Rumor: 2023-24 Trade Rumors and Free Agency: Season Thread

[Colorado Avalanche]

I wouldn’t say the main boards are a great source for value.


Sure it would have been a bad contract eventually. Manson is a bad contract now.

Agree on that. Manson no good. Too unreliable. Like the player though.

 

[henchman21]

It’s worth considering that there’s a certain amount of bias and mimicry due to how the actions of GMs are interpreted.

When Chiarot gets traded for a 1st, a bias is created that D like him are valued by GMs (no matter how ineffective he may be).

People miss why specific types of RD get high returns at specific times… it is because they are plying well AND the are rentals. Teams aren’t tied into contracts and they can get a guy who is playing well then. You don’t see these guys with 3-4 years getting moved because nobody wants to pay for that contract risk.

 

[Muffin]

Advanced stats are back on the menu boys.

Matches the eye test too. No matter how good Girard looks skating the puck out of the zone he's going to have limitations defending due to his size. Now that he's completely off the PP he's just not worth his contract. You can't be paying a small defenseman that's not even on the PP that kind of money.

 

[Richard88]

People miss why specific types of RD get high returns at specific times… it is because they are plying well AND the are rentals. Teams aren’t tied into contracts and they can get a guy who is playing well then. You don’t see these guys with 3-4 years getting moved because nobody wants to pay for that contract risk.

Manson with 2 years left and lower salary than caphit the last 2 years (i.e. $4m and $1m SB+$2.5m) isn't exactly a huge commitment or risk. If EJ can get a $3.25m x1 contract playing the way he did last year then presumably Manson would still have some interest too (albeit maybe you still have to add something to sweeten the pot).

 

[Foppberg]

Let's just hope that Wood isn't done. This signing screams bad long term UFA contract where the player doesn't even have 1 good year left. We've seen it plenty of times before with other teams.

If that happens that's extremely bad pro scouting because there were tons of redflags.

What happened to Wood?

 

[henchman21]

Manson with 2 years left and lower salary than caphit the last 2 years (i.e. $4m and $1m SB+$2.5m) isn't exactly a huge commitment or risk. If EJ can get a $3.25m x1 contract playing the way he did last year then presumably Manson would still have some interest too (albeit maybe you still have to add something to sweeten the pot).

EJ got 3.25m because it was 1 year and Buffalo has miles of cap room this season. On a 2 year deal, he's not getting that. On Manson, the cap is still tight and his NTC can easily block you from moving him to teams with the room.

 

[henchman21]

What happened to Wood?

He has a pretty major hip surgery that has limited his physical gifts and as a guy who hasn't been the highest of IQ or most sound defensively players, when the physical gifts go... sometimes the play unravels. With his hip he's recovered his straight ahead speed quite well, but he takes a couple steps to really get moving and he isn't very agile. He's basically a freight train... slow to get going, but oh my when he does he can move... and then hit like a ton of bricks. Which will be a late hit and be a penalty.

If you want a rant about it though... check out this gem from a Jersey blog.

What is the Matter with Miles Wood

New Jersey Devils winger Miles Wood is at a pivotal point in his career as he could hit unrestricted free agency in the summer. Wood’s season has not been that good so far. This post goes into the limited nature of Wood’s game as the source of what’s the matter with him.

www.allaboutthejersey.com

 

[The Abusement Park]

Matches the eye test too. No matter how good Girard looks skating the puck out of the zone he's going to have limitations defending due to his size. Now that he's completely off the PP he's just not worth his contract. You can't be paying a small defenseman that's not even on the PP that kind of money.

I just find the inconsistencies with advanced stats funny. People complain about them all the time just to use them when it says what they want.

 

[Balthazar]

He has a pretty major hip surgery that has limited his physical gifts and as a guy who hasn't been the highest of IQ or most sound defensively players, when the physical gifts go... sometimes the play unravels. With his hip he's recovered his straight ahead speed quite well, but he takes a couple steps to really get moving and he isn't very agile. He's basically a freight train... slow to get going, but oh my when he does he can move... and then hit like a ton of bricks. Which will be a late hit and be a penalty.

If you want a rant about it though... check out this gem from a Jersey blog.

What is the Matter with Miles Wood

New Jersey Devils winger Miles Wood is at a pivotal point in his career as he could hit unrestricted free agency in the summer. Wood’s season has not been that good so far. This post goes into the limited nature of Wood’s game as the source of what’s the matter with him.

www.allaboutthejersey.com

It really sounds like the Avs looked at 2 years old pro scouting notes to make the decision of signing him long term this summer.

Remember when Andrew Ladd signed for 7 years in Long Island and had nothing left in the tank? It's still early but right now the Wood contract looks like a cheaper version of the Ladd contract.

 

[Muffin]

I just find the inconsistencies with advanced stats funny. People complain about them all the time just to use them when it says what they want.

I mean the ironic part about using advanced stats to compare Manson and Girard is that Girard should be the one benefitting from advanced stats versus Manson and somehow that's not even the case.

 

[Balthazar]

@The Mars Volchenkov didn't mention it but Byram on the wrong side is why he got injured at the end and why the Avs allowed goal #4.

Avalanche Preseason Game 6 Plus/Minus: MacKinnon Ready, Chemistry Lacking

As with every game, you take the good with the bad, so time to take a look at the pluses and the minuses in the game against the Golden Knights for the Avalanche. + Sam Girard Whenever I write about Sam Girard, things get a little heated. The fanbase is pretty divided on him. Through […]

coloradohockeynow.com

 

[Avs_19]

On today's pod Friedman once again mentions there's no lack of trying from the Avs and Toews but it's going to be a very hard deal to do unless one side budges on the term.

 

[henchman21]

I think it was @tigervixxxen who said it would be Kadri all over again. If this ends up another 5 year vs 7 year term battle, like it was with Kadri. She's spot on.

For the life of me though, I don't get the huge care from the Avs on the 6th and 7th year. You need the cap space today, so saving a cap hit now means more than 6 years from now. I'd much, much rather have 7.5m for 8 years than 9 million for 5 years. That 1.5m in extra cap space would be very useful just at the cost of when MacK is 35 we don't have the greatest team. Hate this mindset. Worry about the next 1-4 years more than anything else.

 

[Balthazar]

On today's pod Friedman once again mentions there's no lack of trying from the Avs and Toews but it's going to be a very hard deal to do unless one side budges on the term.

It won't happen then.

The Avs can't compensate less term with a higher AAV and Toews will understandably be looking to get the most money out of that contract.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I think it was @tigervixxxen who said it would be Kadri all over again. If this ends up another 5 year vs 7 year term battle, like it was with Kadri. She's spot on.

For the life of me though, I don't get the huge care from the Avs on the 6th and 7th year. You need the cap space today, so saving a cap hit now means more than 6 years from now. I'd much, much rather have 7.5m for 8 years than 9 million for 5 years. That 1.5m in extra cap space would be very useful just at the cost of when MacK is 35 we don't have the greatest team. Hate this mindset. Worry about the next 1-4 years more than anything else.

If you can go 8 with Nuke there’s zero reason to not go 8 years with Toews.

I mean the ironic part about using advanced stats to compare Manson and Girard is that Girard should be the one benefitting from advanced stats versus Manson and somehow that's not even the case.

Why should Girard benefit from advanced stats but Manson shouldn’t?

 

[henchman21]

If you can go 8 with Nuke there’s zero reason to not go 8 years with Toews.

Nuke (and Landy) had to go to the wire to get that term. So I wouldn't say the Avs were that willing to go there, they just budged at the end. Toews may have to do the same if he wants 8.

I 100% agree in principal though. Just find the dollar amount that works over 8 years. Keep the cap hit as low as possible, deal with the issues 6 years from now then.

 

[Richard88]

I think it was @tigervixxxen who said it would be Kadri all over again. If this ends up another 5 year vs 7 year term battle, like it was with Kadri. She's spot on.

For the life of me though, I don't get the huge care from the Avs on the 6th and 7th year. You need the cap space today, so saving a cap hit now means more than 6 years from now. I'd much, much rather have 7.5m for 8 years than 9 million for 5 years. That 1.5m in extra cap space would be very useful just at the cost of when MacK is 35 we don't have the greatest team. Hate this mindset. Worry about the next 1-4 years more than anything else.

CMac is probably just holding on to his biggest bargaining chip (i.e. 7-8 years) until the right time to play it. It would be surprising if he ultimately draws the line at 5 years and doesn't budge.

 

[Balthazar]

If you can go 8 with Nuke there’s zero reason to not go 8 years with Toews.

Nuke's 8 years: age 27 to 35
Toews' 8 years: age 30 to 38

No team wants 35+ players making big money

 

[sethro109]

Girard is more than a 3rd pairing guy. Bednar has always used him A LOT more than that. His use of Bo and G is always very situational. He's going to have more ice time than any other 3rd pairing defenseman.

 

[henchman21]

CMac is probably just holding on to his biggest bargaining chip (i.e. 7-8 years) until the right time to play it. It would be surprising if he ultimately draws the line at 5 years and doesn't budge.

I don't know... we've seen the line drawn before. I think it would be dumb to not utilize the term to lower the AAV personally.

 

[Mighty Makar]

I hope I’m wrong, but this could very well be Toews’ last year with the Avs.

 

[Balthazar]

I don't know... we've seen the line drawn before. I think it would be dumb to not utilize the term to lower the AAV personally.

The way you worded it is like they'd do higher AAV for less term. They won't do that.

 

[thedoctor]

I hope I’m wrong, but this could very well be Toews’ last year with the Avs.

If he won't accept a number in the 6-7m range (whatever the term is), it absolutely is

 

[Balthazar]

If he won't accept a number in the 6-7m range (whatever the term is), it absolutely is

and a max of 5 years.

 

[henchman21]

The way you worded it is like they'd do higher AAV for less term. They won't do that.

To sign him they’ll have to.