HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Why are people so obsessed with points? Out of top50 scoring leader there are 3 in Stanley Cup finals- Tkachuk, Barkov, Verheaghe. Nobody from Vegas.
Look for Byron Bader on Twitter. He is running such model.
Btw, Dvorsky does not have anemic offense. Look for his whole career, not just on line on eliteprospects profile.

so many things wrong with this very weak argumentation.

1- There are 32 teams, which means on average a team will have 1.56 top 50 players per team if all things were equal. Guess how much that makes for 2 teams?? Yes, almost exactly 3. For Top100 give 3.12 players per team matchups, 6.24 per matchups.

2- A one season sample doesn't determine a rule. Just look at last year, genius, there were 6 x top50 players in the finals based on solely points. Double this year.

3- You used simply points, whereas using PPG with a minimum games played would show a different picture as Jack Eichel finished 41st in PPG among players who played 32+ games this year. If we look at top50 PPG (+32 gm min) last year, there were 8 x top 50 players in the finals last year.

4- When we look at the top 100 players and PPG (32gm min), there are 8 players in the finals, which is a bit lower than 2 players over league average. Nick Suzuki is 88th, just as a reference. Out of those 8 players, 7 have a higher PPG than Suzuki. Stephenson is the oddman out, tied with Suzuki at 0.80 ppg. Last year, there were 10 x top100 players in the finals. All of them had a better PPG than Suzuki this year.

 

[ReHabs]

Everyone here is super high on Reinbacher and talks about him like his floor is top-pairing d-man. I hope to see some revised, more appropriate and tempered evaluations of the player. I don't see such only-upside talk about any other prospect. People have picked and prodded and over-criticized every player bar Bedard and Reinbacher. Very strange phenomenon.


What's his floor? What's his mid-point? Who are his comparables and what are their weaknesses? Reinbacher isn't a guaranteed success, so don't approach the topic taking for granted that he will be (1) an NHLer and (2) a successful NHLer and (3) a top-pairing #1 dman. If he was considered to be safe for all three conditions he would be ranked much, much higher and more consistently by the professionals who write about prospects.

 

[le_sean]

"Cost controlled" is irrelevant. If Reinbacher is good he will be 7m+ not long after his ELC expires.

We need a top forward, I'm not sure why everyone is deluding themselves into thinking otherwise.

If cost controlled is irrelevant, we should just draft 3rd liners and sign high profile free agents.

 

[ReHabs]

Why are people so obsessed with points?

Because the Habs haven't had anything resembling a reliably good offense in over a decade and a half and that itself was for a brief period (two years).

 

[Jack Skellington]

If we had the greatest shooter of all time we wouldn’t need one.

Well we have a 22 year old who has just under 50 goals in his last 82 games

 

[ReHabs]

If cost controlled is irrelevant, we should just draft 3rd liners and sign high profile free agents.

Too few impact players hit free agency and most skill players peak before they're eligible for free agency. Gotta draft them or trade for them or scoop them up as RFAs somehow.

Cost control remains an irrelevant argument.

 

[Jack Skellington]

If a 6'2 forward with great skating had the same DY production in Liiga than Reinbacher in NL, people would cream their pants over such a player. NL is very close in quality than Liiga if not higher, and DR is a defenseman. It's the best paying pro league in Europe after the KHL iirc. A lot of good international pro players go play there.

I know Im gonna get some laughs with that name but take David Desharnais for example. Sure he was very limited but he still was a NHL player with ~half a ppg for a bunch of years, which is a wet dream for the average NL player. Well, he didn't set the NL on fire at all. He did fine. Helps adjusting the scope with which you examine Reinbachers numbers, it becomes pretty impressive for an 18yo defenseman. It's never a sure thing, but what kind of production would people then expect for them to be satisfied and confident? .75ppg with double-digit goals? Come on.

I think the problem stems from people being totally unfamiliar with the NL in general. Big draft season players coming out of that league are so rare it becomes hard to draw comparisons, which is the main way alot of people judge prospects.

 

[le_sean]

Too few impact players hit free agency and most skill players peak before they're eligible for free agency. Gotta draft them or trade for them or scoop them up as RFAs somehow.

Cost control remains an irrelevant argument.

It’s not an irrelevant argument against the person saying Reinbacher-type players are available in free agency. They are not that available and they cost Montreal even more than they cost other teams. So cost control is very relevant, especially for the Habs who are always going to spend to the cap. To say otherwise is completely false.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Everyone here is super high on Reinbacher and talks about him like his floor is top-pairing d-man. I hope to see some revised, more appropriate and tempered evaluations of the player. I don't see such only-upside talk about any other prospect. People have picked and prodded and over-criticized every player bar Bedard and Reinbacher. Very strange phenomenon.


What's his floor? What's his mid-point? Who are his comparables and what are their weaknesses? Reinbacher isn't a guaranteed success, so don't approach the topic taking for granted that he will be (1) an NHLer and (2) a successful NHLer and (3) a top-pairing #1 dman. If he was considered to be safe for all three conditions he would be ranked much, much higher and more consistently by the professionals who write about prospects.

Lazy reasoning. For all you know some pros do have him that high.

 

[Jack Skellington]

Because the Habs haven't had anything resembling a reliably good offense in over a decade and a half and that itself was for a brief period (two years).

I could be wrong but as far as I know only one person here has said we should entertain taking Reinbacher over someone like Michkov, which I would disagree with massively.

Just as a hypothetical, say you happen to think that there are no good bets at a first line scoring forward outside of the top 4 forwards, and say you happen to think Reinbacher has potential to be a minute eating 50-60 pt #1 dman. Would you still think they should just throw their dart at whoever the supposed best forward is because our team has been so bad offensively? Now I understand you obviously disagree with both of those interpretations of the prospects so I'm sure it's an easy decision for you to take Smith or Benson or whoever.

I understand that line of thinking seeing as we haven't had a point per game player in a billion years but I personally fall more in line with the prior assesment so I'm far more inclined to lean towards Reinbacher.

 

[Anardil]

Cups are useless if the experience is not religious in nature.

Who cares about those cups in the late-1960s? 4 cups in 5 years. Nobody cares. Even Jean Béliveau said people don't talk to him about those cups as much as the 1950's dynasty.

Why?

Because it lacked the deeper religious vibe, the kind that the 1950's and 1970's dynasties provided. Because of the archetypal lineups, and Rocket Richard / Guy Lafleur electrifying presence.

We all know Béliveau and Harvey probably tilted the ice in our favor more than #9 and #10, in a purely calculating way. But MR and GL brought the fairy tale magic.

Kovalev did this to some extent in 2008 imo. He was really magic that year, in a way that nobody since Lafleur was.

Yes, I claim it: Victory isn't the ultimate goal. Religiosity and magic are.

Sorry to say it, but you will need to find a new team, because the Dynasties are never coming back. The best we can hope for now is a Chicago/L.A./Tampa level mini dynasty.

There are just too many teams and too many negative factors against Montreal in today's NHL to ever hope for Les Glorieux to return.

 

[MasterMatt25]

Any chance we can swap with Arizona and move down one spot to take Reinbacher if thats who we really want?

 

[Draft]

If we want a flashy, high-octane, complementary playmaking winger capable of putting up huge point totals... I take a swing at Cristall later in the 1st before I use 5OA on Smith. These two have lots of the same deficiencies, not sure why Smith gets a by on so many of them while Cristall drops down the rankings.

 

[JoelWarlord]

It's a poor argument IMO. For one, the idea that first-pairing defencemen can just be readily acquired is absurd. For some examples off the top of my head Mark Stone, Jack Eichel, Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk, and Artemi Panarin have all moved via trade and free agency in recent years, so the premise that you can't possibly get high-end talent other than in the draft is pretty flawed. The "affordably" qualifier for free agency is meaningless, as if eg. Hamilton and Pietrangelo were somehow "affordable" in a way Panarin or Gaudreau were not. Jason Robertson and Nikita Kucherov were 2nd round picks too!

With a choice between their ceilings, everyone would pick a potential franchise forward over a non Makar/Hedman level top pair D. I get it. The argument falls apart though because very few people (at least on here, maybe @HabZ_Fan_XXX_69_420 on twitter is different) want to "pass" on Michkov to pick Reinbacher. We are discussing other players in the event that the FO decides they don't want to take him, or if the Blue Jackets/Sharks take him ahead of us, which are all real possibilities. And yes I want Michkov too, but there is a chance that the Habs (and the Blue Jackets, Sharks, Coyotes, Flyers, etc. etc.) decide they don't want to deal with the risk. I personally think it's worth the risk, but I'm not the guy in the big chair and I don't have all the info, so I think it's silly to just spend the next month saying PICK MICHKOV HE'S BPA instead of discussing other players.

Everyone knows Michkov is the most talented player that would plausibly be available, but hammering away at that point is kinda meaningless because everybody knows that. If he drops it will be for political reasons, not because some scout got a twinkle in his eye and thinks Reinbacher is a hidden gem who will become a top 5 defenceman of all-time and Michkov will bust.

 

[ReHabs]

It’s not an irrelevant argument against the person saying Reinbacher-type players are available in free agency. They are not that available and they cost Montreal even more than they cost other teams. So cost control is very relevant, especially for the Habs who are always going to spend to the cap. To say otherwise is completely false.

If your claim is that Signing FAs is difficult for Montreal, then it also applies to forwards.

Cost control doesn't exist, it's an irrelevant argument. Go ask Cole Caufield, who has not played a single full NHL season yet, if he's going to be cost controlled when we need him to be.

Lazy reasoning. For all you know some pros do have him that high.

From what I know, and it ain't much, Reinbacher is not considered a top5 pick in this draft by the preponderance of scouts and analysts and draft commentators. A few people are insistant on mentioning him out of what I assume to be a natural contrarianism.

I could be wrong but as far as I know only one person here has said we should entertain taking Reinbacher over someone like Michkov, which I would disagree with massively.

Just as a hypothetical, say you happen to think that there are no good bets at a first line scoring forward outside of the top 4 forwards, and say you happen to think Reinbacher has potential to be a minute eating 50-60 pt #1 dman. Would you still think they should just throw their dart at whoever the supposed best forward is because our team has been so bad offensively? Now I understand you obviously disagree with both of those interpretations of the prospects so I'm sure it's an easy decision for you to take Smith or Benson or whoever.

I understand that line of thinking seeing as we haven't had a point per game player in a billion years but I personally fall more in line with the prior assesment so I'm far more inclined to lean towards Reinbacher.

Over Michkov, obviously not. Smith however will likely be there at 5 (and if not him, then Carlsson). Assuming both Smith/Carlsson and Reinbacher both hit to near their upsides, Smith/Carlsson will be a very good and productive NHL forward like we need and have not been able to get. There's therefore no point to entertain the Reinbacher topic some people keep trying to shoe-horn into the discussion. Entertaining digression but that's all it is. This is a forward-heavy top-end draft and there's no point to go galaxy brain and pick a dman.

Now let's assume he doesn't hit his upside. Was the homerun swing worth it? For Michkov, obviously yes. For Carlsson, obviously yes. For Smith, I'd say yes -- productive forwards are just so hard to come by even if they're badly flawed. For Reinbacher, no. Middle-pairing (or worse) d-men are plentiful.

That's my thinking.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Just for fun, a lot of people on here should go on Capfriendly dot com and try to figure out how we could acquire a first pair RD.

Thing is, Michkov is much more likely to be a top 10-20 point producer in the league than Reinbacher is to become a 1st pair D, let alone an elite 1st pair D. Also, there are 60 or so first pair Ds to go around, it's a wide definition and doesn't necessarily equate the type of contribution and role Michkov will have.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

Wood seems like one of those guys who will make lot of people wonder how he dropped that far in a few years

Yes. People are so sleeping on him it's crazy!

 

[Draft]

Yes. People are so sleeping on him it's crazy!

... Have you watched him try to skate?

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

Everyone here is super high on Reinbacher and talks about him like his floor is top-pairing d-man. I hope to see some revised, more appropriate and tempered evaluations of the player. I don't see such only-upside talk about any other prospect. People have picked and prodded and over-criticized every player bar Bedard and Reinbacher. Very strange phenomenon.


What's his floor? What's his mid-point? Who are his comparables and what are their weaknesses? Reinbacher isn't a guaranteed success, so don't approach the topic taking for granted that he will be (1) an NHLer and (2) a successful NHLer and (3) a top-pairing #1 dman. If he was considered to be safe for all three conditions he would be ranked much, much higher and more consistently by the professionals who write about prospects.

I'm not a huge fan of Reinbacher. I prefer ASP. I think the main thing about Reinbacher to criticize is a lot of the hype around him is that he will keep developing and ironing out his game, which is possible. But it's also possible that despite a nice toolbox it never all adds up. There are some examples of those kind of fast skating defensemen drafted high who never took the next level and ended up mediocre.

I think Reinbacher probably is the first dman picked because someone will think he's an unpolished gem. And maybe he is. But I think picking forwards early makes more sense this year.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

... Have you watched him try to skate?

Yes many times. I have no worry with it. Certainly being 6'4 with amazing hockey IQ and hands help a lot. See stanley cup finalist Mark Stone.

 

[KevSkillz4]

At this point, more day advance, more I see Carlsson, Smith, Michkov, Leonard or Benson.

If at 5, Habs don't draft one of them, I will be really disappointed about that management.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

If a 6'2 forward with great skating had the same DY production in Liiga than Reinbacher in NL, people would cream their pants over such a player. NL is very close in quality than Liiga if not higher, and DR is a defenseman. It's the best paying pro league in Europe after the KHL iirc. A lot of good international pro players go play there.

I know Im gonna get some laughs with that name but take David Desharnais for example. Sure he was very limited but he still was a NHL player with ~half a ppg for a bunch of years, which is a wet dream for the average NL player. Well, he didn't set the NL on fire at all. He did fine. Helps adjusting the scope with which you examine Reinbachers numbers, it becomes pretty impressive for an 18yo defenseman. It's never a sure thing, but what kind of production would people then expect for them to be satisfied and confident? .75ppg with double-digit goals? Come on.

I think the problem stems from people being totally unfamiliar with the NL in general. Big draft season players coming out of that league are so rare it becomes hard to draw comparisons, which is the main way alot of people judge prospects.

Both really good points. It's true Reinbacher had great production in the Swiss League.

Some interesting facts about Austrians in the NHL draft.

There have been 17 Austrians total drafted in the NHL draft. 3 of those 17 have been drafted by the Montreal Canadiens, which is a fairly high percentage, including Vincenz Rohrer from last year.

The highest drafted Austrian player was Vanek at #5.

There were two Austrians drafted last year, and 3 more drafted in 2020.

4 of the 17 Austrians drafted were first rounders, including 3 drafted in the top 10.

David Reinbacher should become the 18th Austrian drafted.

 

[SwiftyHab]

. And yes I want Michkov too, but there is a chance that the Habs (and the Blue Jackets, Sharks, Coyotes, Flyers, etc. etc.) decide they don't want to deal with the risk. I personally think it's worth the risk, but I'm not the guy in the big chair and I don't have all the info, so I think it's silly to just spend the next month saying PICK MICHKOV HE'S BPA instead of discussing other players.

Sir, I offer you the chair

 

[Draft]

Yes many times. I have no worry with it. Certainly being 6'4 with amazing hockey IQ and hands help a lot. See stanley cup finalist Mark Stone.

It only takes seeing it once . You should definitely have a worry about it, he's got a ways to go before he even hits Stone's level.

However, the fact that he's able to do what he's done at 17 with significant skating limitations in the NCAA is exceptional. If you feel your development team can work on it, he's absolutely in that 5-9 range.

 

[SwiftyHab]

Moronic take. Go get me one then if they're so cheap.

You’re not my dad!