GlassesJacketShirt
Registered User
1. Karlsson was never a particularly good defensive player, and he only cared about offense this year
2. Lots of empty netters against is my guess
HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2
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1. Karlsson was never a particularly good defensive player, and he only cared about offense this year
2. Lots of empty netters against is my guess
le_sean
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- Oct 21, 2006
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Leafs have gone that route since drafting Rielly in 2012 and they’ve won a total of 1 second round playoff games. There’s no foolproof way of building a team.
calder candidate
Registered User
Reinbacher biggest strength is that he doesn’t have many glaring weaknesses he is almost sure fire NHLer is floor is very high to me the weakness is that he isn’t a elite talent he doesn’t till the ice for you team but he will be able to eat a lot of minutes. If you are looking a his tool skating, size, shot, passing and the numbers he had it easy to project him to have a very high ceiling and I can see it, but to me the ceiling isn’t much higher than the floor.
He has size but isn’t overly physical, great shoot but he basically just shot as quickly as possible, quickly effective at passing but not a play maker quickly move the puck with out many mistake but isn’t creating much, good skater and rushing the puck but when he cross the offensive blue line it usually fizzle out…
I had him 44-46th at before the season started, he move up 16 to 21 and now he even might be 7-12 so it not like I want to trash him, but I would probably by higher on him if there weren’t anyone pushing to take him at 5, to me that is the biggest deception of Florida making the playoff and make the cup final is going from a lottery pick to maybe be in a spot (or in position to make a move) where you able to get a high profile player.
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BergevinBurner
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- Sep 27, 2019
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Nice response. I'm sorry that I trust the opinion of a pool of top NHL scouts over your assessment of Reinbacher.
WeThreeKings
Demidov is a HAB
Obviously we all think they're going to take Carlsson or Smith if they are there. We don't know about Michkov and I think everyone is gonna be surprised at how far Benson falls on draft day.
In fact, my prediction is take Leonard, Reinbacher and Dvorsky are all gone before Benson.
NekkiChiconey
Registered User
Once again flashiness =/= potential. McAvoy might be the best comparable for Reinbacher, and we'd all take him. Funny thing is, people think Reinbacher is a safe pick, but he's actually the homerun pick after Michkov. You're betting on him becoming a #1 D and that's exciting. Again, not my pick but if that's what HuGo believe he becomes, I can't be mad and I salute the audacity.
On a totally unrelated and insignificant note, man are some teams going to regret passing on Benson if he falls. I still believe he's exactly what we need.
On a totally unrelated and insignificant note, man are some teams going to regret passing on Benson if he falls. I still believe he's exactly what we need.
Gonna just respond here since it's basically the same discussion in two places.
He plays a smart and pretty aggressive game that leverages all his skating/physical strengths, and uses those tools to make effective transition plays and create offensively (and he's pretty aggressive physically in the D-zone which I think works with the overall package). Much like Guhle part of the upside argument is that the tools being so good everywhere means any improvement in a particular area is compounded by everything else already being there. Eg. if Reinbacher's shot improves in 2-3 years, he's already got the skating and size to capitalize on that.
Another reason would be as a response to the idea that he's a high floor low ceiling guy because I think that's basically just video game logic. The idea that player A is the flashy high upside low floor player but the big Dman is high floor lower ceiling which is just an arbitrary video-gamey framing, floor and ceiling are not inherently linked for every player in every situation. I want Reinbacher for his ceiling, the floor is just a nice bonus IMO.
I think he has a high probability because it's all just...there already. He's already playing top pair minutes in a really good pro league, he has all the tools, he makes smart plays in transition, he produces without relying on junior/tiktok hockey dangles and stuff, you don't really have to envision him drastically changing anything to succeed. That doesn't mean he has no chance of busting or whatever, he just has a really solid all-around profile IMO.
I don't really care to magnify Michkov's weaknesses because for me the only reason to pass on him would be political uncertainty (barring a really unexpected scenario where Michkov and Carlsson both drop to 5). In Smith's case the winger risk is a pretty significant value drop IMO because you'd need him to be an elite one to be more valuable than a #2D. I would still be really thrilled to have Smith and I won't be upset at all if he's the guy, I just value Reinbacher's overall profile more. I would also be extremely happy with Benson or Leonard too for that matter, Reinbacher is just my preference 21with an implied "if we have decided to pass on Michkov for contract etc etc reasons". Michkov is who I "want" but we have no way of knowing where that situation goes so I'm not just gonna say pick Michkov for a month and not look at anyone else.
There are a couple of reasons I've been talking about upside. The first is that I just genuinely do believe he's a player with high upside. Where critics are saying "he has no standout tool", my response would be that I think he's just very good at everything besides his hands which are probably about average.
He plays a smart and pretty aggressive game that leverages all his skating/physical strengths, and uses those tools to make effective transition plays and create offensively (and he's pretty aggressive physically in the D-zone which I think works with the overall package). Much like Guhle part of the upside argument is that the tools being so good everywhere means any improvement in a particular area is compounded by everything else already being there. Eg. if Reinbacher's shot improves in 2-3 years, he's already got the skating and size to capitalize on that.
Another reason would be as a response to the idea that he's a high floor low ceiling guy because I think that's basically just video game logic. The idea that player A is the flashy high upside low floor player but the big Dman is high floor lower ceiling which is just an arbitrary video-gamey framing, floor and ceiling are not inherently linked for every player in every situation. I want Reinbacher for his ceiling, the floor is just a nice bonus IMO.
Not to be a stickler for these kinds of details b/c it might have just been a typo, but if you've been under the impression he played in the Austrian league maybe that explains some of this. He's Austrian but he's playing in the Swiss league, which is generally considered the 3rd best league in Europe and probably a touch above the Finnish league in quality (Finland is obviously the better hockey nation, but the Swiss league allows more import players and is more generous with giving "Swiss player" status to foreign nationals who played like U18 or U16 hockey in Switzerland). He just had the 2nd highest scoring draft year in the Swiss league ever (Matthews was 1st), and in his draft year Josi had 8P in the same league while Reinbacher had 22. He had a pretty damn impressive year.
I think he has a high probability because it's all just...there already. He's already playing top pair minutes in a really good pro league, he has all the tools, he makes smart plays in transition, he produces without relying on junior/tiktok hockey dangles and stuff, you don't really have to envision him drastically changing anything to succeed. That doesn't mean he has no chance of busting or whatever, he just has a really solid all-around profile IMO.
Well...I would choose Jeff Petry 2.0 over any forward likely to be available to us other than Michkov. Petry is more or less the calibre of player I'm looking at with Reinbacher, I'm not banking on him having a meteoric rise to top 10 D in the league (although I don't think that's out of the question), but in generic terms I would rather have Petry or a generic #2D than a first line but non-elite forward. Petry or Ekholm > Filip Forsberg for instance. The upside talk is again I think mostly because there seems to be this idea that Petry is the absolute summit for him so the 75th percentile outcome is he's Joel Edmundson or something, but I don't think that's accurate.
I dunno, I don't really worry too much about the lists because there's enough variance and some of the more recent ones have had him in the 8-10 range and there's always going to be a lot of difference of opinions in that range. There's also still another McKenzie list coming, so we'll see what happens.
I don't really care to magnify Michkov's weaknesses because for me the only reason to pass on him would be political uncertainty (barring a really unexpected scenario where Michkov and Carlsson both drop to 5). In Smith's case the winger risk is a pretty significant value drop IMO because you'd need him to be an elite one to be more valuable than a #2D. I would still be really thrilled to have Smith and I won't be upset at all if he's the guy, I just value Reinbacher's overall profile more. I would also be extremely happy with Benson or Leonard too for that matter, Reinbacher is just my preference 21with an implied "if we have decided to pass on Michkov for contract etc etc reasons". Michkov is who I "want" but we have no way of knowing where that situation goes so I'm not just gonna say pick Michkov for a month and not look at anyone else.
Hacketts
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Mrb1p
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I think this is the summary of your post so I’ll respond to this than make a line by line reply. In general I think it’s clear you’ve put forth your argument deliberately and with care and there’s nothing there with which I can disagree except for the quoted bit
Maybe in effect a Petry or Ekholm can be more valuable to winning games than a Forsberg but on the market and in general you’re not going to get a Forsberg on the market but you’re more easily capable of finding or picking up a Petry or Ekholm.
High-end scoring is more valuable than high-end defending and high-end scorers are therefore more difficult to acquire. We don’t sacrifice entire years to draft Matthias Ekholms, Jeff Petrys, and Mike Mathesons. This is the summary of my thinking on the topic.
It’s not that Reinbacher or Dvorsky aren’t good prospects but I think at 5OA and after a miserable tank year and after last year’s tank outcome we need to swing for the big point producing forward here. How else can you acquire a PPG winger?
I guess now we're talking more about Forsberg than the draft prospects, but I picked him as an example because he's kinda just a guy on the first line and not a real driver, has only broken 40G once, he's a step below a guy like prime Pacioretty IMO and I'd choose a 2D over that. Either way I get what you're saying and there's no real need to get in the weeds on Forsberg as it was just an example to mean "generic #2D vs generic 1st line but non-elite winger"
Largely agree but I do think Petry/Ekholm (with a chance for more) is a perfectly outcome at 5. I want a high-end scorer but if there's not one available and we pick a future #2D that's fine. We can still trade for wingers too, and will be picking between specific names and not like, "archetypes". IMO Michkov is the only specific name likely to be available that I'd call a sure thing as a true elite scorer.
Smith or Benson absolutely have that ceiling too, but if we're looking at 90th percentile outcomes then we have to start considering what Reinbacher's 90th percentile outcome is too and that's also a pretty special player.
Also agree with this premise, I mostly just think that Michkov is the only guy that actually fits that framing and whether or not he's going to be an option is really up in the air so we'll see what happens.
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- Jan 18, 2022
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I questioned the 2022 scouts because I didn’t believe the guy who struggled in Liiga would be as flawless as their reports had described him.
I don’t appeal to their authority but I question why this discussion forum doesn’t have any critical words to have about the prospect. It’s a bit of group think and learned underachiever mentality, I find.
The Habs haven’t had a highly productive forward in a long time and we’ve gotten used to seeing our top scorer fall short of PPG and our second top scorer fall considerably short of our top scorer. I think this is a bit of that. We have fans just assuming that we need to be a defence first, built from the net out, solid defensively sorta team. People have cited Nashville’s Big3 for instance.
I hope Hughes has another vision, personally.
Surely Smith has to be in contention too — especially given his connection to Hughes. His numbers almost make up for the fact his name is Will Smith.
- Jan 18, 2022
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90th percentile outcome for Smith is a 70pt winger right? That’s pretty damn valuable no? More valuable than a 2/3D?
NekkiChiconey
Registered User
Love Caufield, but Benson's way better apart from shooting. Benson will be a top-10 WAR player in the league.
Good thing is, we can have both.
Mrb1p
PRICERSTOPDAPUCK
Of course he will be. Im just saying hes gonna be a top 5 redraft and be drafted ourside the top 5 because sIZe
People here wouldn't be advocating for Reinbacher at 5 if they thought his 90th percentile is a #3 D
- Jan 18, 2022
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Simply put, it’s hard to believe Reinbacher is both a flawless player AND has exceptional strengths across a variety of a variety of valuable hockey qualities.
His stats are impressive. I just want a more consistent evaluation criteria that matches what so many other scouts can see. My gut says his purported strengths are not as strong as this message board insists.
His stats are impressive. I just want a more consistent evaluation criteria that matches what so many other scouts can see. My gut says his purported strengths are not as strong as this message board insists.
Kent Nilsson
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If his 90th percentile outcome is 2D he wouldn’t be outside the top10 of so many individual draft rankings and consolidated draft rankings both.
Seb
All we are is Dustin Byfuglien
- Jul 15, 2006
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Let's just ignore the fact he's already playing top line in a men's league just because it doesn't fit your gut feelings.
And? As it was pointed out, there's always a lag in lists, specially when it comes to euros in pro leagues with less exposure. Seider was 21st in McKenzie's mid-season rankings, 16th in his final list, DET took him at 6. Heiskanen was still outside the top 10 in April.
Off the top of my head idk I'd probably call 90th percentile outcome for Smith something like an 80-85pt kind of winger, and 90th for Reinbacher a #1D on the lower end (like a top 25ish defenceman)?
JuJu Mobb
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- Dec 9, 2009
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Drafting the BPA between a forward and a defenseman is not that easy.
You need to determine the type of impact each player can have on your team. It's not just about points.
You need to determine the type of impact each player can have on your team. It's not just about points.
Skip Bayless
The Skip Bayless Show
- Aug 28, 2014
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Yup, a lot of the times D men have much more impact on offense than their offensive stats dictate.
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