2023 Draft Discussion

[Frk It]

I'm also pretty high on Brindley, Willander, Edstrom, Ziemer, Stennberg, Yager as at least middle of the lineup guys. Then others like Stramel, Isac Born (watch for him to be a Hakan pick) I think are sure bet bottom 6ers.

I can't figure out why Ziemmer isn't ranked higher or discussed more.

He gives you some of the same things as Leonard. As far as being a plus scorer who plays with some physicality. I start to like him a lot around the ~#20 or so spot in this draft, but I almost never see him ranked that high.

He is another guy I think would be a great fit with what we already have.

 

[Reddwit]

Leonard sure, I don't think he is around for our pick. I take him before most of the guys we have been discussing lately.

Well that’s why there’s been little discussion on Leonard lately - no one thinks he’ll be around when we pick. Which he likely won’t unless someone goes off board or 3 dmen are taken before our pick.

I actually hope we get a shot at Bonk.

He could easily be there in the early 40s.

 

[Indrid Cold]

So who's the highest upside player likely to be around at #9 and #17?

Gotta take them.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I can't figure out why Ziemmer isn't ranked higher or discussed more.

He gives you some of the same things as Leonard. As far as being a plus scorer who plays with some physicality. I start to like him a lot around the ~#20 or so spot in this draft, but I almost never see him ranked that high.

He is another guy I think would be a great fit with what we already have.

I love the attitude and smarts but his skating and on-puck skills aren't what I would call high end. His boots are heavy but the compete and smarts are great.

 

[lilidk]

So who's the highest upside player likely to be around at #9 and #17?

Gotta take them.

At 9 it's Wood.If he improve his first step and I believe he will , up to first line center

 

[Indrid Cold]

At 9 it's Wood.If he improve his first step and I believe he will , up to first line center

I hear Wood and all I think about is the NJ Devils player Miles Wood, who scares me away from the name.

 

[Reddwit]

We aren't getting a star player at 9. Get over it already.

Define star. We got Larkin at 15. Guenther is looking like a stud, taken at 9. Zegras has Larkin+ potential, taken at 9. Sergachev is a stud, taken at 9. Meier was taken at 9, Rantanen at 10. Horvat at 9, Trouba at 9, Dougie Hamilton at 9…No, you likely aren’t getting a Mackinnon at 9, but you can get 1st line forwards and top pairing defenseman at 9.

 

[Holden Caufield]

Define star. We got Larkin at 15. Guenther is looking like a stud, taken at 9. Zegras has Larkin+ potential, taken at 9. Sergachev is a stud, taken at 9. Meier was taken at 9, Rantanen at 10. Horvat at 9, Trouba at 9, Dougie Hamilton at 9…No, you likely aren’t getting a Mackinnon at 9, but you can get 1st line forwards and top pairing defenseman at 9.

The analytics crowds loves this draft class.
hockeyprospecting.com writer is projecting a record number of star players from this draft.

 

[Holden Caufield]

So who's the highest upside player likely to be around at #9 and #17?

Gotta take them.

Very subjective.

I would say if you want to step up to the plate, point out to the left field bleachers, and call your shot. Then swing from the boots….

Wood, Perrault or Benson are pure upside picks at 9.

But, Musty or Gulyayev would be the equivalent at 17.

 

[Reddwit]

In the latest mock Reinbacher was going #5. I think the last time the first defenseman was pickedoutside of the top 10 was either 1983 or 1984. I haven't looked to see when the first defenseman picked in the draft went #5 to 10.

Defensemen that can skate realgud, pass realgud, think the game realgud and play big minutes don't last very long in the draft. There's a reason why guys like Sanderson and Seider were big draft day risers. I would be completely shocked if Reinbacher wasn't that guy this year. (Plus I think I have a bet with Frk It for an avatar)

The last defenseman to be taken first outside the top 5 was literally a generation ago, 20 years, when Suter was taken first at 7 in the 2003 draft. And there are only a handful of cases in that time when a dman was taken first at 5. It’s typically in the top 1-4 that the first defenseman is drafted.

The furthest I see Reinbacher dropping is 7th, if Michkov doesn’t drop further. You’ve got Smith, Michkov, Fantilli, Bedard and Carlsson who are all pretty clearly BPA before Reinbacher, then you’ve got Leonard who, due to his complete game, is arguably on par with Reinbacher as BPA - it could go either way. But after that I think most teams probably view Reinbacher as BPA over the likes of Benson and Dvorsky, et al. Yeah, this year is forward heavy and there are questions about Reinbacher’s true ceiling, but I think it’s more likely that a team at 6 or 7 sees Reinbacher as BPA.

 

[ZDH]

Hopefully no defense with our 2 firsts. We need more forwards with upside, our D is in great shape moving forward.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

The last defenseman to be taken first outside the top 5 was literally a generation ago, 20 years, when Suter was taken first at 7 in the 2003 draft. And there are only a handful of cases in that time when a dman was taken first at 5. It’s typically in the top 1-4 that the first defenseman is drafted.

The furthest I see Reinbacher dropping is 7th, if Michkov doesn’t drop further. You’ve got Smith, Michkov, Fantilli, Bedard and Carlsson who are all pretty clearly BPA before Reinbacher, then you’ve got Leonard who, due to his complete game, is arguably on par with Reinbacher as BPA - it could go either way. But after that I think most teams probably view Reinbacher as BPA over the likes of Benson and Dvorsky, et al. Yeah, this year is forward heavy and there are questions about Reinbacher’s true ceiling, but I think it’s more likely that a team at 6 or 7 sees Reinbacher as BPA.

Thanks for digging up that info. The 2003 draft, a super deep draft, was the last to see a defenseman go so late in the top 10.

I also agree that Reinbacher goes to one of Montreal, Arizona or Philadelphia.

Montreal has LD but nobody in their prospect pool that I would ever consider a true top pair guy like Reinbacher.

Arizona is...well...Arizona. They need every player in this draft.

Keith Jones was on record stating that they need to go heavy on D. Their prospect pool is pretty light at the moment, and while I think that Leonard is THE Philadelphia prototype in the modern NHL, Reinbacher would probably be the best choice for them this year.

 

[Murmansk16A]

The analytics crowds loves this draft class.
hockeyprospecting.com writer is projecting a record number of star players from this draft.

What is an "equivalency"?

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Define star. We got Larkin at 15. Guenther is looking like a stud, taken at 9. Zegras has Larkin+ potential, taken at 9. Sergachev is a stud, taken at 9. Meier was taken at 9, Rantanen at 10. Horvat at 9, Trouba at 9, Dougie Hamilton at 9…No, you likely aren’t getting a Mackinnon at 9, but you can get 1st line forwards and top pairing defenseman at 9.

Cool, call me when we get one

 

[lilidk]

Cool, call me when we get one

It will take some time to see and then he will not remember your request

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

To back this idea up with something tangible.
In his 18 year old season Danielson averaged 1.14 PPG.

In the last 10 Drafts there have been 49 forwards drafted in the top 15 picks that also played in the CHL.

Of those 49 forwards. 45 of them had atleast one year with a higher PPG then Danielson by the end of their 18 year old CHL season.

The 4 guys who did not surpass his Points per game?
Jake Virtanen, Zach Senshyn, Ty Dellandrea and Jake DeBrusk.
Also Logan Brown and Conor Geekie just barely had a higher PPG season.

Not the most ideal company…

If my memory serves me right, most of the guys sans Dellandrea played on good CHL teams. Brandon was not a good team.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

The analytics crowds loves this draft class.
hockeyprospecting.com writer is projecting a record number of star players from this draft.

How much was scoring up in Canadian and US juniors in comparison to previous years? It's a really bad year for North American defensemen and goalies.

 

[Run the Jewels]

What do people think about trying to move up and swap picks with Arizona? The general idea here is you trade up to get either Reinbacher, Leonard or Michkov. One of them should still be available at 6, but they will all likely be gone by the time we pick.

Does this make any sense? If any team is open to a trade, my guess is Arizona would be the one to target.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

I can't figure out why Ziemmer isn't ranked higher or discussed more.

Skating

 

[Holden Caufield]

What is an "equivalency"?

Check out Hockey prospecting.com for by the book definition.
Basically they have a model that converts any player (in any league) to what their point production equivalency would have been had they actually been playing an 82 game season in the NHL.

If my memory serves me right, most of the guys sans Dellandrea played on good CHL teams. Brandon was not a good team.

I was more pointing out that it is rare for players with low CHL production to go top 15 to begin with (4 in 10 years). Just turned out they also haven’t panned out.

Digging into how bad teams hinder production would be a lot of data analysis.
But Cristall and Honzek both out produced him in the WHL this year. Each of their teams were bad and scored fewer goals than Brandon.

How much was scoring up in Canadian and US juniors in comparison to previous years? It's a really bad year for North American defensemen and goalies.

I don’t know anything about that. Does seem like some very good offensive numbers from prospects this year though.

 

[lilidk]

What do people think about trying to move up and swap picks with Arizona? The general idea here is you trade up to get either Reinbacher, Leonard or Michkov. One of them should still be available at 6, but they will all likely be gone by the time we pick.

Does this make any sense? If any team is open to a trade, my guess is Arizona would be the one to target.

Pick 6 isn't much better than pick 9 and It will cost you entire second round+#9.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

What do people think about trying to move up and swap picks with Arizona? The general idea here is you trade up to get either Reinbacher, Leonard or Michkov. One of them should still be available at 6, but they will all likely be gone by the time we pick.

Does this make any sense? If any team is open to a trade, my guess is Arizona would be the one to target.

I don't think Arizona moves that pick. Reinbacher for them.

 

[Roomba With a Bauer]

What do people think about trying to move up and swap picks with Arizona? The general idea here is you trade up to get either Reinbacher, Leonard or Michkov. One of them should still be available at 6, but they will all likely be gone by the time we pick.

Does this make any sense? If any team is open to a trade, my guess is Arizona would be the one to target.

If we try to move up we may as well go to 4 and hope Carlsson is there.

 

[lilidk]

I don't think Arizona moves that pick. Reinbacher for them.

I hope Reinbacher for them

 

[Pavels Dog]

Does this make any sense? If any team is open to a trade, my guess is Arizona would be the one to target.

Who knows what Arizona is thinking, but given their wealth of 2nd/3rd round picks in this and coming drafts I feel they should be looking more at moving up than moving down.