pick. Maybe if we get Dubois at the draft, they will opt for the defense, maybe.

Do you really think there is a huge gap in talent between Smith and the rest of the top 10? Michkov for sure, but there are other risks with him. Personally I won't be surprised if those 5 are NOT the top 5 picks. In facts I wouldn't even be THAT surprised if both Smith & Michkov are not taken top 5. Things like this happen most years.
 
We know why a team wouldn't pick Michkov and it isn't a Canadiens only issue. They're not passing him over due to hockey reasons. It's annoying to see the discourse talk about "reaches" in that context. Nobody called Jayden Schwartz a reach because both Tarasenko and Kuznetsov were there, yet the situation was more stable back then. A reach is Blake Wheeler at 5.
Not an easy life huh....We don't have the same definition of reach, get over it. Like I said, I think the top5 is pretty clear, we don't agree, fine.

Do you really think there is a huge gap in talent between Smith and the rest of the top 10? Michkov for sure, but there are other risks with him. Personally I won't be surprised if those 5 are NOT the top 5 picks. In facts I wouldn't even be THAT surprised if both Smith & Michkov are not taken top 5. Things like this happen most years.
Yea I do think so, except for maybe Benson. I don't see a center like Smith with his numbers dropping past 5, we will see.
 
I think after 5 it really depends on who likes who, but I see the top 5 being clear. Was KK a reach at 3? I would say yea. Maybe reach is not the good word, but I'm gonna be highly surprise if they choose Reinbacher at 5. He's not the guy with the most upside and he's not a need IMO. I would be less surprise to see Dvorsy being pick, considering his nationality and performance at the WJC and U18. Finally, I just want us to draft the guy with the highest offensive potential, and I think Smith and Michkov are the guys to look at. We have enough two way players and D in the pipeline, what we lack is a true offensive superstar to play with Cole.
If they want Rsinbacker probably could trade down to 8 or 9 and get him. Pick up another first.
 
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Not an easy life huh....We don't have the same definition of reach, get over it. Like I said, I think the top5 is pretty clear, we don't agree, fine.

Yeah, on a discussion board you'll be pressed on your opinions, "get over it". Who the hell gets pissy at the word "annoying" :laugh:. It's pretty clear what reasons would motivate teams to pass over Michkov. They wouldn't be hockey reasons. If he goes 8th-9th-10th the players drafted before him won't be reaches anymore than Jayden Schwartz was a reach.
 
What about Smith's offense do you think doesn't translate ? He thinks quickly and has the deception in his game thats usually successful in the NHL.

Too many low percentage passing plays, pretty consistent low effort when he doesn't have the puck, uses the same hip-pocket deke in nearly every situation, doesn't engage along the boards, weak in front of the net, holds onto the puck for an eternity, relies heavily on elite linemates to create space/retrieve pucks/generate turnovers/start transition. All mostly normal things for this type of player, but concerning in the top-5. Great at what he does, has some holes.

He's had just about the perfect conditions a prospect could ask for in their draft year and we really haven't seen him outside of his comfort zone - almost no time away from his elite linemates or in contexts where his deep, all-star squad isn't matched up against weaker opponents (USHL, group stage at the U18s was embarassing). It's a narrow, junior-style game at this point and he doesn't appear to have outstanding physical characteristics that might help him carve out a niche.

I think he's going to be an excellent complementary winger as the hands and IQ are really exceptional. However, I don't see a 1C or player you want out in all situations and with all linemates. It could take some major development (2-3yrs NCAA?) for him to start to round out his game - totally possible for it to happen, but this isn't a slam dunk. I think he gets a lot of hype because he's the #1 ranked US-born player and has pretty eye-popping numbers that are a bit less impressive in context.
 
Too many low percentage passing plays, pretty consistent low effort when he doesn't have the puck, uses the same hip-pocket deke in nearly every situation, doesn't engage along the boards, weak in front of the net, holds onto the puck for an eternity, relies heavily on elite linemates to create space/retrieve pucks/generate turnovers/start transition. All mostly normal things for this type of player, but concerning in the top-5. Great at what he does, has some holes.

He's had just about the perfect conditions a prospect could ask for in their draft year and we really haven't seen him outside of his comfort zone - almost no time away from his elite linemates or in contexts where his deep, all-star squad isn't matched up against weaker opponents (USHL, group stage at the U18s was embarassing). It's a narrow, junior-style game at this point and he doesn't appear to have outstanding physical characteristics that might help him carve out a niche.

I think he's going to be an excellent complementary winger as the hands and IQ are really exceptional. However, I don't see a 1C or player you want out in all situations and with all linemates. It could take some major development (2-3yrs NCAA?) for him to start to round out his game - totally possible for it to happen, but this isn't a slam dunk. I think he gets a lot of hype because he's the #1 ranked US-born player and has pretty eye-popping numbers that are a bit less impressive in context.

Very fair points. I like the idea of not only trying to sell a prospect, but trying to do the opposite. I mean, tell me why we shouldn't draft him so we don't end up with too many blind spots. I would say though that a lot of this I would view as arguments not to rush him to the NHL rather than things you don't see in a top 5 pick. We actually saw quite a bit of this in Jack Hughes (though I wouldn't compare them too much, Hughes was too elite of a skater in comparison). Smith won't be able to get as many puck touches or space, but that means cutting down on some of the creativity he can afford himself right now, but even cutting this down, quite a bit of his points came off plays that would work on the next level, or that just need a bit of tweaking. You're working with more there than quite a few other players.
 
I think I just have a problem with the overall thought flow. It seems like the argument is that because Dvorsky has all these good things going for him, the fact that he had anemic offense even taking into account league quality is not a problem at all. Similarly, because Ciernik has all these negative traits as our friend @Egresch has pointed out at least 5 times already (below), his points don't mean shit.

I think that's the wrong way to go about it. I think it makes more sense to take the points for what they have historically been worth (accounting for league quality), and realize that the player, with all their faults and strengths, was able to accomplish that much.

IMO that should tell you if you are likely to be over or underestimating a player's offensive potential based on other factors. The fact that Ciernik is not in consideration for the late first given his production says to me that some people are overestimating their own ability to call a bust.

Once again....points mean very little without context. Ciernik scored at a higher pace than Forsberg in the same league in his draft year as well. I have no doubt that Smith would not have scored much if he was in Dvorsky's position either.

It just doesn't make any sense whatsoever to try and make a competent judgement based on stats when top prospects historically don't score much in these leagues and even the ones that have they are in entirely different situations. Look at Huberdeau this year, he is the exact same player he was in Florida but he is with a new coach , system and linemates and it did not work. Blindly following stats is always a pointless exercise. Environment has played an enormous role in year to year fluctuations of players point totals in all leagues at all levels.

I respect your opinion but we may have to agree to disagree here as we have both communicated our positions pretty clearly and aren't likely to find any further common ground on this topic.
 
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