HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

[SannywithoutCompy]

... Have you watched him try to skate?

Yeah, saw Draisaitl and Stone skate as prospects as well. Easier to hire a skating coach than to teach a great skater to shoot, pass, and think like he does.

 

[ReHabs]

I'm not a huge fan of Reinbacher. I prefer ASP. I think the main thing about Reinbacher to criticize is a lot of the hype around him is that he will keep developing and ironing out his game, which is possible. But it's also possible that despite a nice toolbox it never all adds up. There are some examples of those kind of fast skating defensemen drafted high who never took the next level and ended up mediocre.

I think Reinbacher probably is the first dman picked because someone will think he's an unpolished gem. And maybe he is. But I think picking forwards early makes more sense this year.

Some commentators here love to see the toolbox even if it isn't there. Not only that, but they love to see the future upside and build their arguments entirely on that hill. I find it strange and unusual because they're otherwise very aware that prospects bust and fall short of their potential all the time.

 

[SOLR]

Only 30 days left until I can start the 2024 Draft thread and start discussing Celebrini ad nauseum. Oh what a time we live in.

 

[NekkiChiconey]

Thing is, Michkov is much more likely to be a top 10-20 point producer in the league than Reinbacher is to become a 1st pair D, let alone an elite 1st pair D. Also, there are 60 or so first pair Ds to go around, it's a wide definition and doesn't necessarily equate the type of contribution and role Michkov will have.

I'm not debating Michkov v Reinbacher. This is a non-issue for me and probably 90% of posters on here. If Michkov is there, you pick him.

To your point though, how many true elite RD are there in the league? I encourage you to try and count them, you'll probably be surprised. I have:

Makar
Fox
McAvoy
Hamilton
Karlsson
Seider
Montour? Pietrangelo? Burns? (Not even sure)

And then a group of RDs that are either good but non-elite, or old: Letang, Ekblad, Doughty, Carlson... It's at least on par with 1C in terms of rarity. Again, my point is:

If you believe Reinbacher can be part of that 1st group, then it makes sense to pick him at 5, if Michkov is gone.

I personally think his most likely outcome is the 2nd tier, which is why I wouldn't pick him before Benson.

 

[ReHabs]

I'm not debating Michkov v Reinbacher. This is a non-issue for me and probably 90% of posters on here. If Michkov is there, you pick him.

To your point though, how many true elite RD are there in the league? I encourage you to try and count them, you'll probably be surprised. I have:

Makar
Fox
McAvoy
Hamilton
Karlsson
Seider
Montour? Pietrangelo? Burns? (Not even sure)

And then a group of RDs that are either good but non-elite, or old: Letang, Ekblad, Doughty, Carlson... It's at least on par with 1C in terms of rarity. Again, my point is:

If you believe Reinbacher can be part of that 1st group, then it makes sense to pick him at 5, if Michkov is gone.

I personally think his most likely outcome is the 2nd tier, which is why I wouldn't pick him before Benson.

If you believe Reinbacher can hit his absolute peak potential, you must consider the same for Smith and Benson and Leonard and so on. In which case, it isn't so sensible to pass on the next Patrick Kane (Benson) or the next super playmaker C (Smith).

 

[Goldenhands]

At this point, more day advance, more I see Carlsson, Smith, Michkov, Leonard or Benson.

If at 5, Habs don't draft one of them, I will be really disappointed about that management.

Its going to be Reinbacher, get ready for it, unless Carlsson drops, what is unlikely. Michkov I would be really surprised with the risk factor, but you never know, there is still a small chance. Cant see Smith or Leonard over Reinbacher. They probably have Dvorsky over Smith on their list anyway...

 

[Jack Skellington]

If you believe Reinbacher can hit his absolute peak potential, you must consider the same for Smith and Benson and Leonard and so on. In which case, it isn't so sensible to pass on the next Patrick Kane (Benson) or the next super playmaker C (Smith).

Why do we have to assume every player has the same probability to hit/bust? If we were doing that, Wood and Cristall are probably above even those 2. All prospects have possible issues that will prevent them from becoming great. Some people here apparently deem Reinbacher to have significantly less. He's already played a huge role in a very good men's league and succeeded.

 

[TomKosto]

Its going to be Reinbacher, get ready for it, unless Carlsson drops, what is unlikely. Michkov I would be really surprised with the risk factor, but you never know, there is still a small chance. Cant see Smith or Leonard over Reinbacher. They probably have Dvorsky over Smith on their list anyway...

It's gonna be Dvorsky before Reinbacher if they go "off the board". I'm pretty sure the management see our D prospects as our force in the pipeline. If they reach, it's gonna be on Dvorsky and not Reinbacher, get ready for it.

 

[Goldenhands]

It's gonna be Dvorsky before Reinbacher if they go "off the board". I'm pretty sure the management see our D prospects as our force in the pipeline. If they reach, it's gonna be on Dvorsky and not Reinbacher, get ready for it.

Take a look at the odds. Reinabcher and Dvorsky are not a reach, they are a reach in your head or in some amator scouting services ones only, the same scouting services who had Wright ranked 1st last year. I think only HP and Recrutes ended up ranking Slaf over Wright. I had Jiricek over Wright since fall, then Slafkovsky passed Wright at the WJC for me, then Kemell, then Cooley...

 

[Jack Skellington]

Take a look at the odds. Reinabcher and Dvorsky are not a reach, they are a reach in your head or in some amator scouting services ones only, the same scouting services who had Wright ranked 1st last year. I think only HP and Recrutes ended up ranking Slaf over Wright. I had Jiricek over Wright since fall, then Slafkovsky passed Wright at the WJC for me, then Kemell, then Cooley...

What site do you find odds for that sort of thing?

 

[TomKosto]

Take a look at the odds. Reinabcher and Dvorsky are not a reach, they are a reach in your head or in some amator scouting services ones only, the same scouting services who had Wright ranked 1st last year. I think only HP and Recrutes ended up ranking Slaf over Wright. I had Jiricek over Wright since fall, then Slafkovsky passed Wright at the WJC for me, then Kemell, then Cooley...

You should start your own scouting agency bud..! Surprising you don't do that for a living, instead of talking on the internet with a bunch of amator lmfao. All I'm saying, is that they are not picking a D top 5 this year, will see soon enough.

 

[Goldenhands]

You should start your own scouting agency bud..!

I know...

 

[TomKosto]

What site do you find odds for that sort of thing?

He's a pro scout + a mathematician genius.

 

[Goldenhands]

You should start your own scouting agency bud..! Surprising you don't do that for a living, instead of talking on the internet with a bunch of amator lmfao

Mise-o-jeu+ has Michkov 4.00, Smith 4.5 Reinbacher 4.75 Leonard 5 Dvorsky 5.5. To sum it up, those are the expected candidates for the Habs and none are a reach.

 

[TomKosto]

Mise-o-jeu+ has Michkov 4.00, Smith 4.5 Reinbacher 5 Dvorsky 5,5. To sum it up, those are the expected candidates for the Habs and none are a reach.

Cant wait to call you an amator when the Habs don't draft Reinbacher, see ya bud.

 

[Goldenhands]

He's a pro scout + a mathematician genius.

Im no mathematician, but a good enough chess player.

 

[TomKosto]

Im no mathematician, but a good enough chess players.

Pro scout + genious mathematician + pro chess player, sorry got it wrong.

 

[Jack Skellington]

Mise-o-jeu+ has Michkov 4.00, Smith 4.5 Reinbacher 5 Dvorsky 5,5. To sum it up, those are the expected candidates for the Habs and none are a reach.

Does the bet void if Michkov was taken before he even falls to our pick or is that possibility built into the odds already? It seems wild to me that he would be the favourite.

 

[NekkiChiconey]

If you believe Reinbacher can hit his absolute peak potential, you must consider the same for Smith and Benson and Leonard and so on. In which case, it isn't so sensible to pass on the next Patrick Kane (Benson) or the next super playmaker C (Smith).

Why do you assume I haven't thought about that? It's a combination of "floor" and "ceiling" and the likeliness of any scenario in-between. I don't think Smith has high odds of reaching his absolute peak (i.e. a lot of things have to go right for that to happen). I think Reinbacher has higher odds. I also think their "ceiling" is really close in terms of value. To illustrate my thought with an arbitrary scale:

Reinbacher's value could go from 20 to 80.
Smith's value could go from 20 to 90.
I see Reinbacher as most likely reaching about 70.
I see Smith as most likely reaching about 60.

 

[ReHabs]

Why do we have to assume every player has the same probability to hit/bust? If we were doing that, Wood and Cristall are probably above even those 2. All prospects have possible issues that will prevent them from becoming great. Some people here apparently deem Reinbacher to have significantly less. He's already played a huge role in a very good men's league and succeeded.

Generally speaking the players I mentioned are often mentioned around each other but we don’t have to assume they have the same hit and bust probability. That’s fair enough.

Let’s focus solely on Reinbacher alone then — why do so many of you assume he has such a high hit probability? Is his performance in the Austrian league really that impressive? Who was his linemate, let’s pick him too.

 

[Goldenhands]

Does the bet void if Michkov was taken before he even falls to our pick or is that possibility built into the odds already? It seems wild to me that he would be the favourite.

Nope. They are calculating the risk factor as high probably, big enough so that Michkov has real chances to drop to us.

Cant wait to call you an amator when the Habs don't draft Reinbacher, see ya bud.

Thats still a possibility, Im not 100% sure they are going to pick Reinbacher, but confident enough I would say.

 

[Spearmint Rhino]

I expect Reinbacher at 5 followed by mini-melt down on this board followed by an announcement of a trade then we grab Wood

 

[ReHabs]

Why do you assume I haven't thought about that? It's a combination of "floor" and "ceiling" and the likeliness of any scenario in-between. I don't think Smith has high odds of reaching his absolute peak (i.e. a lot of things have to go right for that to happen). I think Reinbacher has higher odds. I also think their "ceiling" is really close in terms of value. To illustrate my thought with an arbitrary scale:

Reinbacher's value could go from 20 to 80.
Smith's value could go from 20 to 90.
I see Reinbacher as most likely reaching about 70.
I see Smith as most likely reaching about 60.

Based on all the draft literature I’ve read it seems to me you’re really severely underrating Smith’s upside. Look at his reports and stats, he’s something special.

 

[Andrei79]

It's gonna be Dvorsky before Reinbacher if they go "off the board". I'm pretty sure the management see our D prospects as our force in the pipeline. If they reach, it's gonna be on Dvorsky and not Reinbacher, get ready for it.

Both are likely top 10 picks, how would they be reaches?

 

[SlafySZN]

Absolutely no chance habs has Dvorsky in front of Smith on their list or even passing Smith to take Reinbacher.