2023-24 Roster Thread #9: Spring time is upon us

[freakydallas13]

With this logic you, would never keep anyone.

Yes, many players in the league — in fact, almost all of them — are more valuable to their current team than their return would be in a trade.

And yet it still makes sense to trade some players even if their value to their current team is more than their return would be in a trade. Konecny is one of those cases.

 

[ponder719]

for a final year rebuild team your lineup looks very much like the same ol same ol..

so much so thats prolly what the Flyers will do.

#sameolOrange

Of course, I don't happen to believe this is the final year of a rebuild; given how far we've kicked the can down the road, I think it's closer to the first year. We need to get garbage salary off the cap, get younger, leverage our retention slots if we can afford it, and get our prospects another year closer to ready, and I don't believe we're going to make a ton of moves to get there. Two or three impactful trades are about the best we can hope for; we're not going to dump 15 people in one offseason.

 

[orangey]

And yet it still makes sense to trade some players even if their value to their current team is more than their return would be in a trade. Konecny is one of those cases.

Set a high price and if some damn fool meets it then trade for the future window. The same thing they should have been doing for the last two years with other marketable assets. This isn't exactly rocket science.

Instead they will keep him and everyone else they can - while still pleasing their backwards coach - so they can just make the playoffs and make some more money. Same as it ever was. Rebuilding, let alone seriously contending, is never going to happen here. 20 years from now we will be having the same conversation. If any of us can still stand to pay any attention to this detestable franchise.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

Realistically we shouldn't be married to a single player on this roster if there's option to improve the team. However it's entirely different situation to have confidence they'll make the right move.

 

[TheKingPin]

Everybody keeps quoting the Stars model, but I check on their board and I don’t remember the specifics but besides the 2 drafts where they got all those players, it was like only 2 or 3 NHL players drafted (including Heiskanen) the previous 7 years or whatever. In other words they drafted really poorly for a long time then hit a good luck streak.

Everybody comments on how they found all these players - but honestly, just seems like they regressed back to their mean after going years of drafting barren. I don’t think they discovered some magical secret.

These streaks often have to happen. The Rangers streak was in 3-4 high end players only wanting to play for them. The Devils streak was that somehow all their top 5 picks are actually living up to their hype, rather than some busting. If you don’t hit these streaks of trades or draft boons, you end up like the Flyers, Senators and Sabres.

The sentiment on this team is so bad because we really have had a lot of shitty luck compounded by bad leadership. Maybe the latter is resolved, but until Danny gets a little lucky too nobody will have faith. Maybe this Russian streak is our luck; who knows. Maybe he pulls off a couple of shrewd trades (already has with Walker), but more of those are needed.

The TK trade really depends on the return. If we get the Sabres 11 and Ostlund, then I’d say good bye. If we’re getting a late first and a B prospect pass. We need the assets coming back from TK to have a significant enough chance to be better than him in 5 years; even if they are just as good is a failure IMO.

The amount of bad luck this franchise has had at least since Lindros is insane. I think we will see thing even out and stop having our captains and generational players suffer career ending or altering injuries etc.

I’d really like the Buffalo pick. They need TK more than the pick and I am big fan of owing picks close together to control the board. There will definitely be top 6 or top 4 potential at both picks. If you get lucky you get your new top line with Michkov all set. Pushing down the current lines which is the recipe for success. Then you add maybe a 2nd and a strong prospect and it’s a no brainer to me.

 

[scumpup]

yea man just draft perfectly and we're chillin. I'm all in.

 

[Curufinwe]

The strange dichotomy where Konecny is so good and important to this team that you can't trade him, but also if you did try to trade him you won't get much of a return because he isn't that good.

TK could be a 90+ point player on a team that had a league average PP. The Flyers should trade him to one of those teams.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

Flyers should absolutely trade TK

But really we should trade anyone we can get a lot of value for, and some for anything we can get.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

TK could be a 90+ point player on a team that had a league average PP. The Flyers should trade him to one of those teams.

The league had 16 players with 90+ points. TK isnt in that group no matter what team you put him on.

 

[Random Forest]

The league had 16 players with 90+ points. TK isnt in that group no matter what team you put him on.

How many points do you think Mikko Rantanen gets if he were on the Flyers in Konecny’s place?

 

[Beef Invictus]

“Intangibles” and “culture” have obviously been dumb mantras of dinosaur hockey culture morons for decades, but we have absolutely passed the point where online fans have swung the pendulum way too far in the opposite direction. Yes, they are real things, and yes, there is something valuable about having some long-term continuity, tenure, respect, and leadership within your organization. You don’t have to be Brian Burke to see that all organizations, well beyond sports, benefit from those qualities.

The idea that you can deliberately build it or force it to happen transactionally like the Flyers want is total nonsense

 

[Random Forest]

The idea that you can deliberately build it or force it to happen transactionally like the Flyers want is total nonsense

I agree, which is what makes Konecny more valuable to the Flyers than he would be in a trade, all else being equal. He provides organic “culture” that isn’t artificial.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I agree, which is what makes Konecny more valuable to the Flyers than he would be in a trade, all else being equal. He provides organic “culture” that isn’t artificial.

This is true in a vacuum, and I love TK in that regard. The problem is that management really wants to micromanage culture from the top down, and the chief architect of that right now is Tortorella. So until that bum is gone forever and guys completely detached from current players give up, does it even matter?

 

[BernieParent]

In theory, perhaps. But I’m getting a little over the idea of a position being a strength if you have two or more blue chip prospects at the position. There was a time when D was a “position of strength” because we had Morin, Hagg, and Sanheim in the system.

This is a huge lament of mine, too. How could the Flyers have gone from a fantastic-looking young D corps of Provorov, Gostisbehere, Morin, Sanheim, Myers, and Hagg to a mediocre D that only retained Sanheim? This should be the topic of a Master's thesis in player evaluation and development gone horribly wrong.

I hope I am not inviting lengthy repostings of long-stale arguments about each of these players and their fates.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

How many points do you think Mikko Rantanen gets if he were on the Flyers in Konecny’s place?

Doesn't matter. TK isn't an elite player no matter what team you want to place him on.

I agree, which is what makes Konecny more valuable to the Flyers than he would be in a trade, all else being equal. He provides organic “culture” that isn’t artificial.

All TK knows is losing. How valuable is that? He will sign his comfortable contract like his BFF. Live happily ever after with zero pressure.

Makes much more sense to trade him then re-sign him. Clearly you disagree which is ok.

 

[Random Forest]

This is a huge lament of mine, too. How could the Flyers have gone from a fantastic-looking young D corps of Provorov, Gostisbehere, Morin, Sanheim, Myers, and Hagg to a mediocre D that only retained Sanheim? This should be the topic of a Master's thesis in player evaluation and development gone horribly wrong.

I hope I am not inviting lengthy repostings of long-stale arguments about each of these players and their fates.

Totally agree. I think it goes back to a few posts earlier in the thread about luck being perhaps the biggest factor. Provorov in 2015 felt a lot like a Zeev Buium-tier D prospect. I’d be ecstatic with getting Buium this year, but everyone ends up getting way too hyped about top prospects. There’s a solid chance — more likely than not — that a player like Buium never ends up being a franchise changing player, just like Provorov.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

This is a huge lament of mine, too. How could the Flyers have gone from a fantastic-looking young D corps of Provorov, Gostisbehere, Morin, Sanheim, Myers, and Hagg to a mediocre D that only retained Sanheim? This should be the topic of a Master's thesis in player evaluation and development gone horribly wrong.

I hope I am not inviting lengthy repostings of long-stale arguments about each of these players and their fates.

Morin probably wasn't a great pick, though clearly injuries hampered his career. Myers it turned out just wasnt that good.

The others ( Ivan, Ghost, Hagg) you can make an argument the development was shall we say not that great. Sanheim is fine for what he does.

 

[BernieParent]

Totally agree. I think it goes back to a few posts earlier in the thread about luck being perhaps the biggest factor. Provorov in 2015 felt a lot like a Zeev Buium-tier D prospect. I’d be ecstatic with getting Buium this year, but everyone ends up getting way too hyped about top prospects. There’s a solid chance — more likely than not — that a player like Buium never ends up being a franchise changing player, just like Provorov.

To me, this all highlights that drafting is only the first of multiple steps with even the most talented players. Okay, there are superstars who will excel despite any poor development plan, but most top-tier players still have to be fine-tuned and put in the right places to succeed. Sometimes that will be the carrot and others the stick.

I am with you on Buium or Parekh or any of the touted prospects the Flyers select. The worst response is to check the Done box on a roster spot.

 

[ponder719]

Morin probably wasn't a great pick, though clearly injuries hampered his career. Myers it turned out just wasnt that good.

The others ( Ivan, Ghost, Hagg) you can make an argument the development was shall we say not that great. Sanheim is fine for what he does.

Well, look on the bright side; as far as we could tell at the time, if Morin had come off the board befor our pick (and none of the team's top names dropped in his stead) it looks like we were going to draft Mirco Mueller with that pick.

Flyers "Flight Plan": Behind the Scenes Draft Video

From what I can tell the scouts' final order (for this episode at least) was: #1 - MacKinnon #2 - Jones #3 - Drouin #4 - Lindholm #5 - Barkov #6 - Morin #7 - Mueller #8 - Zadorov #9 - Nurse #10 - Ristolainen #11 - Monahan #12 - Morrissey #13 - Gauthier #14 - Horvat Holmgren didn't seem to agree...

forums.hfboards.com

 

[BernieParent]

Morin probably wasn't a great pick, though clearly injuries hampered his career. Myers it turned out just wasnt that good.

The others ( Ivan, Ghost, Hagg) you can make an argument the development was shall we say not that great. Sanheim is fine for what he does.

Yeah, Morin's career demise is obvious. To me, Hagg is the biggest case study in reflecting on development. He had quite the good resume come draft time and I recall many were pleased here to get him in the second round. Then, square peg meet physical defensive specialist hole.

You may well be right about Myers but I am perplexed how his game seemed to unravel in such a short time. For a brief period, he flashed the potential for a top-pairing offensively gifted player, a unicorn, and then practically forgot how to tie his skates.

 

[Beef Invictus]

It feels like they're in purgatory again. Which makes sense, because they are still doing everything the same way so the same results are to be expected.

Signing TK is defendable based on his quality as a player. On the other hand, who will he play with? Couturier is not to be banked on. Frost still looks like a 2C. There's Michkov. The defense has a Sanheim who is already 28 and will be in his mid 30s when MM is hitting his prime and there's pretty much nobody behind him. Farabee has made disgruntled noises. So, trading him as part of a real reset and rebuild to set the stage for the future with Michkov is also defendable. I strongly favor the latter, but it's not like I can also say "TK isn't worth signing." He is, but building via that path is a lot harder. It can be done! But I suspect it is above the difficulty level these people can manage.

Edit: I'm also torn because I would like something fun to watch too. Fandom Needs vs Rational Needs

 

[FlyguyOX]

Dallas being successful may be one of the worst things to happen for us.

"Hey, look, you can get a star level player with every late 1st and mid 2nd pick, too!

 

[Flyerfan4life]

It feels like they're in purgatory again. Which makes sense, because they are still doing everything the same way so the same results are to be expected.

Signing TK is defendable based on his quality as a player. On the other hand, who will he play with? Couturier is not to be banked on. Frost still looks like a 2C. There's Michkov. The defense has a Sanheim who is already 28 and will be in his mid 30s when MM is hitting his prime and there's pretty much nobody behind him. Farabee has made disgruntled noises. So, trading him as part of a real reset and rebuild to set the stage for the future with Michkov is also defendable. I strongly favor the latter, but it's not like I can also say "TK isn't worth signing." He is, but building via that path is a lot harder. It can be done! But I suspect it is above the difficulty level these people can manage.

Edit: I'm also torn because I would like something fun to watch too. Fandom Needs vs Rational Needs

you really think Frost survives the offseason here ?

 

[Beef Invictus]

Dallas being successful may be one of the worst things to happen for us.

"Hey, look, you can get a star level player with every late 1st and mid 2nd pick, too!

Right? They want to be the Islanders, and they want to get there via the Blues and Stars. You might as well try to win a Super Bowl without throwing more than a dozen passes per game.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Right? They want to be the Islanders, and they want to get there via the Blues and Stars. You might as well try to win a Super Bowl without throwing more than a dozen passes per game.

at their core the Flyers are desp. to prove you can win like you did in the 70's..

grinder face puncher hockey is the way..

everything else is not honest hockey ..

Torts and the old bois club are a match made in heaven.. imagine the circle jerks behind closed doors...talk about a closed feedback loop..