Prospect Info: 2023 NHL Draft - Part 2 (Who Do You Want To Draft At #2)

[Ducks in a row]

It's human nature if you are petty, emotionally immature and vindictive. Listen, I've always liked reading your takes and opinions over the years and I know from context that you're dealing with some degree of depression and on that front I've been there big time and I empathize.

But being a hockey fan has its ups and downs and you just gotta tough it out sometimes. Some like you want to avoid the worst result possible for the way the season ends, others view it as fleeting and see there's some recompense for all the suffering this year with a high draft pick and leverage that more towards hope than vindictive desire to see others suffer because they don't cheer the way you cheer.

Even if only a small part of you is hoping that the 2023 first round pick is a failure to spite the fans you disapprove of, that's a really petty and vindictive way to look at things.

Again, how would you react if my response was, "well if that's how you feel, some small part of me hopes the team finishes last 3 years in a row so you can really feel bad." It's essentially the same logic and intent, but I bet you'd feel like it was a pretty petty and shitty thing to say.

Everyone has a dark side. Everyone feels things at times they wish they didn't feel it sometimes just happens no matter how mature they are. Feelings can't be totally controlled. Being mature is controlling your actions despite your feelings.

I wish I could feel some level of happiness from this past season but I don't. I wish I didn't feel like wanting others who cheered for the Ducks to finish dead last (which made me unhappy) to feel unhappy after getting what they wish for.

Hockey is the only sport I give a damn about anymore and the Ducks had finished dead last for the first time ever while also allowing the most shots in a single season in NHL history. That I will never forget and such a horrible season has come at one of the worst possible times for me. These last few years have brought me so much sadness and most of it wont be changing anytime soon. Not a lot nowadays seems to makes me happy.

I know there are some people that probably don't like seeing what I am saying and its not my intention to upset anyone I am just honestly venting and its helping a little.

 

[HanSolo]

Everyone has a dark side. Everyone feels things at times they wish they didn't feel it sometimes just happens no matter how mature they are. Feelings can't be totally controlled. Being mature is controlling your actions despite your feelings.

I wish I could feel some level of happiness from this past season but I don't. I wish I didn't feel like wanting others who cheered for the Ducks to finish dead last (which made me unhappy) to feel unhappy after getting what they wish for.

Hockey is the only sport I give a damn about anymore and the Ducks had finished dead last for the first time ever while also allowing the most shots in a single season in NHL history. That I will never forget and such a horrible season has come at one of the worst possible times for me. These last few years have brought me so much sadness and most of it wont be changing anytime soon. Not a lot nowadays seems to makes me happy.

I know there are some people that probably don't like seeing what I am saying and its not my intention to upset anyone I am just honestly venting and its helping a little.

Fair enough. And for what it's worth, I might have said it before, but I hope you find some calm and happiness soon. Don't be afraid to reach out to loved ones. I didn't and it made getting through my struggle a lot harder.

 

[KyleJRM]

Go look at how often teams without multiple top 3 picks on the roster win the Cup.

OK, I will.

Vegas, St. Louis, Washington. That's 3 out of the last 6. Two of which had zero top-3 picks that they drafted themselves.

 

[HanSolo]

OK, I will.

Vegas, St. Louis, Washington. That's 3 out of the last 6. Two of which had zero top-3 picks that they drafted themselves.

Washington won without Ovechkin?

 

[KyleJRM]

Washington won without Ovechkin?

I'm not sure if you think Washington didn't draft Ovechkin or he's multiple people?

 

[Gliff]

OK, I will.

Vegas, St. Louis, Washington. That's 3 out of the last 6. Two of which had zero top-3 picks that they drafted themselves.

Vegas win without Eichel?

Edit:
Or why did you stop at 6 years I wonder? Maybe because the next 3 all had multiple top 3 picks.

Who cares if they drafted them? It’s about getting elite players. Rarely do they leave their original team but they still do.

 

[HanSolo]

I'm not sure if you think Washington didn't draft Ovechkin or he's multiple people?

I glossed over the "two of which" part.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

In Anaheims only cup champ Pronger and Niedermayer were former #2 & #3 overall picks. They weren't drafted by the Ducks but traded for Pronger and signed Niedermayer as UFA.

 

[70sSanO]

If you are looking SC winning teams without multiple top 3 players that the team drafted, look no further than your own backyard…

…Getzlaf at 19 was our highest Duck drafted player on our 2007 roster.

John

 

[Hockey Duckie]

What kind of top-6 player do the Ducks need right now? Whoever the Ducks choose will reveal exactly what type of team Verbeek wants. And like many of you have pointed out, PVB claims he wants grit and toughness but can he resist the pure offensive talent that Michkov promises?

Last year's draft, Verbeek chose shutdown C Gaucher over the offense in RW Snuggerud and C Kulich. During the season, Verbeek picked up big Leason and gritty Megna, but didn't take a flyer on the offensive winger Tolvanen. At the end of the season, Verbeek went after more grit in UDFA's RW Wiebe and RW Caulfied, but let go of 2021 5th round draft pick, scoring LW Tschigerl.

I don't think it's as difficult a decision as people are speculating, I think people just want something to speculate on.

If it wasn't a difficult decision, then why did Verbeek travel to the WC's to view both Fantilli and Carlsson? GM's and scouts usually have their draft mostly set before the WC because most prospects don't participate. One reason to watch this WC would be to see if Carlsson can actually play center since he only played LW for the past two seasons.

I think it's good to speculate. Read on...

Well you never really know where your GM and head scout's head is at. I mean who was confident Anaheim was taking Lindholm in 2012 or McTavish in 2021?

I was confident Anaheim would take McTavish in 2021.

 

[HanSolo]

I think the quibbling about Gliff's post is pointless. No having a top 3 pick isn't necessary to win the cup. But it certainly doesn't hurt either.

I mean obviously you have situations like Toronto and Edmonton but I don't think they're failing to go the distance because of McDavid, Draisaitl and Matthews.

I think the bigger point is you need elite talent. I'd argue you also need good coaching, good depth, dependable goaltending and luck too but that's neither here nor there.

The point is that yes, you can find elite talent up and down the first round and even beyond that. But the higher you draft, the more likely you are to find it. And even if elite talent isn't leveraged to cup wins, it can certainly go a long way to at least be competitive. Which would be much preferred to where the Ducks are right now.

 

[DuckDuckGetz]

Last year's draft, Verbeek chose shutdown C Gaucher over the offense in RW Snuggerud and C Kulich. During the season, Verbeek picked up big Leason and gritty Megna, but didn't take a flyer on the offensive winger Tolvanen. At the end of the season, Verbeek went after more grit in UDFA's RW Wiebe and RW Caulfied, but let go of 2021 5th round draft pick, scoring LW Tschigerl.



If it wasn't a difficult decision, then why did Verbeek travel to the WC's to view both Fantilli and Carlsson? GM's and scouts usually have their draft mostly set before the WC because most prospects don't participate. One reason to watch this WC would be to see if Carlsson can actually play center since he only played LW for the past two seasons.

I think it's good to speculate. Read on...



I was confident Anaheim would take McTavish in 2021.

Considering your options does not mean that you have a tough decision to make. You can look at every item on a menu even if you knew what you wanted to order before you even walked into the restaurant.

And for the record, I think Pat could pick either of these players. But the discourse around the decision is just chatter for the sake of chatter.

 

[70sSanO]

My biggest fear is that PV is going to make the decision based on this thread.

John

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

My biggest fear is that PV is going to make the decision based on this thread.

John

I’m even more worried he may try to pry Eichel out of Vegas after reading this thread.

 

[KyleJRM]

Vegas win without Eichel?

Edit:
Or why did you stop at 6 years I wonder? Maybe because the next 3 all had multiple top 3 picks.

Who cares if they drafted them? It’s about getting elite players. Rarely do they leave their original team but they still do.

You said multiple. Eichel is singular.


Exactly, though, it's about getting elite players. Tanking and drafting high is one way. It's a good way. It's definitely not the only way. But as more and more teams do it, it gets less reliable.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Tanking has always been unreliable. It takes a good 7-10 years to pay off, and depends on hitting on multiple rounds worth of pick, a properly put together farm team, and luck with injuries.

Winning without tanking requires shrewd asset management, a healthy slice of luck hitting players that outperform their draft positions, and players who aren’t complete mercenaries. Both work, but both also fail more times than not.

 

[HanSolo]

Tanking has always been unreliable. It takes a good 7-10 years to pay off, and depends on hitting on multiple rounds worth of pick, a properly put together farm team, and luck with injuries.

Winning without tanking requires shrewd asset management, a healthy slice of luck hitting players that outperform their draft positions, and players who aren’t complete mercenaries. Both work, but both also fail more times than not.

Well. I think it takes a healthy balance of both. You have abberations like Vegas who took a ton of risks and had them pay off really quicklybut even with them, with them as my other team I'm confident in saying the biggest single reason they won is Bruce Cassidy.

I ended up fully rambling about historical payoffs for teams that built out of the top end of the draft and those that didn't so I spoiler tagged to cut it down but it's there if anyone cares to read.

Spoiler

Teams like Chicago, Pittsburgh, Tampa, Washington, Colorado (though their rebuild was pretty weird) even LA without any first overall picks were basement dwellers before they built around their elite draft talent. But it still took actually building a team and making the right moves. Teams like Toronto and Edmonton are back to regularly being competitive after building around their high picks but they're lacking the right pieces and arguably the right coaching. But both can get to the peak with the right formula. Buffalo is not far off from being properly competitive again after years upon years of abject failure. New Jersey is already seeing payoff for their run of building out of the draft after not doing it for too long, though they have a fair bit more work to do with their roster.

Honestly if you look at "tanking" teams or more accurately, teams that gradually build out of top end of the draft, the only true running failures these days are Arizona, Columbus, and I guess Montreal depending on how much you view their cup run as a one off fluke. And I guess Ottawa but their problems stemmed more from a poor environment for success and Melnyk penny pinching until their best players were traded just to save money. Most "build out of draft" teams have leveraged their draft successes to at least being somewhat competitive. So I guess it depends on what your metric for failure is

If you look at Anaheim in 2007, that was something of a long play starting with Murray and being capped off by Burke going win now over the span of 2 years which was helped by lucking into getting two legends in Nieds and Pronger. But it didn't hurt that Getz and Perry were draft successes. St. Louis was another gradual build that wasn't wholly dependent on building out of the draft and that really ended up being a case of a team that caught the right flow at the right time. One they haven't been able to replicate since. The last examples of teams who notably really didn't build out of the top end of the draft to enjoy sustained success was Detroit, New Jersey, San Jose, and yeah, Anaheim. If you're looking at teams that continually built around a strong core that wasn't dependent on lottery picks to form the foundation. And I only include San Jose off their long run of making the playoffs.

But this all circles back to the merits of hoping for a high pick when a season is lost versus the merits of saying f*** that and hoping the team plays for pride. A team that does that can also end up hamstringing themselves. Look at Calgary: they've always played for pride and have remained a bubble team at best for over two decades. In that time their highest draft picks were 6th overall (Tkachuk), 4th overall (Bennett) and 6th overall (Monahan). Good players, but none of them really elite. Johnny Gaudreau in the fourth round was a stroke of luck but he wanted out, then they traded Tkachuk who seemed to want out and now half the team wants out. So I'll admit they had a core of at least a couple elite players but management failed to build a winner around them and now they've imploded and they're set to remain a middling team at best. Vancouver is another example of this, Atlanta/Winnipeg, Nashville, NYI, Minnesota. All these teams had limited pulls of elite draft talent and kept playing for pride, trying to build winners, thinking their core was good enough to go all the way, not having the right coaches, etc.

Anaheim, with this second overall pick, has the opportunity to have a great young core to get going with with some really high end talent on defense, some strong and already developing forward talent, a strong young goalie, and now the opportunity to grab a franchise level forward. But the thing is, the draft doesn't build a team on its own. Cronin still needs to be the right guy to guide this young group to be a dominant force. Verbeek has to acquire the right guys to build around the young talent with guys who play the right way in the modern nhl and have the mentality and compete to overcome other good teams. But, getting a franchise quality player for free and having him pan out can only help. And assuming every other element of the formula pans out well, that kind of elite talent can be the difference between a conference finalist at best and a cup winner.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

I personally lean Fantilli, but would be lying if I said much of that is not due to him being the Consensus and the fact that I am not a professional scout, so I can’t help but defer to the consensus. That being said, in the half dozen Michigan games and all WJC and WC games I watched of Fantilli, I saw many of the things Brad Allen (of the respected NHL Draft Black Book) talks about.

Again i think there is alot of overthinking taking place, as an 18 year old in his draft year he was the best player in college hockey playing against older players, he hasn't even grown into his body yet. this guy has a chance to be a game changing mean physical power center which are almost impossible to ever get, so if you pass on him you better be right

 

[KaseMeOutside]

Thanks for pulling up that video it was fascinating to see those three try to sort things out.

Brad is the first person to say firmly that Fantili be a winger instead of center. Does that actually mean anything? Centers get shifted to wing all the time. He says conditioning is good? Good. Can push it with pace? Good. Has problems with passing? Ok whatever he'll get goals.

But Bukala notes the fact that the Michigan system was designed for the engine that was Fantili. Of course he'd succeed and rack up the points. Let's see him in a different system. On the the national squad he showed that he is a humble hard working player. He is what he's proven to be: A relentless workhorse that wants to do whatever it takes to win. A selfless player who brings the intensity.

I'm sure Carlsson has the same drive and desire but shows it in a more tactical approach. But Bukala is absolutely right in the outlook that Carlsson will be more of an assist man than Fantili being the scoring man. Getzlaf had a pretty good career as an assist man. Maybe Gaucher will be the Perry type.

What kind of top-6 player do the Ducks need right now? Whoever the Ducks choose will reveal exactly what type of team Verbeek wants. And like many of you have pointed out, PVB claims he wants grit and toughness but can he resist the pure offensive talent that Michkov promises?

And what does it say that a major national program that wants to win championships was OK with doing this with an 18 year old in his draft year

 

[Arthuros]

Man, I just want this draft to be over with.

Then we can end the annoying discussions about who we should pick and replace them with annoying discussions about who we should have picked.

 

[Leonardo87]

Man, I just want this draft to be over with.

Then we can end the annoying discussions about who we should pick and replace them with annoying discussions about who we should have picked.

Two more days.

 

[nbducksfan19]

Again i think there is alot of overthinking taking place, as an 18 year old in his draft year he was the best player in college hockey playing against older players, he hasn't even grown into his body yet. this guy has a chance to be a game changing mean physical power center which are almost impossible to ever get, so if you pass on him you better be right

That may be true, but Larsson season was pretty darn impressive as well. He had 3rd most playoff points and 5th most Regular season All-Time for draft eligible players in SHL history.

Not bad for a guy who is 6’3 and still growing into his body. I only say that because you mentioned it For Fantilli, but I think Carlsson has much more filling out to do. Seeing them next to each other Carlsson is clearly a couple inches taller with a bigger frame, but they weigh the same.

Oh and Michov, and to a lesser extent Smith, have some pretty historic distinctions too.

 

[Goose of Reason]

 

[Leonardo87]

Two days before the draft, lets add more wood to the fire, lol.

 

[tomd]

Two days before the draft, lets add more wood to the fire, lol.

Funny that there is building hype about Carlsson to the Ducks and Columbus wanting Smith. Seems like a lot of late deception to me. Would be funny if Fantilli dropped to 4 or 5.