HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

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Not an easy life huh....We don't have the same definition of reach, get over it. Like I said, I think the top5 is pretty clear, we don't agree, fine.


Yea I do think so, except for maybe Benson. I don't see a center like Smith with his numbers dropping past 5, we will see.

The thing is that Perrault had even better numbers and Leonards numbers weren't far behind... so numbers alone defintely don't make the case. That whole line played together all year and Smith was definitely the slickest of the 3, but the other 2 guys were great too and arguably have less warts in their game. I think some people feel like Leonard could be a C in the Bo Horvat JT Miller mold...
 
Too many low percentage passing plays, pretty consistent low effort when he doesn't have the puck, uses the same hip-pocket deke in nearly every situation, doesn't engage along the boards, weak in front of the net, holds onto the puck for an eternity, relies heavily on elite linemates to create space/retrieve pucks/generate turnovers/start transition. All mostly normal things for this type of player, but concerning in the top-5. Great at what he does, has some holes.

He's had just about the perfect conditions a prospect could ask for in their draft year and we really haven't seen him outside of his comfort zone - almost no time away from his elite linemates or in contexts where his deep, all-star squad isn't matched up against weaker opponents (USHL, group stage at the U18s was embarassing). It's a narrow, junior-style game at this point and he doesn't appear to have outstanding physical characteristics that might help him carve out a niche.

I think he's going to be an excellent complementary winger as the hands and IQ are really exceptional. However, I don't see a 1C or player you want out in all situations and with all linemates. It could take some major development (2-3yrs NCAA?) for him to start to round out his game - totally possible for it to happen, but this isn't a slam dunk. I think he gets a lot of hype because he's the #1 ranked US-born player and has pretty eye-popping numbers that are a bit less impressive in context.

Yup Smith has some warts... no doubt. Not too mention he is already a polished stone in many regards. He will no doubt be exciting to watch though!
 
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Pronman mock gave us Reinbacher at 5 (says scouts think he can go as high as 4)

But then Molendyk at 31 which is tone deaf to the Habs pool. No way they take Molendyk at 31 let alone after they take Reinbacher at 5.
Once again, Pronman is a joke and has never been involved with hockey. Just an outsider who is was clever enough to target a niche audience. His opinion is entirely meaningless to me.

I have noticed a some growth in a couple of fake scouts that I normally sh*t on which is encouraging but he has been the same tool for so long because he doesn't understand how little he knows therefore isn't trying to learn.

Sorry WTK, not trying to crap on your post. :)
 
My list at 5 is basically
1. Bedard
2. Fantilli
3. Michkov
4. Carlsson
5. Dvorsky/Smith
6. Smith/Dvorsky

Have 6 names just in case Michkov is ND which is looking less and less. Gun to my head I take Dvorsky over Smith but if Hughes knows Smith inside out and is 100% sold on the character and work ethic then I’d roll Smith because it’s razor close.
 
Very fair points. I like the idea of not only trying to sell a prospect, but trying to do the opposite. I mean, tell me why we shouldn't draft him so we don't end up with too many blind spots. I would say though that a lot of this I would view as arguments not to rush him to the NHL rather than things you don't see in a top 5 pick. We actually saw quite a bit of this in Jack Hughes (though I wouldn't compare them too much, Hughes was too elite of a skater in comparison). Smith won't be able to get as many puck touches or space, but that means cutting down on some of the creativity he can afford himself right now, but even cutting this down, quite a bit of his points came off plays that would work on the next level, or that just need a bit of tweaking. You're working with more there than quite a few other players.
I’ll take the kid who tries and create things then has to cut and round up some of it at the next level than one who always play safe or doesn’t show as much creativity in juniors.

I watched a lot of Smith this year and while it’s true he’s not the best defensively or the stronger player on the boards, i think some are exaggerating. He back checks deep in his zone, finishing his checks, he’s pretty good at stealing pucks and can be pretty tenacious at times.

They all have things to work on, he’s not the only player in the top 5 who will need to work on the two-way part of the game but for some reason people make it seems like he’s the only one. I don’t think i’ve seen one people here saying Michkov constantly waits for the puck at the blue line lol.
 
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True.

But on the other end, that is realistically only true for Bedard and Michkov.

Nobody else is a surefirer priemium scoring forward.

Obviously, i won't also argue against taking Reinbacher above Fantilli or Carlsson.

But after them, we are in a more speculative spot to acquire a premium scoring forward and at this point, the bet on Reinbacher may be more tempting than the bet on Smith or Benson for example.

We have the opportunity to select a potential premium scoring at 5 but the odds are greatly diminished there and we should go BPA, not need.

Reinbacher has a case for BPA at 5 imo.
Specially if both Smith and Michkov aren't options.
I can understand the argument of going Smith instead as long as he's seen as a top line talent - which i think he is - albeit with more uncertainty than the top dogs.

After that, i either don't see that kind of talent or if they do it comes with alot more uncertainty (Wood)
 
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To me this would be the best cases scenario… I don’t think Wallinder will be available the other guy I could pick was Musty but I also don’t think he will be available. All these guys have skill but can also make it in the bottom 6 if they fail to make the top 6, they all have great size most are on the young side lot of euro so they can stay over sea or go CHL or AHL with out rushing development.
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Reinbacher at 5 makes a lot of sense. He would set our defense for the next 10 years. It would be an even better pick if Hughes could manage to acquire another high pick and draft one of Leonard or Benson.

Id do something like that : Barron and 37th OA to VAN for Myers and 11th OA (They need young D and Barron becomes redundant with Mailloux and Hutson probably in front of him for PP time).

Then move up to 8th OA by taking Mantha’s contract. Draft whoever is left between Benson and Leonard.

Slaf-Suzuki-Caufield
Farrell-Dach-Leonard
Roy-Dubois-Heineman
RHP-Beck-Evans

Guhle-Matheson
Hutson-Reinbacher
Xhekaj-Mailloux
Harris

Is an elite group imo
 
Reinbacher at 5 makes a lot of sense. He would set our defense for the next 10 years. It would be an even better pick if Hughes could manage to acquire another high pick and draft one of Leonard or Benson.

Id do something like that : Barron and 37th OA to VAN for Myers and 11th OA (They need young D and Barron becomes redundant with Mailloux and Hutson probably in front of him for PP time).

Then move up to 8th OA by taking Mantha’s contract. Draft whoever is left between Benson and Leonard.

Slaf-Suzuki-Caufield
Farrell-Dach-Leonard
Roy-Dubois-Heineman
RHP-Beck-Evans

Guhle-Matheson
Hutson-Reinbacher
Xhekaj-Mailloux
Harris

Is an elite group imo
Oh and also, Dubois would be acquired for something around the lines of Dvorak, Armia, Mesar and Kidney.

Then Id trade Anderson for the highest possible first we can get and try to make a package for a young goalie (Hart or Askarov).
 
Once again....points mean very little without context. Ciernik scored at a higher pace than Forsberg in the same league in his draft year as well. I have no doubt that Smith would not have scored much if he was in Dvorsky's position either.

It just doesn't make any sense whatsoever to try and make a competent judgement based on stats when top prospects historically don't score much in these leagues and even the ones that have they are in entirely different situations. Look at Huberdeau this year, he is the exact same player he was in Florida but he is with a new coach , system and linemates and it did not work. Blindly following stats is always a pointless exercise. Environment has played an enormous role in year to year fluctuations of players point totals in all leagues at all levels.

I respect your opinion but we may have to agree to disagree here as we have both communicated our positions pretty clearly and aren't likely to find any further common ground on this topic.

I think fluctuations are an important observation. Ideally you would have a distribution of outcomes that would reflect these factors, as well as issues of translation. But I don't think that makes the stats meaningless, it just means that there's variance and thus you have to be careful how you use them.

I think I'll end by saying what I think Dvorsky's stats mean about him. I think they mean that he might be a good offensive producer at the next level, but it's not guaranteed. It might sound silly, but if he had put up a season like Pastrnak's I would have him in the conversation for 3rd.
 
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To me this would be the best cases scenario… I don’t think Wallinder will be available the other guy I could pick was Musty but I also don’t think he will be available. All these guys have skill but can also make it in the bottom 6 if they fail to make the top 6, they all have great size most are on the young side lot of euro so they can stay over sea or go CHL or AHL with out rushing development.
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By the way this year pre-season camp will be like what 80 players?

21 players just from 22 and 23 draft - i dont remember if all the drafted players show at the pre season camp?
 
I've read that same literature, and I've seen him play between 5-7 games. I'm not going to pretend I've seen his entire season. However, the gap between current stats/skills and actual NHL performance has to be bridged by projecting his skills onto NHL play. This is what holds Smith back for me. The skill will still be there, but he'll have less time, less space, less puck share, better opponents, and more responsabilities. I'm skeptical about how well the way he produces now will translate. Is it 50%? 90%?.

Don't get it twisted though, he's still very high on my list (6-8) and chances are he'll be a very good player. I'll also say that he has the best vision in the draft, and possibly the best I've seen since J Hughes. I just don't think he'll be a 1C, nor a top-10 point producer in the league.
If his vision is as good as people say, and he isn't unduly benefitting from a pair of super capable linemates, I think he will be a point producer in the NHL. Top10? Hardly. Top30 possible. Keep in mind 8m dollar captain of the Habs Suzuki isn't even top60. We need a productive forward, we need many productive forwards.

Reinbacher won't be a top10 defenseman either, so I don't get why everybody is so insistant to be critical toward every prospect and super high and upbeat about Reinbacher specifically.
 
Take a look at our last draft, all strong skaters from pick 1 to pick 127. Pretty sure Habs have no interest in Wood at all, NHL is all speed and pace, Wood isnt that.
Still need a mix with people that can carry a heavier load. See comparisons to Tage Thompson and when you look at Tage he was compared to JVR pre draft, as was Jason Robertson.
 
For all those who are talking about the Habs needing to take only Michkov 24h/7

I’m curious to know, how many games have you watch of him in the past 2 years ?
 
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For all those who are talking about the Habs needing to take only Michkov 24h/7

I’m curious to know, how many games have you watch of him in the past 2 years ?

I mean he did play at the 2021 u18s where he scored 12 g in 7 games, and won both the goal scoring & the point scoring race, while a double underager.

He was also tournament MVP.

He also played 2 games at the 2022 WJC tournament in Edmonton before it was canceled. I'm so, so pissed at the organizers for f***ing up that tournament. We didn't know it then but that was the last chance to see him in a major event.

Russia attacked Ukraine that winter.

After that you'd have to watch YouTube highlights/games. KHL has all their games posted. There's also a few shift videos of him too.
 
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I mean he did play at the 2021 u18s where he scored 12 g in 7 games, and won both the goal scoring & the point scoring race, while a double underager.

He was also tournament MVP.

He also played 2 games at the 2022 WJC tournament in Edmonton before it was canceled. I'm so, so pissed at the organizers for f***ing up that tournament. We didn't know it then but that was the last chance to see him in a major event.

Russia attacked Ukraine that winter.

After that you'd have to watch YouTube highlights/games. KHL has all their games posted. There's also a few shift videos of him too.
I don't doubt YOU watch game ;)

My point was more that most posters that complain 24/7 that we need to take only Michkov where not even posting in the draft thread before the lottery and they never say what they like so much about Michkov except that his an elite talent
 
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For all those who are talking about the Habs needing to take only Michkov 24h/7

I’m curious to know, how many games have you watch of him in the past 2 years ?
I will admit like with Wright last year my assessment of Michkov is primarily based on games from 2 years ago lol
 
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My list at 5 is basically
1. Bedard
2. Fantilli
3. Michkov
4. Carlsson
5. Dvorsky/Smith
6. Smith/Dvorsky

Have 6 names just in case Michkov is ND which is looking less and less. Gun to my head I take Dvorsky over Smith but if Hughes knows Smith inside out and is 100% sold on the character and work ethic then I’d roll Smith because it’s razor close.
Jarmo already confirmed they will pick a center at 3 they been looking for one for years
 
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