2023 Draft Discussion

[Frk It]

To back this idea up with something tangible.
In his 18 year old season Danielson averaged 1.14 PPG.

In the last 10 Drafts there have been 49 forwards drafted in the top 15 picks that also played in the CHL.

Of those 49 forwards. 45 of them had atleast one year with a higher PPG then Danielson by the end of their 18 year old CHL season.

The 4 guys who did not surpass his Points per game?
Jake Virtanen, Zach Senshyn, Ty Dellandrea and Jake DeBrusk.
Also Logan Brown and Conor Geekie just barely had a higher PPG season.

Not the most ideal company…

How many of those guys led their team in points and played on a bottom 5 team that only scored 212 goals?

Or are we not allowed to apply context?

 

[WingsToPick4th]

Maybe Danielsons production took a hit due to his teammates, but you gotta be crazy to take him over Leonard/Benson at 9OA, wait till 17 to get Yager or Stenberg for your C and grab Danny Nelson/Sawchyn/Edstrom with our 2nds

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I don’t think Danielson has produced enough to be considered a guy with enough upside for #9.

I’m not solely after production. Many big producers are flawed and bust.

But players who fail to produce at the CHL level is an enormous red flag. That is an easy litmus test on who not to draft.

He is above point per game on a pretty bad team for two straight seasons. I think his teammates at that level cost him more offense than anything else.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Maybe Danielsons production took a hit due to his teammates, but you gotta be crazy to take him over Leonard/Benson at 9OA, wait till 17 to get Yager or Stenberg for your C and grab Danny Nelson/Sawchyn/Edstrom with our 2nds

Leonard sure, I don't think he is around for our pick. I take him before most of the guys we have been discussing lately.

 

[Holden Caufield]

How many of those guys led their team in points and played on a bottom 5 team that only scored 212 goals?

Or are we not allowed to apply context?

You can apply any extra filters you would like, Why would you not be allowed ?
It’s only one raw data point. Maybe he is an outlier for any number of reasons. Just pointing out no star players have gotten past this simple filter in 10 years.

 

[Hobnobs]

Maybe Danielsons production took a hit due to his teammates, but you gotta be crazy to take him over Leonard/Benson at 9OA, wait till 17 to get Yager or Stenberg for your C and grab Danny Nelson/Sawchyn/Edstrom with our 2nds

I actually hope we get a shot at Bonk.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Maybe Danielsons production took a hit due to his teammates, but you gotta be crazy to take him over Leonard/Benson at 9OA, wait till 17 to get Yager or Stenberg for your C and grab Danny Nelson/Sawchyn/Edstrom with our 2nds

Pronman’s most recent mock draft has Leonard at #6, Danielson going #7 and Benson going #17.

 

[Hobnobs]

Pronman’s most recent mock draft has Leonard at #6, Danielson going #7 and Benson going #17.

I hope Reinbacher drops to us but I dont see it happening and Im not really amped up about 8-10 guys with the exception of maybe Honzek. Pellikka is intriguing to me. And I hope Danielson falls to us at 17 but I doubt it.

 

[Vector Cereal]

I suspect the reason Danielson is an outlier is because of how quickly the cycle of contender to rebuild occurs in the CHL. Teams that get players of his calibre at a high minor hockey draft pick almost always have loaded up on picks and young talent to build around their star. Danielson didn’t get that, but maybe someone who follows the WHL more can comment on if A) the Wheat Kings will be good next year or B) if they’re likely to trade Danielson to a contender.

 

[lhsgolf19]

NHL Mock Draft 2.0: Leo Carlsson rising after strong play at Worlds

Corey Pronman makes his second attempt at predicting how the first round of the 2023 NHL Entry Draft will play out.

theathletic.com

9. Detroit: Dalibor Dvorsky, C, Aik (SWEDEN-2)​

Dvorsky, Danielson, Tom Willander and Samuel Honzek all strike me as Detroit types at No. 9 and if Michkov got this late in the draft I think the Wings would be likely to pull that trigger. Dvorsky and Willander especially strike me as types who would appeal to them given their high compete levels.

17. Detroit (via NY Islanders): Zach Benson, LW, Winnipeg (WHL)​

Trying to figure out Benson’s landing spot is a bit of a difficult task. At No. 17 he would make for an excellent second first-round pick for Detroit, with a gamble on his high-end skill, IQ and motor. I’m guessing he goes closer to No. 15 than No. 10, where I think most projections have him now. I also think Detroit will look hard at Colby Barlow here or Simashev if he got to No. 17.

Yes Please

 

[lilidk]

Wonder what kind of crime did Benson commit so he got moved to number 17. We get lucky if he is available at 9, let alone 17

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

You can apply any extra filters you would like, Why would you not be allowed ?
It’s only one raw data point. Maybe he is an outlier for any number of reasons. Just pointing out no star players have gotten past this simple filter in 10 years.

We aren't getting a star player at 9. Get over it already.

 

[WingsToPick4th]

NHL Mock Draft 2.0: Leo Carlsson rising after strong play at Worlds

Corey Pronman makes his second attempt at predicting how the first round of the 2023 NHL Entry Draft will play out.

theathletic.com

9. Detroit: Dalibor Dvorsky, C, Aik (SWEDEN-2)​

Dvorsky, Danielson, Tom Willander and Samuel Honzek all strike me as Detroit types at No. 9 and if Michkov got this late in the draft I think the Wings would be likely to pull that trigger. Dvorsky and Willander especially strike me as types who would appeal to them given their high compete levels.

17. Detroit (via NY Islanders): Zach Benson, LW, Winnipeg (WHL)​

Trying to figure out Benson’s landing spot is a bit of a difficult task. At No. 17 he would make for an excellent second first-round pick for Detroit, with a gamble on his high-end skill, IQ and motor. I’m guessing he goes closer to No. 15 than No. 10, where I think most projections have him now. I also think Detroit will look hard at Colby Barlow here or Simashev if he got to No. 17.

Yes Please

This would be a dream come true. They're likely both gone by these respective slots lol

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I hope Reinbacher drops to us but I dont see it happening and Im not really amped up about 8-10 guys with the exception of maybe Honzek. Pellikka is intriguing to me. And I hope Danielson falls to us at 17 but I doubt it.

In the latest mock Reinbacher was going #5. I think the last time the first defenseman was pickedoutside of the top 10 was either 1983 or 1984. I haven't looked to see when the first defenseman picked in the draft went #5 to 10.

Defensemen that can skate realgud, pass realgud, think the game realgud and play big minutes don't last very long in the draft. There's a reason why guys like Sanderson and Seider were big draft day risers. I would be completely shocked if Reinbacher wasn't that guy this year. (Plus I think I have a bet with Frk It for an avatar)

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

We aren't getting a star player at 9. Get over it already.

Maybe.

I tend to think that the #5 to #15 guys in this year's draft aren't as strong as originally advertised overall, there are a few players I think have solid NHL comparables and almost surefire top 6 potential as 60+ point forwards and a 35+ point defenseman.

Leonard
Dvorsky
Reinbacher
Danielson

I'm also pretty high on Brindley, Willander, Edstrom, Ziemer, Stennberg, Yager as at least middle of the lineup guys. Then others like Stramel, Isac Born (watch for him to be a Hakan pick) I think are sure bet bottom 6ers.

If the Wings can nab one of the first group, one of the second group and hit on at least one of their 2nd round or later picks I will be happy with this draft.

 

[Hobnobs]

In the latest mock Reinbacher was going #5. I think the last time the first defenseman was pickedoutside of the top 10 was either 1983 or 1984. I haven't looked to see when the first defenseman picked in the draft went #5 to 10.

Defensemen that can skate realgud, pass realgud, think the game realgud and play big minutes don't last very long in the draft. There's a reason why guys like Sanderson and Seider were big draft day risers. I would be completely shocked if Reinbacher wasn't that guy this year. (Plus I think I have a bet with Frk It for an avatar)

Yea, I know. Would just be awesome to have a another D like him in the system. As for realistic picks, I guess we will get

Pellikka (if going D route) or Moore at 9th
At 17, I don't know, Bonk and Ritchie would be reaches but I also think a lot of good players like Wood or Perreault will be gone by then. Maybe Honzek is still around but I doubt it. Soooo... Benson? Or Stenberg, Im probably highest on him.

 

[Holden Caufield]

We aren't getting a star player at 9. Get over it already.

Dougie Hamilton, Jacob Trouba, Bo Horvat, Nikolaj Ehlers, Timu Meier, Mikhail Sergachev, Trevor Zegras and Dylan Guenther.

8 of the last 12 players drafted at #9.
Just a 66% hit rate. Savoie remains undecided and could move that number north of 70%.
But yeah… Not in a million years.

You always swing for the high upside profiles.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Yea, I know. Would just be awesome to have a another D like him in the system. As for realistic picks, I guess we will get

Pellikka (if going D route) or Moore at 9th
At 17, I don't know, Bonk and Ritchie would be reaches but I also think a lot of good players like Wood or Perreault will be gone by then. Maybe Honzek is still around but I doubt it. Soooo... Benson? Or Stenberg, Im probably highest on him.

Well, since I made a list of the guys I think have safer potential I might as well make one of the riskier picks...

Wood - skating
Perreault - skating and size
Benson - skating and size
Cristall - skating and size
Perron - skating and size
ASP - size and compete
Honzek - sounds like Hronek and that triggers my PTSD
Haltunnen - compete and IQ
Sale - compete
Musty - rhymes with busty and we all know if you can work bust into their name easily they'll bust

I'm not saying they're bad prospects but they definitely need more evaluation. Benson and possibly Perreault appear to have the highest potential to be top 6ers of the bunch though. Sale appears way too boom or bust for me. Started out the year hot and high on lists and just dropped from November on.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Dougie Hamilton, Jacob Trouba, Bo Horvat, Nikolaj Ehlers, Timu Meier, Mikhail Sergachev, Trevor Zegras and Dylan Guenther.

8 of the last 12 players drafted at #9.
Just a 66% hit rate. Savoie remains undecided and could move that number north of 70%.
But yeah… Not in a million years.

You always swing for the high upside profiles.

Outside of Savoie, all of the players you mentioned were all guys that people thought were "high floor low ceiling" players. I also don't think any of them had skating concerns.

 

[Electric Eric]

NHL Mock Draft 2.0: Leo Carlsson rising after strong play at Worlds

Corey Pronman makes his second attempt at predicting how the first round of the 2023 NHL Entry Draft will play out.

theathletic.com

9. Detroit: Dalibor Dvorsky, C, Aik (SWEDEN-2)​

Dvorsky, Danielson, Tom Willander and Samuel Honzek all strike me as Detroit types at No. 9 and if Michkov got this late in the draft I think the Wings would be likely to pull that trigger. Dvorsky and Willander especially strike me as types who would appeal to them given their high compete levels.

17. Detroit (via NY Islanders): Zach Benson, LW, Winnipeg (WHL)​

Trying to figure out Benson’s landing spot is a bit of a difficult task. At No. 17 he would make for an excellent second first-round pick for Detroit, with a gamble on his high-end skill, IQ and motor. I’m guessing he goes closer to No. 15 than No. 10, where I think most projections have him now. I also think Detroit will look hard at Colby Barlow here or Simashev if he got to No. 17.

Yes Please

Given the choice I’d swap Benson with Moore, but I won’t be mad at all if that’s how it shakes out.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Outside of Savoie, all of the players you mentioned were all guys that people thought were "high floor low ceiling" players. I also don't think any of them had skating concerns.

This is revisionist history. Nobody thought Zegras or Ehlers were high floor low ceiling players.

 

[jkutswings]

Dougie Hamilton, Jacob Trouba, Bo Horvat, Nikolaj Ehlers, Timu Meier, Mikhail Sergachev, Trevor Zegras and Dylan Guenther.

8 of the last 12 players drafted at #9.
Just a 66% hit rate. Savoie remains undecided and could move that number north of 70%.
But yeah… Not in a million years.

You always swing for the high upside profiles.

I think people have wide variations in defining a star. I don't see a single one on your list, unless Zegras grows into one.

Good players, no doubt. But when I think star, I think borderline household name that's regularly amongst the top at his position.

 

[Holden Caufield]

This is revisionist history. Nobody thought Zegras or Ehlers were high floor low ceiling players.

They were all high ceiling home run type picks with elite draft year production. Except Horvat.

Guenther was the definition of a home run swing. Major injury caused him to miss most of draft year. But he profiled as a phenom as young as 14. And was averaging 2 points per game as a 17 year old before the injury.

 

[Hobnobs]

Well, since I made a list of the guys I think have safer potential I might as well make one of the riskier picks...

Wood - skating
Perreault - skating and size
Benson - skating and size
Cristall - skating and size
Perron - skating and size
ASP - size and compete
Honzek - sounds like Hronek and that triggers my PTSD
Haltunnen - compete and IQ
Sale - compete
Musty - rhymes with busty and we all know if you can work bust into their name easily they'll bust

I'm not saying they're bad prospects but they definitely need more evaluation. Benson and possibly Perreault appear to have the highest potential to be top 6ers of the bunch though. Sale appears way too boom or bust for me. Started out the year hot and high on lists and just dropped from November on.

This looks like sound reasoning to me. Except Ill say that I think Honzek might cure our PTSD

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

They were all high ceiling home run type picks with elite draft year production. Except Horvat.

Guenther was the definition of a home run swing. Major injury caused him to miss most of draft year. But he profiled as a phenom as young as 14. And was averaging 2 points per game as a 17 year old before the injury.

That was the COVID year for Guenther, not an injury. His team played 23 games and he was in 12 of them. The dude was also over a point per game in his D-1 year so there was more of a record of performance than a guy like Brett Connolly.